Spiller = Jackson's TD production for the whole year in 3 preseaso

[hammie65]

I believe that Barry Sanders is one of the best running backs to ever play the game but how many championships of any kind did his team win? That's because he was basically trying to do it alone. Our backfield is very talented and deep and arguing about who is number one is pointless since we have a three headed monster and will use all three in multiple ways to suit their strengths. We need to cheer on and support them all as long as they are wearing the Bills uniform and I truly believe they will give defensive coordinators nightmares this season. I will proudly be wearing my Lynch jersey all season as long as he is a Bill and will probably get a Freddie jersey to go with it.

[PDaDdy]

Not wrong. Watch the game. When ever the Bills were within 5 yards of the endzone, Fred Jackson never got a sniff at the endzone. It was always Lynch. I was completely beside myself watching this over and over last year. Using stats to attempt to paint a picture and prove how smart you are doesn't win ball games. That's probably what Harvard grad head coaches do. Try talking real football and hears a novelty for you; look at the big picture instead of picking a meaningless stat to make your case.

 

Uh...ya ....I watched the games. Apparently I'm the only one of us that actually had his eyes open while they were on. How about instead of making bogus claims YOU provide some stats to back your point? Quit making excuses for people. We are talking realism here that's all.

 

What wins ball games is TDs. Jackson doesn't score enough of them. End of story.

[MyHorseAteTheKid]

Spiller turns those nice, 10-12 yard runs by Jackson into 25-30 yard TD's...

 

 

You can't teach speed... But I would still like to see a combination of Lynch/Jackson and Spiller on the field at the same time..

[Original Byrd Man]

I thought the discussion was about football, not the character of the players involved. All I said was that in the two seasons, Jackson has had difficulty in the Red zone. Lynch has the knack to put the ball in the endzone more often than Jackson. We need all the three players to do well.

It should be about football, but many on this board can't get beyond Lynch's off field transgressions. I certainly don't condone any of them but will continue to argue the merits he brings to the team talent wise, and he is also very popular in the locker room. The Bills have a great situation with 3 quality RB's with different skill sets and we should be over joyed by the fact. Unfortunately many posters, as well as the media are compelled to try to elevate Fred to a level above Marshawn to justify trading him. Fortunately for the rest of us, that decision isn't theirs to make. Can't we all just get along????

[Rob's House]

Uh...ya ....I watched the games. Apparently I'm the only one of us that actually had his eyes open while they were on. How about instead of making bogus claims YOU provide some stats to back your point? Quit making excuses for people. We are talking realism here that's all.

 

What wins ball games is TDs. Jackson doesn't score enough of them. End of story.

 

I've posted this on here before but this myth still makes the rounds so I'll say it again. FJ had twice as many TDs as ML last year. Deal with it.

 

 

Disclaimer: stating this fact does not imply that I want ML to be traded*

 

*Unless we could get good value b/c I think Joique Bell can take his place.

Edited August 30, 2010 by Rob's House

[HARCO186]

You're playing my song PDaDdy. For all you folks out there in love with Freddy, Marshawn get's the ball in the endzone, and unless they have changed the game recently, it's points that determine the winner, not yards. And by the way, so much has been made of Jacksons 1000 yard season, but if you do the math that comes to a 62.5 YPG average. That standard was a little different during a 14 game schedule, but not quite the benchmark anymore. I am lovin CJ though. Hope it continues when the games count.

 

For people out there already bashing Jackson, he is not a starting RB! He is a comlimentary back to a system. This is why he wasn't drafted, but look what he brings to the table. He is a change of pace type player that is all. In case some people do not know, the style in the game is not just a one back set. Most teams if not all have 2 backs so they do not count on just one. This is what Fred brings, no not a starting star type, but a back to help with the load...

 

I am starting to see most of this board switching to CJ???? When we drafted him, how come I don't see all the RT tackle and qb draft people still bashing???? Like most, let's B word until something starts to happen, then jump on the wagon and say this is what we wanted. This board is funny because it's just like riding a roller coaster, when the team wins, it's up, when they lose, they bash.

