Get ready for the second half of the year.....

[Magox]

And from July 17 to August 12?

 

Come on Dwight: Fair and balanced reporting.

All the macro data has been negative.... consistent with my projections.

 

I pretty much nailed it.

[Magox]

What to expect in the second half of the year:

 

1) Census workers will be coming back to the unemployment lines, or dropping out of the labor force.... See More

 

Check

 

2) Weekly jobless claims numbers have been indicating an anemic private sector labor force....

 

Check

 

3) $8000 tax home credit has expired, last months numbers showed a spike in sales, this will drop off dramatically in the next couple months.

 

Check

 

4) Consumer confidence numbers havn't yet reflected the Stock markets plunge. Those numbers will come off some.

 

Check

 

5) The uncertainty of European contagion.

 

Check

 

6) Stimulus package has already peaked and it's artificial effects will show signs of deterioration Q3 and Q4

 

Check

 

7) China is beginning to slow down (this could be really bad if they drop off significantly).

 

Check

 

8) Uncertainty over the November elections, and the markets hate uncertainty.

 

??

 

9) Three voting Federal Reserve members are already suggesting that we raise rates some time soon (which I doubt will happen).

 

 

 

Lots of things to be wary of going into the second half of the year.

 

Check

 

Sorry to disappoint you JA. But you barked up the wrong tree on this one.

[John Adams]

So for the last three weeks of great earnings, you just decided to take a hiatus...but then today after a 250 point drop, you post.

 

Come on man. Fair and balanced.

 

GM: 1.3 billion profit.

 

Some of the above were not even predictions, BTW, but statements of fact. And some are hardly proven or who knows what effects they are having if any.

 

The DJIA is up a thousand points since you made your prediction. The gold index GLD is down 2%.

 

Bogeymen aren't around all corners.

[Magox]

So for the last three weeks of great earnings, you just decided to take a hiatus...but then today after a 250 point drop, you post.

 

Come on man. Fair and balanced.

 

GM: 1.3 billion profit.

 

Some of the above were not even prediction, BTW, but statements of fact.And some are hardly proven or who knows what effects they are having if any.

 

The DJIA is up a thousand points since you made your prediction. The gold index GLD is down 2%.

 

Things are hardly rosy but you are too inclined to see bogeymen around all corners.

When have I ever opined about earnings? Everything that I ever talk about is on the macro level, correct?

 

What was it that I said to expect out of the second half of the year? Was it about earnings or about the economy?

 

I never made a prediction of where the stock market will go. I made predictions on the economy, and I nailed it...

 

I know you're trying to find something JA, but you're reaching.

[GG]

So for the last three weeks of great earnings, you just decided to take a hiatus...but then today after a 250 point drop, you post.

 

Come on man. Fair and balanced.

 

GM: 1.3 billion profit.

 

Some of the above were not even predictions, BTW, but statements of fact. And some are hardly proven or who knows what effects they are having if any.

 

The DJIA is up a thousand points since you made your prediction. The gold index GLD is down 2%.

 

Bogeymen aren't around all corners.

 

I wouldn't base the state of the global economy on the daily predilictions of equity traders' positions in 30 indutsrial stocks. It's only one of many factors you have to take into account, but by no means does it tell the underlying story. In times like these, the bond market usually paints a better picture.

[Magox]

I wouldn't base the state of the global economy on the daily predilictions of equity traders' positions in 30 indutsrial stocks. It's only one of many factors you have to take into account, but by no means does it tell the underlying story. In times like these, the bond market usually paints a better picture.

I agree completely GG.. Sure, earnings season does have a role and story to tell in regards to the broader economy... If you saw this seasons earnings, which I did very closely, most of the growth came from companies that are tied to emerging market growth. Also it paints a picture of effective cost cutting measures and high worker productivity.

 

Companies will most likely remain very profitable, even in a downturn because of competent management.

 

In regards to the bond market, yes, again, I agree 100%... The bond market is telling us that we are in for a protracted downturn with fears of deflation. Bonds are telling us that stocks are heading lower. Will it? I have no idea, but usually the bond markets get it right.

