Get ready for the second half of the year.....

[Magox]

What to expect in the second half of the year:

 

1) Census workers will be coming back to the unemployment lines, or dropping out of the labor force.... See More

 

2) Weekly jobless claims numbers have been indicating an anemic private sector labor force....

 

3) $8000 tax home credit has expired, last months numbers showed a spike in sales, this will drop off dramatically in the next couple months.

 

4) Consumer confidence numbers havn't yet reflected the Stock markets plunge. Those numbers will come off some.

 

5) The uncertainty of European contagion.

 

6) Stimulus package has already peaked and it's artificial effects will show signs of deterioration Q3 and Q4

 

7) China is beginning to slow down (this could be really bad if they drop off significantly).

 

8) Uncertainty over the November elections, and the markets hate uncertainty.

 

9) Three voting Federal Reserve members are already suggesting that we raise rates some time soon (which I doubt will happen).

 

Lots of things to be wary of going into the second half of the year.

[meazza]

What to expect in the second half of the year:

 

1) Census workers will be coming back to the unemployment lines, or dropping out of the labor force.... See More

 

2) Weekly jobless claims numbers have been indicating an anemic private sector labor force....

 

3) $8000 tax home credit has expired, last months numbers showed a spike in sales, this will drop off dramatically in the next couple months.

 

4) Consumer confidence numbers havn't yet reflected the Stock markets plunge. Those numbers will come off some.

 

5) The uncertainty of European contagion.

 

6) Stimulus package has already peaked and it's artificial effects will show signs of deterioration Q3 and Q4

 

7) China is beginning to slow down (this could be really bad if they drop off significantly).

 

8) Uncertainty over the November elections, and the markets hate uncertainty.

 

9) Three voting Federal Reserve members are already suggesting that we raise rates some time soon (which I doubt will happen).

 

Lots of things to be wary of going into the second half of the year.

 

I'll be making my way to California during the second half of the year so I think things should pick up.

[GG]

Let's just say that the concern about a double dip recession outweighs anything else on the horizon.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Let's just say that the concern about a double dip recession outweighs anything else on the horizon.

 

Even Middle East conflict? I think not. Want to ensure a double-dip? Have Hizbollah launch a chemical-tipped missile into Tel Aviv. Boom goes Damascus (and crash go the economies) if that happens.

[Gene Frenkle]

Even Middle East conflict? I think not. Want to ensure a double-dip? Have Hizbollah launch a chemical-tipped missile into Tel Aviv. Boom goes Damascus (and crash go the economies) if that happens.

Quite the rational fear you've got there...

 

The Rapture is coming! The Rapture is coming!

[GG]

Even Middle East conflict? I think not. Want to ensure a double-dip? Have Hizbollah launch a chemical-tipped missile into Tel Aviv. Boom goes Damascus (and crash go the economies) if that happens.

 

The conflict will be one of the causes of the double dip.

 

The potential causes are, in no particular order:

 

- Global deleveraging - it's happened in the US consumer & business markets, but more needs to be done in the rets of the world

 

- Structural adjustment - governments need to come to grips that they can't keep going with perpetual deficits; will China develop a domestic consumption market?

 

- China - will you have a massive correction in their real estate bubble, what is going to happen wrt nascent property rights, will you have a peasant rebellion?

 

- Unexpected wars - self explanatory

 

- Stampede factor - markets are not efficeint, and self preservation may cause more shocks.

[Gene Frenkle]

I have thought it my duty to exhibit things as they are, not as they ought to be. - A.H. 1782

That is a great quote from a great man.

[IDBillzFan]

Let's just say that the concern about a double dip recession outweighs anything else on the horizon.

Saw this article at Huffington Post today.

 

Of course, the answer here is to spend more money and extend benefits and work on a New Deal, extend tax credits to the middle class and pay for it on the backs of the rich, "who have never had it so good."

 

We're falling into a double-dip recession.

 

The Labor Department reports this morning that the private sector added a measly 41,000 net new jobs in May. But at least 100,000 new jobs are needed every month just to keep up with population growth.

 

In other words, the labor market continues to deteriorate.

 

The average length of unemployment continues to rise -- now up to 34.4 weeks (up from 33 weeks in April). That's another record.

 

More Americans are too discouraged to look for a job than last year at this time (1.1 million in May, an increase of 291,000 from a year earlier).

