Lack of OT's May Kill BILLS Again!

[mpl6876]

they obviously took a playmaker (extraordinary) instead of a trench type player (dime a dozen).

 

do you think the titans are kicking themselves for taking chris johnson over duane brown or kentawn balmer? LOL

 

 

I know they drafted the "college extraordinary playmaker." I am excited to see him play. I am hoping he can produce on the NFL level too. It seems as though many have already proclaimed him as the next CJ. There are no guarantee that Spiller is going to have pro success. He is not a lock by any means.

 

Your statement of a trench player dime a dozen is naive and very shallow. Look at this years draft and past drafts and see where LT,OL,DE (trench players) were drafted. There is your answer.

 

There are valid points to made on drafting Spiller or not drafting him. Time will tell if he is an NFL star running back.

[CarolinaBill]

I know they drafted the "college extraordinary playmaker." I am excited to see him play. I am hoping he can produce on the NFL level too. It seems as though many have already proclaimed him as the next CJ. There are no guarantee that Spiller is going to have pro success. He is not a lock by any means.

 

Your statement of a trench player dime a dozen is naive and very shallow. Look at this years draft and past drafts and see where LT,OL,DE (trench players) were drafted. There is your answer.

 

There are valid points to made on drafting Spiller or not drafting him. Time will tell if he is the star running back.

the bottom line here is that 2 guys who have forgotten more about football than we will ever know thought that spiller was a better choice than any OT available at #9.

[mpl6876]

the bottom line here is that 2 guys who have forgotten more about football than we will ever know thought that spiller was a better choice than any OT available at #9.

 

Well, some experts thought he was one of the top rated player in the whole draft. why did 8 other teams pass on him? Answer: they drafted to their needs and we didn't.

 

Plus, we didn't even consider trading the pick based on how they ran to the podium. Closed off a potential too good to be true trade. Really there was no legit reason not to wait and listen to others offers.

[CarolinaBill]

Well, some experts thought he was one of the top rated player in the whole draft. why did 8 other teams pass on him? Answer: they drafted to their needs and we didn't.

 

Plus, we didn't even consider trading the pick based on how they ran to the podium. Closed off a potential too good to be true trade. Really there was no legit reason not to wait and listen to others offers.

except that the percieved need at OT, was not a need in their opinion, and neither was QB, at least not any available this year. You may like the idea of trading back, but if nix didnt like the players available he wasnt going to pick them, even if it appeased some of the fans, and he said as much the other day. They wanted spiller, they got him, end of story.

[mpl6876]

except that the percieved need at OT, was not a need in their opinion, and neither was QB, at least not any available this year. You may like the idea of trading back, but if nix didnt like the players available he wasnt going to pick them, even if it appeased some of the fans, and he said as much the other day. They wanted spiller, they got him, end of story.

 

That is very true. I just don't know why you can't even admit the front office should have waited and listened to other offers. They had ten minutes to see if something too good to be true could have materialized. I would have never shortened my options especially that we are a team in transitions and have many holes to fill. IMO, very very bad tactical move.

[CarolinaBill]

That is very true. I just don't know why you can't even admit the front office should have waited and listened to other offers. They had ten minutes to see if something too good to be true could have materialized. I would have never shortened my options especially that we are a team in transitions and have many holes to fill. IMO, very very bad tactical move.

look, you think they should have waited, but for what? the guy they wanted was there, 3 picks later SD took the 2nd best RB, what does that tell you about the likelihood of Spiller lasting much longer.

 

I understand the sentiment and thinking that they shouldve waited, but when your guy is right there in front of you, why wait? you dont, it was their pick, they made it, we should all move on, because there is no point in playing the what if game right now.

[Thurman#1]

The Tampa-2 favors smaller, quicker players. Who tend to get injured and/or worn-down easier.

 

 

 

You can say that about the Tampa-2 all you like, it's not particularly true. The Colts, Bears and Bucs when running the Tampa-2 didn't have high injury numbers. The Bills were way out in front of all those teams, and not for one or two years, but for three years in a row.

 

You're not the only one making that argument ... far from it ... but the Tampa Two isn't the reason for all those injuries. If it were, it would have happened to all or at least most of the Tampa Two teams. Instead, we were consistently among the most-injured in the league, and they weren't.

 

It's become abundantly clear that our S&L coaches were sub-standard, and that is most of the reason for our injury totals being so high. Which makes it a very good thing that we brought in new guys. Let's hope they turn out to be good ones.

