Which Failed QB Would Have Been Most Successful

[PDaDdy]

When comparing Losman to Edwards, 2 significant statistics nobody is addressiing.

 

Sacks - Losman was sacked once every 10.14 dropbacks vs Edwards at once every 15.24 dropbacks

Fumbles - Losman fumbled 34 times in 33 starts vs Edwards 14 times in 30 starts.

 

Sacks kill drives and Fumbles cost ballgames. Not saying that Edwards is great, but you can't just look at his "offensive" statistics. Losman had a severe case of Rob Johnson Syndrome. Edwards is a headcase, but has yet to get RJS. TE is handsdown better than JP.

 

Good points. JP was bad in those regards. Some how the guy still put more TDs on the board and at one point in 2006 actually looked like "the guy" against good teams. JP earned the ire of many fans with his bad plays. Conversely I don't think that Edwards has done anything to deserve his support. I really just don't get it with that guy. He has done nothing but suck, has nothing that can't be easily taught yet he represents hope for the future for some. *sheesh*

[billsfreak]

This is an easy one: Rob Johnson all the way. If you gave him time in the pocket, he could and did eat defenses alive. His career stats are 7.2 yards per pass attempt, a QB rating of 83.6, and 30 TDs to 23 INTs (a 1.3 to 1 ratio). By way of contrast, Jim Kelly had 7.4 yards per pass attempt, a QB rating of 84.4, and 237 TDs to 175 INTs (a 1.4 to 1 ratio).

 

Rob Johnson's downfall was that he took too much time to throw, and therefore took too many sacks. But if you put him on a Super Bowl caliber team (presumably with a first-rate offensive line), then most of those sacks, hits, and injuries don't happen. (The line he had in Buffalo was third-rate, as one generally expects from post-Super Bowl era Bills teams.)

 

Rob Johnson is #1 on this list, because he's the guy most able to benefit from good offensive line play. Back when he had Tony Boselli blocking his left side (with the Jaguars), he looked like the guy at QB.

#2 on the list would probably be Todd Collins, if only by default. He has decent career stats--6.6 yards per pass attempt, a QB rating of 76.0, and a TD/INT ratio of 1.2. Trent Dilfer's career stats are 6.5 yards per pass attempt, a QB rating of 70.2, and a TD/INT ratio of 0.9. Todd Collins could have been someone's Trent Dilfer.

 

Third on the list is Trent Edwards; who has the skill set to be a good backup QB. Unfortunately, he is deeply flawed, as others on this thread have mentioned.

 

Fourth is Alex van Pelt. He played with a lot of heart, but didn't have the talent to back it up. He'd sometimes give you more than you'd expect, just based on his understanding of the game. But it's hard to imagine him having a sparkling career as an NFL QB under almost any circumstances.

 

Last is Losman, who had all the physical tools one would hope for from a QB. Of all the QBs on this list, only Rob Johnson had comparable physical traits. But Losman lacked Johnson's accuracy and his touch on throws. Moreover, Losman's understanding of the game was by far the weakest of any of the QBs on this list. A quarterback with a million dollar body and a ten cent brain is destined to fail even under positive circumstances, as Kordell Stewart found in Pittsburgh. (Incidentally, the same GM who chose Kordell also chose you know who.)

He only started one game for Jacksonville?

[Orton's Arm]

He only started one game for Jacksonville?

I think you're right. But the Bills traded for him based not just on that one game, but also on his performance in the preseason and in college. From what I gather, he had very good play at LT--and hence good pass protection--in all of those circumstances. Which is why he wasn't known as a sack waiting to happen until after he arrived in Buffalo.

[GrudginglyPessimistic]

I disagree completely with you that RJ would have had a different story with a functional team because it seems pretty clear in retrospect that RJs big problem and why he would never succeed as an NFL starting QB was simply that he was injury prone.

