Question WRT The Spiller Selection

[keithg]

I may be ripped for this but I don't think our tackles suck as Billfromnyc stated. I think we have 2 young tackles in Meredith and Bell who barring injury will pleasantly surprise this year and Cornell Green is an experienced and slightly above average tackle. we had so many injuries last year on the o line e were forced to play 3rd stringers most of the year, hopefully we will see a full year from our young tackles and watch as they grow into successful pros.

[MRW]

The Bills took what appeared to be a VERY short amount of time to select Spiller on draft day. Do I have the exact time frame? No, I do not. But, they appeared to waste no time at all to make this selection. The fact that they made this selection in such haste leads me to believe that there was no interest in a trade down under any circumstances.

My question: Do you think that:

 

A) Nix and Gailey we SO certain that Spiller was the best player available that they were tripping all over themselves to make the selection? Or.....

 

B) They were ordered by Mr. Wilson to pick Spiller with the hope that a "flashy" player such as Spiller would be a great move to sell tickets in a bad economy and increase profits, and had no other option given that Mr. Wilson owns the team?

 

I could have posed this question as merely a poll, but I prefer dialogue. IMO, rounds 2-7 indicated that Nix/Gailey, who are (again, IMO) solid football men as compared to the senile Levy and idiotic Jauron, wanted to make the Bills a bigger and stronger football team. This is what the Bills need to be. I am obviously of the opinion that the selection of a small, possibly part time running back was based on asses in the seats and profit much more than actually making the Bills a better football team.

 

I would love to hear opinions on this and appreciate the dialogue.

A. Whether or not it was the right pick, I see no reason to think the Spiller selection was anyone but Nix/Gailey's. If it had been Wilson's orders:

 

1. As others have pointed out, Spiller was not a big name that everyone was clamoring for. In fact the reaction of many was "HUH?"

 

2. One point that I haven't seen made is that I don't believe for a moment that Nix would've rushed to get the pick in if Wilson was forcing him to pick a player he didn't want. Instead I think he'd take his time, listen to offers, and try to find a way to convince Wilson to go another way. This theory of yours doesn't stand up to any scrutiny.

[Dr. K]

Please relax. I wanted to see how the fans on this board view this selection, one which I have seen before. We drafted MaGahee when we had no blocking. It didn't work. We drafted Lynch with a lousy line. That didn't work either.

I am seeing a pattern, one by the way involving the same owner and 3 GMs, and wanted to discuss it on a Bills board. It seems that most fans share your view. You must feel validated.

 

Sorry if going against the party line on the motivation, and lack of success of the Bills drafts caused you any nervous frustration.

 

It has nothing to do with any party line, Bill. You have made your opinion about the offensive line abundantly clear over the last five years. We all know what the previous Bills' drafts have been like.

 

But this "Wilson made Nix draft Spiller to fill seats" theory strikes me more as a production of your _own_ nervous frustration than of any theory based on evidence or rational analysis. It's a result of your own fixations and not on the logic of where Nix and Gailey were when the time came to pick at number nine, or what they had repeatedly said about what they were looking for in advance of the draft, or what Gailey as an offensive theorist has shown in the past, or who was available for them to draft at that spot, or who Spiller is and what his character and abilities are, or even, frankly, what was the best option for the team as a whole.

 

I would never question your devotion to the team or sincerity. But you have what the French call an "idee fixe."

 

With all due respect, as you and I both want the best for this team be both love.

[RI Bills Fan]

Agreed. And the way these wins keep piling up, using top picks on a solid foundation is a moot point.

 

It's funny Bill, but I seem to remember you singing Bell's praises last year at this time.

 

Look at the draft order objectively. Which O-Lineman did you think was a better football value than Spiller at the 9th pick?

 

Even better, which player in the draft was a better football value than Spiller at the 9th pick?

 

Don't dodge by arguing for trading away the pick. Those questions go right to the heart of your original supposition. If you believe that the pick was made not to make the team better but instead to sell tickets then you must believe that there was in fact a better player available at the 9th pick. WHO IS IT?

 

Personally I think you're in your perennial "B word about every draft choice that wasn't a lineman mode." But, that's just me.

[JohnC]

The Bills took what appeared to be a VERY short amount of time to select Spiller on draft day. Do I have the exact time frame? No, I do not. But, they appeared to waste no time at all to make this selection. The fact that they made this selection in such haste leads me to believe that there was no interest in a trade down under any circumstances.

