The dirty little truth about resigning Jennings

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

The two remaing big Bill 2005 off-season signings are Jonas Jennins and Pat Williams. TD had gone on record that we had the money and cap room in hand to sign 1 of three big 2005 FAs and that turned out to be Schobel who signed an extension judged by most as favorable to the Bills (though fans are disappointed that Schobel does not appear to be on track to increase his sack total over last year and needs to improve his pace simply to hit double digits.).

 

The truth is TD was right but he was not saying that we will only keep 2 of these players but that we only had the cap room to extend one of them this year. This is true as our cap room is down to about a million dollars which is the amount useful if something short-term needed to be done in case of injury.

 

However, when one looks at the 2005 cap number, particular in the 2004 budget allocated to the offensive line we will see some significant dead space for players cut removed and our cap number will increase.

 

Specifically, the highest paid OL player by the Bills is none other than Ruben Brown who counts against the Bills 2004 cap for over $4 million even though he is not playing for the team this year.

 

Those who fear that with us at about a million left in cap space right now how will we sign anyone, they can breath a bit easier knowing that for 2005 there is already dollars allocated to the line in the form of Rubens contract and the amount being paid Jennings now and whatever savings we get if/when we cut some other hefty contracts (the play of Baker at safety is probably bad news for the Bills Prioleau to keep getting a million bucks for the team( means that I rhink we will without a horrble sweat be able to pay ampunts equalling the spending for recent LT signings like Eade, Petitgout or Clifton if we have to.

 

Trey Teague who had started at LT for Denver and was cut lose was acquired by the Bills at acap hit of less than $2 million dollars for an LT starter we chose to move to center (over his initial objections.

 

The cap figures for outstanding OL players is reflected in the current top 5 average for framchise players ($7 million) and the top 10 average for transistion players ($6 million). The three FA LTs listed above came in below the top 10 salaries and I think Jennings has played well for us (barring the 1 or 2 games he misses each season due to injury and the games he has left early because he is hurt) but he is simply not worth outstanding FA OL player money and the Bills should have ample opportunities to pay a player less than a big FA LT contract for the same output.

[BADOLBILZ]

The two remaing big Bill 2005 off-season signings are Jonas Jennins and Pat Williams. TD had gone on record that we had the money and cap room in hand to sign 1 of three big 2005 FAs and that turned out to be Schobel who signed an extension judged by most as favorable to the Bills (though fans are disappointed that Schobel does not appear to be on track to increase his sack total over last year and needs to improve his pace simply to hit double digits.).

 

The truth is TD was right but he was not saying that we will only keep 2 of these players but that we only had the cap room to extend one of them this year.  This is true as our cap room is down to about a million dollars which is the amount useful if something short-term needed to be done in case of injury.

 

However, when one looks at the 2005 cap number, particular in the 2004 budget allocated to the offensive line we will see some significant dead space for players cut removed and our cap number will increase.

 

Specifically, the highest paid OL player by the Bills is none other than Ruben Brown who counts against the Bills 2004 cap for over $4 million even though he is not playing for the team this year.

 

Those who fear that with us at about a million left in cap space right now how will we sign anyone, they can breath a bit easier knowing that for 2005 there is already dollars allocated to the line in the form of Rubens contract and the amount being paid Jennings now and whatever savings we get if/when we cut some other hefty contracts (the play of Baker at safety is probably bad news for the Bills Prioleau to keep getting a million bucks for the team( means that I rhink we will without a horrble sweat be able to pay ampunts equalling the spending for recent LT signings like Eade, Petitgout or Clifton if we have to.

 

Trey Teague who had started at LT for Denver and was cut lose was acquired by the Bills at acap hit of less than $2 million dollars for an LT starter we chose to move to center (over his initial objections.

 

The cap figures for outstanding OL players is reflected in the current top 5 average for framchise players ($7 million) and the top 10 average for transistion players ($6 million). The three FA LTs listed above came in below the top 10 salaries and I think Jennings has played well for us (barring the 1 or 2 games he misses each season due to injury and the games he has left early because he is hurt) but he is simply not worth outstanding FA OL player money and the Bills should have ample opportunities to pay a player less than a big FA LT contract for the same output.

146138[/snapback]

 

 

My suspiscion is that Jennings isn't injury prone, but that he has a low tolerance for pain relative to other NFL players. I remember a game a couple years back(believe it was home vs. Dolphins 02') where Ruben Brown had to berate Jennings into playing thru pain and finishing a game.