 

You are right that he did amass tremendous stats when he was on the field, His demise came because with great frequency when he suffered an NFL hit that virtually all NFL QBs suffer he was gonna miss some PT. I think he earned the label injury prone because something inherent in his bones and connective tissues resulted in him racking up a diverse series of injuries from the standard concussion, to the occaisional hairline fracture to the truly odd landing on the point of the ball and damaging connective tissue in his ribs,

 

You had QB like a Jim Kelly who also suffered a lot of injuries, but something about his body (or lack of a brain) saw him suck it up and be productive often when he was hurt or had him willing to take a cortisone injection and waddle back out there.

 

Jimbo did have his effective limited by recurring injuries to a bursa sac, but RJ raised being injury prone to a new level by not simply having a recurring injury but falling prey to a diverse and sometime bizarre set of injuries which cost him PT.

 

RJs situation also was not one where a Frank Reich could come in and spell Jimbo credibly for three games and when Jimbo was back he was playing. It was a situation where he could not come back in time that he gave Flutie a shot and RJ was history except the owner could not stand signing huge checks for RJ to sit on the bench.

 

RJ was actually demonstrated signs of injury failure in Jax, but the Bills proved so desperate to replace Jimbo they simply handed him the keys to the car with his contract when they should have at least played him 4-6 games to prove himself not injury prone before they gave him the guaranteed deal.

 

RJs agent played the game well by threatening not to sign at all if they did not sign him before the season started. Nice negotiating tactic as the Bills FO caved. Even if he proved to be a stud in those 4-6 games then it would have been worth the premium of paying him extra millions to sign in mid-season.

 

In reality, RJ did not even complete his first game without injury and Flutie would have won the starting job anyway if RJ got to play because he got hurt.

 

It would have been embarassing when we cut or let RJ walk after we paid the going rate of a trade of a 1st round draft pick fro him. However, it was giving him the big contract- having him go down to injury and then DF hitting all of his incentives which forced the Bills to extend him to make the two oversized QB contracts manageable.

 

At least Flutie earned his contract with his play but RJ simply proved he was too injury prone to be productive even with a functional team.

 

This is an easy one: Rob Johnson all the way. If you gave him time in the pocket, he could and did eat defenses alive. His career stats are 7.2 yards per pass attempt, a QB rating of 83.6, and 30 TDs to 23 INTs (a 1.3 to 1 ratio). By way of contrast, Jim Kelly had 7.4 yards per pass attempt, a QB rating of 84.4, and 237 TDs to 175 INTs (a 1.4 to 1 ratio).

 

Rob Johnson's downfall was that he took too much time to throw, and therefore took too many sacks. But if you put him on a Super Bowl caliber team (presumably with a first-rate offensive line), then most of those sacks, hits, and injuries don't happen. (The line he had in Buffalo was third-rate, as one generally expects from post-Super Bowl era Bills teams.)

 

Rob Johnson is #1 on this list, because he's the guy most able to benefit from good offensive line play. Back when he had Tony Boselli blocking his left side (with the Jaguars), he looked like the guy at QB.

 

#2 on the list would probably be Todd Collins, if only by default. He has decent career stats--6.6 yards per pass attempt, a QB rating of 76.0, and a TD/INT ratio of 1.2. Trent Dilfer's career stats are 6.5 yards per pass attempt, a QB rating of 70.2, and a TD/INT ratio of 0.9. Todd Collins could have been someone's Trent Dilfer.

 

Third on the list is Trent Edwards; who has the skill set to be a good backup QB. Unfortunately, he is deeply flawed, as others on this thread have mentioned.

 

Fourth is Alex van Pelt. He played with a lot of heart, but didn't have the talent to back it up. He'd sometimes give you more than you'd expect, just based on his understanding of the game. But it's hard to imagine him having a sparkling career as an NFL QB under almost any circumstances.

 

Last is Losman, who had all the physical tools one would hope for from a QB. Of all the QBs on this list, only Rob Johnson had comparable physical traits. But Losman lacked Johnson's accuracy and his touch on throws. Moreover, Losman's understanding of the game was by far the weakest of any of the QBs on this list. A quarterback with a million dollar body and a ten cent brain is destined to fail even under positive circumstances, as Kordell Stewart found in Pittsburgh. (Incidentally, the same GM who chose Kordell also chose you know who.)

[Thurman#1]

I left off Brohm because it's too early to tell with him.

