Lori Posted December 4, 2004 Posted December 4, 2004 Factoid: Nate Clements returned an interception for a touchdown in each of the Bills' last two visits to Miami. Factoid #2: the Miami offense has given up a defensive touchdown in three straight games, and a total of seven this season (6 INT returns, 1 fumble return). Five of those early Christmas presents have come courtesy of this week's starter, A.J. Feeley. Given those trends, I won't guarantee Buffalo's D will score, but don't be shocked if it happens...... Miami O vs. Bills D: The numbers aren't pretty where the Fins' offense is concerned -- most of their stats rank 25th or lower in the league. Our old friend Sammy Morris is dinged again, so it looks like Travis Minor will get the start. Minor is coming off a 22 carries - 47 yards performance against the 49ers, part of a Miami ground game averaging a league-worst 3.3 ypc. Chris Chambers, Marty Booker, and Randy McMichael are decent receivers. Question is, can Feeley stay upright long enough to get the ball to them? No team in the AFC has given up more sacks than the Dolphins' 38... Bills O vs. Miami D: Don't be deceived by Miami's #1-ranked pass D. They're good, don't get me wrong, but quite a few teams were running the ball to protect a lead against them. (29th in rush D, giving up 136.6 yds/game and over 4 ypc.) The Miami front seven has been beset by injuries since the last time we saw them -- DT Tim Bowens and LB Junior Seau are now both on IR, and MLB Zach Thomas has been ruled out for this game. FS Antuan Edwards was released, so none of Miami's top three tacklers from the game in Buffalo will be on the field this Sunday. Both Jonas Jennings and Trey Teague missed that game, but Marcus Price kept DE Jason Taylor off the stat-sheet (with a little help from the TEs/RBs)... Special teams: Miami's coverage teams are decent (15th on KOs) to very good (#2 on punts); no return TDs either for or against. Buffalo's KO-coverage and punt-return teams still rank #1. Bottom line: I think we're finally starting to see the team that teased quite a few of us into predicting a playoff run this season. Given the upheaval in Habana Norte, if the Bills show up ready to take care of business, they should win this game without too much trouble....
CircleTheWagons Posted December 4, 2004 Posted December 4, 2004 No team in the AFC has given up more sacks than the Dolphins' 38... 145571[/snapback] I had to read that twice because I'm so used to that sentence ending with the Bills. We're no longer even in the bottom 10 in the league in sacks allowed. Now that the sacks are going down, I would love to hear a good analysis of why - Does Drew have more time in the pocket? Is McGahee picking up blitzes better than Henry? Is Drew getting rid of the ball faster? Do we get stuck in obvious passing situations a lot less? Enquiring minds want to know
cåblelady Posted December 4, 2004 Posted December 4, 2004 Bottom line: I think we're finally starting to see the team that teased quite a few of us into predicting a playoff run this season. Given the upheaval in Habana Norte, if the Bills show up ready to take care of business, they should win this game without too much trouble.... 145571[/snapback] Hope so, Lori. BTW....nice post.
Lori Posted December 4, 2004 Author Posted December 4, 2004 I had to read that twice because I'm so used to that sentence ending with the Bills. We're no longer even in the bottom 10 in the league in sacks allowed. Now that the sacks are going down, I would love to hear a good analysis of why - Does Drew have more time in the pocket? Is McGahee picking up blitzes better than Henry? Is Drew getting rid of the ball faster? Do we get stuck in obvious passing situations a lot less? Enquiring minds want to know 145611[/snapback] Some people will tell you it's all McGahee, that Drew and the O-line still stink. Others will say it's the line's improvement, and McGahee hasn't made as much of a difference as the first group suggests. You could even cite the wind at the Ralph, for the effect it had on the playcalling in the Miami and Arizona games (and to a lesser extent, the Jets game). And I won't even start in on the pro/anti-Drew factions, since they're starting to sound suspiciously like the DF/RJ flamebaiters of old.... Just going by instinct, I'll tell you what I told the guys in Lot 1 after the Arizona game - it's just a different team with #21 on the field. But looking at the numbers, I have to give the line some credit as well. I charted the game-by-game offensive stats, then added up the totals for the games started by each RB. Obviously, the sack stats are the first thing to jump off the page. Right behind them come the rushing stats -- yards-per-carry