 

I thought that said it all. This guy goes out of the lineup too quickly. I think it's fair to assume that the last two seasons will be as good as it gets for Jennings playing thru pain because he is playing for the contract of his life, and yet, he missed much of the second half of last year and has come out of the lineup a number of times this year for what I think it's safe to say are minor aches and pains that a lot of players play thru.

 

Jennings is a talented player, but clearly his value is diminished by the fact that he comes out of the lineup a lot at a position where continuity during the season is so important. Now that the Bills have a real NFL OL coach in place, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see them let Jennings walk despite his talent. Hard to justify $5-$6M per season on a long term deal for a guy who you can assume is going to miss a lot of snaps.

 

I'll say it, I don't think it is a coincidence at all that Jason Peters has been getting PT late in the season and that he got the mop-up duty normally reserved for Marcus Price last weekend. The little bit I have seen of Peters at tackle tells me that this guy has the quick feet and explosiveness to be a dynamic player. I think the issue is does he have the focus to take a big step next season. He's had a couple penalties, and got away with at least one false start in the Seattle game so it's not a given.

 

I think McNally will have a huge say in how aggressively the Bills pursue re-signing Jennings.

[JStranger76]

Well, I don't know how we are gonna pay someone way less and get the same production as Jennings so here is what I would do: Try andn resign him at 6 yrs/30 mill./10 mill. SB, and not a penny more. If that doesn't get it done, then I take my chances with the draft. I'm as intrigued with Peters ability as most but I would groom him into the Marcus Price swing tackle role. If we DO lose Jennings hopefully Peters works hard and may the best man between him and the draft pick win. One last thing, NO, Marcus Price IS NOT the man for full time LT, so we better find someone who is.

[Simon]

I'll say it, I don't think it is a coincidence at all that Jason Peters has been getting PT late in the season and that he got the mop-up duty normally reserved for Marcus Price last weekend. The little bit I have seen of Peters at tackle tells me that this guy has the quick feet and explosiveness to be a dynamic player. I think the issue is does he have the focus to take a big step next season. He's had a couple penalties, and got away with at least one false start in the Seattle game so it's not a given.

 

A full year working under McNally could pay some dividends for a guy with Peter's surreal size/athletic ability. But I don't think there's a chacne in hell they'd hang him out at LT, particularly if they decide to stick with Drew for another year. I'm beginning to think that our next LT is already on our roster in the form of MW, and that this is exactly what Donahoe/Modrak envisioned when they drafted him knowing that they weren't going to give Jennings a bank a couple years down the road. If McNally can get MWilliams anywhere close to his potential we're set at LT, and the possibility of Peters getting a serious look at RT becomes verrrrrry intriguing.

Cya

[Kelly the Dog]

My suspiscion is that Jennings isn't injury prone, but that he has a low tolerance for pain relative to other NFL players.  I remember a game a couple years back(believe it was home vs. Dolphins 02') where Ruben Brown had to berate Jennings into playing thru pain and finishing a game.

 

  I thought that said it all.  This guy goes out of the lineup too quickly.  I think it's fair to assume that the last two seasons will be as good as it gets for Jennings playing thru pain because he is playing for the contract of his life, and yet, he missed much of the second half of last year and has come out of the lineup a number of times this year for what I think it's safe to say are minor aches and pains that a lot of players play thru.

 

Jennings is a talented player, but clearly his value is diminished by the fact that he comes out of the lineup a lot at a position where continuity during the season is so important.  Now that the Bills have a real NFL OL coach in place, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see them let Jennings walk despite his talent.  Hard to justify $5-$6M per season on a long term deal for a guy who you can assume is going to miss a lot of snaps.

 

  I'll say it, I don't think it is a coincidence at all that Jason Peters has been getting PT late in the season and that he got the mop-up duty normally reserved for Marcus Price last weekend.  The little bit I have seen of Peters at tackle tells me that this guy has the quick feet and explosiveness to be a dynamic player.  I think the issue is does he have the focus to take a big step next season.  He's had a couple penalties, and got away with at least one false start in the Seattle game so it's not a given.

 

I think McNally will have a huge say in how aggressively the Bills pursue re-signing Jennings.

146278[/snapback]

Good to see ya 'round, Badol...

[KOKBILLS]

My suspiscion is that Jennings isn't injury prone, but that he has a low tolerance for pain relative to other NFL players.  I remember a game a couple years back(believe it was home vs. Dolphins 02') where Ruben Brown had to berate Jennings into playing thru pain and finishing a game.

