Better, worse, or the same?

[PromoTheRobot]

There is so much negativity about the Bills, most of which I feel is totally absurd. So I'm going to break down various aspects of the Bills going into 2010 and ask you are they better, worse, or the same at that position. Ready play? Let's begin with the offense...

 

QB:

2009-Trent/Fitz/Brohm

2010-Trent/Fitz/Brohm/Brown

 

We bring back the same 3 QB's from last year plus add a rookie in the draft. It's obvious to me based on the amount of work Levi brown got in OTA's that he has his ticket to the practice squad stamped.

 

Result = SAME

 

RB:

2009-Jackson/Lynch/Omon/McIntyre

2010-Jackson/Spiller/Lynch/Bell etc.

 

The Bills ranked 16th in rushing offense in 2009. They add the most exciting, explosive RB in the 2010 draft.

 

Result = BETTER

 

WR:

2009-Evans/Owens/Reed/Hardy etc.

2010-Evans/Hardy/Johnson/Easley etc.

 

T.O. and Josh Reed accounted for almost half of the Bills 2515 passing yards in 2009. Both are gone. While Easley and other rookies have looked good, and CJ Spiller is expected to contribute in passing situations, being rookies their impact is hard to anticipate.

 

Result = WORSE

 

TE:

2009-Nelson/Schouman/Fine/Stupar

2010-Nelson/Schouman/Stupar/Matthews

 

Among the many players on IR last year were Fine and Schouman. Schouman returns. Blocking TE Matthews is added, Nelson will hopefully continue to develop.

 

Result = SAME

 

OL:

2009-Hangartner/Wood/Levitre/Butler/Bell/Jon Scott etc.

2010-Hangartner/Wood/Levitre/Bell/Green/Wang etc.

 

It's hard to be any worse than the Bills O-line in 2009. Making matters worse were almost weekly injuries that forced the team to literally grab any able body left. Key players like Wood and Bell return from injury. Butler retired. Cornell Green picked up in FA. Wang drafted. Even though this is essentially the same group as 2009, having worked together in OTAs and camp has to bring improvement.

 

Result = SAME

 

Now let's look at the defense...

 

DL:

2009-Schobel/Stroud/Williams/Denney/Kelsay/Maybin/McCargo/Ellis etc.

2010-Stroud/Williams/Troup/Dwan Edwards/Carrington/Harvey/McCargo

 

This front played stout but wore down being on the filed so much. Had trouble against the run. 4-3 Tampa-2 a bad match in many games. Bills switch to a 3-4 in 2010. Add several rookies and one FA. Lose Schobel to retirement.

 

Result = WORSE

 

LB:

2009-Poz/Mitchell/Ellison/Palmer/Harris/Buggs/Corto etc.

2010-Poz/Mitchell/Ellison/Torbor/Andra Davis/Batten/Coleman/several former DE's like Kelsay and Ellis etc

 

The Bills LB corps had almost as many injuries as the OL and the team was forced to grab anyone to field a team by the end of 2009. Hard to judge 2010 with new 3-4 system but getting Mitchell back from IR should help. Davis and Torbor have experience in 3-4.

 

Result = SAME

 

DB:

2009-McGee/McKelvin/Wilson./Whitner/Florence/Byrd/Scott/Yobouty etc.

2010-McGee/McKelvin/Wilson./Whitner/Florence/Byrd/Scott/Yobouty etc.

 

DB is the one area where the Bills were strong in 2009. Almost no changes in 2010 except CB's McGee and and McKelvin return from IR.

 

Result = BETTER.

 

Special teams:

2009-Lindell/Moorman/McKelvin/Parrish/Jackson

2010-Lindell/Moorman/McKelvin/Parrish/Spiller

 

Solid punter and kicker return. Kick returner McKelvin returns. Explosive CJ Spiller added to return team.

 

Result = BETTER

 

Coaching:

2009-Jauron/Van Pelt/Fewell/April etc.

