bowery4 Posted September 13, 2010 Posted September 13, 2010 Unfortunately you are 100% correct. The difference between a FG and a TD equates to about 25 yards of field position (that's a conservative estimate assuming they were facing the wind and couldn't make a 50 yarder). This fact completely negates any field position edge that a free kick might bring. Even though it's not a situation that comes up often, it's a pretty good indicator that our coach is a moron. Very troubling indeed. Of course if your main goal is to win the game instead of not lose by 10 points, going for it blows both other options out of the water. BS if it works and the bills get it back on the punt off Gaily is a genius, really. If the Bills win because of it though I don't think I am happy because then they might not change much game plan wise, going into next weeks game. I am a bit happy they lost, that's right I said it. I also don't want to see them run much shotgun with Trent the QB, that was just wack. I know it is to buy him time but it also says PASS!!! He did good out of a pro set and was confident even running play action (during the preseason). I think Chan overthunk it.
BuffOrange Posted September 13, 2010 Posted September 13, 2010 (edited) BS if it works and the bills get it back on the punt off Gaily is a genius, really. Oh great, it's hindsight guy. I've defended lots of coaching decisions that didn't work out, so don't play that card on me. You can make bad decisions in poker or blackjack and luck out yes, but they are still bad decisions. Edited September 13, 2010 by BuffOrange
billsfaninvgs Posted September 13, 2010 Posted September 13, 2010 IMHO if it worked and we won the game he would of been a genius.. Instead it didn't work and he is retarded... Damned if u do damned if u don't... He tried something he thought would give them the best chance to win the game late. Either way the game was over I would rather give them 2 and hope we get the ball back. Then give them the ball on the 1. I think Chan is a better coach then dick... Even if we go 0-16
Glory Bound Posted September 13, 2010 Posted September 13, 2010 (edited) Let's see...should we punt?...or should we go for it?...or should we take a safety? Hmmmmm?? Should I get hit over the head with a baseball bat?...or should I get poked in the eye with a stick?...nah...I'll take the kitchen knife in my shoulder blade. To all you guys questioning Gailey's decision, I just don't think it's justified. The outcome was gonna be the same...pain! Kudos to their punter for effectively dashing our hopes & sticking the dagger in our back. Edited September 13, 2010 by Enuf-is-Enuf
shrader Posted September 13, 2010 Posted September 13, 2010 The term Kobayashi Maru came to mind at that moment during the game. We are discussing two things that each had a miniscule chance of working. You can disagree with which one he chose, but it is clear that we have a coach that is thinking about the strategy options during the game. Now we just need somebody to execute them effectively. So does this mean that you approve of the Belichick cheating method?
bowery4 Posted September 13, 2010 Posted September 13, 2010 Oh great, it's hindsight guy. I've defended lots of coaching decisions that didn't work out, so don't play that card on me. You can make bad decisions in poker or blackjack and luck out yes, but they are still bad decisions. Whatever, you want to win declare your self the winner, good move, you practice law or something? I agree to disagree with you and I am damn good at poker BTW.
Benjamin Barker Posted September 13, 2010 Posted September 13, 2010 Chan is lucky the Dolphins didn't get a first down and run the clock out or he would have looked really bad. His decision is debatable, but really what is a far bigger issue is Chan's decision to play a little emo schoolgirl at QB in the first place.
Offside Number 76 Posted September 13, 2010 Posted September 13, 2010 It did work, and that's why they call it a "safety." The next offensive series is what didn't work.
MattyT Posted September 13, 2010 Posted September 13, 2010 It was the right decision in the sense that it got the Bills Defense back on the field quickly..which is where they'd prob have the best chance of scoring any points anyway.
jimmy10 Posted September 13, 2010 Posted September 13, 2010 I'm not even that much of a football expert, but within a few moments of giving up that safety, I thought about it and knew it was the right call. 4th and 10 on your goal line is suicide. It's a "close" game, you can't punt, you give up the two points, get better field position and put it on your defense to get the ball back. Which they did. But our O is too crappy to take advantage.
Brainiac72 Posted September 13, 2010 Posted September 13, 2010 If the team didn't get ANY yards on the first 3 attempts, what makes anyone think that they would have gotten 10+ yards on the 4th attempt? And if that fails, Miami gets the ball at the 1 inch line. Game over. And punting at the 1 inch line means your punter is lined-up about 2/3 of his usual depth, meaning he won't get a good punt off and similarly put the Dols' offense in a great position. if you don't believe you can get 10 yards on one play, you might as well kneel or punt becuase you aren't going to win. even trying to win is predicated on being able to get 10 yards in one play. so i agree that they should have just gone for it. odds of making 10 yards on one play are better than any of the other options, and kicking a field goal is way more likely for these guys than getting a TD drive with 30 seconds left.
CodeMonkey Posted September 13, 2010 Posted September 13, 2010 and kicking a field goal is way more likely for these guys than getting a TD drive with 30 seconds left. And we have a winner!!!!!
shrader Posted September 13, 2010 Posted September 13, 2010 It was the right decision in the sense that it got the Bills Defense back on the field quickly..which is where they'd prob have the best chance of scoring any points anyway. I'd say a Parrish punt return was the only chance they had there.
