whateverdude Posted May 21, 2010 Share Posted May 21, 2010 With the labor news today and world market turmoil did the economy bounce back into recession? It sure feels like 2008 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GG Posted May 21, 2010 Share Posted May 21, 2010 Don't worry, there's still hope of a recovery when the new financial overhaul passes. Or, maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OCinBuffalo Posted May 21, 2010 Share Posted May 21, 2010 Don't worry, there's still hope of a recovery when the new financial overhaul passes. Or, maybe not. ...when TARP passes... ...when Stimulus passes... ...when Health Care passes... Coming soon: ...when Cap & Tax passes...because...of course it will create more shovel ready jobs...Remember those? Anybody been using a shovel lately? Anyone?....Bueller? ...when Card Check passes....because....more unionized government employees is a great idea...since...they have nothing to do with the current economic crisis...both here and in Greece...nothing at all And, the star of the show: ...when the VAT passes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whateverdude Posted May 21, 2010 Author Share Posted May 21, 2010 ...when TARP passes......when Stimulus passes... ...when Health Care passes... Coming soon: ...when Cap & Tax passes...because...of course it will create more shovel ready jobs...Remember those? Anybody been using a shovel lately? Anyone?....Bueller? ...when Card Check passes....because....more unionized government employees is a great idea...since...they have nothing to do with the current economic crisis...both here and in Greece...nothing at all And, the star of the show: ...when the VAT passes... I'll be the first to say I was wrong about Obama's economic team. They really have no clue or are in the pockets of big business, because they have done nothing to solve the "too big to fail" problems. This economy has really got me spooked. I work in the service sector and felt a turn around last July. This year is a different story, people are pulling back and a bunker mentality has set in. The demand for services is there but they believe they can get it at a discount. In fact it's an expectation now. I don't see things getting better until we see around 6% Unemployment again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Adams Posted May 21, 2010 Share Posted May 21, 2010 It's so funny how many sheeple there are. Dow is down 10% and the world is freaking out. But when the Dow recovered 80% in a year on BAD data, people didn't wonder at the irrational behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted May 21, 2010 Share Posted May 21, 2010 I'll be the first to say I was wrong about Obama's economic team. They really have no clue or are in the pockets of big business, because they have done nothing to solve the "too big to fail" problems. This economy has really got me spooked. I work in the service sector and felt a turn around last July. This year is a different story, people are pulling back and a bunker mentality has set in. The demand for services is there but they believe they can get it at a discount. In fact it's an expectation now. I don't see things getting better until we see around 6% Unemployment again. Well, I can assure you that we won't be seeing 6% unemployment any time soon, and when I say soon, I mean within the next 3 years. The unemployment rate is currently at 9.9%, the Real Unemployment rate is at 17%. Normally the spread between the labor departments official gauge and the Real Unemployment rate is 4-5%. The spread currently is at just a hair over 7%. So in actuality the unemployment hole is much deeper than what appears on the labor departments monthly job numbers. It's not just the hole either, which is deep as hell, but our job market has gone through some major structural damage. There are jobs that were lost that will never return or at least not for a very long time. U.S housing construction and manufacturing jobs gone, and many of those jobs won't return for a very long time if ever. So it's not just a matter of trying to fill the gap, but there is the issue of training and experience. Many of these people aren't qualified to do many other jobs, so there is that dynamic that will need to be addressed. The other thing is that our economy is very heavily dependent on consumers confidence, considering we are a nation of consumers and it is the service job industries that dominate this economy. Considering the prospects for housing are dim, credit is tight (and getting tighter, specially considering the European crisis, and we don't know what sort of exposure there is with our U.S banks with European banks), jobs are lacking, deficits are climbing and now the U.S stock market looks to be in a period of potential turmoil, things are appearing to lose steam once again. The Stimulus is beginning to descend from it's peak, and it appears that the natural recovery cycle is at the top of it's bounce. It is critical that our economy doesn't lose confidence. Over the past few months there have been signs of consumers coming back out again, but many of these people look at their 401K's, IRA's, stock portfolios, and they are beginning to see things that reminded them of what we went through in Oct. of 2008 and that is definitely going to damper consumer confidence. I would also imagine that U.S companies that were on the verge of hiring are now giving this additional thought, considering what is happening with Europe and the global capital markets. Then of course, there is the populist regulations that not only the U.S are looking to adopt but Europe as well. As Mohommad El Erian from PIMCO correctly points out, we are entering into the NEW NORMAL, which consists of tougher regulations, slow growth and higher unemployment. So far he has been spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OCinBuffalo Posted May 21, 2010 Share Posted May 21, 2010 I'll be the first to say I was wrong about Obama's economic team. They really have no clue or are in the pockets of big business, because they have done nothing to solve the "too big to fail" problems. This economy has really got me spooked. I work in the service sector and felt a turn around last July. This year is a different story, people are pulling back and a bunker mentality has set in. The demand for services is there but they believe they can get it at a discount. In fact it's an expectation now. I don't see things getting better until we see around 6% Unemployment again. Hey, you are being honest with us, and more importantly, yourself. There's nothing wrong with that, and in fact it's quite admirable. So far the only thing I see as being "historic" with this President is...the Democrats have given away their #1 issue: the economy, stupid. All of the work Bill Clinton did, and all of the good will he built up in terms of Democrats being more trusted on the economy is now at best marginalized. At worst, nobody is going to trust these idiots to run anything again for a very long time, and why should they? I can't believe that they would just give this issue away, I have to keep reminding myself this is how far we have come. Is there anybody at the DNC that realizes how bad they are getting screwed? It's perhaps the biggest choke in history. How could we have gone from 2008 to here? Simple: This Presidency has politicized everything, and in doing so, has created the biggest backlash in history. Obama has done the exact opposite of what he promised: common sense driving an all out effort to clean up DC and get real results. No, instead we have: proven retarded ideology and fantasy(Global Warming) not driving any clear objectives, paying off DC insiders and special interests thus killing all the motivation and goodwill that was how this turd got elected, and therefore, no chance of results. Since 2006 Democrats have been telling us that we have to elect them asap so they can get to work solving the country's problems. They have done exactly 0 of that, and in most cases, made things worse. Either they don't understand the problems, aren't capable of solving them, or simply lied to get elected. Take your pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whateverdude Posted May 22, 2010 Author Share Posted May 22, 2010 I think you guys a pretty spot on. As far as the "New Normal" and the market goes, yes I believe the days of the 10% a year buy and hold investor are over and we can expect to see 6% returns at best for the future. I can live with stable low return market but not the ripsaw markets we are experiencing now. Ripsaw markets erode consumer confidence which makes doing business very hard for me. As far as Obama's economy team goes he had everything going for him, well regarded bright people with experience and the blessing from the oracle of Omaha. I though we would have gotten a better bang for our buck by now. Things must be in a lot worse shape than they are letting on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Adams Posted May 22, 2010 Share Posted May 22, 2010 I think you guys a pretty spot on. As far as the "New Normal" and the market goes, yes I believe the days of the 10% a year buy and hold investor are over and we can expect to see 6% returns at best for the future. If you get 6% return on your investments, adjusted for inflation, over a long period, you have crushed the market. CRUSHED it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meazza Posted May 24, 2010 Share Posted May 24, 2010 Don't worry, there's still hope of a recovery when the new financial overhaul passes. Or, maybe not. Yet borrowing rates are still low and the green back is doing well. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405..._LEFTTopStories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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