[thewildrabbit]

You can say that about the Tampa-2 all you like, it's not particularly true. The Colts, Bears and Bucs when running the Tampa-2 didn't have high injury numbers. The Bills were way out in front of all those teams, and not for one or two years, but for three years in a row.

 

You're not the only one making that argument ... far from it ... but the Tampa Two isn't the reason for all those injuries. If it were, it would have happened to all or at least most of the Tampa Two teams. Instead, we were consistently among the most-injured in the league, and they weren't.

 

It's become abundantly clear that our S&L coaches were sub-standard, and that is most of the reason for our injury totals being so high. Which makes it a very good thing that we brought in new guys. Let's hope they turn out to be good ones.

Really, all we can do is hope...that all the new coaches, players, schemes turn out to be good ones.

 

The reality is the Bills will be a bad team this year, perhaps the worst in the NFL. I'm going with that outlook and IF they win more then 2 games then my expectations have been exceeded.

[Bill from NYC]

the bottom line here is that 2 guys who have forgotten more about football than we will ever know thought that spiller was a better choice than any OT available at #9.

 

I don't buy into this logic.

Levy and Jauron also knew more about football than posters on this board, but that didn't make almost all of their draft selections any less idiotic, did it?

 

Spiller might turn out to have been a great selection; anything is possible. But generally speaking, it would seem like a bad idea for a team to put its star studded draft pick running back behind a woefully awful line. That is....IF the goal is to win football games.

[Thurman#1]

Who said it was "okay?" He wasn't ready to start, and it showed. It's not his fault per se, as I doubt he wanted to be that bad, or even be put in that situation. As for Meredith, we'll have to see how he does before we call him a psycho chick.

 

Here's what you said:

 

"And it's no surprise Bell was so bad, considering how weak and raw he was coming out of college, that he didn't play his rookie year, didn't get starting reps all off- and pre-season, much less start a pre-season game, and missed 2 weeks of camp/pre-season games."

 

 

You're apologizing for him. To me, that means you think it's OK.

 

And are you serious when you say "It's not [bell's] fault per se, as I doubt he wanted to be that bad, or even be put in that situation." He didn't want to be bad, so it's not his fault? Well, I guess it's never any player's fault ever, then, because none of them want to be bad. What kind of thinking is that? We all blame players who aren't good enough. And we should, and do, also blame the F.O. for not bringing in players who ARE good enough.

 

 

The comparison was to Clay Matthews III, who had 5.5 sacks his entire college career (if Maybin did "a tiny bit," Matthews did nothing). And Maybin looks the part of a 3-4 OLB a hell of a lot more than a 4-3 DE. But again, we'll have to see how he does. And he's not the only OLB candidate on the team.

 

 

I don't know what you're talking about. Go back and look at post #44, where you said that. There is no reference to Clay Matthews, nor did I mention him in the post you were replying to.

 

The part I understand I already answered. Looking the part means jack.

 

You're right he's not the only OLB candidate on the team. But only he and Schobel look even slightly capable of getting many sacks this year. If Schobel comes back, it will be a huge boost for this year's defense, assuming he can play OLB, and I'd bet he will at least rush the passer pretty well from there, even if it turns out he can't cover worth beans. If Schobel doesn't come back, our pass rush looks set up to be pitiful this year.

 

 

 

Edwards, Davis, and Torbor, yes. Which is more than the Packers had before their switch.

 

Okay, so you're saying that Edwards, Davis, and Torbor, two of whom are the most who will be playing together at a time, two out of seven, are, in your own words, "many?" Well, I guess we'll have to disagree on the meaning of the word "many."

 

I think Dwan Edwards is going to be an asset to this defense, mostly against the run, he's not much of a pass rusher, but he is really going to help against the run. The other two aren't even guaranteed starters.

 

The Packers had brought in Ryan Pickett, a 350 pounder who had been a two-gapper for most of his career and had actually played NT some with the Rams. The Pack also passed on selecting a game-breaking RB and used one first-rounder to get a terrific young ROLB, Matthews and their other first-rounder to pick up an extremely promising young NT, B.J. Raji. As NT and ROLB are the two crucial positions in a 3 - 4, the Packers were already much better off than we are, though if Schobel returns, again, that will really help us address ROLB this year at least. The Packers also already had players who didn't have to be switched to new positions, because their defense was already big before they started. Unlike us, they weren't using the Tampa Two, so their guys were already large. Ours aren't. Their NT had already played two-gap. Their LDE? Had been their LDE for years. Their MLBs? Had been their LBs for years. In fact, all four of their LBs had played LB for years, unlike our situation, where we're using two guys with virtually no LB experience. Stroud has had no The Pack already had most of the players they needed already on their roster. And they needed an ROLB, like us, and they spent their first-rounder on one, unlike us.

