ganesh Posted August 27, 2010 Posted August 27, 2010 While that may be true, why does it matter? The point made was that one shouldnt draft QBs in the first round because there is such a high percentage of busts. So the money and the draft pick could be better spent, I suppose, on other players and positions. My point was, if other players and positions have pretty much the same fail rate, and you'd have to pay them the same amount in the same draft slot, it's not as though a team should shy away from drafting a QB in the first round (and yes, I know some QBs get a marginal amount more because they are QBs but not much at all) 100% agree. The only difference would be when you hit a year like when Alex Smith was the #1 overall pick. In such a situation, do you really want to overpay for a guy who would have gone more at the end of the 1st round.
RyanC883 Posted August 27, 2010 Posted August 27, 2010 Wonder if Arizona tries to make a play for Dennis Dixon if the Steelers start Leftwich. Really, if i'm them, i'd send a first for Dixon. They have all the weapons they need BUT a decent QB.
Malazan Posted August 27, 2010 Posted August 27, 2010 (edited) Sanchez and Stafford has basically identical years last year. How can you say one is okay but the other is overrated?? One had to have a color coded kindergarten system installed for him. Edited August 27, 2010 by jeremy2020
Thurman#1 Posted August 27, 2010 Posted August 27, 2010 (edited) Read this article. Roughly 10 of the 35 first-round QBs taken between 1990 and 2006 have been successful in the NFL. Based on that list, I estimate 7 of those 10 were/are "franchise" QBs: McNair, Manning (arguably both), Palmer, Rivers, Roethlisberger, and Rodgers. I would say the jury is still out on those taken since 2006 - Ryan and Flacco have been solid so far, Stafford seems OK, but Sanchez was seriously overrated last year. Moreover, in the last decade, despite 26 first-round QBs having been taken in that period, there have been a total of 12 pro-bowl berths for that group and none has been first-team (note this does not include Peyton Manning and Steve McNair who were drafted in the '90s). You might argue that Palmer, in his prime, deserved a first-team pro bowl berth and Rodgers might get one eventually (maybe Rivers). But if you simply want a serviceable QB in the first round (don't know why you'd waste a first-round pick on a serviceable QB, but...) there were a few others - but there also were a large number of busts. Absolutely true, all of it. The problem is that the odds get even worse in the second round. And worse yet in the third. And so on. Look at it the other way. Out of all of the rounds of the draft, and throwing in UDFAs, how many of the league's franchise QBs were drafted in the first round? Yup, makes you think. Like Churchill's quotation about democracy, drafting a QB in the first round is the worst way to get a QB, except for all the others. Sanchez and Stafford did have very simuilar stats last yr Qb Rating Stafford 61 Sanchez 63 TD passes Stafford 13 (plus 2 rushing) Sanchez 12 (plus 3 rushing) Both had 20 INTS Both had a 53% completion percentage. Not much difference besides the fact that Sanchez benefited from playing on a good team and Stafford takes the heat for playing on a crappy one. The reason people are hopeful about Sanchez is because he took a big jump upwards at the end of the year. It was only a couple of games at the end of the season, so his season stats weren't much affected, but take a look at Sanchez's playoff stats. They're a lot better than his regular season stats. Edited August 27, 2010 by Thurman#1
Steely Dan Posted August 27, 2010 Posted August 27, 2010 Another franchise QB the Bills were "stupid" not to draft. Toss him on the pile with the other ones. PTR I was never a fan of Leinart. I think he's too pretty boy Hollywood for the NFL. He has gobs of talent that saw him through college but talent alone doesn't make it in the NFL. JMO Ahhhh, you're talking about the old trade-down-get-Ngata-and-possibly-trade-up-slightly-and-get-Whitner trick! ...yeah, that just would have made Marv's head hurt a little too much, soooooo no. (EDIT - Even if people don't like the tebow pick by the broncos I do respect - as you probably do, too - the wheeling and dealing they did to do it...way beyond our FO) Regardless of how good he would be for us now, as a Bill, I think I could forgive about 13 bad picks the Bills have made if we just would have gotten Ngata. Do you respect the wheeling and dealing the Bills did for McCargo? I think the smartest thing is to sit there and let guys fall to you unless a good deal to fall back comes your way. If you spend picks to move up then if that guy busts he's a multi-pick bust. That's the scary part of the whole thing. Nobody in the world has shown that they can consistently pick a quality QB. There's not a single person that can stand up and say that they can do that. Its the craziest part about this game. On the right roll of the dice you get Manning and you go from 10 year loser to 10 year winner/SB (obviously not as simple as just that). You pick Ryan Leaf, Heath Schuler, JP Losman, Akili Smith, Cade McKnown and you set your team back 5 years. I like guys who are driven to win, cannot stand losing, self motivated and hard working. Talent is a little less important than those things. Somebody like Peyton Manning has them all in gobs. One played on a very good team and still had 20 INTs in front of the best OL in football. The other on the hand played behind a average team. Exactly. Bingo. Which is why I think Stafford gets the benefit of the doubt. I really don't understand what people see in Sanchez. Yeah, but very few people build a team around an LT, DE, LB, or CB. The QB is arguably the most important position in football, certainly the most important on offense since roughly half of the offense relies on the ability of that one guy. If Shonn Green can't handle the load like Thomas could last year the Jests are screwed. Their OL and running game were Sanchez's God sends.