Mark Long Beach Posted September 13, 2010 Posted September 13, 2010 Regardless of what you feel would be the most successful choice for our situation at 4th & 10 from our own 1 inch line, success was not very likely. At that point we had three options. Go for it, punt or take a safety (without a play). Which longshot was going to work? shrug, it'd be a miracle either way. We'd essentially already lost the game by being at the 1" line and not being able to move off of it in the previous 3 plays. What I'm glad is that of the three options to try we did not do the one option which was significantly worse than the other two which was punt. Punting was Jauron's favorite. Arguing over which (other) longshot to take is like arguing over betting on 7 instead of 11 on the roulette table.
akm0404 Posted September 13, 2010 Posted September 13, 2010 I fail to see how completing one pass for 10 yards is LESS likely to happen than taking a safety, free kicking, holding the opponent's offense on 3 running plays with a sieve-like run defense, forcing a punt, and taking possession of the ball in similar (but perhaps slightly better) field position with 30 seconds or less on the clock with zero timeouts needing a touchdown to win. But this is the Buffalo Bills led by Trent Edwards, so really, hoping for an asteroid to strike the earth was probably a better bet than Edwards completing a 10 yard throw under pressure. Pretty much screwed either way, I suppose.
MattyT Posted September 13, 2010 Posted September 13, 2010 I fail to see how completing one pass for 10 yards is LESS likely to happen than taking a safety, free kicking, holding the opponent's offense on 3 running plays with a sieve-like run defense, forcing a punt, and taking possession of the ball in similar (but perhaps slightly better) field position with 30 seconds or less on the clock with zero timeouts needing a touchdown to win. But this is the Buffalo Bills led by Trent Edwards, so really, hoping for an asteroid to strike the earth was probably a better bet than Edwards completing a 10 yard throw under pressure. Pretty much screwed either way, I suppose. I'd prob agree if I hadn't seen Trent throw two almost certain pick-sixes (dropped fortunately).
LabattBlue Posted September 13, 2010 Posted September 13, 2010 so i agree that they should have just gone for it. odds of making 10 yards on one play are better than any of the other options, and kicking a field goal is way more likely for these guys than getting a TD drive with 30 seconds left. ...plus 80 yards to go and no timeouts!
jimmy10 Posted September 13, 2010 Posted September 13, 2010 (edited) I fail to see how completing one pass for 10 yards is LESS likely to happen than taking a safety, free kicking, holding the opponent's offense on 3 running plays with a sieve-like run defense, forcing a punt, and taking possession of the ball in similar (but perhaps slightly better) field position with 30 seconds or less on the clock with zero timeouts needing a touchdown to win. But this is the Buffalo Bills led by Trent Edwards, so really, hoping for an asteroid to strike the earth was probably a better bet than Edwards completing a 10 yard throw under pressure. Pretty much screwed either way, I suppose. And yet everything in bold happened. So if we miraculously score that touchdown, Chan's a genius and nobody bitches about it. We gave up the two points, saved clock and got the ball back with a little breathing room. We got our defense back on the field, and gave ourselves the best (if still remote) chance to win. It was the right call. An imperfect solution for an imperfect situation. Edited September 13, 2010 by jimmyo
akm0404 Posted September 13, 2010 Posted September 13, 2010 (edited) And yet everything in bold happened. So if we miraculously score that touchdown, Chan's a genius and nobody bitches about it. We gave up the two points, saved clock and got the ball back with a little breathing room. We got our defense back on the field, and gave ourselves the best (if still remote) chance to win. It was the right call. An imperfect solution for an imperfect situation. Yeah, no. The Bills got the ball back at the 20 with 30 seconds left and ZERO timeouts. All of the bolded things did happen, which was a minor miracle, and EVEN THEN, with all that going according to plan, were the Bills left with an impossible situation. Convert 4th and 10, have the ball on say the 15 yard line with 2 timeouts and 1:40 left, needing a FIELD GOAL to tie. Compare that with the series of events that needed to happen to get the Bills the ball at the 20 with 30 seconds left and no timeouts needing a TOUCHDOWN. Certainly completing one 10 yard pass can't be harder than all that other junk PLUS the extra difficulty of going 80 yards in 30 seconds with no timeouts. Think man, think Edit: Also, if the Bills were able to go down that field and score that miraculous touchdown that'd make Chan a genius, how could you think that they WOULDN'T have been able to convert one 10 yard pass, and move into field goal range with 1:40 and 2 timeouts? Certainly if Chan thought they were explosive enough to go 80 yards in 30 seconds with no timeouts, it'd be a piece of cake to complete a single 10 yard pass, and methodically move into field goal range with 1:40 and 2 timeouts. Edited September 13, 2010 by akm0404
mowisc Posted September 13, 2010 Posted September 13, 2010 Wrong - taking a safety would have been the right call only if you were trailing by 4 or 5 points. You never, and I mean never, take a safety in that situation if you are trailing by 3 or less. Its is so much easier to score a field goal than a TD, so you never intentionally put yourself in a situation where you go from just needing a field goal to tie to the case where you have to score a TD. You did not have the time to score a TD. The defense plays prevent, which does not allow for a quick TD, but does allow an offense a decent chance to move into FG range Just a horrible strategic decision there. Very troubling I agree with the call and frankly took it as a fresh of breath air that our head coach knows what the hell he is doing. Jauron would have punted, Fins would have scored, Game would have been over.
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