 

  I thought that said it all.  This guy goes out of the lineup too quickly.  I think it's fair to assume that the last two seasons will be as good as it gets for Jennings playing thru pain because he is playing for the contract of his life, and yet, he missed much of the second half of last year and has come out of the lineup a number of times this year for what I think it's safe to say are minor aches and pains that a lot of players play thru.

 

Jennings is a talented player, but clearly his value is diminished by the fact that he comes out of the lineup a lot at a position where continuity during the season is so important.  Now that the Bills have a real NFL OL coach in place, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see them let Jennings walk despite his talent.  Hard to justify $5-$6M per season on a long term deal for a guy who you can assume is going to miss a lot of snaps.

 

  I'll say it, I don't think it is a coincidence at all that Jason Peters has been getting PT late in the season and that he got the mop-up duty normally reserved for Marcus Price last weekend.  The little bit I have seen of Peters at tackle tells me that this guy has the quick feet and explosiveness to be a dynamic player.  I think the issue is does he have the focus to take a big step next season.  He's had a couple penalties, and got away with at least one false start in the Seattle game so it's not a given.

 

I think McNally will have a huge say in how aggressively the Bills pursue re-signing Jennings.

146278[/snapback]

 

Wow...That's a MONSTER step for Peters! Let's just call it a Long Jump.

 

Seriously though I love the thought! Talk about a Cap bargain at LT! It should be interesting to see because you know the Bills will get 2nd guessed to death in the Off Season if that turns out to be the plan...

 

Hope you're right though BADOL...Peters stepping up would be sweet! B)

[Simon]

Good to see ya 'round, Badol...

 

Sumbitch hides in threads that are started at 2:00AM and end up on page 3 before you see 'em.

You gotta go hunt him up if you want to hear the interesting stuff he whispers twice a week.

[KOKBILLS]

Sumbitch hides in threads that are started at 2:00AM and end up on page 3 before you see 'em.

You gotta go hunt him up if you want to hear the interesting stuff he whispers twice a week. 

149803[/snapback]

 

100% correct Simon! It's worth the search though...Always a great read! B)

[CosmicBills]

I made a comment on an earlier thread about this that fits nicely with this topic.

 

There are two things to keep in mind with JJ that don't show up on the field.

 

First, he is (by every player's own admission that I have heard) one of the most popular locker room guys on the team. Both offense and defense love this guy, he is one of the leaders in the locker room. Anyone who has listened to WCMF's training camp interviews with Jonas knows what I mean. This is something that I value more than others, but it would be a HUGE blow to the locker room to lose a guy like JJ.

 

Secondly, JJ has said several times that he plans on being a sports agent when he hangs up the spikes. The guy is very smart and knows the cap as well as most GMs do. You have to assume he is going to do everything he can to ensure that he gets the best possible deal that is on par with the other LTs in the league. However, since he knows the cap so well that he knows EXACTLY what the Bills will be able to afford next year. What that means is simple, if he wants to be in Buffalo he will find a way to give them a deal that works for both sides. But, if he really wants to go home to Georgia there is nothing the Bills can do.

 

Personally I think it is imperative that the Bills resign JJ. This line is coming together really well and to lose an anchor and a leader the caliber of JJ wil set back the whole unit's development. Especially if the replacement is Teague or Peters. But it's all up to JJ.

[Dan Gross]

I thought his contract was up at the end of the season, so he doesn't have to resign, just walk away from the contract....Oh, you meant re-sign? Nevermind...

[Lori]

Sumbitch hides in threads that are started at 2:00AM and end up on page 3 before you see 'em.

You gotta go hunt him up if you want to hear the interesting stuff he whispers twice a week. 

149803[/snapback]

Try looking in Lot 1 at a home game.... if you ever make it to another home game, ya bastage. I'll even buy your beer.

 

Seriously, though - first thing I do after I park the car and drag the cooler out of the trunk, is head over and hit up BADOL with the questions I've been saving since the last time I saw him...

[Simon]

hit up BADOL with the questions I've been saving since the last time I saw him...

 

Like "How did your meeting with your probation officer go?"

[Lori]

Like "How did your meeting with your probation officer go?" 

149834[/snapback]

Rotten. Truly rotten.

[Simon]

Rotten. Truly rotten.