 

The Pack were much better set up for the transition.

 

 

Actually, he's not. By his own admission.

 

 

I see. Kyle Williams says he is going to have the same responsibilities as last year? I'd love to see a link to that.

 

 

 

 

Actually, he's not. By his own admission.

 

As someone else posted, there is a much higher success rate for conversion to the 3-4 than failure rate. So they don't look bad. But again, the season will bear that out.

 

 

 

And as the article said, many to most of those conversions used a "soft conversion," taking two or three years to do it, so that when they officially made the transition, they were ready. Only one of all of those conversions was from a Tampa Two, the Jets.

 

And did the Jets defense really improve all that much from 2005 to 2006? Results were very mixed.

 

Yards per Play went from 4.7 to 5.2.

Yards per Game 308.8 (12th) to 331.6 (20th)

Net Yards per Passing Attempt went from 5.6 to 5.7

YPG Passing went from 172.2 YPG Passing (2nd best in the league) to 201.4 YPG Passing (14th best in the league)

YPA Rushing went from 3.9 to 4.6 (that, um, that's pretty significant, from very good to extremely bad)

TD/INT ratio went from 17:21 to 19:16

 

Those are all the negatives. Now the positives.

 

3rd down percentage went from 88/212 (42%) to 76/208 (36%). That's a bit better.

Points scored went from 355 to 295. That's a very significant improvement.

 

So how come that defense was worse on every play, allowing many more yards per play and many more yards total, and yet allowed fewer points. It's hard to understand until you think about the offense. The QB of the offense went from Brooks Bollinger in 2005 to Chad Pennington in 2006. The offense was a great deal better than it had been. The defense was able to play from in front more rather than from behind, and they also got significantly better field position.

 

You can't say that defense improved a lot, you just can't. Particularly the run defense went from good to abysmal.

 

The Bills last year were a very small defense. This means that they have had to switch guys to positions that they have never played before so that they will be big enough (or at least not simply too small to play in a 3 - 4). It looks like there's a good chance that 4 out of our front seven will be playing out of position. I know you and many others here would like to believe that having our front seven be mostly rookies or guys playing out of position won't be a problem.

 

Fine. Grab your Kool-Aid. After a few slugs, everything will look better.

 

After a year or two, though, when everyone has 3 - 4 experience and we've drafted a few more guys who fit the defense, things could really look good - assuming Nix is as good a drafter as we think he is. This year, though, just doesn't look good at all.

[tennesseeboy]

the bottom line here is that 2 guys who have forgotten more about football than we will ever know thought that spiller was a better choice than any OT available at #9.

I'm not sure I want guys who have forgotten that much about football running the team. They apparently forgot that there are five dull offensive linemen who make flashy running backs look good. Even Juice had the Electric Company and wasn't a stellar professional running back until Lou Saban came back on board and put a good offensive line together. And I've seen the Juice run...believe me..Spiller has a long way to go before he can be considered in the ilk of Juice, Payton, Sanders, Thurman or the elite runners in this league.

[CarolinaBill]

I'm not sure I want guys who have forgotten that much about football running the team. They apparently forgot that there are five dull offensive linemen who make flashy running backs look good. Even Juice had the Electric Company and wasn't a stellar professional running back until Lou Saban came back on board and put a good offensive line together. And I've seen the Juice run...believe me..Spiller has a long way to go before he can be considered in the ilk of Juice, Payton, Sanders, Thurman or the elite runners in this league.

Its a figure of speech for christs sake.

 

Nix knows what he is doing and in his expert GM opinion, spiller was a better option than the RIGHT TACKLE bulaga, or eventual 2nd rd pick clausen, or the questionable work ethic that is anthony davis.

[Doc]

You can say that about the Tampa-2 all you like, it's not particularly true. The Colts, Bears and Bucs when running the Tampa-2 didn't have high injury numbers. The Bills were way out in front of all those teams, and not for one or two years, but for three years in a row.

 

You're not the only one making that argument ... far from it ... but the Tampa Two isn't the reason for all those injuries. If it were, it would have happened to all or at least most of the Tampa Two teams. Instead, we were consistently among the most-injured in the league, and they weren't.

 

It's become abundantly clear that our S&L coaches were sub-standard, and that is most of the reason for our injury totals being so high. Which makes it a very good thing that we brought in new guys. Let's hope they turn out to be good ones.