 

What if one of the failed Bills QB's would have been successful if they entered the league with a team like Brady had, or Pig Ben had?

 

I would say JP with his rocket arm and quicks. Perhaps a hall of fame coach could have instilled enough smarts in him to get over his atrocious awareness.

 

 

 

This is really an excellent question. I read through the responses, and people had made excellent cases for virtually everyone mentioned.

 

My first reaction was to say "all of them."

 

My second was to pick Collins with JP and Trent tied for second and Johnson and AVP bringing up the rear. But as I thought about it, Johnson and VanPelt had terrible situations.

 

I guess I'm back to "all of them." We haven't given a good system, good surrounding personnel and the time to mature to any QB since Kelly.

 

Oh, if we'd gotten Flutie a couple of years earlier, I would have picked him. It was tragic that by the time he was able to show that he belonged in the NFL, he was starting to get too old to belong. When his arm went and he couldn't throw long outs or long balls anymore, teams were able to defense him. Before that, they couldn't.

 

As for those comparing JP's stats to Trent's stats, try comparing JP's stats in 2006 and run the same comparisons. How it actually looks is that Trent, in an offense tailored to Trent's skills, had fewer sacks and fumbles than did JP, in an offense tailored to Trent's skills. If they had kept the offense open the way it was during 2006, instead of revising it to feature all of JP's weak points, things most likely would have been totally different.

[C.Biscuit97]

This is really an excellent question. I read through the responses, and people had made excellent cases for virtually everyone mentioned.

 

My first reaction was to say "all of them."

 

My second was to pick Collins with JP and Trent tied for second and Johnson and AVP bringing up the rear. But as I thought about it, Johnson and VanPelt had terrible situations.

 

I guess I'm back to "all of them." We haven't given a good system, good surrounding personnel and the time to mature to any QB since Kelly.

 

Oh, if we'd gotten Flutie a couple of years earlier, I would have picked him. It was tragic that by the time he was able to show that he belonged in the NFL, he was starting to get too old to belong. When his arm went and he couldn't throw long outs or long balls anymore, teams were able to defense him. Before that, they couldn't.

 

As for those comparing JP's stats to Trent's stats, try comparing JP's stats in 2006 and run the same comparisons. How it actually looks is that Trent, in an offense tailored to Trent's skills, had fewer sacks and fumbles than did JP, in an offense tailored to Trent's skills. If they had kept the offense open the way it was during 2006, instead of revising it to feature all of JP's weak points, things most likely would have been totally different.

 

 

Please explain how guys like Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Michael Vick, etc. can go to the worst teams i nthe league and have success. You really need to put more on the player for their ability to succeed. It's not Pop warner and they shouldn't have their hands held.

[PDaDdy]

Please explain how guys like Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Michael Vick, etc. can go to the worst teams i nthe league and have success. You really need to put more on the player for their ability to succeed. It's not Pop warner and they shouldn't have their hands held.

 

Poor development and a poor team around them without question impacts a players success in the NFL. That being said the quality of the player as a professional and whatever was god given also factor in. Sometimes no amount of coaching and good environment can over come a lack of professionalism or lack of genetically gifted physical skills. On the flip side some times no amount of professionalism and physical skills can over come bad teaching and a bad environment.

 

Stated another way, this is the old nature vs nurture argument. The intelligent take is that BOTH matter. How well did Peyton Manning fair his first few years under center?

[thebandit27]

Please explain how guys like Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Michael Vick, etc. can go to the worst teams i nthe league and have success. You really need to put more on the player for their ability to succeed. It's not Pop warner and they shouldn't have their hands held.

 

+1

 

I'll also point to a guy like Matt Ryan as the ideal example of a guy that went to a horrible team and had immediate success.

 

Poor development and a poor team around them without question impacts a players success in the NFL. That being said the quality of the player as a professional and whatever was god given also factor in. Sometimes no amount of coaching and good environment can over come a lack of professionalism or lack of genetically gifted physical skills. On the flip side some times no amount of professionalism and physical skills can over come bad teaching and a bad environment.