 

To the core, sister

[nick in* england]

Simon what form of herecy is it to suggest MW plays LT?? You bad bad man...

 

I think you are right... MW has turned up to play at last - and the talk was always of him moving to LT after a while of learning the NFL at RT... Given his performance lately, I think he's ready to be LT... I'm happy with that thought.

[Coach Tuesday]

A few things:

 

1) I do think the #1 plan is to sign Jennings to a fair contract. Although, I suspect Donahoe suspects JJ doesn't want to return. Anyone notice TD's answer in the "Ask Donahoe" Q&A yesterday about Jennings and Williams? Within his boilerplate response ("We'd love to have them back...") was the statement that the #1 factor that goes into resigning free agents is their willingness to stay in Buffalo. Although that's an obvious point, IMO it was in direct reference to JJ and his flirtations with the Falcons. Also, they will NOT overpay for a guy like Jennings. If you haven't noticed, this organization from TD down to McNally prefer guys like Tucker and Villareal to guys like Jennings - guys with less ability but who play smart and tough. You can find those guys, they're cheaper, they play more snaps, and they lead by example.

 

2) I too think that plan B is to replace JJ from within. The hope MUST be that, under McNally's tutelage, MW can move to LT. As for the RT spot, yes Peters is an option; so are Dylan MacFarland, Ben Sobieski, Trey Teague, Marcus Price and, yes, Lawrence Smith (he played that spot on Sunday when MW and JJ were both out). Peters may be the most intriguing, but he's far from a lock to man that spot. Personally, unless he spends the entire offseason tied by a rope to McNally, I see him on the PS again next year.

 

3) You can also expect TD and John Guy to come up with a few more "McNally Projects" in the offseason, either through the draft or free agency. McNally is the best there is at taking scrap-heap finds and making players out of them. That's why they brought him in here - not just to shore up our o-line this year, but also to save us $$ in the future by "coaching up" less expensive players.

[Bill from NYC]

Try looking in Lot 1 at a home game.... if you ever make it to another home game, ya bastage. I'll even buy your beer.

 

Seriously, though - first thing I do after I park the car and drag the cooler out of the trunk, is head over and hit up BADOL with the questions I've been saving since the last time I saw him...

149817[/snapback]

 

I do the same thing, but this year I got to badger you first.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

L love this thread. I also had been feeling like the Bills would look inside for a new LT is necessary rather than spending the ranch and the dog to retain JJ (again a good player to retain, but not for the top 10 OL cap money that an outstanding LT will command).

 

I had 5 options the Bills can pursue (to find the 1 option that works) in not giving JJ too much $ and my list did not even include the concept of shifting MW to LT and instead looking for a new RT (a more findable fit and one which if MW is up to the move makes the ideas of moving Tucker back to tackle or even maling the longshot of retraining Peters as an RT a doable thing).

 

The bills really do have a load of options here so i see no need whatsoever to panic and give JJ a bunch of money if the market provides him with bigger # than LTs like Wade, Clifton or Petitgout commanded.

 

If anyone wants to take he time (if you do I will certainly sing your praises) there is a time consuming but understandable market analysis which can be done to assess how much it will likely take to sign JJ.

 

Right now I think there are a number of factors which will may well constrain the markt for JJ and make him quite signable by the Bills at a big escalation of his salary but at a less than stratospheric amount. These are:

 

1. The NFL run on LTs has actually constrained the market JJ will be entering- It is certainly the case that LTs have commanded huge contracts as folks like Boselli and Ogden got big bucks for this crucial position. However, as these amounts have percolated down the food chain so that folks at the talent level of Wade. Clifton, Petitgout, etc. have gotten $5 million annual salaries which still are out of the top 10 OL cap hits, this means that a good number of teams have already spent their budget allocation for the OL and LT positions. I think that Jennings to some degree is going to be entering a constrained market where many teams have already blown their wad in terms of what they have available for an LT and the lower demand may constrain his price.

 

2. It only takes two teams to create competition which drives up the price. As best as I can tell we ended having to pay through the nose for Milloy because Chicago had a need at this position as we did and had substantial cap room at the time. TD had to offer a high $ take out bid to get Milloy to sign or else we likely would have been in a bidding war with Chicago as the only supply of former Pro Bowl safeties at that time was ONE and two teams were enough demand to jack up Milloy's price. The market constraint I mentioned above may lower demand for LTs. but if there is but one serious opponent interested in JJ his price goes up.