 

Of the small number of jobs created by the private sector in May, many came from temporary help services.

 

Which is one reason why the median wage continues to drop.

 

Why are we having such a hard time getting free of the Great Recession? Because consumers, who constitute 70 percent of the economy, don't have the dough. They can't any longer treat their homes as ATMs, as they did before the Great Recession.

 

Businesses won't rehire if there's not enough demand for their goods and services.

 

The only reason the economy isn't in a double-dip recession already is because of three temporary boosts: the federal stimulus (of which 75 percent has been spent), near-zero interest rates (which can't continue much longer without igniting speculative bubbles), and replacements (consumers have had to replace worn-out cars and appliances, and businesses had to replace worn-down inventories). Oh, and, yes, all those Census workers (who will be out on their ears in a month or so).

 

But all these boosts will end soon. Then we're in the dip.

 

Retail sales are already down.

 

So what's the answer? In the short term, more stimulus -- especially extended unemployment benefits and aid to state and local governments that are whacking schools and social services because they can't run deficits.

 

But the deficit crazies in the Senate, who can't seem to differentiate between short-term stimulus (necessary) and long-term debt (bad) last week shot it down.

 

In the longer term, we need a new New Deal that will bolster America's floundering middle class. Expand the Earned Income Tax Credit and extend it up through the middle class. Finance that extension through higher marginal income taxes on the wealthy, who have never had it so good.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Quite the rational fear you've got there...

 

The Rapture is coming! The Rapture is coming!

 

 

Secular Jews don't believe in the Rapture.

 

Neither do moonies.

[Gene Frenkle]

Secular Jews don't believe in the Rapture.

 

Neither do moonies.

How about you?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

How about you?

 

Oh, I do. Not worried about it. When it happens, it'll happen.

 

But that's beside the point. The point is that IF Hizbollah were to attack with chemical weapons supplied by Syria, Syria will pay the price, moreso than Hizbollah itself. Israel's on record saying as much.

[Gene Frenkle]

Oh, I do. Not worried about it. When it happens, it'll happen.

 

But that's beside the point. The point is that IF Hizbollah were to attack with chemical weapons supplied by Syria, Syria will pay the price, moreso than Hizbollah itself. Israel's on record saying as much.

Of course you do! Carry on.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Of course you do! Carry on.

 

 

Thanks for the permission.

[/dev/null]

What to expect in the second half of the year:

 

Damn that George W Bush!

[Gene Frenkle]

Thanks for the permission.

You certainly won't need my permission when you're magically flying away with Jebus!

 

You know it's not even referenced in the Bible, right?

[Magox]

Saw this article at Huffington Post today.

 

Of course, the answer here is to spend more money and extend benefits and work on a New Deal, extend tax credits to the middle class and pay for it on the backs of the rich, "who have never had it so good."

Robert Reich this morning was making the same point this morning on CNBC. I get it, I understand the keynesian philosophy quite well, the problem is two fold for them on this issue. One, if you are going to go this route, then the stimulus they needed to enact, needed to be much larger than it was. Most of that money that was doled out, really wasn't so much stimulus as much as it was maintaining jobs.

 

The idea behind the stimulus was that they were going to get such a tremendous bolt out of it, that the economy would gain traction, and the recovery would take hold. Considering that the tax breaks were so miniscule for each individual, and individual balance sheets were so damaged (stocks and properties mainly), and the fear of losing their jobs, that much of that money went towards savings. Which really isn't stimulative, not in the short term any way.

 

Think of it this way, it was meant to serve as a bridge, on one side was pre recession on the other side is the recovery. The bridge was meant to get us to the other side. The problem is that the distance between the two is much farther than they had anticipated, plus the materials to build the bridge wasn't as effective as they would of hoped.

 

Now they are in a world of trouble, because this Greece situation has now highlighted the problem of what damage deficits can do. The political will to enact a meaningful and effective stimulus is not there anymore. Most of what they have proposed recently, like extended unemployment benefits and state budget short falls help doesn't so much stimulate as much as it just maintains.

 

Now the stimulus effects are wearing off, and the recovery is beginning to stall, and when you add in the problems in Europe and China's inevitable slowdown, things could get quite rocky over the next year.