 

By the way, my thoughts are this, CJ is a great pick up for the Bills, I never once gave him a thought until he was drafted. I thought defense myself because we were going 3-4; but they drafted CJ. I never saw it coming except a very few people saying it. I watched and said it might be good because I was not a qb fan or tackle fan for the draft. Now we have him as a compliment to our other backs, but he will not be a everydown guy. get use to having a shared load with the three until next year when Marshawn gets the axe and Freddie and CJ share... They just compliment each other which is needed in todays game.

[bowery4]

Uh...ya ....I watched the games. Apparently I'm the only one of us that actually had his eyes open while they were on. How about instead of making bogus claims YOU provide some stats to back your point? Quit making excuses for people. We are talking realism here that's all.

 

What wins ball games is TDs. Jackson doesn't score enough of them. End of story.

 

In Your Opinion Jackson doesn't. We just don't agree with your opinion.

More quotes about stats:

An unsophisticated forecaster uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts - for support rather than for illumination. ~ Andrew Lang

There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics.

I can prove anything by statistics - except the truth. ~ George Canning

I could prove God statistically. ~ George Gallup

Statistics are no substitute for judgment. ~ Henry Clay

[Wraith]

Interesting attempted use of statistics going on in this thread. A little too much cherry picking for my tastes, though. There's a lot of dimwitted people around here that have no use for statistics (apparently unaware that their very lives depend on them every day) but the selective use of the data by the original poster is even worse.

 

The OP supports his argument that Lynch was underused around the endzone with data showing Lynch had only 19 carries in the redzone while Jackson had 29. Fair enough. That averages out to 1.8 redzone carries a game for Jackson and 1.5 redzone carries a game for Lynch (in only 13 games). The difference is 0.3 carries a game. Seems neglible to me. As an aside, we should all be disgusted that are top two running backs touched the ball so infrequently in the redzone last season.

 

But when you look a little closer it becomes apparent that you selected the only piece of data that supported your argument when there is plenty to refute it.

 

Instead of simply looking at the red zone, lets look at the opponents goal line to 9 yard line. After all, that is where the really tough yards are found and where guys with a "nose for the end zone" earn their reputations. In that zone, Lynch had 7 carries for 12 yards (1.7 ypc) and 1 TD (14.3%). He averaged 0.53 carries in this zone per game.

 

Jackson had 8 carries for 17 yards (2.1 ypc) and 2 TDs (25.0%). He averaged 0.50 carries in this zone per game. Jackson actually touched the ball in this zone ("close to the goal line") at a slightly lower rate than Lynch but performed better than Lynch when he did.

 

But this is an incredibly small sample size and once again we should be disgusted with how infrequently our running backs were given the ball near the goal line (for a variety of reasons, none of them good). So lets look at short yardage situations all over the field. On 2nd, 3rd, or 4th and 2 or less, Lynch carried the ball 9 times for a total of 9 yards (1.0 ypc) and 0 TD (0.0%). Jackson carried the ball 22 times for 70 yards (3.2 ypc) and 0 TD (0.0%). Lynch's average yards per carry on short yardage plays was absolutely pathetic!

 

The splits have a separate category for "3rd and Short" although I do not see a definition of "short." In that category, Lynch had 5 carries for 3 yards (0.4 carries per game in this situation for 0.6 ypc!!!) while Jackson had 7 carries for 16 yards (0.4 carries per game in this situation for 2.3 ypc).

 

The stats absolutely do not back up your claim. Lynch was absolutely pathetic in short yardage last year and near the goal line and despite that fact he was used at basically the same rate as Jackson. His size and previous performance indicate he should be better in the short yardage situations and near the goal line than Jackson. But he wasn't and given his character and work ethic, there is little evidence to show that he ever will be again. What exactly has Lynch done since last year's pathetic showing to show he should take some of Jackson (and now Spillers) playing time?

[Mr. WEO]

Interesting attempted use of statistics going on in this thread. A little too much cherry picking for my tastes, though. There's a lot of dimwitted people around here that have no use for statistics (apparently unaware that their very lives depend on them every day) but the selective use of the data by the original poster is even worse.

 

The OP supports his argument that Lynch was underused around the endzone with data showing Lynch had only 19 carries in the redzone while Jackson had 29. Fair enough. That averages out to 1.8 redzone carries a game for Jackson and 1.5 redzone carries a game for Lynch (in only 13 games). The difference is 0.3 carries a game. Seems neglible to me. As an aside, we should all be disgusted that are top two running backs touched the ball so infrequently in the redzone last season.