2010-Gailey/Modkins/Edwards/Dehaven

 

Fewell and April were solid. Van Pelt and Jauron were a complete joke. Van Pelt has an excuse being thrown into the job at the last second. Jauron may have earned his place in the Bills ex-coaches hall of shame next to Hank Bullough and Kay Stephenson. While Modkins is young he will apprentice under offensive master Gailey. Edwards has a decent resume in the 3-4.

 

Result = BETTER

 

So in short, the Bills improved Coaching. Special Teams, DBs, and RBs. They got worse in DL and WR. They stayed the same in OL, QB, TE and LB. So to me the Bills did not become a worse team overall in 2010. They improved. If the Jauron-led Bills could win 6-7 games, based on my analysis, I don't see why the Gailey-led Bills can't win at least 8 games, if not 9.

 

PTR

[MattyT]

Disagree about LBs being same, although by not such a huge margin that I'm going to fight over it too hard.

 

But otherwise...assuming you're right about QB = SAME and OL = SAME then that's pretty much all I need to know about the Bills hopes of improving this year.

[PromoTheRobot]

Disagree about LBs being same, although by not such a huge margin that I'm going to fight over it too hard.

 

But otherwise...assuming you're right about QB = SAME and OL = SAME then that's pretty much all I need to know about the Bills hopes of improving this year.

I'll give you some on LB. That was hard to judge but we are getting Mitchel back and we added two okay FA LBs with 3-4 experience.

 

QB is definitely the same but the OL has to improve some just by going through OTAs and camp as a single unit. I mean really, can you be any worse at OL than last year, picking up anyone you can find and starting them the following week?

 

PTR

[stuckincincy]

There is so much negativity about the Bills, most of which I feel is totally absurd.

 

PTR

 

We shall see, but I think our upcoming opponents are rubbing their foreparts together like a fly anticipating a fresh plop of dog doo.

[PromoTheRobot]

We shall see, but I think our upcoming opponents are rubbing their foreparts together like a fly anticipating a fresh plop of dog doo.

I hope they are. In fact I'm certain the Dolphins will feel like they are playing pre-season game #5 when they arrive at RWS. That would be perfect.

 

PTR

[CodeMonkey]

DB:

Your list Looks identical for both seasons which would be a result of SAME to me.

 

Special teams:

You are assuming Spiller contributes here. Even if he does, I would give this a SAME as well.

 

Don't see fault in the rest of your thoughts.

 

I break it down simpler than that. We lost 2 proven good starting receivers and picked up a (hopefully) good skatback.

Upgraded to a mediocre head coach (which I agree is a big improvement).

 

Player personnel is a slight downgrade overall. Coaching an upgrade. Somewhat tougher schedule (at least based on last seasons results). I see this season as a little worse than last year unless something extraordinary happens. But I do not see a 2-14 season as some are suggesting.

[Thoner7]

There is so much negativity about the Bills, most of which I feel is totally absurd. So I'm going to break down various aspects of the Bills going into 2010 and ask you are they better, worse, or the same at that position. Ready play? Let's begin with the offense...

 

QB:

2009-Trent/Fitz/Brohm

2010-Trent/Fitz/Brohm/Brown

 

We bring back the same 3 QB's from last year plus add a rookie in the draft. It's obvious to me based on the amount of work Levi brown got in OTA's that he has his ticket to the practice squad stamped.

 

Result = SAME

 

RB:

2009-Jackson/Lynch/Omon/McIntyre

2010-Jackson/Spiller/Lynch/Bell etc.

 

The Bills ranked 16th in rushing offense in 2009. They add the most exciting, explosive RB in the 2010 draft.

 

Result = BETTER

 

WR:

2009-Evans/Owens/Reed/Hardy etc.

2010-Evans/Hardy/Johnson/Easley etc.

 

T.O. and Josh Reed accounted for almost half of the Bills 2515 passing yards in 2009. Both are gone. While Easley and other rookies have looked good, and CJ Spiller is expected to contribute in passing situations, being rookies their impact is hard to anticipate.

