Where did we really reach?

[Hossage]

What are you trying to say here? Are you inferring Ralph is cheap and that is why they picked who they picked?

 

I am saying I think we got a lot of value considering the picks we had.

[Sisyphean Bills]

Mild reach on Troup and I would have preferred Cody to be honest but I am not too mad we took Troup seeing as he is a low to the ground run stuffer who is a motivated worker.

Cody may be the better player, but let's face it. The Bills don't have Ray Lewis. They don't have someone that is going to focus Cody like that and kick his ass until he wakes up and becomes a better player. The Bills locker room is one where no one knows if the games were won or lost and we're just here for the ride cause the paycheck is nice. Troup may have a lower ceiling than Cody; but, hopefully the word that he is self-driven is accurate because the Bills are in a spot where they need that type of player.

[mpl6876]

Get over it. Marshawn is a mystery and Fred is 30 years old. I look forward to reading your posts when CJ lights it up, which I have no doubt he will do.

 

Last time I knew a running back needed a solid Offensive Line to "light it up." Need I say more...

[mpl6876]

It's a philosophical difference. Before I get into what I mean by that, let me say up front that even though I think the Spiller pick was the wrong pick, there's nothing to be done about it now. And, I will be rooting my ass off him to be everything he's hyped to be and more. I'm not not one of those fans who care more about being right than having their team win -- as (I think) you know.

 

Still ... here's why this pick, to me, is such a waste. It comes down to the fact that I believe the NFL has changed drastically over the past 10 years. Back in the 70s, 80s and 90s (and before), teams relied upon 1 RB to carry the load. And while QBs have always been important, it was rare to find a GREAT team (ie: Super Bowl winner) who didn't have a super star RB or a tremendously talented rushing attack leading the way. It was a grind it out, control the clock type of game where DBs were allowed to maul WRs, passing schemes were (by in large) conservative. Scores were low (average were around 20 - 25 per game).

 

The NFL, in an effort to goose the sport, changed the rules (or started enforcing the rules depending on who you ask) for DBs and opened up the passing attack. Scoring went way up as teams started using spread attacks with 4 or 5 WRs on the field at a time. QBs took over the sport even more so and where teams used to run to set up the pass they are now passing to set up the run. The league changed. Almost over night. It's now, 100% a passing league where the team with the best passing attack and the best pass defense wins over the team with the best rushing attack.

 

GMs know this. They began to adjust HOW they built their teams in response to this as can clearly be seen in the most successful franchises over the past decade. And I don't mean just by drafting more CBs, WRs and QBs -- but by devaluing RBs. Why? Because RBs had priced themselves out of relevance. Teams couldn't afford to tie up a large percentage of their cap space on super star RBs when more money was needed for the OL, WRs, DBs, and QBs. So they adjusted. They discovered that RB is one of the easiest positions to transition from the college game to the NFL. The learning curve is short. That means that teams could take the Bronco's model and take any RB and turn him into a productive threat. So, they started going with tandum backfields. RB by committee.

 

The success was evident on the field. Teams found that they could get the SAME production, if not more, by using two RBs found late in the draft or on the FA market. Look at the stats from the league's top offenses last year (NFL.com has a great stat sorting tool you can use -- I dug up all these stats before and don't feel like doing it again right now so I'll paraphrase) and you'll find that the top 5 offensive teams didn't have a marquee RB. They had talented backs, but none that you'd consider a superstar. Look at the top RUSHING teams and you'll see much of the same thing -- only the top rushing teams by in large weren't playoff teams. Rather they were on the outside looking in.

 

Specific examples: New Orleans used 4 RBs, none of them marquee (I'm sorry, Bush doesn't count as marquee because he's been a tremendous disappointment based on where he was drafted and the hype surrounding him), Indy got rid of James for a RB by committee approach and while Adai and Brown are good neither are super stars (though Brown was a first round pick -- more on that later), The Pats haven't had a super star RB ... ever, The Giants, Steelers, all used committees ... the list goes on. These teams are not defined by their running backs or even their running game even though they have good ones. They are all defined by their passing attacks and defense. That's how you get a winner in this new NFL.