goes from 3.5 in games Travis started to 3.8 with Willis, not that big a difference. But the team is also averaging over 6 more carries a game with WM starting, so that adds right about 30 rushing yards to the total. The passing game is still seeing its share of third-and-longs, and third-down conversion percentage has improved only slightly, from 35.3% to 36.3%. The Bills converted a season-high 60% (9-15) of their third-down tries against Seattle; I was mildly surprised to see that the only other game they hit 50% in wasn't in any of WM's starts, but the Jacksonville game (7-14). And other than the two New England games, the Rams game was actually the next-worst (2-11, 18%) in that area - looking back through the play-by-play of that game, there were an awful lot of 3rd-and-10+ situations. The real key to the sacks-against improvement might just be something pointed out after last week's game (by Rubes, I think, or maybe Kelly). He complimented the Bills on finally - FINALLY! - figuring out how to successfully complete a screen pass. Now take that a little further... in games TH started, the completions broke down like this: WRs 56 catches, 65.9% of the total; TEs 9 (10.6); RBs 11 (12.9); FB 8 (9.4). Compare that to the games WM started: WRs 55 catches (60.4%); TEs 16 (17.6); RBs 15 (16.5); FB 5 (5.5). You can infer a couple of possibilities from that breakdown. Either the line has improved to the point that Tom Clements doesn't feel the need to keep the TEs/RBs in to block quite as often, or maybe they're just doing a better job of getting open when they *do* run routes. Now factor in Drew: is he reading his progressions better because the line is giving him more time to do so, or is he finally developing enough confidence in players not named Eric Moulds to look for the dump-off more often? After all that number-crunching... the answers to your questions might be "yes" to all of them, except for maybe the last one. The line isn't great, but it's getting better... and fewer OL penalties also means fewer 3rd-and-longs, something well worth pointing out. WM's blocking didn't impress me at the beginning of the season, but as he gets more playing time, he'll continue to improve. (And yes, he's already a better blocker than TH was.) Likewise, Daimon Shelton has really picked his game up since September. And as the TEs/RBs become a more reliable factor in the passing game, Bledsoe doesn't have to hang onto the ball hoping either Moulds or Evans can get open. But hey, that's just my opinion......
Guest Guest Posted December 5, 2004 Posted December 5, 2004 "Miami O vs. Bills D: The numbers aren't pretty where the Fins' offense is concerned -- most of their stats rank 25th or lower in the league. Our old friend Sammy Morris is dinged again, so it looks like Travis Minor will get the start. Minor is coming off a 22 carries - 47 yards performance against the 49ers, part of a Miami ground game averaging a league-worst 3.3 ypc." Travis Minor....58 carries, 224 yards, 3.9 yards per carry. Willis McGahee.....190 carries, 726 yards, 3.8 yards per carry. That 3.8 ypc seems good enough to get his picture at the top of the page on the Wall....while the 3.9 ypc for Minor is a stat used to show how pathetic the Dolphin offense is. B"Chris Chambers, Marty Booker, and Randy McMichael are decent receivers. Question is, can Feeley stay upright long enough to get the ball to them? No team in the AFC has given up more sacks than the Dolphins' 38..." This statement gives even more credit to Minor getting the 3.9 per carry.....he has to tote the rock with the leagues most feeble O-Line blocking for the most sacked QB's in the league! As for Chambers, Booker and McMichael being "decent".... RMac....51 receptions for 622 yards, 12.2 per catch, 4 TD's. Chambers....49 receptions for 607 yards, 12.4 per catch, 5 TD's.... Bills have Moulds at 63 receptions for 772, 12.3 per catch, 4 TD's.... then you have a huge drop off to 25 or fewer receptions for the rest..... Even Booker has 33 receptions for 431 yards 13.1 /catch. Imagine the damage Feeley could do if he were to stand upright the WHOLE game..... Did you know that A.J. Feeley has the highest QB rating in the NFL when in the shotgun formation?
Dan Gross Posted December 5, 2004 Posted December 5, 2004 So for every two TD's the QB's throw to their offense, they throw one to the defense....? Interesting.... As far as sack performance, Lori gave a good analysis. The bottom line that I see is that we are beating the blitz. The outlet guy is catching the ball (and it's being thrown to him more), McGahee is getting some positive yardage on run blitzes, the blitz is being picked up better...
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