 

Result = WORSE

 

TE:

2009-Nelson/Schouman/Fine/Stupar

2010-Nelson/Schouman/Stupar/Matthews

 

Among the many players on IR last year were Fine and Schouman. Schouman returns. Blocking TE Matthews is added, Nelson will hopefully continue to develop.

 

Result = SAME

 

OL:

2009-Hangartner/Wood/Levitre/Butler/Bell/Jon Scott etc.

2010-Hangartner/Wood/Levitre/Bell/Green/Wang etc.

 

It's hard to be any worse than the Bills O-line in 2009. Making matters worse were almost weekly injuries that forced the team to literally grab any able body left. Key players like Wood and Bell return from injury. Butler retired. Cornell Green picked up in FA. Wang drafted. Even though this is essentially the same group as 2009, having worked together in OTAs and camp has to bring improvement.

 

Result = SAME

 

Now let's look at the defense...

 

DL:

2009-Schobel/Stroud/Williams/Denney/Kelsay/Maybin/McCargo/Ellis etc.

2010-Stroud/Williams/Troup/Dwan Edwards/Carrington/Harvey/McCargo

 

This front played stout but wore down being on the filed so much. Had trouble against the run. 4-3 Tampa-2 a bad match in many games. Bills switch to a 3-4 in 2010. Add several rookies and one FA. Lose Schobel to retirement.

 

Result = WORSE

 

LB:

2009-Poz/Mitchell/Ellison/Palmer/Harris/Buggs/Corto etc.

2010-Poz/Mitchell/Ellison/Torbor/Andra Davis/Batten/Coleman/several former DE's like Kelsay and Ellis etc

 

The Bills LB corps had almost as many injuries as the OL and the team was forced to grab anyone to field a team by the end of 2009. Hard to judge 2010 with new 3-4 system but getting Mitchell back from IR should help. Davis and Torbor have experience in 3-4.

 

Result = SAME

 

DB:

2009-McGee/McKelvin/Wilson./Whitner/Florence/Byrd/Scott/Yobouty etc.

2010-McGee/McKelvin/Wilson./Whitner/Florence/Byrd/Scott/Yobouty etc.

 

DB is the one area where the Bills were strong in 2009. Almost no changes in 2010 except CB's McGee and and McKelvin return from IR.

 

Result = BETTER.

 

Special teams:

2009-Lindell/Moorman/McKelvin/Parrish/Jackson

2010-Lindell/Moorman/McKelvin/Parrish/Spiller

 

Solid punter and kicker return. Kick returner McKelvin returns. Explosive CJ Spiller added to return team.

 

Result = BETTER

 

Coaching:

2009-Jauron/Van Pelt/Fewell/April etc.

2010-Gailey/Modkins/Edwards/Dehaven

 

Fewell and April were solid. Van Pelt and Jauron were a complete joke. Van Pelt has an excuse being thrown into the job at the last second. Jauron may have earned his place in the Bills ex-coaches hall of shame next to Hank Bullough and Kay Stephenson. While Modkins is young he will apprentice under offensive master Gailey. Edwards has a decent resume in the 3-4.

 

Result = BETTER

 

So in short, the Bills improved Coaching. Special Teams, DBs, and RBs. They got worse in DL and WR. They stayed the same in OL, QB, TE and LB. So to me the Bills did not become a worse team overall in 2010. They improved. If the Jauron-led Bills could win 6-7 games, based on my analysis, I don't see why the Gailey-led Bills can't win at least 8 games, if not 9.

 

PTR

 

LBs wont be better.

 

With McGees injury I dont see DBs being better either.

 

ST wont be better bc we lost April and no way our new coach is as good as him.

[Ennjay]

One huge variable that could be a tremendous "better": health.

 

Jauron's teams always seemed to run out of bodies. A lot of your "sames" could become clear "betters" if the expected starters could make it through the season.

 

I also think going from LOL embarassment to so-so on offense via the upgraded coaching supervision could be a large better, personnel aside.

 

Having said that, it's hard to figure in how much better the compeititon will be, who gets the breaks (like, I don't think much of Mark Sanchez but he can't possibly throw as many INT's vs. the Bills in '10 as he did in the NY win in '09, can he?), how motivated the competition will be (like, do the Bears and Packers treat us as an off-week or do they smell fresh meat)?