 

Take a look at the example in Tennessee. Tennessee went 15-1 with their RB by committee approach using White and Johnson. Then, they abandoned that in favor of using JUST Johnson and they wound up going 8-8 with no playoffs. Were there other factors? Sure. But people here want to say Spiller is the next Johnson -- yet Johnson just proved that he can't do it by himself in Tennessee.

 

There's just no point in using high draft picks on RBs unless your team is one player away from being a super bowl contender. RBs lifespans are the shortest in the league (they all seem to hit the wall at 30), and since you can find equal production from 2 lesser/cheaper players later in the draft or FA there's no logic in using a high pick to take one early. The best, most successful teams in the leauge the past decade know this and have acted accordingly. Yet the Bills have not. They have used not 1, not 2, but THREE first round picks in the past 6 years on RBs. Think about that. THREE first round picks on a position where, their most productive player during that stretch was found in NFL Europe.

 

I don't think it's at all a coincidence that in those 6 years these Bills teams have been at the bottom of the barrell in the AFC East and the NFL in general. The team has been mishandled for over a decade. Built, and torn down. Rebuilt and torn down again. Only every time they seem to start with the same principle: RB is the key. And I'm sorry. It's not. Maybe in 1985. But not in 2010. RB is, perhaps, the least important position on the field.

 

The old timers will be screaming: "We play in Buffalo! You can't win in the cold and snow of December and January without a grinding running game". That is the WORST, and most incorrect excuse I hear on here. First, when's the last time the Bills have been in a playoff game in the snow? Second, NE, Pittsburgh, the Giants all made it just fine using RB by committee in the winter.

 

What Spiller brings to the table is a playmaker who "can score anytime he touches the ball". Sure. That's true if he lives up to the hype. He will bust a few long ones this year. If he's REAL good he'll take one to the house a game (on a long run I mean). Maybe 1 every other game -- even that would be great. But what would you rather have? An OFFENSE who can score every time it's on the field -- which requires a QB, WRs, and OL. Or a player who can break long runs off once or twice a game?

 

Therein lies my point. The Bills already have enough talent at RB to win in this modern NFL. What they don't have is the pieces for the rest of the puzzle. People all say "Fred is 30, Marshawn is a thug" ... and I'd argue even if that's true, the answer is NOT taking yet ANOTHER first round RB, but rather building a RB by committee through the later rounds in the draft and free agency. That's how you build a winning team.

 

The Bills could have traded back. With such a deep draft are you willing to say that NONE of the players taken after the number 9 pick at either: OT, OG, DL, LB, WR, QB will become probowl/franchise type players? But the Bills didn't even consider trading back because Spiller was their guy all along. He's who they wanted. And that to me shows that they just don't understand that the game has changed. They're stuck in the past. And we as fans are going to be the ones who pay for that.

 

Fantastic analysis!!! I agree with most everything you said.

[mpl6876]

tgreg99

 

Your thinking is flawed. All those teams that you mention that use the committee approach have taken RB's in the 1st round, sometimes multiple times. Whether or not they are super stars isn't the point, they all used high picks on the position. It is still very relevant to have a good run game to help your passing attack and teams still place a premium on the RB position.

 

New Orleans - Bush #2 pick overall

Indy - Adai and Brown were both 1st round picks

Tennessee - Johnson 1st round

Steelers - Mendenhall 1st round

Carolina - Williams and Stewart 1st round

New England - Maroney 1st round

Dallas - Jones 1st round

 

I threw in a couple others for you just to point out that it may be a committee but the teams are still taking the position high.

A running game that dominates makes it easier for a QB, so maybe that's part of what Chan is thinking. Spiller is fast enough and explosive enough that he doesn't need the best line because all he needs is just a crease for a spit second and he's gone.

 

It is pretty well known that high quaility running back can be taken in the later rounds. You are taking what he said out of context.The Bills must really be sold on this kid. I am not and niether were the 8 times before us. (Reminds me of Reggie Bush) I think a football game is won between the lines -offensive and defensive lines. The Bills are weak on both sides of the ball. You can talk about how Spiller is explosive and I agree. He may not need much room to run. However, the last time I looked a running back is only as good as his OL...

[mob16151]

Last time I knew a running back needed a solid Offensive Line to "light it up." Need I say more...

