The Unintended consequences of the BP Oil Disaster

[ExiledInIllinois]

On a slightly different angle about gas spikes and drops... I noticed prices compete locally. What I mean is that gas stations around an area will follow what the others are doing. Not exactly "gas wars" or deliberate collusion. Once they spike, gas prices just "stagnate" around a set price till one operator starts moving their prices... Then others just follow.

 

Again... For the millionth time, tell me I am out of my Vulcan mind... Prices just don't appear to be that simple... Are there strange market dynamics in play here? The three gas stations around me, CITGO, Shell, and Speedway seem to be follow a common a trend... CITGO takes the lead about moving prices up and down and the others just follow. I know Shell and Speedway literally get their petrol from the same supplier... I have even seen the same truck go from one right to the other!

 

Oh... These gas stations straddle different counties... So there are different tax dynamics in place... It realy depends on the location... I have noticed some even across the border in Indiana (lower taxes) that align themselves with higher stations in Illinois. Opportunistic operators?

 

I guess the "regional blends" don't help either.

[Steely Dan]

First off, this guy suggests that there may have been some sort of collusion amongst the investment banks, and he self-admittingly states that he doesn't know if collusion actually took place

 

 

Please Steely, first you say that the Oil companies are to blame for the high oil prices, and then when you figure out that you have absolutely nothing to support your argument, you dig up some dudes opinion on the investment banks, which doesn't support your original argument. Then you state that our Economy NEEDS low gasoline prices, but yet you support an off-the-cuff reaction of a 6 month moratorium on oil drilling that will lead to lower supplies which leads to what?

 

You are full of contradictions...

 

Ok, let's summarize and then I'm done.

 

I stated market manipulation was behind the high gas prices. (True)

 

I assumed it was common knowledge. I didn't press the specifics because then I would have gotten the LINK? response and I didn't feel like looking into then. I know there was or is still a government investigation (there's a link) into the possibility of illegal market manipulation and that recent legislation had been passed to limit the abilities of speculators. (If anyone knows how that investigation ended or if it's still ongoing I'd like to know. I'm too tired to look. I couldn't easily find an outcome and so I think it may still be ongoing and if it is there is nothing to find.)

 

You tried to tell me that certain speculators would be going against their companies interest to drive up prices.

 

I tried to tell you companies are made up of individuals who a lot of the time care more about themselves than the company and therefore are available for sale.

 

You ignored that because it seems you believe that corruption is almost impossible.

 

I also told you that the first suspects to look at are those who benefited the most from the illegal activity. It seems the oil companies are the people who did here.

 

You seem to think that isn't true.

 

I tried to tell you I didn't know how they did it but it stank to high heaven, but you want facts not circumstantial evidence. I hope you never end up on a jury. I have no idea how a laser works but I can tell you what they can do. You don't need to know how something works to know it works.

 

You then asked me how and who were manipulating the contracts.

 

I got tired of being called an idiot and so went looking for evidence to back up my claims.

 

I supplied two articles answering your two questions. One stating they thought up to 60% of gas prices could be due to speculation.

 

You called the first article one man's opinion after not even, I'm pretty sure, looking at the link. Had you you would have seen that the first article had been written by the former head of the IPECMR. A guy who knows more about this subject than probably everybody on this board combined. I haven't finished it yet but we both could learn from it.

 

I then showed you that both the Democrats and Republicans were so spooked what happened they hammered out a bipartisan regulation on speculators.

 

And I just showed you the feds are investigating or were investigating the circumstances.

 

So our fundamental disagreement it seems is this. You feel there isn't enough proof to accuse oil companies of being behind the price gouging. I think there is. There was less evidence to go by in the California brownouts and that was very simple to sniff out. I didn't know who was doing it or how it was being done but I knew power problems that severe don't happen overnight. I was proven right. You seem to think I need to know how they did it to know they did it. I know OJ killed his wife, I don't know exactly how he did it, I just know he did it due to the circumstantial evidence. While there was a lot more circumstantial evidence in the OJ trial but give me the bruno mali (sp?) footprints in blood matching his shoe size and the testimony of the limo driver and you've got a very good start.

 

So everything I said has been proven true except for the smoking gun that oil companies were involved. You want a smoking gun and nobody has one. I don't think one is necessary. You do.

 

So at this point there is no more point to this. We'll have to agree to disagree. I guess. Even though we fight I really do respect your opinion.

 

 

There's a late spring spike EVERY year because of ethanol. There was one this year. There was one last year. There was one in 2007. There's been one every year since they introduced ethanol. And ethanol absorbs water, which is bad for gas. So OBVIOUSLY, the reason is because every spring some mysterious "they" are "holding back" some sort of ambiguous "contracts".

 

And I did mention the dollar back in '08. That you didn't read it is not my problem.

 

You believed it was the main problem with gas prices. You were wrong. You even ridiculed me for suggesting it could be an Enron like conspiracy because you weren't aware of the Enron conspiracy. I was right about Enron and I'm right about speculation being a cause of the high gas prices. 'Nuff said.

 

BTW, I'll save you the trouble of pasting the last paragraph of the investigation article. I suspect you would anyway and then put a next to it.

