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Posted

Football Prospectus had a stat of what correlates to success from college to the NFL.

 

1- Accuracy if they can't complete 60% of their passes in college what makes you think they are going to improve in the NFL.

 

2- Games Started- They said 30 starts in college if they can stay healthy and get 3 seasons of college experience they will likely stay healthy and have consistency in the NFL.

 

3- Improvement in accuracy- Another lesser know stat is more starting equating to being better accuracy. Because having the ability to improve with more action would mean a likely improvement with more time seen in the NFL.

Posted
Football Prospectus had a stat of what correlates to success from college to the NFL.

 

1- Accuracy if they can't complete 60% of their passes in college what makes you think they are going to improve in the NFL.

 

2- Games Started- They said 30 starts in college if they can stay healthy and get 3 seasons of college experience they will likely stay healthy and have consistency in the NFL.

 

3- Improvement in accuracy- Another lesser know stat is more starting equating to being better accuracy. Because having the ability to improve with more action would mean a likely improvement with more time seen in the NFL.

 

I think there was a caveat around this that Lopez and everyone else if forgetting.

The study that Football Prospectus did only looked at 1st round QBs maybe 1&2nd round QBs.

There are a ton of college QBs that meet the general rule, but they noticed the difference between High Round Busts and High Round Booms were the High Round Booms met the 26-27-60 rule.

The High Round Busts did not.

 

The commonalities are meant to be used to determine High Round Busts not to determine successful QBs drafted in later rounds or undrafted.

Posted

Thats a good rule in theory. The problems seem to be relating the scores to football.

 

A) Dont confuse a high wonderlic score for the ability to read the defense, or vica versa

 

B) Dont let the poor (or great) talent of a players college team distort the win stat

 

C) Dont confuse completion % with accuracy.

 

That seems to be the biggest makes to me. Lots of completed TD passes in college are interceptions in the pros. Balls have to routinely be on the money in a very very small window. Also the player has to be able to read the D on his own - not look over to the sideline for signals. And dont overlook the talent level of a player, and confuse that with the talent around him.

Posted

The "rule" doesn't work. It's all horseshit made up by sportswriters with nothing better to do now that MLB is the only major sport going.

Posted
The "rule" doesn't work. It's all horseshit made up by sportswriters with nothing better to do now that MLB is the only major sport going.

 

No. As mentioned a few posts up, Football Outsiders came up with a variation several years ago.

Posted
No. As mentioned a few posts up, Football Outsiders came up with a variation several years ago.

...and yet it's still horseshit.

Posted

Here's how our QB's stack up:

 

Name Wonderlic Starts Completion Percentage

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick 48 28 60

 

Trent Edwards 31 31 56.3

 

Brian Brohm 32 33 65.8

 

Levi Brown 28 24 61.2

 

The only ones who didn't meet the criteria was Trent (completion %) and Levi (starts). However, Levi Brown played in many more games than he started.

Posted

I don't understand how they got to 26-27-60. They MUST have needed to use 27 instead of 26 (26-26-60) rule to eliminate some schlub right? But based on their charts i don't see it. Does it just sound more interesting to say 26-27-60?

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