 

I think they'll be better in observable ways but they may not win any more games.

[The Avenger]

Some other variables that need to be factored in (even though there is no way to scientifically say we are better/worse and how many wins this will translate into):

 

1. Playing time at positions - you may deem a given player "better" at a position, but if he's a rookie or new to the position we have no idea whether this pereceived increase in actual talent means anything

 

2. New schemes - like #1 above, but even if you have played a given spot before, what happens when the whole scheme changes, like going from a 4-3 to a 3-4? Remember what happened to Warren Sapp when they changed schemes? He went from a monster to a nobody.

 

3. Schedule - if Buffalo was the only one making any roster changes and we played the exact same opponents as we did last year we might be able to gauge whether they would win more or less games than they did last year by looking only at the Bills, but the Bills are only half of the equation. Unfortunately, I think the schedule got tougher and the teams in our division got stronger.

[PromoTheRobot]

LBs wont be better.

 

With McGees injury I dont see DBs being better either.

 

ST wont be better bc we lost April and no way our new coach is as good as him.

You don't think Bruce Dehaven is as good as Bobby April?

I didn't say LBs would be better. I said it would be the same, although not having so many injuries as last year would be an improvement.

DBs are better because we get back two starting CBs that didn't play most of last season.

 

Also, Code Monkey, why wouldn't Spiller improve the return game?

 

PTR

[kota]

Dude it's better at every position. We have new coaches. Coaching makes a team not the players.

[Heitz]

One huge variable that could be a tremendous "better": health.

 

Jauron's teams always seemed to run out of bodies. A lot of your "sames" could become clear "betters" if the expected starters could make it through the season.

 

Good call, and hopefully along the same lines will be Overall Conditioning! I just don't see Gailey's guys running out of gas in the 4th quarter of a big game. Doesn't mean we're going to win 'em all, but I think we'll have a better chance.

[Drifter]

Dude it's better at every position. We have new coaches. Coaching makes a team not the players.

 

 

Yeah Barry Switzer was instrumental in the Cowboys winning Superbowl XXX. Coaching can get you over the top to hide your teams weakness, but you need talent first. The Bills are not are so devoid of talent it's sad to think about.

[CarolinaBill]

Here's my take--

There is so much negativity about the Bills, most of which I feel is totally absurd. So I'm going to break down various aspects of the Bills going into 2010 and ask you are they better, worse, or the same at that position. Ready play? Let's begin with the offense...

 

QB:

2009-Trent/Fitz/Brohm

2010-Brohm/Fitz/Brown

 

We bring back the best 2 QB's from last year plus add a rookie in the draft. It's obvious to me based on the amount of work Levi brown got in OTA's that he has his ticket to the practice squad stamped. The new system should help brohm get back to the form he showed at UL

 

Result = better

 

RB:

2009-Jackson/Lynch/Omon/McIntyre

2010-Jackson/Spiller/Lynch/Bell etc.

 

The Bills ranked 16th in rushing offense in 2009. They add the most exciting, explosive RB in the 2010 draft.

 

Result = BETTER

 

WR:

2009-Evans/Owens/Reed/Hardy etc.

2010-Evans/Hardy/Johnson/Easley etc.

 

T.O. and Josh Reed accounted for almost half of the Bills 2515 passing yards in 2009. Both are gone, and thats a good thing. Bigger targets such as hardy and johnson should help spread the field and b/t the 2 of them they should be able to match the combined 87 rec and 5 tds that reed/TO provided. While Easley and other rookies have looked good, and CJ Spiller is expected to contribute in passing situations, being rookies their impact is hard to anticipate.

 

Result = Better

 

TE:

2009-Nelson/Schouman/Fine/Stupar

2010-Nelson/Schouman/Stupar/Matthews

 

Among the many players on IR last year were Fine and Schouman. Schouman returns. Blocking TE Matthews is added, Nelson will hopefully continue to develop.