 

Last I checked a great RB could make an average O line look very good.

[Thunderstealer]

I agree about Easley, I think his awesomeness will sneak up on Bills fans a la Jairus Byrd 2009.

He's a big dude. Bills have size at that position.

[jahnyc]

Troup was a reach, at least according to the so called draft experts, periodicals and the Dallas Cowboys draft board (who had him listed as a fourth rounder).

 

Seems we go through this often, where the draft experts criticize an early pick by the Bills as a reach and the Bills front office wants us to believe that they know better. Unfortunately, over the last number of years, such as with McCargo and Whitner, the draft experts have been the ones to get it right. The Bills also seem to get it wrong when there are more than a few highly rated prospects at a position of need. At this early point in time, it seems that Orapko should have been the pick over Maybin (but we will see).

 

I am hoping for the best with Troup. The problem for me is that the same people who have been evaluating college players (Modrak and his team) for the last 10 years are still doing the evaluating. Hopefully, Nix makes a huge difference, and last year's draft, other than Maybin, appears to have been a strong draft.

[Rob's House]

You try to seem like you are a scout and have a handle on knowing all about the players and how they will fare to some degree. There are many factors to take into consideration and unless you are on the inside you really don't know and are either just being a parrot repeating what you hear others say or guessing...

...

I know I'm ready for some football, some wings, some snow at the Ralph, and some wins! Let's Go Bills!!!

 

That was a lot of writing to basically 1) Insult someone for raising a question, 2) Assert that no one knows anything so no one should have an opinion, and 3) That you hope everything works out and you want some wings.

 

Awesome post!!

[disco]

Still ... here's why this pick, to me, is such a waste. It comes down to the fact that I believe the NFL has changed drastically over the past 10 years. Back in the 70s, 80s and 90s (and before), teams relied upon 1 RB to carry the load. And while QBs have always been important, it was rare to find a GREAT team (ie: Super Bowl winner) who didn't have a super star RB or a tremendously talented rushing attack leading the way. It was a grind it out, control the clock type of game where DBs were allowed to maul WRs, passing schemes were (by in large) conservative. Scores were low (average were around 20 - 25 per game).

 

...Therein lies my point. The Bills already have enough talent at RB to win in this modern NFL. What they don't have is the pieces for the rest of the puzzle. People all say "Fred is 30, Marshawn is a thug" ... and I'd argue even if that's true, the answer is NOT taking yet ANOTHER first round RB, but rather building a RB by committee through the later rounds in the draft and free agency. That's how you build a winning team.

 

The Bills could have traded back. With such a deep draft are you willing to say that NONE of the players taken after the number 9 pick at either: OT, OG, DL, LB, WR, QB will become probowl/franchise type players? But the Bills didn't even consider trading back because Spiller was their guy all along. He's who they wanted. And that to me shows that they just don't understand that the game has changed. They're stuck in the past. And we as fans are going to be the ones who pay for that.

 

First, I think I could rewrite your novel of a post in one paragraph. Good lord. And even more impressively I can dissolve your entire thesis in two words:

 

LaDainian Tomlinson.

 

In your post year 2000 "100% passing league" the Chargers did exactly what you claim can't be done: rebuilt the team around a first round RB pick. They started with Tomlinson in 2001. Yes, they also drafted Brees that year in the second - and if Nix believed in Clausen he could have mirrored that 2001 Chargers draft. They added Jammer in 2002, Rivers in 2004, Merriman 2005, Cromartie 2006...

 

Have they won a Super Bowl? No, not yet. Are they in the position every Bills fan would like to be in? YES.

 

I am, of course, giving you the history of Buddy Nix. His first draft in San Diego was in 2001....and he started at RB. He NEVER, not once, drafted an OL in the first round. In fact, the San Diego Chagers starting OL from last year:

 

LT Marcus McNeill (2x Pro Bowler, 2nd round 2006)

LG Kris Dielman (3x PB, undrafted)

C Scott Mruczkowski (7th round 2005)

RG Louis Vasquez (3rd round 2009)

RT Jeromey Clary (6th round 2006)

 

Historically, their OL is riddled with late round selections.