 

But when you look a little closer it becomes apparent that you selected the only piece of data that supported your argument when there is plenty to refute it.

 

Instead of simply looking at the red zone, lets look at the opponents goal line to 9 yard line. After all, that is where the really tough yards are found and where guys with a "nose for the end zone" earn their reputations. In that zone, Lynch had 7 carries for 12 yards (1.7 ypc) and 1 TD (14.3%). He averaged 0.53 carries in this zone per game.

 

Jackson had 8 carries for 17 yards (2.1 ypc) and 2 TDs (25.0%). He averaged 0.50 carries in this zone per game. Jackson actually touched the ball in this zone ("close to the goal line") at a slightly lower rate than Lynch but performed better than Lynch when he did.

 

But this is an incredibly small sample size and once again we should be disgusted with how infrequently our running backs were given the ball near the goal line (for a variety of reasons, none of them good). So lets look at short yardage situations all over the field. On 2nd, 3rd, or 4th and 2 or less, Lynch carried the ball 9 times for a total of 9 yards (1.0 ypc) and 0 TD (0.0%). Jackson carried the ball 22 times for 70 yards (3.2 ypc) and 0 TD (0.0%). Lynch's average yards per carry on short yardage plays was absolutely pathetic!

 

The splits have a separate category for "3rd and Short" although I do not see a definition of "short." In that category, Lynch had 5 carries for 3 yards (0.4 carries per game in this situation for 0.6 ypc!!!) while Jackson had 7 carries for 16 yards (0.4 carries per game in this situation for 2.3 ypc).

 

The stats absolutely do not back up your claim. Lynch was absolutely pathetic in short yardage last year and near the goal line and despite that fact he was used at basically the same rate as Jackson. His size and previous performance indicate he should be better in the short yardage situations and near the goal line than Jackson. But he wasn't and given his character and work ethic, there is little evidence to show that he ever will be again. What exactly has Lynch done since last year's pathetic showing to show he should take some of Jackson (and now Spillers) playing time?

You cannot stop a crusade such as "TDs mark the better RB/TDs are all that matter" with your facts.

[Rob's House]

Interesting attempted use of statistics going on in this thread. A little too much cherry picking for my tastes, though. There's a lot of dimwitted people around here that have no use for statistics (apparently unaware that their very lives depend on them every day) but the selective use of the data by the original poster is even worse.

 

...

Nice breakdown, and just all around great post.

[PDaDdy]

In Your Opinion Jackson doesn't. We just don't agree with your opinion.

More quotes about stats:

An unsophisticated forecaster uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts - for support rather than for illumination. ~ Andrew Lang

There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics.

I can prove anything by statistics - except the truth. ~ George Canning

I could prove God statistically. ~ George Gallup

Statistics are no substitute for judgment. ~ Henry Clay

 

All I heard was blah blah blah statistics bad. Don't be one of the lazy uninformed people that tries to discredit the use of statistics. The numbers don't lie!!!! People, however, lie about the numbers and will attempt to miss use them. This is not the case however. Maybe you like pure conjecture and BS but personally I like supporting documentation for someones opinion. I can provide it. The nay sayers can't.

 

I've posted this on here before but this myth still makes the rounds so I'll say it again. FJ had twice as many TDs as ML last year. Deal with it.

 

 

Disclaimer: stating this fact does not imply that I want ML to be traded*

 

*Unless we could get good value b/c I think Joique Bell can take his place.

 

He better have scored twice as many this year. You know why? Because Jackson ran the ball 237 times to Lynch's 120. He had 29 Red zone carries to Lynches 19. He had nearly twice as many receptions.

 

The thing that you don't look at is what did Marshawn do last year when he was the #1. OH, that's right he DOUBLED JACKSONS TDs from this year when Jackson was the #1. Care to comment on that? No? Didn't think so....So....deal with that!

 

For people out there already bashing Jackson, he is not a starting RB! He is a comlimentary back to a system. This is why he wasn't drafted, but look what he brings to the table. He is a change of pace type player that is all. In case some people do not know, the style in the game is not just a one back set. Most teams if not all have 2 backs so they do not count on just one. This is what Fred brings, no not a starting star type, but a back to help with the load...