 

Stated another way, this is the old nature vs nurture argument. The intelligent take is that BOTH matter. How well did Peyton Manning fair his first few years under center?

 

The Colts went 13-3 in Manning's 2nd year and 10-6 in his 3rd year after a 3-13 mark in his rookie season; one of his two losing seasons out of 12 in the NFL. He's not the best example to back up your argument.

[C.Biscuit97]

Poor development and a poor team around them without question impacts a players success in the NFL. That being said the quality of the player as a professional and whatever was god given also factor in. Sometimes no amount of coaching and good environment can over come a lack of professionalism or lack of genetically gifted physical skills. On the flip side some times no amount of professionalism and physical skills can over come bad teaching and a bad environment.

 

Stated another way, this is the old nature vs nurture argument. The intelligent take is that BOTH matter. How well did Peyton Manning fair his first few years under center?

 

 

He threw 26 tds his first 2 years. http://www.nfl.com/players/peytonmanning/p...le?id=MAN515097 Also in 2 years, he took a 3-13 football team and went 13-3. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/clt/

 

Losman took over a 9-7 and helped them go 5-11. Losman actually took over a team that was a game away from the playoffs and in a much, much better situation than Manning. Losman struggled to win in conference USA and put up good, but not great numbers, in a very medicore conference. He jsut wasn't that good. The excuses need to stop.

[PDaDdy]

+1

 

I'll also point to a guy like Matt Ryan as the ideal example of a guy that went to a horrible team and had immediate success.

 

 

 

The Colts went 13-3 in Manning's 2nd year and 10-6 in his 3rd year after a 3-13 mark in his rookie season; one of his two losing seasons out of 12 in the NFL. He's not the best example to back up your argument.

 

 

Peyton Manning is a freak and perhaps not a good example but hopefully you are smart enough to get the point. I do like how you listed his TEAMS record in reverse order emphasizing his improvement as opposed to his humble beginning of 3 - 13 in his 1st year. Do you think Losman would have been given the chance to take a team to 3 - 13? NO....he wasn't even allowed to start the full year in 2005 when the team ended up 5 - 11.

[PDaDdy]

He threw 26 tds his first 2 years. http://www.nfl.com/players/peytonmanning/p...le?id=MAN515097 Also in 2 years, he took a 3-13 football team and went 13-3. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/clt/

 

Losman took over a 9-7 and helped them go 5-11. Losman actually took over a team that was a game away from the playoffs and in a much, much better situation than Manning. Losman struggled to win in conference USA and put up good, but not great numbers, in a very medicore conference. He jsut wasn't that good. The excuses need to stop.

 

 

Really? I don't recall seeing Losman or Peyton out there on the field going 1 against 11 on offense. OH...that's right....TEAMS win and lose games. Almost forgot there.

 

Also...here are some notes from sportsencyclopedia about the 2004 season where Mularkey supposedly coached so well.

 

"2004: Under new Coach Mike Mularkey the Bills got off to a rough start losing their first four games including a heartbreaking 13-10 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1 at Ralph Wilson Stadium. After splitting the next two games the Bills began to focus to the future at 1-5 by starting Running Back Willis McGahee who gave the Bills an infusion of life by rushing for 100 or more yards in six of nine games as the Bills suddenly turned their season around as the Bills won eight of those nine including six in a row to get back in the playoff picture. However, needing just a win at home in the final game against a Pittsburgh Steelers with home field already clinched the Bills were mistake prone with three costly turnovers in a gut wrenching 29-24 loss that left the Bills at 9-7 on the outside looking in when the playoff began."

 

Did you forget how AWESOME coach Mularkey couldn't beat a Steelers team AT HOME in a game that meant absolutely nothing to them and missed the play offs? I'm also trying to find the combined win loss record of our opponents too but haven't so far.

[DarthICE]

I left off Brohm because it's too early to tell with him.

 

What if one of the failed Bills QB's would have been successful if they entered the league with a team like Brady had, or Pig Ben had?

 

I would say JP with his rocket arm and quicks. Perhaps a hall of fame coach could have instilled enough smarts in him to get over his atrocious awareness.