[John Adams]

I wouldn't base the state of the global economy on the daily predilictions of equity traders' positions in 30 indutsrial stocks. It's only one of many factors you have to take into account, but by no means does it tell the underlying story. In times like these, the bond market usually paints a better picture.

 

Indeed, but ignoring corporate earnings is also missing at least part of the equation and Magox's predictions even note the market so he can't just ignore it and say it doesn't matter.

 

Magox promotes a flight to commodities, advice I follow actually, so focusing on the bad macro **** is good for him. I get that. Just note the posting frequency: Banner earnings season with some bits of good news=silence. Crushing day in the market=post.

[IDBillzFan]

GM: 1.3 billion profit.

Can we have our money back now?

[Magox]

Indeed, but ignoring corporate earnings is also missing at least part of the equation and Magox's predictions even note the market so he can't just ignore it and say it doesn't matter.

 

Magox promotes a flight to commodities, advice I follow actually, so focusing on the bad macro **** is good for him. I get that. Just note the posting frequency: Banner earnings season with some bits of good news=silence. Crushing day in the market=post.

 

I didn't say it doesn't matter. You are putting words in my mouth because you have this Dwight Schtick parallel obsession sort of thingy.

 

I didn't say much over the last few weeks in this thread because there was no need to.... Just about all my PREDICTIONS in this thread (which you seem to be glossing over) have come to fruition. Jobs report number supported my thesis, so have the consumer confidence numbers and housing, which all came out during that time period that you refer to.

 

You were reaching, admit it.

[John Adams]

Can we have our money back now?

 

No ****!

[IDBillzFan]

In defense of JA, it gets a little tiresome always reading the bad things that are taking place and the direction this country is moving. True, there's not much good happening in DC to make one think things will change much, and their policies are making a bad situation much worse, but I understand how it can become a "drane" to read all the bad stuff.

 

Cheer up, though, JA, there is a little good news. Thanks to the Jet Blue flight attendant, the flaming gay hasn't been this popular since Johnny from Airplane.

[John Adams]

My point is not that I ignore there are many macro signs pointing to "bad," it's just that they are not ALL pointing to bad. Recognizing the bad signs, a some of my portfolio is in commodities and even some in a volatility fund.

 

Bad to Magox is also good for his business so in a way, he's optimistic too!

[John Adams]

I didn't say it doesn't matter. You are putting words in my mouth because you have this Dwight Schtick parallel obsession sort of thingy.

 

I didn't say much over the last few weeks in this thread because there was no need to.... Just about all my PREDICTIONS in this thread (which you seem to be glossing over) have come to fruition. Jobs report number supported my thesis, so have the consumer confidence numbers and housing, which all came out during that time period that you refer to.

 

You were reaching, admit it.

 

So instead of noting how accurate you were during the great earnings season, you just happened to wait until after a 250 DJIA point drop to do the "I am right about census jobs running out" dance?

 

You time your posts in tune with peaks in pessimism: Admit it.

 

(This board makes me mental. I'm thinking about joining Lori.)

[Magox]

My point is not that I ignore there are many macro signs pointing to "bad," it's just that they are not ALL pointing to bad. Recognizing the bad signs, a some of my portfolio is in commodities and even some in a volatility fund.

 

Bad to Magox is also good for his business so in a way, he's optimistic too!

I chose to get into my business years ago because I foresaw certain things. It didn't just land on my lap. It's not as if I said "Man, I want there to be bad things to happen, so maybe if I wish it, then the business I open will thrive, Yeah!!"

 

It was more like "Looks like things are gonna be pretty ****ty, I expect currency devaluation, so let me put my hard earned money where my mouth is and open up this business and see what happens".

 

See the difference?

 

I know it kills you that I was right with what I said. You were hoping and waiting to try to to bust me on this thread, and you saw a small opening (which was off base) and you came up with "ignoring corporate earnings" argument. I didn't mention it because it wasn't what the thread was about.

[Magox]

You time your posts in tune with peaks in pessimism: Admit it.

 

FAIL!!

 

That's not how I roll.

 

(This board makes me mental. I'm thinking about joining Lori.)

Dude, you are going mental. If you weren't so obsessed with your preconceived view of me you wouldn't be typing this.

 

Come back when you actually have something on me.

