Where did we really reach?

[Gabe Northern]

Every guy was projected to go at the pick or earlier.

 

...based on the forecast of NFL Draft Scout.

 

I think Troup was clearly a reach. Hope he works out, but I think it's far from obvious he's a natural 3-4 NT, as he played the 4-3 in school and is only 320 lbs.

 

Instead of round grade, look at where he ranks relative to other DTs. Do you really believe he should have been next NT to go after Dan Williams?

 

Again, hope he works out. Also hoping Lonnie Harvey makes the team and gets snaps.

[dgrid]

Rd 7, Pick 9 (216) Calloway, Kyle OT-----Value (+73)

Wow!

was the scooter DUI the consensus as to why he fell?

[Logical Reasoning]

Troupe, Carrington and Easley were reaches.

 

Not one one these players played against major division one competition consistently. I am not saying they are going to play poorly because I don't think that will be the case, but from a lay persons perspective, Troupe was second team conference in a poor conference, Carrington was solid in a very poor conference, and Easley did not start fully during his senior season.

 

They may turn out fine, but there are question marks where there were other players at posiions they played that were taken behind them with less questions.

[CarolinaBill]

osi umenyiora and strahan played in AWESOME conferences, good logic

 

Troup improved every year in that conference (brandon marshall's conference)

 

Carrington was recruited to the SEC, and the sunbelt is not a poor conference

 

Easley is the only one who should maybe be considered a reach, but at rd 4 he has skill and enough potential to make a good pick.

[stuckincincy]

It should be obvious that we reached for everybody, why take spiller when Clausen was there for the taking, never mind the fact that he plummeted past us, again, in rd 2. why take a NT so early, everybody knows NT's are easy to find, we shouldve drafted a project RT at our 2 spot and hoped he can play LT. And why take a prototype 3-4 end in rd 3, moorman is getting old and we have NO ONE to groom behind him.

 

Clearly, Nix has not listened to the drafting genius of mel kiper, todd mcshay, john clayton, or any of the other naysayers, other wise we would be on the right track.

 

sheesh

 

The Bills - with Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch under contract, turned their back on these prospects:

 

Thomas, Earl SS

Pierre-Paul, Jason DE

Morgan, Derrick DE

Iupati, Mike OG

Pouncey, Maurkice C

Weatherspoon, Sean LB

Gresham, Jermaine TE

Bulaga, Bryan T

Hughes, Jerry DE

 

etc.

 

And decided that a 4th rnd wr was all that position needed.

 

sheesh

[CarolinaBill]

The Bills - with Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch under contract, turned their back on these prospects:

 

Thomas, Earl SS - not a need

Pierre-Paul, Jason DE- one year wonder

Morgan, Derrick DE- better suited for a 3-4

Iupati, Mike OG- dont need a OG

Pouncey, Maurkice C- not rated high enough

Weatherspoon, Sean LB- not worthy of top 10 pick

Gresham, Jermaine TE dont need a TE, esp at #9

Bulaga, Bryan T- projected better at RT

Hughes, Jerry DE wouldve been nice, but not at 9

 

etc.

 

And decided that a 4th rnd wr was all that position needed.

 

sheesh

fred jackson, who is about to be 30, needed a MONSTER game against Indy's 2nd string to BARELY REACH 1000 yds, Lynch cannot be trusted at this point

 

all those players you just listed either did not warrant a top 10 selection, were at positions we did not need, or would not have fit our scheme

 

why is it so hard to see that we filled need positions, that had we ignored we wouldve been roasted for even more than we are now.

 

With johnson and hardy stepping in to replace reed and owens, easley was a nice pick, esp with his skill set.

[stuckincincy]

fred jackson, who is about to be 30, needed a MONSTER game against Indy's 2nd string to BARELY REACH 1000 yds, Lynch cannot be trusted at this point

 

all those players you just listed either did not warrant a top 10 selection, were at positions we did not need, or would not have fit our scheme

 

why is it so hard to see that we filled need positions, that had we ignored we wouldve been roasted for even more than we are now.

 

With johnson and hardy stepping in to replace reed and owens, easley was a nice pick, esp with his skill set.

 

Thud.