 

Nix has a very clear formula of how he wants to build this franchise - and if you'd like the preview, please reference SD's draft history from 01-09:

http://www.databasefootball.com/draft/draf...=SDG&lg=nfl

 

We didn't bring Nix here to draft according to draft experts or forum posters. We didn't bring him here handicapped by our prior draft failures.

 

Ignore everything that happened before. For Nix, it's a clean slate. We brought him here to duplicate the successful blueprint he had in SD. And what you called a "terrible, terrible waste of a pick" is the start of it.

 

I will close with the Buddy Nix San Diego Career Summary via Wikipedia:

 

"Nix left Buffalo with John Butler and A. J. Smith after the 2000 season. He was initially the Director of Pro Player Personnel (2000–2001), but after Butler died, Smith was promoted to General Manager, and Nix to Assistant General Manager.

 

Nix's job with the Chargers was to oversee both pro and college scouting and to be one of the main decision makers in each NFL Draft. Nix was a major reason the Chargers turned around from a losing football team to a rebuilt, winning team. In 2004, three players Nix drafted were selected to the 2005 Pro Bowl. In 2005, six players Nix drafted were selected to the 2006 Pro Bowl. In 2006, eleven players Nix drafted were selected to the 2007 Pro Bowl. In 2007, eight players Nix drafted were selected to the 2008 Pro Bowl.

 

The Chargers won four out of the last five AFC West titles with Nix as Assistant GM and Director of Player Personnel, in charge of college scouting and instrumental to the decision making process of their NFL drafts."

[tonyjustbcuz]

That was a lot of writing to basically 1) Insult someone for raising a question, 2) Assert that no one knows anything so no one should have an opinion, and 3) That you hope everything works out and you want some wings.

 

Awesome post!!

 

 

For being a lot of writing It sure seems unfair to anayze my complete post based on 4 lines, wouldn't u say? I never asserted that, as you say "no one knows anything", which is silly as their are many superb posters on here and many intelligent people. Yes, I have to admit that I do come off sounding like I think I am an authority on the subject, and have confidence in what I believe I know, and a condescending attitude can sound similar, yet be different as reading between lines or trying to hear the tone of the voice who wrote something is difficult. But, I apologize to anyone who feels insulted out there as I appreciate your love and compassion for the Bills. I also share those feelings! A decade of being critical of the Bills might be understandable after the decade we just went through? I have become a cynic, and tend to be negative on optimism. That is not good, and I have decided to try and look at the positive potential of the team. It may not be easy, but you'll see my next topic of what is right with the Bills very soon! I'm actually a little bit excited about that post...as it's been a while since I have wrote much positive about the Bills either on this site or others. I know football, and although I love the Buffalo Bills, Sabres, Bisons, Bandits, UB, etc.....I have tried to seperate my emotion, and my Love for the team when it comes to critiquing there strengths, weaknesses, and what I believe the future has in store, based on development, coaching, transactions, injuries, and all the other pertinent things that go into building a football team. So, your opinion is valued, and may even inspire me to look at the other side of things! Sometimes, I strive to get

a good reaction to a post, and maybe deep down I want to inspire someone to write a worthwhile post based on what they believe about what is right about the Bills. Self-admittedly that person hasn't been me, but I'm going to give it a good effort today or tomorrow when the kids are sleeping. Hopefully my next post will truly be awesome in a legitimate way, and someday we'll laugh about it as the Bill's select a player in the draft with their 32nd pick in the first round!!!! Yes, I said 32nd (Finally, as the 5th time is the Golden Ring!!!)..

[profile]

I honestly look at the Spiller pick as the one can't miss pick this team ever faced. If he turns into the player I think he will, there won't be one person who follows this team that will look back and say, we shoulda.

 

This pick has that same feel as the Bruce Smith pick...

 

I am of the camp that did not want any of those QBs(tebow/claussen/mcCoy) other than Bradford, we already have a group of QBs who may not add any value to the team this year....