My question: Do you think that:

 

A) Nix and Gailey we SO certain that Spiller was the best player available that they were tripping all over themselves to make the selection? Or.....

 

B) They were ordered by Mr. Wilson to pick Spiller with the hope that a "flashy" player such as Spiller would be a great move to sell tickets in a bad economy and increase profits, and had no other option given that Mr. Wilson owns the team?

 

I could have posed this question as merely a poll, but I prefer dialogue. IMO, rounds 2-7 indicated that Nix/Gailey, who are (again, IMO) solid football men as compared to the senile Levy and idiotic Jauron, wanted to make the Bills a bigger and stronger football team. This is what the Bills need to be. I am obviously of the opinion that the selection of a small, possibly part time running back was based on asses in the seats and profit much more than actually making the Bills a better football team.

 

I would love to hear opinions on this and appreciate the dialogue.

 

The owner has talked about how he enjoys being involved and participating in the draft. Does that mean he made or influenced the pick? I don't believe so. Nix is a cagey fellow. He knows how important it is to keep the owner informed and explain how he is going to handle the draft. That is right thing to do, and the smart thing to do

 

There were some highly rated OTs in this draft. When it got to the Bills turn those tackles (Trent Williams and Okung) were gone. Anthony Davis was a talented player with potential but with concerns about his maturity and work ethic.

 

The Bills took Spiller who was rated at a level where he was drafted. That sure is better than taking a Bulaga type player who filled a need but was rated at a lower level. There is no doubt that Spiller is capable of being a dynamic playmaker. When the aged and clueless owner made the comment that the Bills were a boring team he was absolutely right. There are few opportunities to acquire a genuine playmaker; the Bills seized on that opportunity. Instead of taking a cautious and conservative drafting approach they took a player who can make a Big Play and they got a player who has a sterling character.

 

If you assess our draft as a whole the Bills went big. The second, third, fifth, sixth and seventh round picks were bigger bodies. There were no DBs taken in the draft. Our free agent pick ups in Andre Davis, Dwan Edwards also added some bulk and strength.

 

With Nix you can see a direction and a coherency to what he is doing. So far I am more than satisfied and I am hopeful.

[Thurman#1]

The spiller pick is a clear signal theyre building for 2012? where do you come up with this stuff. RB contribute as rookies more so than almost any position. If anything it would mean they want to win NOW.

 

 

It isn't Spiller himself that shows they're building for the future not the present, it's who they DIDN'T draft in the first. If you're building for the current year, then you fill your biggest holes. We didn't do that.

 

You don't go into the year with our situation at LT and ROLB and WR and ... and expect to win that year.

[Thurman#1]

I may be ripped for this but I don't think our tackles suck as Billfromnyc stated. I think we have 2 young tackles in Meredith and Bell who barring injury will pleasantly surprise this year and Cornell Green is an experienced and slightly above average tackle. we had so many injuries last year on the o line e were forced to play 3rd stringers most of the year, hopefully we will see a full year from our young tackles and watch as they grow into successful pros.

 

 

 

Well, we'll see, but none of these guys have even remotely resembled the way you're thinking about them. Green isn't slightly above average, he's a journeyman who's been slightly below average his whole career. He's still a sttep up from anyone we have on the team, though, so I liked the move, but overrating him early will just lead to disappoinment down the road.

[Albany,n.y.]

The spiller pick is a clear signal theyre building for 2012? where do you come up with this stuff. RB contribute as rookies more so than almost any position. If anything it would mean they want to win NOW.

If they wanted to win now, they would have drafted a position which is one of their weakest, not one of their strongest. Instead they took the best player, rather than fill an immediate need. Teams trying to win now fill holes, they do not go to a position they're already 2 deep in where you only need to be 2 deep. Now they're 3 deep at RB with plenty of room for improvement at OT, WR, TE, & the position they didn't think could be filled this year-QB. Going RB would be the last thing a GM with this roster would have done if his goal was to win in 2010.

[Bill from NYC]

It's funny Bill, but I seem to remember you singing Bell's praises last year at this time.

 

Look at the draft order objectively. Which O-Lineman did you think was a better football value than Spiller at the 9th pick?

 

Even better, which player in the draft was a better football value than Spiller at the 9th pick?

 

Don't dodge by arguing for trading away the pick. Those questions go right to the heart of your original supposition. If you believe that the pick was made not to make the team better but instead to sell tickets then you must believe that there was in fact a better player available at the 9th pick. WHO IS IT?