 

 

None of them. They all suck and never should have had a shot at being a starter in this league. It is past time to get some real talent in here that also has a brain. We better hope Brohm is the man or get in position to draft 1st or 2nd next year for a QB.

[PDaDdy]

He threw 26 tds his first 2 years. http://www.nfl.com/players/peytonmanning/p...le?id=MAN515097 Also in 2 years, he took a 3-13 football team and went 13-3. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/clt/

 

Losman took over a 9-7 and helped them go 5-11. Losman actually took over a team that was a game away from the playoffs and in a much, much better situation than Manning. Losman struggled to win in conference USA and put up good, but not great numbers, in a very medicore conference. He jsut wasn't that good. The excuses need to stop.

 

You also forgot to mention Manning threw 28 INTs in his first year and 16 INTS in his second.

[Marshmallow]

This is an easy one: Rob Johnson all the way. If you gave him time in the pocket, he could and did eat defenses alive. His career stats are 7.2 yards per pass attempt, a QB rating of 83.6, and 30 TDs to 23 INTs (a 1.3 to 1 ratio). By way of contrast, Jim Kelly had 7.4 yards per pass attempt, a QB rating of 84.4, and 237 TDs to 175 INTs (a 1.4 to 1 ratio).

 

Rob Johnson's downfall was that he took too much time to throw, and therefore took too many sacks. But if you put him on a Super Bowl caliber team (presumably with a first-rate offensive line), then most of those sacks, hits, and injuries don't happen. (The line he had in Buffalo was third-rate, as one generally expects from post-Super Bowl era Bills teams.)

 

Rob Johnson is #1 on this list, because he's the guy most able to benefit from good offensive line play. Back when he had Tony Boselli blocking his left side (with the Jaguars), he looked like the guy at QB.

 

#2 on the list would probably be Todd Collins, if only by default. He has decent career stats--6.6 yards per pass attempt, a QB rating of 76.0, and a TD/INT ratio of 1.2. Trent Dilfer's career stats are 6.5 yards per pass attempt, a QB rating of 70.2, and a TD/INT ratio of 0.9. Todd Collins could have been someone's Trent Dilfer.

 

Third on the list is Trent Edwards; who has the skill set to be a good backup QB. Unfortunately, he is deeply flawed, as others on this thread have mentioned.

 

Fourth is Alex van Pelt. He played with a lot of heart, but didn't have the talent to back it up. He'd sometimes give you more than you'd expect, just based on his understanding of the game. But it's hard to imagine him having a sparkling career as an NFL QB under almost any circumstances.

 

Last is Losman, who had all the physical tools one would hope for from a QB. Of all the QBs on this list, only Rob Johnson had comparable physical traits. But Losman lacked Johnson's accuracy and his touch on throws. Moreover, Losman's understanding of the game was by far the weakest of any of the QBs on this list. A quarterback with a million dollar body and a ten cent brain is destined to fail even under positive circumstances, as Kordell Stewart found in Pittsburgh. (Incidentally, the same GM who chose Kordell also chose you know who.)

 

Rob Johnson? Ha!

He had a 2 second brain in a 1 second game.

And he was fragile. Not just injury prone, fragile.

That combination immediately removes him from this conversation.

Because even QB’s on good teams get sacked and hit (see below)

If I remember correctly, during that big game he had for Jacksonville (with Boselli protecting him), he sprained his ankle.

He would never have made it through a season no matter how good his surrounding cast.

I know, I know. Guys on this board just can't stop saying "what if" when it comes to Rob.

Time to let it go.

 

 

2010 Playoff QBs, Sacks

 

Aaron Rodgers – 50

Joe Flacco – 36

Donovan McNabb – 35

Brett Favre – 34

Tony Romo – 34

Mark Sanchez 26

Carson Palmer – 26

Philip Rivers - 25

Kurt Warner – 24

Drew Brees – 20

Tom Brady – 16

Peyton Manning – 10

[GrudginglyPessimistic]

Rob Johnson? Ha!

He had a 2 second brain in a 1 second game.

And he was fragile. Not just injury prone, fragile.

That combination immediately removes him from this conversation.