[yungmack]

According to NFLDraftscout.com this is where our draft class projected and where we drafted them:

 

C.J. Spiller Projected 1st Rd, Drafted 1st Rd

Troup Projected 2-3 Rd, Drafted 2 Rd (high second, but hard working true NT)

Carrington Projected 2 Rd, Drafted 3rd Rd

Easley Projected 3rd Rd, Drafted 4th Rd

Wang Projected 3rd Rd, Drafted 5th Rd

Batten Projected 6-7 Rd, Drafted 6th Rd

Levi Brown Projected 4-5 Rd, Drafted 7th Rd

Calloway Projected 6-7 Rd, Drafted 7th Rd

 

So where is the reach and why were the Bills not credited for getting value at the picks? Every guy was projected to go at the pick or earlier.

 

What if we would have drafted Levi Brown where he projected or Wang for that matter? Would they be saying (DraftNiks) we got "The Guy"?

 

I think Troup, Spiller, Carrington are starters, Wang is mid to late year starter and Undrafted Antonio Coleman out plays Maybin.

 

I think maybe we have and I also think that we drafted more then one of "The Guys"

 

Thoughts?

Stop making sense!

[yungmack]

It should be obvious that we reached for everybody, why take spiller when Clausen was there for the taking, never mind the fact that he plummeted past us, again, in rd 2. why take a NT so early, everybody knows NT's are easy to find, we shouldve drafted a project RT at our 2 spot and hoped he can play LT. And why take a prototype 3-4 end in rd 3, moorman is getting old and we have NO ONE to groom behind him.

 

Clearly, Nix has not listened to the drafting genius of mel kiper, todd mcshay, john clayton, or any of the other naysayers, other wise we would be on the right track.

 

sheesh

Yep, the Bills passed on Clausen...along with every other team in the NFL. So I guess Nix is a moron and the other GMs are astute talent evaluators.

 

Clausen may or may not become a top QB (my guess is not). I bear the kid no ill will. But I doubt he will contribute this year or even next year whereas Spiller will make an immediate impact.

[yungmack]

I only disagree with one portion of your post. It's going to take Wang a lot longer than the 8th game to late year to become a starter. It won't even be next year. He's a project in every sense of the word. I feel like he'll need to go through at least 2 off season NFL training programs to build upper body strength, etc.

And you know this how?

[yungmack]

First, I think I could rewrite your novel of a post in one paragraph. Good lord. And even more impressively I can dissolve your entire thesis in two words:

 

LaDainian Tomlinson.

 

In your post year 2000 "100% passing league" the Chargers did exactly what you claim can't be done: rebuilt the team around a first round RB pick. They started with Tomlinson in 2001. Yes, they also drafted Brees that year in the second - and if Nix believed in Clausen he could have mirrored that 2001 Chargers draft. They added Jammer in 2002, Rivers in 2004, Merriman 2005, Cromartie 2006...

 

Have they won a Super Bowl? No, not yet. Are they in the position every Bills fan would like to be in? YES.

 

I am, of course, giving you the history of Buddy Nix. His first draft in San Diego was in 2001....and he started at RB. He NEVER, not once, drafted an OL in the first round. In fact, the San Diego Chagers starting OL from last year:

 

LT Marcus McNeill (2x Pro Bowler, 2nd round 2006)

LG Kris Dielman (3x PB, undrafted)

C Scott Mruczkowski (7th round 2005)

RG Louis Vasquez (3rd round 2009)

RT Jeromey Clary (6th round 2006)

 

Historically, their OL is riddled with late round selections.

 

Nix has a very clear formula of how he wants to build this franchise - and if you'd like the preview, please reference SD's draft history from 01-09:

http://www.databasefootball.com/draft/draf...=SDG&lg=nfl

 

We didn't bring Nix here to draft according to draft experts or forum posters. We didn't bring him here handicapped by our prior draft failures.

 

Ignore everything that happened before. For Nix, it's a clean slate. We brought him here to duplicate the successful blueprint he had in SD. And what you called a "terrible, terrible waste of a pick" is the start of it.

 

I will close with the Buddy Nix San Diego Career Summary via Wikipedia:

 

"Nix left Buffalo with John Butler and A. J. Smith after the 2000 season. He was initially the Director of Pro Player Personnel (2000–2001), but after Butler died, Smith was promoted to General Manager, and Nix to Assistant General Manager.