 

I am starting to see most of this board switching to CJ???? When we drafted him, how come I don't see all the RT tackle and qb draft people still bashing???? Like most, let's B word until something starts to happen, then jump on the wagon and say this is what we wanted. This board is funny because it's just like riding a roller coaster, when the team wins, it's up, when they lose, they bash.

 

By the way, my thoughts are this, CJ is a great pick up for the Bills, I never once gave him a thought until he was drafted. I thought defense myself because we were going 3-4; but they drafted CJ. I never saw it coming except a very few people saying it. I watched and said it might be good because I was not a qb fan or tackle fan for the draft. Now we have him as a compliment to our other backs, but he will not be a everydown guy. get use to having a shared load with the three until next year when Marshawn gets the axe and Freddie and CJ share... They just compliment each other which is needed in todays game.

 

Good points. I just think Freddie with his age will be the one to go. Spiller is a potentially better, albeit smaller, Jackson. Neither really compliments the other as it seems like their games will be similar. Lynch is the shifty bruiser that probably makes a better thunder to The Thrillers lightning.

Edited August 30, 2010 by PDaDdy

[Original Byrd Man]

I've posted this on here before but this myth still makes the rounds so I'll say it again. FJ had twice as many TDs as ML last year. Deal with it.

 

 

Disclaimer: stating this fact does not imply that I want ML to be traded*

 

*Unless we could get good value b/c I think Joique Bell can take his place.

Not sure where you got your data? NFL.com has each of them with two TD's if I read it correctly.

[PDaDdy]

Not sure where you got your data? NFL.com has each of them with two TD's if I read it correctly.

 

 

He is including receiving TDs to our rushing TD discussion. I get his point although he was quick to accuse others of misusing stats.

 

 

This was supposed to be more of a pro Spiller thread. People are going way over the top trying to defend Jackson who needs no defense. He's a GREAT and I mean GREAT change of pace back. People want to make him more than that is the problem.

Edited August 30, 2010 by PDaDdy

[MattyT]

Spiller is an incredible offensive weapon that needs to become a better pass blocker to get regular work, Freddy is better than people are giving him credit for and Lynch will be an ideal complement at power back assuming he can focus and return to form.

 

That said, people seem to be looking at the RB situation all wrong. It's not about one back being better than another...it's about other teams knowing that all three backs are able to do serious damage with the ball. This makes it necessary for teams to account for them. And when 2 or 3 of them are on the field at the same time then it creates favorable matchups in the running and passing game. It can also neutralize the blitz allowing Trent more time upright. The offense will be less predictable and the team's best weapons will stay fresh.

 

I blame the fact that FJ and ML got injured during the first game which forced Chan to run more traditional schemes (that and it's preseason so he probably wants to keep some stuff up his sleeve anyway). We haven't seen the real offense yet and we need to stop thinking about it the way we have in the past.

[PDaDdy]

Spiller is an incredible offensive weapon that needs to become a better pass blocker to get regular work, Freddy is better than people are giving him credit for and Lynch will be an ideal complement at power back assuming he can focus and return to form.

 

That said, people seem to be looking at the RB situation all wrong. It's not about one back being better than another...it's about other teams knowing that all three backs are able to do serious damage with the ball. This makes it necessary for teams to account for them. And when 2 or 3 of them are on the field at the same time then it creates favorable matchups in the running and passing game. It can also neutralize the blitz allowing Trent more time upright. The offense will be less predictable and the team's best weapons will stay fresh.

 

I blame the fact that FJ and ML got injured during the first game which forced Chan to run more traditional schemes (that and it's preseason so he probably wants to keep some stuff up his sleeve anyway). We haven't seen the real offense yet and we need to stop thinking about it the way we have in the past.

 

I agree 100%. I did include an inflammatory factual statement in my original post which created a cascade of posts defending Jackson's low TD output. I got caught up in this myself trying to get people to see the issue objectively but we know how that goes. There is a place for all 3 guys on this team. There are clear roles that each can fill where they will have their niche.

 

My point was Spiller just looks so explosive right now it will be difficult for the fans to understand taking him out in favor of Jackson, or Lynch for that matter, unless it's to give the guy a rest. I know this wasn't initially how Gailey intended to use the guy but now that we have seen what he can do in that capacity, OH MAN!!

 

How do you sell NOT starting him to the fans?

Edited August 30, 2010 by PDaDdy