 

Personally I think you're in your perennial "B word about every draft choice that wasn't a lineman mode." But, that's just me.

 

The way the draft went down (2 top OTs and McClain gone), He would have been my selection. Of course, you took away any option of a trade down with your question.

In other words, I thought that BG was a combination of the bpa and the one who met the needs of the team, giveh the situation wrt Schobel.

 

As for Bell, I have been blasted on this board for being too critical of him. I do think that he is agile enough to play LT btw. But, his strength and size are suspect, as is his ability to avoid costly penalties. And, he is coming off a serious injury. In all, not a pretty picture.

[BillsVet]

Agreed. And the way these wins keep piling up, using top picks on a solid foundation is a moot point.

 

 

It's amazing that in a league predicated on passing the football, the powers that be at OBD believe they can beat teams running the ball without the benefit of good play at OT. I like the guards, but both were high picks for a position that can be found later on. The center evidently had a back injury, so we'll see how he fares. Wang, Bell, Meredith, Green, et al are bargain buys and their play will dictate how the offense functions. Suffice it to say, they are all castoffs or young players not ready to start on most NFL teams.

[Thoner7]

I don't always agree with what you say, but i read your posting as much as everyone's and try to understand your view on things. Just curious though, if you don't think Spiller was the best player available at 9, then what player or players in your opinion were?

 

To answer your question directly, in the order which they ended up being drafted (not me ranking them) I think that Brandon Graham, Iupati, Pouncy, Bulaga, and even Dez Briant were better options at the time. However, I think that the best option was not a player but a trade. Nix was quoted saying they got trade offers, but didnt take them. Well I dont know what those trade offers where, but I would have moved back for sure. After all, BPA can also mean Best PlayerS Available. If I were to have stayed at 9, I would have either taken Bulaga, or maybe taken a flyer on Tebow.

 

 

I think that there were a lot of better options. After all, the idea of BPA is tied hand in hand with value. Is CJ Spiller really 21 picks better than Javid Best - who was picked at 30? If you want to use the draft vale trade chart to see the difference in value, thats a difference equivalent to the 25th pick in the first round, or 2 mid second round picks. I personally dont think Spiller is any better a running back than Best. Better punt returner yes, but better back no. With those aforementioned picks we could have added Tebow/Dan Williams/Jerry Hughes or Cody and Brandon Spikes. I am NOT saying that is a realistic scenario, Im just trying to put it into perspective.

 

But moving back the Bills could have positioned themselves to add any of the 3 OL I listed, by moving back 10ish picks and taking the guy that fell, and adding another 2nd or thirds or anything.

 

I think a 100% realistic scenario could have been dropping back, picking up an early 3rd or late 2nd, and adding Bulaga and John Jerry. That gives us an OL. Jerry starts a G, Wood at C once healthy, Bulaga at LT and Green at RT. If Bulaga cant hack it at LT he can be the best RT in the league once Green is gone in 2 years and we can at another LT. Lynch and Jackson running behind that OL gives us a better running game that Spiller/Lynch/Jackson behind Bell/Merideth and Hangartner

[JohnC]

As for Bell, I have been blasted on this board for being too critical of him. I do think that he is agile enough to play LT btw. But, his strength and size are suspect, as is his ability to avoid costly penalties. And, he is coming off a serious injury. In all, not a pretty picture.

 

At present, it seems as if this organization has decided that Bell and Meredith are both capable playing the critical LT position. There were rumors that the Bills were very interested in Baltimore's Gaither but as of now are unwilling to pay what the Ravens wanted back in the trade. Like you, I am very skeptical over either of these two players being able to handle the position on a full time basis.

 

Sometimes you have no choice but to go with the players you presently have. If you weren't in position to draft the caliber of player you needed or were not willing to give up too much to acquire another player then your options are limited. I have felt that the best way to develop Bell is to slowly give him playing time and increase his time on the field as his play dictates. That is not what is going to happen. It appears that the staff has made the decision that the players are adequate and that they are going with what they got. For me, it is a risk which makes me very nervous. Let's see how this plays out.

[xsoldier54]

So could we all, but I for one see much merit in his comments. By rushing to make the selection, they eliminated any and all possibilities of gaining extra picks. And btw, how many running backs have you seen achieve success on a team on which every offensive tackle on the roster sucks?

It used to be pretty much only me and a few others making this claim on this board. Now, it is common knowledge in virtually every major media outlet (including TSW) that the Bills cannot block.

