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Posted (edited)

That makes me very very happy. Any time you see a line that the general public thinks is a joke, too good to be true, a lock, etc., they're wrong. Vegas doesn't give away money. This will be a close game. By the way, who the heck is that is that guy? I read a lot of gambling blogs/forums, and even ameteurs know that if you see a line that looks fishy you need to do extra analysis and find out the reason for it because the oddsmakers obviously know something you don't. I've never seen someone say "I can't figure this line out...SO TAKE ADVANTAGE". It just goes against general gambling logic. I might have to follow this guy closely so I can bet the opposite of his picks every week.

Edited by berndogg
Posted

That makes me very very happy. Any time you see a line that the general public thinks is a joke, too good to be true, a lock, etc., they're wrong. Vegas doesn't give away money. This will be a close game. By the way, who the heck is that is that guy? I read a lot of gambling blogs/forums, and even ameteurs know that if you see a line that looks fishy you need to do extra analysis and find out the reason for it because the oddsmakers obviously know something you don't. I've never seen someone say "I can't figure this line out...SO TAKE ADVANTAGE". It just goes against general gambling logic. I might have to follow this guy closely so I can bet the opposite of his picks every week.

 

Man do I agree with you! :worthy:

Posted

Miami? In our home opener? I am taking that bet. And the prediction of 27-3....utterly ridiculous. No way we only score 3 points. Sportsbook.com deserves to lose on this bet.

Posted (edited)

I really hope I'm wrong here, but they simply pressured the QB and jumped our dump offs last time. I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen again this game. Some pressure early to rattle Edwards, and then a focus on his short passes to the flat. Their offense will rely on the run to wear down our defense and put it away in the 4th. It will not be a blowout, but I'd give the points.

Edited by fallen627
Posted (edited)

I'd bet the Bills, seriously.

You bet, seriously. This game is gonna be more like the opening day pounding of the Pats a few years ago. Home field advantage gone wild. Chan ball is go for the jugular, not go for the ankle grab. SQUUUIIISSSHHHH!

 

I AM SO PUMPED!!!

Edited by Bleed Bills Blue
Posted

Step away from the kool aid. Miami by 14.

that's some very thorough and detailed analysis. You should book a flight to vegas right now

Posted

Remember, the line is not what Vegas thinks the result is, but the spread Vegas thinks will get even money on both sides.

 

And as for the comment by this genius...if I were going to give football betting advice to the public I would try to have more sources of team strength than John Clayton's "they don't have a qb or lt" blog. The Bills are not going to win it all, but we also are not one of the worst teams in football.

Posted

I love it. What sage gambling advice to give the public.

 

I am going to the home opener and I really think we are going to win.

 

Bills 27 - Phins 20.

 

If we can block I think Edwards can execute the offense.

Posted

I really hope I'm wrong here, but they simply pressured the QB and jumped our dump offs last time. I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen again this game. Some pressure early to rattle Edwards, and then a focus on his short passes to the flat. Their offense will rely on the run to wear down our defense and put it away in the 4th. It will not be a blowout, but I'd give the points.

 

And what is your analysis on the Dolphins game that we won last year?

 

The first key for Buffalo is stop the "simply pressured the QB " part of it. We have to pass enough to keep them honest and off the line. Then we hit them with Spiller.

Posted

Why would I not be happy?

 

Who gives a flying f--- about the point spread?

 

Do people even understand what a point spread represents?

 

I think it's pretty clear that the OP is referring to what the person says in the linked article.

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