cage Posted August 27, 2010 Posted August 27, 2010 (edited) Do you respect the wheeling and dealing the Bills did for McCargo? I think the smartest thing is to sit there and let guys fall to you unless a good deal to fall back comes your way. If you spend picks to move up then if that guy busts he's a multi-pick bust. I like guys who are driven to win, cannot stand losing, self motivated and hard working. Talent is a little less important than those things. Somebody like Peyton Manning has them all in gobs. I agree with you on not trading up (other than perhaps the rarest of situations). The Bills did that too liberally over the last few years. Ryan Denney, McCargo, Losman and possibly either Wood/Levitre(??) were all results of trade-ups. We'll see on the linemen, but otherwise trading up has bought nothing but busts and at a higher cost as you point out. 2ndly, I agree with all your characteristics of a successful QB. However, by just those standards JP Losman should have been successful. That whole off-season where he was coming into the starting job, all we heard was about his dedication and drive. He moved here in the off-season, lived at OBD, studied film endlessly with Sam Wyche, getting every tip imaginable from Ron Jaworski. There couldn't be a more driven person from every story we heard... all that didn't work. We moved up to get him because we believed that Green Bay would take him to be Favre's successor a few picks later. Regardless of what we think of JP now, at the time of being evaluated, he could easily have been profiled very similar to Favre. Edited August 27, 2010 by cage
ganesh Posted August 27, 2010 Posted August 27, 2010 The mistake on Losman was that we played him a season too soon..He was just not ready. The bills should have kept Bledsoe in that final season instead of getting personal (Donahoe and HC) on him for the loss to the Steelers. It would have given JP to learn for another season before getting the confidence of his teammates. From that point on, Losman was constantly fighting a battle to survive (Nall, Holocomb, Edwards etc), not to mention the revolving door on the OCs.
Mr. WEO Posted August 27, 2010 Posted August 27, 2010 One had to have a color coded kindergarten system installed for him. One was the first QB in NFL history with 2 playoff wins in his rookie year. As for Leinart, I was a believer on draft day and thought he would be decent after sitting behind a first ballot HOF QB like Warner for a few years. He has looked horrible. His coach has soured on him and there's no way he can recover from that.
cage Posted August 27, 2010 Posted August 27, 2010 (edited) The mistake on Losman was that we played him a season too soon..He was just not ready. The bills should have kept Bledsoe in that final season instead of getting personal (Donahoe and HC) on him for the loss to the Steelers. It would have given JP to learn for another season before getting the confidence of his teammates. From that point on, Losman was constantly fighting a battle to survive (Nall, Holocomb, Edwards etc), not to mention the revolving door on the OCs. I guess that brings us back to the original subject of the thread,... Leinart's done that. While its true that they tried to start him in his rookie year, he quickly took a back seat to a probably first ballot HOFer. He learned how to play, he sat/learned, saw what it took to win, went to the SB and still can't do it. He "fell" to the Cardinals w/ the 10th pick, which was considered a steal at the time, with the consensus expectation that he'd go in the top 5. There just isn't any formula... that is the problem. Lets go to the Brady pick by the Patriots, one of the luckiest picks of all time, IMO. If they had any inkling whatsoever that they were drafting even a probable starting quality QB, much less what they got... they would have picked him by the 3rd round. Nobody would risk losing a guy like that to someone else, by thinking he would last till the 6th round. He went to Michigan, its not like he was from some 3rd tier school where they could convince themselves that he wasn't scouted by others... nobody knew, its as simple as that. I was living in Boston when Bledsoe got hurt and they were forced to play Brady. The season was pretty much given up for lost, nobody, even the Patriots had any expectation of what would happen. There was no confidence, yet they went through 2 months of practicing and preseason games with Brady, so they knew him... Edited August 27, 2010 by cage
shoretalk Posted August 27, 2010 Posted August 27, 2010 Wow... now there, my friends, is an example of the dangers of picking QBs in the first round! If we analyzed most quarterbacks that made 'draft experts' drinking their beer drool who were picked in the 1st round through the years we will find that a significant number of those who were cannot miss picks ... failed miserably including a significant number of those chosen with the top 3 or 4 picks. And, even though we made the JP pick with a #1 just think about Ryan Leaf and others. Every single critic of every single NFL team can look over draft lists of their team and find failures. The Bills' draft record is pretty much in the middle of the pack if what the final analysis is how many players from your drafts are still playing in the league 5 years after they were picked. They might not be superstars but if they make it in the league the picks were pretty decent ones ... So, all of you who dream of your team failing so we can pick #1 and get Locker or some other QB ... just be prepared for their failure on the NFL field!