 

However, there is the additional demand constraint that in addition to many teams being committed already at OL/LT, teams which are not committed like AT actually have other cap commitments like their allocations for Mike Vick and Peerless Price which will make it more difficult for them to bid high for JJ.

 

3. In addition to these demand constraints, I think that there actually will be somewhat of a supply of outstanding LTs. For example, I think Orlando Pace will be on the FA market (his current salary is not in the top 10 OL cap hits according to NFLPA.com). If I have the money to spend on an outstanding LT and my choices are JJ or Pace, then my course is clear. If this happens, then STL now enters the market looking for a replacement, but in this game of contractual musical chairs, the key is to have your big contract signed before the music stops. The prescence of more desirable top LTs in the market than JJ heightens the leverage for the Bills to re-sign JJ at a lower bird-in-the-hand offer for him.

 

I think the long piece of analysis which would need to happen to speak authoritatively about this issue is some specific market analysis assessing what is the actual demand out there for LTsgiven the constraint that many teams are already locked in for allocations for this position and also what is the supply of potential players out there (in particular players who may be more attractive at LT than JJ as I suspect Pace might be).

 

It will certainly take some time if I ever get to this, and I would be overjoyed if someone can provide the great service which Clumpy and others have provided on the Bills cap values on this specific issue.

[dave mcbride]

My suspiscion is that Jennings isn't injury prone, but that he has a low tolerance for pain relative to other NFL players.  I remember a game a couple years back(believe it was home vs. Dolphins 02') where Ruben Brown had to berate Jennings into playing thru pain and finishing a game.

 

  I thought that said it all.  This guy goes out of the lineup too quickly.  I think it's fair to assume that the last two seasons will be as good as it gets for Jennings playing thru pain because he is playing for the contract of his life, and yet, he missed much of the second half of last year and has come out of the lineup a number of times this year for what I think it's safe to say are minor aches and pains that a lot of players play thru.

 

Jennings is a talented player, but clearly his value is diminished by the fact that he comes out of the lineup a lot at a position where continuity during the season is so important.  Now that the Bills have a real NFL OL coach in place, it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see them let Jennings walk despite his talent.  Hard to justify $5-$6M per season on a long term deal for a guy who you can assume is going to miss a lot of snaps.

 

  I'll say it, I don't think it is a coincidence at all that Jason Peters has been getting PT late in the season and that he got the mop-up duty normally reserved for Marcus Price last weekend.  The little bit I have seen of Peters at tackle tells me that this guy has the quick feet and explosiveness to be a dynamic player.  I think the issue is does he have the focus to take a big step next season.  He's had a couple penalties, and got away with at least one false start in the Seattle game so it's not a given.

 

I think McNally will have a huge say in how aggressively the Bills pursue re-signing Jennings.

146278[/snapback]

 

for all the talk about jennings being injury prone, he's actually missed about 6 games in four years. it's a myth, basically. he missed a few in season one, one in season 2, and 1-2 last year (i can't remember exactly, but no more than 2), and none this year (although he was knocked out of a game by a concussion). as for the mental acumen of ruben brown in assessing other players, i wouldn't rely on it. jennings is an excellent LT who we should slap the franchise tag on if necessary. we have no - and i mean no - other realistic options at securing an upper tier LT. walter jones and orlando pace are not coming to buffalo. beyond them, you're scraping the bottom of the barrel or praying that a second round draft choice succeeds. the bills aren't in any cap trouble at all and should be able to easily afford it (especially since they won't have any notable dead money next year).

[dave mcbride]

A full year working under McNally could pay some dividends for a guy with Peter's surreal size/athletic ability. But I don't think there's a chacne in hell they'd hang him out at LT, particularly if they decide to stick with Drew for another year. I'm beginning to think that our next LT is already on our roster in the form of MW, and that this is exactly what Donahoe/Modrak envisioned when they drafted him knowing that they weren't going to give Jennings a bank a couple years down the road. If McNally can get MWilliams anywhere close to his potential we're set at LT, and the possibility of Peters getting a serious look at RT becomes verrrrrry intriguing.

Cya

149787[/snapback]

 

simon - don't drink the kool-aid. williams is an RT. he's not as good an LT as jennings. and as for the jason peters option, i have two names for you - mike rockwood and corey louchiey. he wasn't drafted for a reason, and even if he has the physical ability to play the position, i guarantee you that he'll be absolutely terrible next year. and next year is not a rebuilding season.