 

While Dingell points to loopholes that he says allow distortions in the energy market, the commission says it would be hasty to jump to conclusions until the investigation has been completed. In recent testimony to Congress, the agency's chief economist, Jeffrey Harris, attributed most of oil's meteoric rise to other factors, including a supply and demand imbalance, as well as a weak U.S. dollar.

 

I never said speculation was the sole factor, but IMO the biggest factor.

[Steely Dan]

On a slightly different angle about gas spikes and drops... I noticed prices compete locally. What I mean is that gas stations around an area will follow what the others are doing. Not exactly "gas wars" or deliberate collusion. Once they spike, gas prices just "stagnate" around a set price till one operator starts moving their prices... Then others just follow.

 

Again... For the millionth time, tell me I am out of my Vulcan mind... Prices just don't appear to be that simple... Are there strange market dynamics in play here? The three gas stations around me, CITGO, Shell, and Speedway seem to be follow a common a trend... CITGO takes the lead about moving prices up and down and the others just follow. I know Shell and Speedway literally get their petrol from the same supplier... I have even seen the same truck go from one right to the other!

 

Oh... These gas stations straddle different counties... So there are different tax dynamics in place... It realy depends on the location... I have noticed some even across the border in Indiana (lower taxes) that align themselves with higher stations in Illinois. Opportunistic operators?

 

I guess the "regional blends" don't help either.

 

In my first couple of years in college I pumped gas at an NSI gas station and the manager had to go out every week and write down gas prices for every other station in a 5 mile radius and submit it to his supervisor who would then determine that weeks price.

 

That's all I can give ya.

[NoSaint]

I understand people are heavily involved in this. 11 workers were killed and 17 injured by the disaster. I think letting the idle workers collect unemployment for now is a good idea until they figure out how to keep something like that from ever happening again.

 

I'm still mystified by the fact that nothing had to be pre-planned for a situation like this. I guess less government involvement is a good thing.

 

 

lets be honest, would govt involvement have saved the day? it really seems that a large part of the problem was individuals doing flat out the wrong thing..... what preventative rules could be added?

 

I keep hearing the "747 crashes do you ground them all" thing, which isnt truly a fair analogy even at the the most basic level but this is more and more like if the pilot snuck alcohol on board, and accidently turned off engine black out drunk, and then the plane crashed. the salt water instead of mud, the lack of an emergency call, and a number of other mistakes made.... its mind numbing. however at some level, you cant control something 100% as long as humans are involved.

 

 

i do however agree, how the hell did no one have a plan for the aftermath - if a shutdown is in place, that should be the focus more then anything else. preventative rules are in place, but things even if astronomically rare, may happen and a plan needs to be figured out fast.

 

i just dont think you close down the industry because of THIS incident. it doesnt appear to be a problem government fixes, and that the shutdown with the plans they have discussed is largely grandstanding for votes, and not hitting the core of the issues.

[DC Tom]

You believed it was the main problem with gas prices. You were wrong. You even ridiculed me for suggesting it could be an Enron like conspiracy because you weren't aware of the Enron conspiracy. I was right about Enron and I'm right about speculation being a cause of the high gas prices. 'Nuff said.

 

BTW, I'll save you the trouble of pasting the last paragraph of the investigation article. I suspect you would anyway and then put a next to it.

 

While Dingell points to loopholes that he says allow distortions in the energy market, the commission says it would be hasty to jump to conclusions until the investigation has been completed. In recent testimony to Congress, the agency's chief economist, Jeffrey Harris, attributed most of oil's meteoric rise to other factors, including a supply and demand imbalance, as well as a weak U.S. dollar.

 

I never said speculation was the sole factor, but IMO the biggest factor.

 

You're an idiot. If you weren't an idiot, you'd see how my point of taking infrastructure offline is directly related to your italicized quote. But instead...you're an idiot. There's no point discussing it with you.

[Steely Dan]

You're an idiot. If you weren't an idiot, you'd see how my point of taking infrastructure offline is directly related to your italicized quote. But instead...you're an idiot. There's no point discussing it with you.

 

Just gonna gloss over that whole being unaware of the Enron thing and criticizing me without even knowing the facts? Gonna gloss over that you believed "corn in the gas" was the major factor behind high gas prices. I know gas goes up every summer. (Everybody who buys gas does) It doesn't go up that much though. They're still putting corn in the gas and what's the price of a gallon of gas now. (Hint: it's about 25% than in 2008)

 

I know you are too wuss to admit when your wrong publicly and you call people idiots in an effort to deflect closer analysis of the things you write but that's not happening here. For someone who didn't even know about one of the biggest scandals in US history that had been exposed less than eight years before you sure seem to be unjustifiably proud of yourself.

[Alaska Darin]

Just gonna gloss over that whole being unaware of the Enron thing and criticizing me without even knowing the facts? Gonna gloss over that you believed "corn in the gas" was the major factor behind high gas prices. I know gas goes up every summer. (Everybody who buys gas does) It doesn't go up that much though. They're still putting corn in the gas and what's the price of a gallon of gas now. (Hint: it's about 25% than in 2008)

 

I know you are too wuss to admit when your wrong publicly and you call people idiots in an effort to deflect closer analysis of the things you write but that's not happening here. For someone who didn't even know about one of the biggest scandals in US history that had been exposed less than eight years before you sure seem to be unjustifiably proud of yourself.

 

Nice world you think you're in, Bizarro.