 

Nix's job with the Chargers was to oversee both pro and college scouting and to be one of the main decision makers in each NFL Draft. Nix was a major reason the Chargers turned around from a losing football team to a rebuilt, winning team. In 2004, three players Nix drafted were selected to the 2005 Pro Bowl. In 2005, six players Nix drafted were selected to the 2006 Pro Bowl. In 2006, eleven players Nix drafted were selected to the 2007 Pro Bowl. In 2007, eight players Nix drafted were selected to the 2008 Pro Bowl.

 

The Chargers won four out of the last five AFC West titles with Nix as Assistant GM and Director of Player Personnel, in charge of college scouting and instrumental to the decision making process of their NFL drafts."

Superb post. Thanks for it.

[95altima12]

I think the Spiller has the ability to account for 40 to 50% of our yardage production be it Special teams or offense. Lynch is going to put himself on a short list out of town if he doesn't man -up and show -up

 

"Lynch is going to put himself on a short list out of town if he doesn't man -up and show -up"

 

Maybe he read your post!!!!!!

[Orton's Arm]

I completely agree that these three were reaches; however, I have been doing some analysis of the player drafted by other team compared to who the Bills drafted, and I found that the Bills, by far, drafted the most small school prospects.

 

I am convinced that this OBD strategy, for two reasons. One, the players will be more motivated to play for a small market team compared to players from USC, Miami or Texas, since the Bills are now the big time. Think the anti-Mike Williams. I truly believe this is why the Bills selected Troupe over Mount Cody or Cam Thomas. Two, the Bills believe that they can find gems in the smaller schools because they aren't as well know. For the second point, I think that Nix having been the head of scouting has a belief that the scouting department can find these players.

 

The national press will always give lower grades to the Bills for selecting players who are from small schools because the players aren't as well known as the one's who play in nationally televised games.

 

As far as Spiller, I'm not sure how important a left tackle is since Arizona got to the Super Bowl with Mike Gandy. How many people here would like to have him back? He's available.

Yours is a very solid overall post. But I disagree with the last paragraph. Yes, Arizona got to the Super Bowl with Mike Gandy. But the St. Louis Rams won the Super Bowl with Orlando Pace.

 

Trent Dilfer + decent receiving corps + Jon Ogden = mediocre offense. (Ravens' offense of 2000.)

Kurt Warner + elite WR corps + Mike Gandy = Arizona offense. (Good, but vulnerable to elite defenses.)

Kurt Warner + elite WR corps + Orlando Pace = Greatest Show on Turf. (Nearly unstoppable.)

 

If you want to beat a guy like Joe Montana or Tom Brady or Kurt Warner, your best bet is to knock him on his back. Don't give him any time to throw. Get him rattled. If you have an elite quarterback and Orlando Pace at LT, you're a lot less vulnerable to that kind of aggressive defense than you'd be if Mike Gandy was your LT instead. When Arizona's offense faltered, it was because Mike Gandy and their other blockers were unable to keep Kurt Warner upright and protected.

[Orton's Arm]

It's a philosophical difference. Before I get into what I mean by that, let me say up front that even though I think the Spiller pick was the wrong pick, there's nothing to be done about it now. And, I will be rooting my ass off him to be everything he's hyped to be and more. I'm not not one of those fans who care more about being right than having their team win -- as (I think) you know.

 

Still ... here's why this pick, to me, is such a waste. It comes down to the fact that I believe the NFL has changed drastically over the past 10 years. Back in the 70s, 80s and 90s (and before), teams relied upon 1 RB to carry the load. And while QBs have always been important, it was rare to find a GREAT team (ie: Super Bowl winner) who didn't have a super star RB or a tremendously talented rushing attack leading the way. It was a grind it out, control the clock type of game where DBs were allowed to maul WRs, passing schemes were (by in large) conservative. Scores were low (average were around 20 - 25 per game).

 

The NFL, in an effort to goose the sport, changed the rules (or started enforcing the rules depending on who you ask) for DBs and opened up the passing attack. Scoring went way up as teams started using spread attacks with 4 or 5 WRs on the field at a time. QBs took over the sport even more so and where teams used to run to set up the pass they are now passing to set up the run. The league changed. Almost over night. It's now, 100% a passing league where the team with the best passing attack and the best pass defense wins over the team with the best rushing attack.

