Revis situation is ugly

[Thurman#1]

Before I reply to the above post, I'd like to commend you for your stellar effort at showing that Revis was indeed a shutdown CB; and that his success was not merely due to pressure from the Jets' front seven. (Not that the front seven didn't help; because clearly it did.) You did a commendable job of creating much better posts than I'm used to seeing on these boards!

 

As for your above post, I suppose one could make the argument that the importance of the RDE position in a 3-4 depends on the level of athlete you have there. If you have an "ordinary" 3-4 RDE, he's almost more like a DT in a 4-3 than he is like a DE. By that I mean that a DT in a 4-3 and an "ordinary 3-4 RDE" are both supposed to be run-stoppers first; as well as guys who can put pressure on the QB on passing downs. Neither player is necessarily supposed to come away with double-digit sacks, or anywhere close.

 

But if you have a special 3-4 DE--such as Bruce Smith--then suddenly he becomes a much bigger part of your pass rush strategy. Back when the Bills had Bruce Smith and Bryce Paup, their pass rush wasvery hard for offenses to handle, because it was almost impossible for the offense to double block both players. Had Smith been able to play in the playoff game against the Steelers, I think the Bills would have won that game.

 

More generally, I believe that, all else being equal, a 3-4 defense is significantly more likely to achieve an elite level when you have at least two very good pass rushers on the field at any one time. However, guys like that are very hard to find.

 

 

 

Fair enough, Edwards' Arm. And thanks for the compliment. It really did take a lot of time to find the stats for each game and then to look everything up on Profootballfocus and Football Outsiders, so I appreciate the attaboy.

 

It's true that if you can find a 3 - 4 DE who can rush the passer, ala Bruce, you've got gold, but it's also true that those guys are few and far between.

 

Here's the list of sack leaders from last year. The highest-ranked DE on a 3-4 team that I can find is Randy Starks from the Fins, tied for 23rd with eight other guys with 7 sacks. Not exactly Bruce-like stats there. Behind him is the Ravens' Trevor Pryce with 6.5, tied for 32nd with eight other guys, ah, including Shaun Ellis from the Jets, so that's three within the to 39 sackers. Not a lot. I may have missed someone, so if you want to take a look and check, that would be great.

 

These days, 3 - 4 DEs tend to be bigger than they were back in Bruce's day.

 

Have a good one.

[dave mcbride]

Fair enough, Edwards' Arm. And thanks for the compliment. It really did take a lot of time to find the stats for each game and then to look everything up on Profootballfocus and Football Outsiders, so I appreciate the attaboy.

 

It's true that if you can find a 3 - 4 DE who can rush the passer, ala Bruce, you've got gold, but it's also true that those guys are few and far between.

 

Here's the list of sack leaders from last year. The highest-ranked DE on a 3-4 team that I can find is Randy Starks from the Fins, tied for 23rd with eight other guys with 7 sacks. Not exactly Bruce-like stats there. Behind him is the Ravens' Trevor Pryce with 6.5, tied for 32nd with eight other guys, ah, including Shaun Ellis from the Jets, so that's three within the to 39 sackers. Not a lot. I may have missed someone, so if you want to take a look and check, that would be great.

 

These days, 3 - 4 DEs tend to be bigger than they were back in Bruce's day.

 

Have a good one.

I wonder how much his rookie stats were skewed by the 83 yard TD he gave up to Evans. He actually made a terrific play on the ball but Evans ripped it out of his hands from behind and took it to the house.

[Wayne Cubed]

LINK

 

Gotta love that quote by owner Woody Johnson on if Revis will play this year "My gut feeling is, I would say no,"

[Skoobydum]

LINK

 

Gotta love that quote by owner Woody Johnson on if Revis will play this year "My gut feeling is, I would say no,"

 

Yeah, I just read this. They're far apart, which helps the Bills.

[Mr. ChumChums]

Fair enough, Edwards' Arm. And thanks for the compliment. It really did take a lot of time to find the stats for each game and then to look everything up on Profootballfocus and Football Outsiders, so I appreciate the attaboy.

 

It's true that if you can find a 3 - 4 DE who can rush the passer, ala Bruce, you've got gold, but it's also true that those guys are few and far between.

 

Here's the list of sack leaders from last year. The highest-ranked DE on a 3-4 team that I can find is Randy Starks from the Fins, tied for 23rd with eight other guys with 7 sacks. Not exactly Bruce-like stats there. Behind him is the Ravens' Trevor Pryce with 6.5, tied for 32nd with eight other guys, ah, including Shaun Ellis from the Jets, so that's three within the to 39 sackers. Not a lot. I may have missed someone, so if you want to take a look and check, that would be great.

 

These days, 3 - 4 DEs tend to be bigger than they were back in Bruce's day.

 

Have a good one.