The Bucs' defense was pretty stout, I'll give you that. But the Bears and Colts have had lots of injury issues. And outside of maybe a couple years, with one really good one, the Bears' defense hasn't been anything special. Moreover, it makes empirical sense that smaller players going up against bigger ones will get injured or wear-down faster. Not that the ineptitude of the offense the past few years hasn't contributed to that problem.

[Thurman#1]

Its a figure of speech for christs sake.

 

Nix knows what he is doing and in his expert GM opinion, spiller was a better option than the RIGHT TACKLE bulaga, or eventual 2nd rd pick clausen, or the questionable work ethic that is anthony davis.

 

 

 

Again, he hasn't said they were better options. What he has said is that he thinks the guys we have at QB and LT deserve a shot in a decent system. And that you can't fix everything in one year, which I definitely agree with.

[Thurman#1]

The Bucs' defense was pretty stout, I'll give you that. But the Bears and Colts have had lots of injury issues. And outside of maybe a couple years, with one really good one, the Bears' defense hasn't been anything special. Moreover, it makes empirical sense that smaller players going up against bigger ones will get injured or wear-down faster. Not that the ineptitude of the offense the past few years hasn't contributed to that problem.

 

 

 

Come on, if the defense was so horrible, how come three teams using it have made the Super Bowl, and two have won it?

 

You can use empirical sense or you can look at the data, which shows that the Bills for three years have lost far more people to injuries than those other Cover Two teams.

 

I'm not arguing that the Bears defense has been special the past few years. They haven't had the personnel. The year they did, they were excellent and made the Super Bowl. But that's beside the point. All I said was that the Cover Two was NOT the reason we had so many injuries, because those other teams had the same defense and far fewer injuries. We led the league in guys on IR two out of the last three years and were close in the third year too.

[Thurman#1]

Why should I "believe Buddy Nix after all this time?" I've been less than impressed by his tenure thus far. I am not aware of any rules prohibiting Buddy from trading up or trading down. Maybe he lacks the negotiating skills to do it, or didn't want to do it...but he wasn't prohibited.

 

Proof is in the pudding. He wins nine games with the offensive line he puts on the field this season and I'll eat my words. He wins fewer than the seven we won last year and he should be fired.

 

 

We're rebuilding. Buddy can't say it, but he doesn't care about this year. If we still suck in 2012, then yeah, think about firing him.

[Thurman#1]

Again Thurm, "NFL ready at LT." And those game-by-game stats show that Monroe was up-and-down even at the end of the season. It doesn't destroy much. If anything, it shows you that taking a 2-3 game stretch and projecting off of that leads you to say things like "Butler and then Incognito were the Bills' 2 best OL last year."

 

 

Up and down means you're not NFL-ready by your argument? Well then, I guess Willie Colon isn't NFL-ready.

 

http://profootballfocus.com/by_player.php?...p;playerid=3076

 

And Damian Woody ... not NFL-ready.

 

http://profootballfocus.com/by_player.php?...mp;playerid=451

 

Jared Gaither, who got a negative in the playoff game, must not be NFL-ready.

 

http://profootballfocus.com/by_player.php?...p;playerid=4279

 

D'Brickashaw Ferguson, not NFL-ready.

 

http://profootballfocus.com/by_player.php?...p;playerid=2949

 

And these are the absolute best in the league. Everybody goes up and down, with the exceptions being ONLY Joe Thomas and Jake Long. Sorry, but going up and down doesn't make you not NFL-ready. Limiting the downs to small numbers and limiting the downs to a small percentage of games is what makes you not just NFL-ready but damn good. And after the first two games, Monroe's season looked much like D'Brick's and the others. Not quite as good, but damn close.

 

Look, I want to get this down on record for everyone to see ... are you seriously saying that Eugene Monroe and Vollmer were not NFL-ready? Is that seriously what you're saying?

[Thurman#1]

Here's what you said first:

 

Who out of the last 2 drafts has proven to be an "NFL-ready LT?"

 

 

That was your entire post. Nothing was edited out.

 

There was nothing there about all these other qualifiers. You're changing your argument.

 

 

 

It's implied, Thurm. If the complaint is why the Bills haven't addressed the LT spot, things need to be put in context (similar to why I asked for the 2009 and 2010 drafts, since the Bills still had Peters in 2008). OT's taken before the Bills picked in the 1st round don't count.

 

 

Now all of a sudden, certain things don't count. So what you're doing is backing down off your first position.

[Thurman#1]

Meredith didn't prove to be incapable of playing RT last year, despite his limited (he played about 1/4 of a season in snaps) playing time. If we do a Eugene Monroe, he was average and finished well against the Colts. What does it mean? We'll have to find out.