 

Result = SAME

 

OL:

2009-Hangartner/Wood/Levitre/Butler/Bell/Jon Scott etc.

2010-Hangartner/Wood/Levitre/Bell/Green/Wang etc.

 

It's hard to be any worse than the Bills O-line in 2009. Making matters worse were almost weekly injuries that forced the team to literally grab any able body left. Key players like Wood and Bell return from injury. Butler retired. Cornell Green picked up in FA. Wang drafted. Even though this is essentially the same group as 2009, having worked together in OTAs and camp has to bring improvement. Dont be surprised to see Jamon meredith take one of the OT spots by the midpoint of the season if not sooner.

 

Result = SAME

 

Now let's look at the defense...

 

DL:

2009-Schobel/Stroud/Williams/Denney/Kelsay/Maybin/McCargo/Ellis etc.

2010-Stroud/Williams/Troup/Dwan Edwards/Carrington/Harvey/McCargo

 

This front played stout but wore down being on the filed so much. Had trouble against the run. 4-3 Tampa-2 a bad match in many games. Bills switch to a 3-4 in 2010, wich should help against the run. Add several rookies and one FA, all of which should contribute throughout the season. Lose Schobel to retirement.

 

Result = Better

 

LB:

2009-Poz/Mitchell/Ellison/Palmer/Harris/Buggs/Corto etc.

2010-Poz/Maybin/Mitchell/Ellison/Torbor/Andra Davis/Batten/Coleman/several former DE's like Kelsay and Ellis etc

 

The Bills LB corps had almost as many injuries as the OL and the team was forced to grab anyone to field a team by the end of 2009. Hard to judge 2010 with new 3-4 system but getting Mitchell back from IR should help. Davis and Torbor have experience in 3-4. Maybin moving to a more natural position of rush OLB should help generate pressure off the edge, alos look for Batten to get reps at LOLB if the injury bug hits.

 

Result = SAME

 

DB:

2009-McGee/McKelvin/Wilson./Whitner/Florence/Byrd/Scott/Yobouty etc.

2010-McGee/McKelvin/Wilson./Whitner/Florence/Byrd/Scott/Yobouty etc.

 

DB is the one area where the Bills were strong in 2009. Almost no changes in 2010 except CB's McGee and and McKelvin return from IR.

 

Result = BETTER.

 

Special teams:

2009-Lindell/Moorman/McKelvin/Parrish/Jackson

2010-Lindell/Moorman/McKelvin/Parrish/Spiller

 

Solid punter and kicker return. Kick returner McKelvin returns. Explosive CJ Spiller added to return team.

 

Result = BETTER

 

Coaching:

2009-Jauron/Van Pelt/Fewell/April etc.

2010-Gailey/Modkins/Edwards/Dehaven

 

Fewell and April were solid. Van Pelt and Jauron were a complete joke. Van Pelt has an excuse being thrown into the job at the last second. Jauron may have earned his place in the Bills ex-coaches hall of shame next to Hank Bullough and Kay Stephenson. While Modkins is young he will apprentice under offensive master Gailey. Edwards has a decent resume in the 3-4.

 

Result = BETTER

 

So in short, the Bills improved Coaching. Special Teams, qbs, DBs, and RBs. They got worse in nowhere. They stayed the same in OL, TE and LB. So to me the Bills did not become a worse team overall in 2010. They improved. If the Jauron-led Bills could win 6-7 games, based on my analysis, I don't see why the Gailey-led Bills can't win at least 8 games, if not 9 or more.

 

CB

[PromoTheRobot]

Yeah Barry Switzer was instrumental in the Cowboys winning Superbowl XXX. Coaching can get you over the top to hide your teams weakness, but you need talent first. The Bills are not are so devoid of talent it's sad to think about.

So are you saying the Bills ARE devoid of talent or NOT devoid of talent?

 

PTR

[Glass To The Arson]

I disagree with DL

 

I think Dwan Edwards is going to be good

[The Wiz]

Remember what happened to Warren Sapp when they changed schemes? He went from a monster to a nobody.

Any chance our nobody's change into monsters?