 

You also have to keep in mind that the type of 3-4 defense matters a lot. The "classic" 3-4 is also called a 2-gap 3-4, because the 3 down linemen all have to cover 2 different gap assignments - this is why they typically don't have huge sack numbers. In a 2-gap 3-4, their main job is to maintain gap responsibility and cover the run.

 

However, there is another type of 3-4 called the 1-gap 3-4, which has the 3 down linemen play a more penetrating style, responsible for attacking a single gap. This is the defense that Bruce Smith played in (and the same one that Dallas runs as well with Wade Phillips). Here, the 3-4 RDE plays a role similar to a penetrating 3-technique DT (a-la Warren Sapp), and can, if you have the proper athlete, get consistent double digit sack numbers. This is also why Dallas can get away with Jay Ratliff as their NT, since instead of being responsible for 2-gaps, he's responsible for penetrating the A-gap.

[Skoobydum]

You also have to keep in mind that the type of 3-4 defense matters a lot. The "classic" 3-4 is also called a 2-gap 3-4, because the 3 down linemen all have to cover 2 different gap assignments - this is why they typically don't have huge sack numbers. In a 2-gap 3-4, their main job is to maintain gap responsibility and cover the run.

 

However, there is another type of 3-4 called the 1-gap 3-4, which has the 3 down linemen play a more penetrating style, responsible for attacking a single gap. This is the defense that Bruce Smith played in (and the same one that Dallas runs as well with Wade Phillips). Here, the 3-4 RDE plays a role similar to a penetrating 3-technique DT (a-la Warren Sapp), and can, if you have the proper athlete, get consistent double digit sack numbers. This is also why Dallas can get away with Jay Ratliff as their NT, since instead of being responsible for 2-gaps, he's responsible for penetrating the A-gap.

 

I seen a picture of Ratliff, he isn't penetrating any gaps / anywhere.

[Mr. ChumChums]

I seen a picture of Ratliff, he isn't penetrating any gaps / anywhere.

 

You could say the same thing about Fatty Haynseworth - but he did just fine 2 seasons ago

[richNjoisy]

The only way the Bills beat the Jets is if the Jets entire 53 man roster holds out.

 

Other than that, Revis not being in the starting lineup will do little to help the Bills.

 

jeesh what a short memory YOU have

 

The Bills BEAT them last year. Why would you state that they should not even play the game?

 

The Jets are trying to buy their way to a Super Bowl. Their run game is suspect. Their run defense is average. Their QB is still a baby whom we intercepted 6 times in one game last year. We beat them while Jauron was still our coach.

 

Now Revis may be out for the game.

 

Will the Bills be underdogs? Of course. But they ain't rolling over and I have some hope they can beat them.

[Mr. ChumChums]

The Jets are trying to buy their way to a Super Bowl. Their run game is suspect. Their run defense is average. Their QB is still a baby whom we intercepted 6 times in one game last year. We beat them while Jauron was still our coach.

 

Not to be nit-picky, but the Bills actually intercepted Mark Sanchez 5 times in that game. The 6th INT came from their Punter, Steve Weatherford.

 

But otherwise, I agree with your post

[John Cocktosten]

jeesh what a short memory YOU have

Their run defense is average.

The Jets D ranked 4th in the NFL in opponents YPC at 3.8 and 8th in opp YPG. They played more than half of the year without their best run defender too.

 

But go ahead....

[Skoobydum]

jeesh what a short memory YOU have

 

The Bills BEAT them last year. Why would you state that they should not even play the game?

 

The Jets are trying to buy their way to a Super Bowl. Their run game is suspect. Their run defense is average. Their QB is still a baby whom we intercepted 6 times in one game last year. We beat them while Jauron was still our coach.

 

Now Revis may be out for the game.

 

Will the Bills be underdogs? Of course. But they ain't rolling over and I have some hope they can beat them.

 

[sharper802]

Revis was due $1 million this season, drastically underpaid for one of the best CB's in the league. He'd be the 7th-highest paid Jets defensive back.

 

HOWEVER--

 

He held out before his rookie season, after he was drafted, in order to secure an EXTRA year on his first contract. He signed a 6-year deal, and also had a guaranteed clause in his contract that if he was in training camp everyday thereafter of his first four seasons, he would activate $20 million in guaranteed money over the last two seasons of the deal.

 

Therefore, by holding out, he is forfeiting what is essentially a 3-year, $21 million guaranteed deal, a fairly reasonable sum for a first contract. But he is seeking the richest contract for a CB in the NFL.

 

The Jets are so strapped for cap space, they have offered (as the Titans did with Chris Johnson) an attempt at a raise for this season, but the offer was believed to have been in the $2.5-$3 million range, which Revis called "laughable."

 

Revis is making a foolish move, in my opinion, by forfeiting that guaranteed money (via his absence at camp.) Obviously, by leaving that money on the table, he's not going to sign a meager contract. But really, his only leverage is the hope that the Jets feel they have a Super Bowl team, and need him to win this year. Otherwise, he's backed himself into an unbelievably stupid corner, especially after holding out as a rookie to secure the extra year on his deal.