[John Adams]

I know it kills you that I was right with what I said. You were hoping and waiting to try to to bust me on this thread, and you saw a small opening (which was off base) and you came up with "ignoring corporate earnings" argument. I didn't mention it because it wasn't what the thread was about.

 

Here's my first post in this thread:

 

Regarding the dire predictions, I guess we'll see. Dwight ran away when every one of his predictions turned out wrong. At least yours are in the more reasonable category of doom and gloom. More like "malaise and unemployment" than "build a bunker."

 

If this is a prediction thread, I think we're just going to have more of the same...rockiness with a downturn but not a spiral. Probably a few mini-panics as people recall 2008 but most companies are doing OK these days and have recovered conservatively.

 

10% unemployment is here to stay. Some other pieces of bad news are on the EU horizon (Spain and Portugal) and that won't be great for the US economy but it will probably keep the dollar level or even trending up. And China is showing some signs of pain itself, which might not be bad for people seeking safe refuge in the dollar. I can't imagine gold going up another vast amount as it's already so high and its value makes no sense (WTF can you DO with gold? You can't even use it to kill a werewolf!) but maybe it will. I own a bunch and never trust it. I feel like it's my least understood investment and yet it keeps going up...unlike a lot of my other things over the past few months so what the hell? I keep riding the wave. I will be the second person off when that bubble pops though--and I do think it will pop.

 

November elections will create uncertainties but with the climate decidedly a bit more "fiscal responsible," Wall Street may welcome the new blood and certainly will welcome a bit more gridlock to get in the way of the Obama spendathon.

 

So you're not exactly Nostradamus--even I agreed with you.

 

My point is the one LA made. People obsessed with doom see doom and rarely it's opposite. Again: Silent during a month of good news. Post a day after the first significant bad day in a month. Your timing speaks for itself. I have no preconceived view: My view is conceived from your posts.

 

As far as the DD connection, they guy gave you his personal seal of approval FFS.

 

And yes, I am going mental on this board. I stayed away for a month and then was drawn into a debate with OC. Now I'm here talking with you. I keep posting links to pixieland and Darin won't ban me. He revels in my pain.

[Magox]

: Silent during a month of good news.

Only if you were an investor in the stock market could anyone construe last months numbers as good news. Sorry, last month was filled with terrible economic news. You couldn't be more off base.

[DC Tom]

Can we have our money back now?

 

They're having an IPO soon (maybe today), at which point the gov't can start to sell off their share, which will recoup at least some of the money.

[Magox]

Jobless Claims numbers 500,000

 

This is a terrible number. I would say that the odds of a double dip recession are increasing. I would now put it at around a 40% chance. Last month I would of said about 15%.

 

 

“There’s a red flag being waved right now that says ‘Danger,’” said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. “Growth is going to slow in the second half and we might face something a little more ominous than that.”

[Magox]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/three-mor...?dist=countdown

 

Three disappointing, forward-looking reports on the U.S. economy drove investors away from stocks and back into bonds on Thursday, fearful that the economy could stagnate or fall back into recession.

 

Thursday's releases -- initial jobless claims, leading economic indicators and the Philly Fed index -- were only the latest in a series of reports showing the economic momentum flagging. Of this week's indicators, only one -- industrial production -- showed any growth, and that was due to special factors unlikely to be repeated.

 

Jobless claims ticked higher to the psychological threshold of 500,000, a nine-month high. See full story on jobless claims.

 

The leading economic indicators increased 0.1% in July, but have been essentially flat since March. See full story on the leading indicators.

 

And, worst of all, the Philadelphia Fed's survey manufacturing firms indicated that more firms say their business is worsening than say it's improving. See full story on the drop in the Philly Fed index.

 

Manufacturing has been the backbone of the recovery so far, so if the weakness in the Philly region expands nationally, the economy could stumble.

 

The headwinds holding back the economy are strengthening just as impact of the inventory cycle and the stimulus are fading. Unless the economy can find its second wind soon, a self-reinforcing downturn could be inevitable.

 

With Congress paralyzed, the burden of supporting the economy further -- or not -- will fall to the Federal Reserve. Odds are mounting that the Fed will redouble its efforts to pump money into the economy via quantitative easing.