Bills running backs have gained over 1000 yards in each of the past two seasons. The problem with the O-Line is not run blocking it is in pass blocking. Spiller will be just fine running the ball.

[JPS]

While I salivate over the way Spiller plays the game.....I am wondering if the intangibles as a person are what what made him the complete package that the bills simply could not pass up....

 

Along with playmakers this team also needs true leaders....charactor guys that will be a team guy and lead by example.....and while I am not calling Marshawn Lynch a criminal to me he is a perfect example of someone they are trying to weed out of the program.....me first, wont lead by example, wont stay in shape, etc guys that set examples for what is a very young team.

 

I think this might be what will make Spiller special.....he is a scary playmaker but also when the going gets rough I get the sense he is a guy that others will look to.....guys that will make a offensive linemen actually WANT to move somebody out of the way for.

 

But thats just me.

Great points.

[milehiLou]

three numbers...........4.25

[PromoTheRobot]

three numbers...........4.25

Technically that's one number.

 

PTR

[BillsVet]

Bills running backs have gained over 1000 yards in each of the past two seasons. The problem with the O-Line is not run blocking it is in pass blocking. Spiller will be just fine running the ball.

 

It remains true the pass-blocking has been poor, with the exception of 2007. Unfortunately, running for 1000 yards doesn't automatically make the OL good at run blocking. How many times in the DJ years did the team fail to convert in short yardage situations? It didn't seem to matter whether it was home or away either.

 

Football Outsiders is a great site to gauge how a team succeeds in different situations. Here are the stats for Buffalo's OL success/failure for running and passing. It can take some getting used to, but pass pro was dead last. They were 31st in the NFL in power running situations. Buffalo knows they need more than just a faster RB.

[JohnC]

It remains true the pass-blocking has been poor, with the exception of 2007. Unfortunately, running for 1000 yards doesn't automatically make the OL good at run blocking. How many times in the DJ years did the team fail to convert in short yardage situations? It didn't seem to matter whether it was home or away either.

 

Football Outsiders is a great site to gauge how a team succeeds in different situations. Here are the stats for Buffalo's OL success/failure for running and passing. It can take some getting used to, but pass pro was dead last. They were 31st in the NFL in power running situations. Buffalo knows they need more than just a faster RB.

 

Stats don't always reflect the status of a unit. The Bills did have a gaudy ypc average. But a large portion of that particular stat was derived in the second half of many games when the opposition was winning and willing to loosen up their defense and allow us to run and keep the clock running.

 

If the OL is adept at run blocking and not pass blocking then the line play is inadequate. If the OL is adept at pass blocking and not run blocking then the line play is again inadequate.

 

Will our OL perform better this year even without major upgrades at the tackle positions? It could if the offense is better coached and designed. If the qb play improves that certainly will upgrade the performance of the line.

[Art in PNS]

A Spiller was their player all along unless the top tackle fell to them is my bet. Gailey can design an offense around his abilities and as far as the offfiled issues he is in the Jackson vein not the meshawn vein. If you can't build a wall to protect your QB you better have weapons that can make things happen after the catch.

 

My guess is playmakers are here this year , and the line either gets better or made over after the year is out . Same with the QB .

[Malazan]

The Bills took what appeared to be a VERY short amount of time to select Spiller on draft day. Do I have the exact time frame? No, I do not. But, they appeared to waste no time at all to make this selection. The fact that they made this selection in such haste leads me to believe that there was no interest in a trade down under any circumstances.

My question: Do you think that:

 

A) Nix and Gailey we SO certain that Spiller was the best player available that they were tripping all over themselves to make the selection? Or.....

 

B) They were ordered by Mr. Wilson to pick Spiller with the hope that a "flashy" player such as Spiller would be a great move to sell tickets in a bad economy and increase profits, and had no other option given that Mr. Wilson owns the team?

 

 

Not sure how you missed all the talk on this previously, but it was said as clear as day that teams know who they are taking and and 99% of the 'waiting' was simply grandstanding or prayer by the teams waiting. Nix said prior to the draft he didn't need to spotlight for ten minutes so they would not perform this tactic. It was also stated that it's rare for the deals 'to be made' during that time and it is usually that teams have laid the price out there, it's known what it would take so there is only minor changes and signing the actual paperwork when a trade does happen. It has also been mentioned that some teams simply wait until the pick to make a trade 'just in case'.

 

 

In Short, everything you see on draft day is a stage performance.