 

I think Maybin will be better as an OLB if he can learn the position quickly (even though we only saw about a dozen plays from him as DE last season).

[Alphadawg7]

QB: BETTER - I understand why you put the same, however this group is better than last season. First, Brohm now has relevant experience in both the system and with his teammates, that notion alone makes him better than last year. Second, the new coaching regime has a proven track record of getting more out of its QBs than others have, so that also in their favor given they are not in that pop warner scheme anymore.

 

RB: BETTER - Clearly better with having Lynch from the get go and adding the best RB in the draft.

 

WR: BETTER - Again, I totally see why you put worse given a future HOF WR left this team and the underrated Reed is gone. But, I think our young guys have the potential to be better than Reed was and better than the version of TO we got last year. But thats not why I put better. I put better because last years coaches were the most clueless in history on how to get the balls into the WR's hands. The new system I think will be designed to take advantage the abilities of Lee and some of our young guys making the unit more productive. Also, I feel like the improved QB play that I expect also will allow this unit to improve as well.

 

TE: SAME - Honestly, I want to put better here just on the notion that Nelson will presumably be better now that he has some experience under his belt and will be in a more favorable offense that the inept system we had last year.

 

OL: BETTER - Nothing can be worse than last year, and getting some players back from injury automatically upgrades it. Not to mention our young guys have more experience now and we added an interesting pick in Wang to the line. Not saying they will be neccessarily good, but barring more bad injuries, this line will be better than last year.

 

DL: SAME - This is based on the assumption that Schobel wont be back. With Schobel I would rate this unit BETTER as we added some intriguing young guys like Troup to the fold and also Dwan, but without Schobel I cant officially say better until someone can prove to be able to step up in his place. I know Schobel would be moved around in this defense, but he still would shuffle in and out of the DL I would expect and his presence would help the guys up front regardless of where he lines up.

 

LB: BETTER - This is a unit with clear upgrades like RB. Davis is a great addition to this D and we finally have a little depth. Poz has been getting better each yead and then add in Maybin as a potential sleeper to have an impact playing on the outside and this unit looks better to me.

 

DB: BETTER - I was tempted to put same given the personnel are about the same, but the sheer fact that we get Byrd with a year under his belt from the start of the season this year already makes this unit better along with our DB's.

 

ST: SAME - Hard to tell with this unit...we added a playmaker in Spiller, but we already had big playmakers on ST the last few years, so cant really say better. Could be worse with April gone, but too early to tell. So I put same.

 

Coaching: BETTER - What really needs to be said here...a monkey would be better than last years debacle, especially at OC.

 

Overall I think this team is better than last years team in both talent and coaching. Health and schemes are a big reasons why I think some of these units will be better as well, but we did add some players in draft and FA that I think are going to upgrade several units.

[mpl6876]

Some other variables that need to be factored in (even though there is no way to scientifically say we are better/worse and how many wins this will translate into):

 

1. Playing time at positions - you may deem a given player "better" at a position, but if he's a rookie or new to the position we have no idea whether this pereceived increase in actual talent means anything

 

2. New schemes - like #1 above, but even if you have played a given spot before, what happens when the whole scheme changes, like going from a 4-3 to a 3-4? Remember what happened to Warren Sapp when they changed schemes? He went from a monster to a nobody.

 

3. Schedule - if Buffalo was the only one making any roster changes and we played the exact same opponents as we did last year we might be able to gauge whether they would win more or less games than they did last year by looking only at the Bills, but the Bills are only half of the equation. Unfortunately, I think the schedule got tougher and the teams in our division got stronger.

 

Great post. As I was reading Promo's "kool aided" post I was thinking the same thing. Lots of other variables need to be analyzed too.

[PromoTheRobot]

Great post. As I was reading Promo's "kool aided" post I was thinking the same thing. Lots of other variables need to be analyzed too.

I thought I was being fairly conservative. Why don't you give your ratings and reasons for comparison purposes. Obviously there are variables. Injuries, breakout rookies, etc. But based on what you've seen from last year, how do the Bills look now?

 

PTR