[CarolinaBill]

Thud.

awesome contribution. thanks for the insight

[stuckincincy]

awesome contribution. thanks for the insight

 

 

Let's see - you say the Bills don't need a guard, don't need a LB, don't need a TE, don't need a DE, don't need a T, don't need a C.

 

But they need a RB because Fred is 30 years old and Marshawn is iffy. The to-date useless, untested Hardy and Johnson will step up.

 

Right...

[MRW]

Let's see - you say the Bills don't need a guard, don't need a LB, don't need a TE, don't need a DE, don't need a T, don't need a C.

 

But they need a RB because Fred is 30 years old and Marshawn is iffy. The to-date useless, untested Hardy and Johnson will step up.

 

Right...

So when he said "all those players you just listed either did not warrant a top 10 selection, were at positions we did not need, or would not have fit our scheme" you instead read "all those players you just listed were at positions we did not need". Interesting.

[kota]

They reached when they took a RB in the first round. For a team with a half a dozen glaring holes, they chose to add a "playmaker" (who will play less than 60% of the offensive snaps) to the team's deepest position. A position where they already had not one, but TWO, 1,000 yard rushers. Also, RB is a position the Bills have time and time again wasted first round draft picks on over the past (playoff-less) decade. From Smith, to Henry (high 2nd), to Willis, to Lynch less than 3 years ago.

 

In my opinion it was a terrible, terrible waste of a pick for a team who frankly can't afford to waste any more draft picks.

 

I really don't view the pick as a waste. They got a guy that can play RB or line up in the slot. He can play the wildcat plays as well. He can be on the field on any down. His return ability just adds to it. It wasn't a waste in terms of talent and it wasn't a waste for the Bills. They have two good RB's. One of them is 30 and the other one is one infraction away from getting a 8 game suspension.

 

The Bills could have gotten Clausen or Bulaga, or Andre Davis at 9 but alot of teams weren't comfortable with them as well which is why they all slipped in the draft.

 

I am very happy with the draft. They created depth at alot of positions which adds competition. They have stacked positions for the future. They also got all high character guys with strong work ethics.

 

This team will be differen thtis year. WE could make the playoffs if one of the QB's manages to take the Reins and runs with it.

[CarolinaBill]

Let's see - you say the Bills don't need a guard, don't need a LB, don't need a TE, don't need a DE, don't need a T, don't need a C.

 

But they need a RB because Fred is 30 years old and Marshawn is iffy. The to-date useless, untested Hardy and Johnson will step up.

 

Right...

not at the #9 spot no, we didnt need to really reach for those guys, both those DE's listed, JPP is the definition of 1 yr wonder, and morgan is better suited for the 4-3,

 

no we should not pick a RT what 9 when we need a LT

 

nor does a C, TE, or OG warrant the selection at the 9 spot

 

spiller helps in 3 phases, as a RB, KR and reciever, nobody available at the 9 wouldve provided that kind of ability or versatility.

 

NOW,

 

IF, and its really a moot point because it obviously didnt happen, but IF we had been able to trade down, some of those guys you listed couldve been viable options, but as it stands, nobody was worth that pick except for Spiller.

 

then we got our NT to plug the middle of our new 3-4 defense, and a prototype 3-4 DE

 

we filled 3 need positions in 3 rds

[K-9]

It could be argued, based on his pre-draft rankings, that Spiller was not only NOT a reach at #9 but, indeed, the highest VALUE player left on the board. I mean he was a consensus top 5 overall player. Too good to pass up.

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again: playmakers are ALWAYS a position of need.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[robertpaul49]

Troupe, Carrington and Easley were reaches.

 

Not one one these players played against major division one competition consistently. I am not saying they are going to play poorly because I don't think that will be the case, but from a lay persons perspective, Troupe was second team conference in a poor conference, Carrington was solid in a very poor conference, and Easley did not start fully during his senior season.

 

They may turn out fine, but there are question marks where there were other players at posiions they played that were taken behind them with less questions.

 

I completely agree that these three were reaches; however, I have been doing some analysis of the player drafted by other team compared to who the Bills drafted, and I found that the Bills, by far, drafted the most small school prospects.