Because even QB’s on good teams get sacked and hit (see below)

If I remember correctly, during that big game he had for Jacksonville (with Boselli protecting him), he sprained his ankle.

He would never have made it through a season no matter how good his surrounding cast.

I know, I know. Guys on this board just can't stop saying "what if" when it comes to Rob.

Time to let it go.

 

 

Agreed. While I think one can gameplan aroumd RJs game to take advantage of his strengths and minimize his weaknesses (the game where he lit up SF with some beautiful long pass throws as it forced him to make one read on the CB left on an island against the Bill WR going long and he threw a number of beautiful bombs) unfortunately the D needs to cooperate with a simplistic D and RJ would need to avoid the critical injury.

 

From playing part of a great game for Jax until he got hurt (in the game which attracted the Bills attention) to his poorly contractually managed Bills stint where he could not stay in the game enough to keep Flutie from getting a chance to produce, the notion that RJ wins this poll is laughable.

 

My sense of the players offered is this:

 

TC- Failed by both the coaching staff and FO- In retrospect he was not worth a #2 choice and the Bills had to stretch for him because even this outside observer was surprised they had not drafted a QB the year before to build as an eventual replacement for Jimbo. Making him a #2 not only was a stretch for picking a player I remember as ranked as a 3rd rounder at best. His 2nd round status and the misread of how long Jimbo would last as embodied in the dumb handshake deal by Mr. Ralph forced the Bills to rush him to start before he was ready.

 

He proved to be a credible back-up level talent in the NFL, and the training staff failed to produce with him if PERHAPS another year MIGHT have trained the happy feet out of him which is what he needed to be a credible NFL starting QB.

 

AVP- No one let him down as quite frankly we got all that could be expected to get out of him as a player. He is a great guy and his doughness is a great guy to root for. he was a brainy guy to have on the bench who watched and understood the game leading to him be a passable OC today and making him a great sounding board for the starter. He stayed in the game and was a documented great #2 to come in and play well against an opposing D which has let down its guard after knocking out our @1 (as he did winning one game with a late FG drive, almost pulling out a win against the Raiders and even coming in while Kelly got cortisoned to throw a playoff TD pass.

 

However, time and again also saw him get chewed up and used by an opponent which had the time to study him as a starter and design a couple of Ds meant to disguise coverage as opponents such as the Pats in game at the Ralph and in a nationally televised game against the Jets.

 

AVP developed better than expected as a Bills and we got all out of him that he could give which was to be a solid back-up who was simply not talented enough to start consistently in the NFL.

 

RJ- Talked about above simply too injury prone as a player to be a credible NFL starter.

 

JP- Interesting as he is actually probably the player who could have had more to give if the Bills had developed him properly. He was clearly a talented improviser who was productive behind a turnstile OL in college. He had some rugged first time appearances in a mop-up role as a rookie but also did show improvement and a specific ability to learn from his early mistakes and do better in his next mop-up play. He also was smart enough to recognize that TD was handing him the starting job without him having earned it yet on the field due to TD handling the Bledsoe situation badly.

 

Did JP suck at doing a number of things here? You bet. He never seemed to get the hang of being a stable drop-back passer in the NFL and his play suffered as our O style tried to tame him (to some degree a necessary thing in the NFL where predictability is part of the timing between a QB and his O),

 

However, one would be being stupid not to recognize he is a talented player (the Bills wanted to bench him sooner after he came back in after Edwards first injury causing loss of PT but he actually was playing too well for the Bills to be able to sit him initially. He makes mistakes for sure, but he has demonstrated he learns from them becomes a better QB but simply never good enough to force the Bills to keep him as starter. I think a little more patience and development of a more sound O might have allowed JP to become a better QB for us.

 

Edwards- Possible but the jury is still out for one season. A surprisingly good talent who reads D well, can throw accurately and is more more mobile than advertised. However, meets an objective standard for beng dubbed injury prone (missed PT three time due to injuries to unrelated parts of his body in two seasons. He was coached badly so that his play actually regressed as a Bill. Supposedly has bulked up and will be less injury prone but we will see,