 

 

 

I couldn't agree more with most of your post. I think Meredith stands a decent chance of being a good RT. LT, not so much.

 

If we do a Eugene Monroe, we discover that Monroe played almost the whole season, started badly in the first two games and after that had three positive games (green, over POSITIVE 1.0), only one negative game (red, below NEGATIVE 1.0) and nine average games (between POSITIVE and NEGATIVE 1.0). That's extremely consistent, particularly for a first year player.

 

Meredith, on the other hand, had only one positive game, against the Colt second-stringers. After his two negative games, the Bills never let him play more than 16 plays until the Colts second-stringers.

 

And again, I think Meredith might well turn into a decent RT.

[Doc]

You're apologizing for him. To me, that means you think it's OK.

You think I'm saying it's OK that Bell wasn't ready and put into a bad situation? Hey, you're entitled to your opinion.

 

I don't know what you're talking about. Go back and look at post #44, where you said that. There is no reference to Clay Matthews, nor did I mention him in the post you were replying to.

 

The part I understand I already answered. Looking the part means jack.

So do predictions, which is why I said we'll need to wait and see. And the poster to whom I was responding said that Matthews got 10 sacks as a rookie, and his college career wasn't even close to Maybin's final season.

You're right he's not the only OLB candidate on the team. But only he and Schobel look even slightly capable of getting many sacks this year. If Schobel comes back, it will be a huge boost for this year's defense, assuming he can play OLB, and I'd bet he will at least rush the passer pretty well from there, even if it turns out he can't cover worth beans. If Schobel doesn't come back, our pass rush looks set up to be pitiful this year.

Chris Ellis has been looking good. And Maybin seemed to do better last night after being called-out. Schobel coming back will be huge as he'll be the pass-rushing OLB. And usually the other OLB isn't a big sack/pressure guy.

Okay, so you're saying that Edwards, Davis, and Torbor, two of whom are the most who will be playing together at a time, two out of seven, are, in your own words, "many?" Well, I guess we'll have to disagree on the meaning of the word "many."

 

I think Dwan Edwards is going to be an asset to this defense, mostly against the run, he's not much of a pass rusher, but he is really going to help against the run. The other two aren't even guaranteed starters.

Three out of 7 is "many." And conceivably all 3 could start and at worst, the non-starter(s) will provide experienced depth, which is important.

The Packers had brought in Ryan Pickett, a 350 pounder who had been a two-gapper for most of his career and had actually played NT some with the Rams. The Pack also passed on selecting a game-breaking RB and used one first-rounder to get a terrific young ROLB, Matthews and their other first-rounder to pick up an extremely promising young NT, B.J. Raji. As NT and ROLB are the two crucial positions in a 3 - 4, the Packers were already much better off than we are, though if Schobel returns, again, that will really help us address ROLB this year at least. The Packers also already had players who didn't have to be switched to new positions, because their defense was already big before they started. Unlike us, they weren't using the Tampa Two, so their guys were already large. Ours aren't. Their NT had already played two-gap. Their LDE? Had been their LDE for years. Their MLBs? Had been their LBs for years. In fact, all four of their LBs had played LB for years, unlike our situation, where we're using two guys with virtually no LB experience. Stroud has had no The Pack already had most of the players they needed already on their roster. And they needed an ROLB, like us, and they spent their first-rounder on one, unlike us.

 

The Pack were much better set up for the transition.

Were they? That they drafted Raji to play NT (who he was a bigger disappointment there, pun fully intended, than Maybin was at DE), when they already had Pickett, tells me that they didn't envision Pickett as a true NT and wanted to ultimately shift him to DE. Not unlike the Bills, who drafted Troup to play NT and moved Stroud (who lost weight to improve his quickness and stamina) to DE. Both he and Edwards have the size to play 3-4 DE, as do Carrington and Johnson. The Packers also shifted their other DT's to DE and their DE's to OLB, again like the Bills did. There are no "Tampa 2" players on defense (they played in the system for a few seasons) anymore outside of Ellison, who figures to be gone, and thus there are no issues of size.

 

I see. Kyle Williams says he is going to have the same responsibilities as last year? I'd love to see a link to that.

There was an audio interview with him where he said he's basically doing the same things as last year, i.e. shooting the (OG-OC) gap. A la the Wade Phillips-style 1-gap 3-4. I'll see if I can find it because it was about a month ago.

 

As for the article, it's a matter of debate. The Bills have done what others before them have done, i.e. drafting a NT, moving DT's to DE and DE's to OLB. and adding players familiar with the defense. We'll see how it turns out.