 

I am convinced that this OBD strategy, for two reasons. One, the players will be more motivated to play for a small market team compared to players from USC, Miami or Texas, since the Bills are now the big time. Think the anti-Mike Williams. I truly believe this is why the Bills selected Troupe over Mount Cody or Cam Thomas. Two, the Bills believe that they can find gems in the smaller schools because they aren't as well know. For the second point, I think that Nix having been the head of scouting has a belief that the scouting department can find these players.

 

The national press will always give lower grades to the Bills for selecting players who are from small schools because the players aren't as well known as the one's who play in nationally televised games.

 

As far as Spiller, I'm not sure how important a left tackle is since Arizona got to the Super Bowl with Mike Gandy. How many people here would like to have him back? He's available.

[CosmicBills]

Tgreg,

 

I am not bashing you....but i pose the same question to you that I pose to everyone who says this.....what exactly would you have done if you were making the decisions in that situation?

 

- Trade down was popular....but how do we know buffalo was even getting a realistic offer to do that?

- What other player would you have selected at that point in the draft

 

 

My theory is this......dont take what some sports writer says are the amount of carries CJ Spiller is going to get as gospel.....CJ Spiller is so multi talented....he can run, catch, play special teams......he doesn't need to pound the rock to be effective he just needs an inch of daylight.......

 

I have no problem with the Spiller pick because he may be the best overall player to come out of this draft period......better then the 1st overall pick.....better then Okung.......other then Suh or McCoy (which we had no shot at) he might be the best OVERALL player.....if that is the case then how do you knock taking him at the 9th pick?

 

Also regardless of what is being said the team might be planning for the departure of Marshawn Lynch.

 

It's a philosophical difference. Before I get into what I mean by that, let me say up front that even though I think the Spiller pick was the wrong pick, there's nothing to be done about it now. And, I will be rooting my ass off him to be everything he's hyped to be and more. I'm not not one of those fans who care more about being right than having their team win -- as (I think) you know.

 

Still ... here's why this pick, to me, is such a waste. It comes down to the fact that I believe the NFL has changed drastically over the past 10 years. Back in the 70s, 80s and 90s (and before), teams relied upon 1 RB to carry the load. And while QBs have always been important, it was rare to find a GREAT team (ie: Super Bowl winner) who didn't have a super star RB or a tremendously talented rushing attack leading the way. It was a grind it out, control the clock type of game where DBs were allowed to maul WRs, passing schemes were (by in large) conservative. Scores were low (average were around 20 - 25 per game).

 

The NFL, in an effort to goose the sport, changed the rules (or started enforcing the rules depending on who you ask) for DBs and opened up the passing attack. Scoring went way up as teams started using spread attacks with 4 or 5 WRs on the field at a time. QBs took over the sport even more so and where teams used to run to set up the pass they are now passing to set up the run. The league changed. Almost over night. It's now, 100% a passing league where the team with the best passing attack and the best pass defense wins over the team with the best rushing attack.

 

GMs know this. They began to adjust HOW they built their teams in response to this as can clearly be seen in the most successful franchises over the past decade. And I don't mean just by drafting more CBs, WRs and QBs -- but by devaluing RBs. Why? Because RBs had priced themselves out of relevance. Teams couldn't afford to tie up a large percentage of their cap space on super star RBs when more money was needed for the OL, WRs, DBs, and QBs. So they adjusted. They discovered that RB is one of the easiest positions to transition from the college game to the NFL. The learning curve is short. That means that teams could take the Bronco's model and take any RB and turn him into a productive threat. So, they started going with tandum backfields. RB by committee.

 

The success was evident on the field. Teams found that they could get the SAME production, if not more, by using two RBs found late in the draft or on the FA market. Look at the stats from the league's top offenses last year (NFL.com has a great stat sorting tool you can use -- I dug up all these stats before and don't feel like doing it again right now so I'll paraphrase) and you'll find that the top 5 offensive teams didn't have a marquee RB. They had talented backs, but none that you'd consider a superstar. Look at the top RUSHING teams and you'll see much of the same thing -- only the top rushing teams by in large weren't playoff teams. Rather they were on the outside looking in.