 

GMs know this. They began to adjust HOW they built their teams in response to this as can clearly be seen in the most successful franchises over the past decade. And I don't mean just by drafting more CBs, WRs and QBs -- but by devaluing RBs. Why? Because RBs had priced themselves out of relevance. Teams couldn't afford to tie up a large percentage of their cap space on super star RBs when more money was needed for the OL, WRs, DBs, and QBs. So they adjusted. They discovered that RB is one of the easiest positions to transition from the college game to the NFL. The learning curve is short. That means that teams could take the Bronco's model and take any RB and turn him into a productive threat. So, they started going with tandum backfields. RB by committee.

 

The success was evident on the field. Teams found that they could get the SAME production, if not more, by using two RBs found late in the draft or on the FA market. Look at the stats from the league's top offenses last year (NFL.com has a great stat sorting tool you can use -- I dug up all these stats before and don't feel like doing it again right now so I'll paraphrase) and you'll find that the top 5 offensive teams didn't have a marquee RB. They had talented backs, but none that you'd consider a superstar. Look at the top RUSHING teams and you'll see much of the same thing -- only the top rushing teams by in large weren't playoff teams. Rather they were on the outside looking in.

 

Specific examples: New Orleans used 4 RBs, none of them marquee (I'm sorry, Bush doesn't count as marquee because he's been a tremendous disappointment based on where he was drafted and the hype surrounding him), Indy got rid of James for a RB by committee approach and while Adai and Brown are good neither are super stars (though Brown was a first round pick -- more on that later), The Pats haven't had a super star RB ... ever, The Giants, Steelers, all used committees ... the list goes on. These teams are not defined by their running backs or even their running game even though they have good ones. They are all defined by their passing attacks and defense. That's how you get a winner in this new NFL.

 

Take a look at the example in Tennessee. Tennessee went 15-1 with their RB by committee approach using White and Johnson. Then, they abandoned that in favor of using JUST Johnson and they wound up going 8-8 with no playoffs. Were there other factors? Sure. But people here want to say Spiller is the next Johnson -- yet Johnson just proved that he can't do it by himself in Tennessee.

 

There's just no point in using high draft picks on RBs unless your team is one player away from being a super bowl contender. RBs lifespans are the shortest in the league (they all seem to hit the wall at 30), and since you can find equal production from 2 lesser/cheaper players later in the draft or FA there's no logic in using a high pick to take one early. The best, most successful teams in the leauge the past decade know this and have acted accordingly. Yet the Bills have not. They have used not 1, not 2, but THREE first round picks in the past 6 years on RBs. Think about that. THREE first round picks on a position where, their most productive player during that stretch was found in NFL Europe.

 

I don't think it's at all a coincidence that in those 6 years these Bills teams have been at the bottom of the barrell in the AFC East and the NFL in general. The team has been mishandled for over a decade. Built, and torn down. Rebuilt and torn down again. Only every time they seem to start with the same principle: RB is the key. And I'm sorry. It's not. Maybe in 1985. But not in 2010. RB is, perhaps, the least important position on the field.

 

The old timers will be screaming: "We play in Buffalo! You can't win in the cold and snow of December and January without a grinding running game". That is the WORST, and most incorrect excuse I hear on here. First, when's the last time the Bills have been in a playoff game in the snow? Second, NE, Pittsburgh, the Giants all made it just fine using RB by committee in the winter.

 

What Spiller brings to the table is a playmaker who "can score anytime he touches the ball". Sure. That's true if he lives up to the hype. He will bust a few long ones this year. If he's REAL good he'll take one to the house a game (on a long run I mean). Maybe 1 every other game -- even that would be great. But what would you rather have? An OFFENSE who can score every time it's on the field -- which requires a QB, WRs, and OL. Or a player who can break long runs off once or twice a game?

 

Therein lies my point. The Bills already have enough talent at RB to win in this modern NFL. What they don't have is the pieces for the rest of the puzzle. People all say "Fred is 30, Marshawn is a thug" ... and I'd argue even if that's true, the answer is NOT taking yet ANOTHER first round RB, but rather building a RB by committee through the later rounds in the draft and free agency. That's how you build a winning team.