Captain Caveman Posted August 27, 2010 Posted August 27, 2010 Leinart threw 6 passes last game. He didn't exactly get a ton of chances. He missed one deep ball and that was basically it. As Gambo and Ash (Phoenix radio guys) are saying, Whisenhunt just really does not like the guy. Didn't draft him. Doesn't want him. He has more talent than Ryan Fitzpatrick. You can be sure of that. But he just hasn't had a lot of opportunity to show it. The Bills could do a lot worse. He needs a change of scenery. I guess this is close enough.
EastRochBillsfan Posted August 27, 2010 Posted August 27, 2010 Ahhhh, you're talking about the old trade-down-get-Ngata-and-possibly-trade-up-slightly-and-get-Whitner trick! ...yeah, that just would have made Marv's head hurt a little too much, soooooo no. (EDIT - Even if people don't like the tebow pick by the broncos I do respect - as you probably do, too - the wheeling and dealing they did to do it...way beyond our FO) Regardless of how good he would be for us now, as a Bill, I think I could forgive about 13 bad picks the Bills have made if we just would have gotten Ngata. I don't respect the Broncos for that wheeling and dealing. I forget exactly what they gave up for him but I think it was a second, third and fourth. i'd have been extremely pissed if we did that. That's the scary part of the whole thing. Nobody in the world has shown that they can consistently pick a quality QB. There's not a single person that can stand up and say that they can do that. Its the craziest part about this game. On the right roll of the dice you get Manning and you go from 10 year loser to 10 year winner/SB (obviously not as simple as just that). You pick Ryan Leaf, Heath Schuler, JP Losman, Akili Smith, Cade McKnown and you set your team back 5 years. It's hard to draft in the NFL.
buffaloaggie Posted August 27, 2010 Posted August 27, 2010 The bills had a 2nd round grade on Leinart, and liked Cutler better. Despite the picks, I wish we drafted Cutler. Where'd you pull this statement from? Leinart wasn't a fit, and the Bills had Whitner targeted all along. They didn't really consider taking Cutler. 2006 draft
dollars 2 donuts Posted August 27, 2010 Posted August 27, 2010 (edited) Do you respect the wheeling and dealing the Bills did for McCargo? I think the smartest thing is to sit there and let guys fall to you unless a good deal to fall back comes your way. If you spend picks to move up then if that guy busts he's a multi-pick bust. SD, i could be wrong but I don't think we traded down to get McCargo. If you read the post I was responding to it had to do with trading down and still getting a player you want and then some (Bufcomments suggesting we could have gotten Ngata and Whitner by trading down), which is what the Broncos did. I believe all we did was trade up to get McCargo. Again, I might be wrong, but even if I am that was my point. Oh, and for the sole purpose of making Captain Caveman happy...GET'ER DONE, BUDDY!!! (not really) Edited August 27, 2010 by dollars 2 donuts
Doc Posted August 27, 2010 Posted August 27, 2010 Where'd you pull this statement from? Leinart wasn't a fit, and the Bills had Whitner targeted all along. They didn't really consider taking Cutler. 2006 draft I believe abb meant to say the Bills liked Cutler better than Leinart, but not enough to take him at their spot. And they had just drafted JP 2 years earlier, so they weren't going to take a QB anyway.
buffaloaggie Posted August 29, 2010 Posted August 29, 2010 NFL Network's Mike Lombardi reports that there is a real chance Matt Leinart will be released at final cuts. The report is similar to a recent suggestion Lombardi made in an NFL.com column, but he sounds more confident now. "They aren't going to carry four quarterbacks," said Lombardi, who indicated Leinart will be released if the Cards see a QB they want hit the waiver wire in September. They could also opt to keep both rookies Max Hall and John Skelton behind Derek Anderson. Neither Skelton nor Hall would make it through waivers unclaimed. Would find this hard to believe, but I'm sure Pete Carroll would be salivating at the propect of this coming true.
Malazan Posted August 29, 2010 Posted August 29, 2010 Bingo. Which is why I think Stafford gets the benefit of the doubt. I really don't understand what people see in Sanchez. He's pretty and plays for a team in NYC.
apuszczalowski Posted August 29, 2010 Posted August 29, 2010 Sanchez and Stafford has basically identical years last year. How can you say one is okay but the other is overrated?? Because one played on a really good team and the other played on the Lions?
Arkady Renko Posted August 29, 2010 Posted August 29, 2010 I believe abb meant to say the Bills liked Cutler better than Leinart, but not enough to take him at their spot. And they had just drafted JP 2 years earlier, so they weren't going to take a QB anyway. I thought the word was that Modrack wanted Cutler but someone thought that JP could get it together.
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