[DC Tom]

Even Middle East conflict? I think not. Want to ensure a double-dip? Have Hizbollah launch a chemical-tipped missile into Tel Aviv. Boom goes Damascus (and crash go the economies) if that happens.

 

I'd be more worried about Korea than Hizballah attacking Israel attacking Syria.

[John Adams]

2012 is the year of the peak power of the antichrist. He better step his **** up if he's gonna be at peak power in 2012.

 

Regarding the dire predictions, I guess we'll see. Dwight ran away when every one of his predictions turned out wrong. At least yours are in the more reasonable category of doom and gloom. More like "malaise and unemployment" than "build a bunker."

 

If this is a prediction thread, I think we're just going to have more of the same...rockiness with a downturn but not a spiral. Probably a few mini-panics as people recall 2008 but most companies are doing OK these days and have recovered conservatively.

 

10% unemployment is here to stay. Some other pieces of bad news are on the EU horizon (Spain and Portugal) and that won't be great for the US economy but it will probably keep the dollar level or even trending up. And China is showing some signs of pain itself, which might not be bad for people seeking safe refuge in the dollar. I can't imagine gold going up another vast amount as it's already so high and its value makes no sense (WTF can you DO with gold? You can't even use it to kill a werewolf!) but maybe it will. I own a bunch and never trust it. I feel like it's my least understood investment and yet it keeps going up...unlike a lot of my other things over the past few months so what the hell? I keep riding the wave. I will be the second person off when that bubble pops though--and I do think it will pop.

 

November elections will create uncertainties but with the climate decidedly a bit more "fiscal responsible," Wall Street may welcome the new blood and certainly will welcome a bit more gridlock to get in the way of the Obama spendathon.

[Gene Frenkle]

Let it once be revealed or demonstrated that there is no future state [ie, Heaven], and my advice to every man, woman, and child would be...to take opium. --John Adam

Damn - that one-ups the Alexander Hamilton quote.

 

I've got to pay more attention to signatures.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

You certainly won't need my permission when you're magically flying away with Jebus!

 

You know it's not even referenced in the Bible, right?

 

Wrong as usual. You were a Catholic at some point, yes? I'm pretty sure they have no belief in eschatology, which could explain your gross Biblical illiteracy.

 

Here's a small sampling:

 

Matthew 24:30-36

"At that time the sign of the Son of Man will appear in the sky, and all the nations of the earth will mourn. They will see the Son of Man coming on the clouds of the sky, with power and great glory. And he will send his angels with a loud trumpet call, and they will gather his elect from the four winds, from one end of the heavens to the other.

 

"Now learn this lesson from the fig tree: As soon as its twigs get tender and its leaves come out, you know that summer is near. Even so, when you see all these things, you know that it is near, right at the door. I tell you the truth, this generation will certainly not pass away until all these things have happened. Heaven and earth will pass away, but my words will never pass away.

 

"No one knows about that day or hour, not even the angels in heaven, nor the Son, but only the Father. (NIV)

 

Matthew 24:40-41

Two men will be in the field; one will be taken and the other left. Two women will be grinding with a hand mill; one will be taken and the other left. (NIV)

 

John 14:1-3

Do not let your hearts be troubled. Trust in God; trust also in me. In my Father's house are many rooms; if it were not so, I would have told you. I am going there to prepare a place for you. And if I go and prepare a place for you, I will come back and take you to be with me that you also may be where I am. (NIV)

 

Acts 1:9-11

After he said this, he was taken up before their very eyes, and a cloud hid him from their sight.

 

They were looking intently up into the sky as he was going, when suddenly two men dressed in white stood beside them. "Men of Galilee," they said, "why do you stand here looking into the sky? This same Jesus, who has been taken from you into heaven, will come back in the same way you have seen him go into heaven." (NIV)

 

1 Corinthians 15:51-52

Listen, I tell you a mystery: We will not all sleep, but we will all be changed— in a flash, in the twinkling of an eye, at the last trumpet. For the trumpet will sound, the dead will be raised imperishable, and we will be changed. (NIV)

 

1 Thessalonians 4:16-17

For the Lord himself will come down from heaven, with a loud command, with the voice of the archangel and with the trumpet call of God, and the dead in Christ will rise first. After that, we who are still alive and are left will be caught up together with them in the clouds to meet the Lord in the air. And so we will be with the Lord forever. (NIV)