 

The Bills could have traded back. With such a deep draft are you willing to say that NONE of the players taken after the number 9 pick at either: OT, OG, DL, LB, WR, QB will become probowl/franchise type players? But the Bills didn't even consider trading back because Spiller was their guy all along. He's who they wanted. And that to me shows that they just don't understand that the game has changed. They're stuck in the past. And we as fans are going to be the ones who pay for that.

This was a very solid, well thought-out post! I'll begin by summarizing the foundation of your argument:

• Due to changes in rules and/or officiating, the league has become more pass-oriented. The best teams are those which can pass and stop the pass.
  
• RB by committee is more effective than having just one guy carrying the load.
  
• RBs' careers are typically short.
  
• Over the last ten+ years, the Bills have overvalued the RB position. That has been the source of many of their problems. Over the last six years, the Bills have used first round picks on McGahee, Lynch, and now Spiller.
  
• If you have a good offensive line, you can take a Broncos-like approach to the RB position, plug late round picks into the RB position, and have a successful running game.
  

I agree with everything on the above list. However, I'm not 100% convinced that I agree with your conclusion. Points that would lead me to conclude that Spiller may have been a good pick after all:

• Because the league is becoming more pass-oriented, it changes the kind of running back you really want. A standard-issue "pound the ball between the chains" RB has less utility today than he may have had 30 years ago. Instead, you want a guy who's more of a multi-dimensional threat--someone who helps you on passing downs about as much as he does on rushing downs.
  
• A perfect player in the Thurman Thomas mode gives you a lot of options on third downs. A draw play is always an option with Thurman to beat the blitz. Or he can do blitz pickup. Or he can catch a short pass, make the first guy miss, and gain some solid yards after the catch.
  
• A guy like Thurman Thomas, Marshall Faulk, or LaDanian Tomlinson is very valuable to a football team. Fred Jackson is a poor man's version of that.
  
• By most estimates, Spiller was the best player on the board when the Bills picked. If he lives up to his potential, we'll be getting a player in the Thomas/Faulk/Tomlinson mold. A guy like that is a major asset on passing downs. Think of how many drives Thurman kept alive by key catches on third downs. Spiller has the chance to be our Thurman Thomas!!
  
• While RBs' careers tend to be short, a WR-like RB can sometimes have a somewhat longer useful career than a pound-the-rock RB.
  

By no means am I saying that Spiller was the right decision. I admit to having very mixed feelings about this. But I see this as something which could be argued either way. RB was way down on the list of positions I wanted to see this team address. On the other hand, this team needs difference-makers and game-changers. Spiller has the potential to be that; and appears to have been the best available player when the Bills picked. At this point, I'm hoping that this decision works out well, and that the Bills address QB and LT very early in next year's draft.

[....lybob]

According to NFLDraftscout.com this is where our draft class projected and where we drafted them:

 

C.J. Spiller Projected 1st Rd, Drafted 1st Rd

Troup Projected 2-3 Rd, Drafted 2 Rd (high second, but hard working true NT)

Carrington Projected 2 Rd, Drafted 3rd Rd

Easley Projected 3rd Rd, Drafted 4th Rd

Wang Projected 3rd Rd, Drafted 5th Rd

Batten Projected 6-7 Rd, Drafted 6th Rd

Levi Brown Projected 4-5 Rd, Drafted 7th Rd

Calloway Projected 6-7 Rd, Drafted 7th Rd

 

So where is the reach and why were the Bills not credited for getting value at the picks? Every guy was projected to go at the pick or earlier.

 

What if we would have drafted Levi Brown where he projected or Wang for that matter? Would they be saying (DraftNiks) we got "The Guy"?

 

I think Troup, Spiller, Carrington are starters, Wang is mid to late year starter and Undrafted Antonio Coleman out plays Maybin.

 

I think maybe we have and I also think that we drafted more then one of "The Guys"

 

Thoughts?

granted Spiller is a consensus 1st rounder, but questionable pick considering the Bills OL situation

 

Troup I've seen the guy rated as low as a undrafted free agent and the highest I've seen him rated is a 3rd-4th rounder

 

Easley another guy who I've seen rated as low as a undrafted free agent.

 

obviously the Bills scouting staff thought these players were good picks where they got them as do 32 teams every year you just have to hope that the Bills draft boards were better than average.