There is no cap

[richNjoisy]

The Jets D ranked 4th in the NFL in opponents YPC at 3.8 and 8th in opp YPG. They played more than half of the year without their best run defender too.

 

But go ahead....

 

 

oops indeed.

 

my bad

[richNjoisy]

Not to be nit-picky, but the Bills actually intercepted Mark Sanchez 5 times in that game. The 6th INT came from their Punter, Steve Weatherford.

 

But otherwise, I agree with your post

 

 

sometimes I am too lazy to look uop the stats so I am forced to rely solely on my memory........how am I doing?

 

let me just say (in Chris Berman's voice) "Let's PLAY the GAME" !

[richNjoisy]

Revis wants about a $14 M a year raise, OMG. He is dug in as well, so we won't have to play him at this pace.

 

 

Revis failed to show up for the start of the Jets' training camp on Sunday because he is unhappy with a contract that is set to pay him $1 million this season. Revis wants to be the NFL's highest-paid CB with a deal that surpassed the three-year, $45.3 million contract the Oakland Raiders bestowed on Nnamdi Asomugha in 2009.

 

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/th...arrelle-revis/1

 

Now each side is calling the other a liar. Sweeeeeeeeet

 

http://www.sacbee.com/2010/08/11/2952069/j..._rss=Wire%20NFL

[Doc]

I was watching ESPNews and they did 10,000 simulations of the Jets' 2010 schedule with and without Revis, and the results said the Jets were predicted to lose 1 game more (basically 9-7 to 8-8) without him, and that that 1 game significantly reduced their chances of making the playoffs. I thought it was interesting, although we'll never know whether it's true or not.

[richNjoisy]

I was watching ESPNews and they did 10,000 simulations of the Jets' 2010 schedule with and without Revis, and the results said the Jets were predicted to lose 1 game more (basically 9-7 to 8-8) without him, and that that 1 game significantly reduced their chances of making the playoffs. I thought it was interesting, although we'll never know whether it's true or not.

 

 

How interesting, Doc. So, in money terms, is one more win worth ~ $15 million??? based on playoffs/no playoffs I'd say that would be a no brainer.

 

Also, I am a bit surprised that the simulations only show a difference of one win. My understanding is that games are often won or lost by one or two BIG plays. A "shutdown corner" , one would think, would reduce the big plays markedly.

[Doc]

How interesting, Doc. So, in money terms, is one more win worth ~ $15 million??? based on playoffs/no playoffs I'd say that would be a no brainer.

 

Also, I am a bit surprised that the simulations only show a difference of one win. My understanding is that games are often won or lost by one or two BIG plays. A "shutdown corner" , one would think, would reduce the big plays markedly.

Actually, it wasn't even 1 win. It was something like 0.8 win (IIRC it was 8.9 wins versus 8.1). I found that interesting as well. And if it is the difference between playoffs and not, you do it. But no one can say whether the Jets with Revis are a definite playoff team, while without him it would seem obvious they aren't. But in any case, that's a huge chunk of change, and if the cap goes down in the future, it will be a huge percentage for one player.

[richNjoisy]

Actually, it wasn't even 1 win. It was something like 0.8 win (IIRC it was 8.9 wins versus 8.1). I found that interesting as well. And if it is the difference between playoffs and not, you do it. But no one can say whether the Jets with Revis are a definite playoff team, while without him it would seem obvious they aren't. But in any case, that's a huge chunk of change, and if the cap goes down in the future, it will be a huge percentage for one player.

 

The timing of this and some other players contracts is FINALLY a break for the Bills - we have no holdouts. San Diego is the most F-ed with a pro bowl WR and a Pro bowl OT holding out. One would THINK that a new collective bargaining agreement will include a salary cap but having said that it is hard to imagine that average salaries of the top players will drop. I would think what will drop will be the lower end players salaries and - in particular - rookie salaries. No one (except agents and rookies) like the way the 1st rounders are occupying salary cap space. But - if their salary drops - I can mostly see it working back in to maintain upper echelon player salaries.

 

As to how this actually plays in to the Revis situation one can only conjecture but it SOUNDS like both sides have points and neither side is willing to bend. In fact, and this is the FUNNY part (for a Bills fan), it is starting to sound personal which is a huge mistake for both sides. Since I know no one that matters is reading this (ha ha) I can safely resolve this - I would offer Revis the same deal + a little more than what Debrickashaw was given with a huge salary for year one (the uncapped year) and then salary and bonuses in annual chunks to balance out possible new CBA situations. Yes, he is breaking a contract but he was going to make $20 mil plus if he did not get hurt over the next 3 years. Make it $45 with 30 mil guaranteed.

 

but, they keep on insulting each other....sweeeeet