 

Specific examples: New Orleans used 4 RBs, none of them marquee (I'm sorry, Bush doesn't count as marquee because he's been a tremendous disappointment based on where he was drafted and the hype surrounding him), Indy got rid of James for a RB by committee approach and while Adai and Brown are good neither are super stars (though Brown was a first round pick -- more on that later), The Pats haven't had a super star RB ... ever, The Giants, Steelers, all used committees ... the list goes on. These teams are not defined by their running backs or even their running game even though they have good ones. They are all defined by their passing attacks and defense. That's how you get a winner in this new NFL.

 

Take a look at the example in Tennessee. Tennessee went 15-1 with their RB by committee approach using White and Johnson. Then, they abandoned that in favor of using JUST Johnson and they wound up going 8-8 with no playoffs. Were there other factors? Sure. But people here want to say Spiller is the next Johnson -- yet Johnson just proved that he can't do it by himself in Tennessee.

 

There's just no point in using high draft picks on RBs unless your team is one player away from being a super bowl contender. RBs lifespans are the shortest in the league (they all seem to hit the wall at 30), and since you can find equal production from 2 lesser/cheaper players later in the draft or FA there's no logic in using a high pick to take one early. The best, most successful teams in the leauge the past decade know this and have acted accordingly. Yet the Bills have not. They have used not 1, not 2, but THREE first round picks in the past 6 years on RBs. Think about that. THREE first round picks on a position where, their most productive player during that stretch was found in NFL Europe.

 

I don't think it's at all a coincidence that in those 6 years these Bills teams have been at the bottom of the barrell in the AFC East and the NFL in general. The team has been mishandled for over a decade. Built, and torn down. Rebuilt and torn down again. Only every time they seem to start with the same principle: RB is the key. And I'm sorry. It's not. Maybe in 1985. But not in 2010. RB is, perhaps, the least important position on the field.

 

The old timers will be screaming: "We play in Buffalo! You can't win in the cold and snow of December and January without a grinding running game". That is the WORST, and most incorrect excuse I hear on here. First, when's the last time the Bills have been in a playoff game in the snow? Second, NE, Pittsburgh, the Giants all made it just fine using RB by committee in the winter.

 

What Spiller brings to the table is a playmaker who "can score anytime he touches the ball". Sure. That's true if he lives up to the hype. He will bust a few long ones this year. If he's REAL good he'll take one to the house a game (on a long run I mean). Maybe 1 every other game -- even that would be great. But what would you rather have? An OFFENSE who can score every time it's on the field -- which requires a QB, WRs, and OL. Or a player who can break long runs off once or twice a game?

 

Therein lies my point. The Bills already have enough talent at RB to win in this modern NFL. What they don't have is the pieces for the rest of the puzzle. People all say "Fred is 30, Marshawn is a thug" ... and I'd argue even if that's true, the answer is NOT taking yet ANOTHER first round RB, but rather building a RB by committee through the later rounds in the draft and free agency. That's how you build a winning team.

 

The Bills could have traded back. With such a deep draft are you willing to say that NONE of the players taken after the number 9 pick at either: OT, OG, DL, LB, WR, QB will become probowl/franchise type players? But the Bills didn't even consider trading back because Spiller was their guy all along. He's who they wanted. And that to me shows that they just don't understand that the game has changed. They're stuck in the past. And we as fans are going to be the ones who pay for that.

[Astrobot]

Wow!

was the scooter DUI the consensus as to why he fell?

 

More because he was projected to be a Guard, plus they felt that Ferentz made him better than he is, plus the DUI arrest.

 

CBSSports and NFLDraftScout thought more highly of him going into that DUI:

"Although he's not the elite prospect that Gallery, Steinbach or Verba were, Calloway's length, strength, footwork and technique give him a chance for a long pro career -- no matter where he's placed on the line." Projected as a top three round pick."

[dgrid]

More because he was projected to be a Guard, plus they felt that Ferentz made him better than he is, plus the DUI arrest.

 

CBSSports and NFLDraftScout thought more highly of him going into that DUI:

"Although he's not the elite prospect that Gallery, Steinbach or Verba were, Calloway's length, strength, footwork and technique give him a chance for a long pro career -- no matter where he's placed on the line." Projected as a top three round pick."

nice!

[JDHILL]

They reached when they took a RB in the first round. For a team with a half a dozen glaring holes, they chose to add a "playmaker" (who will play less than 60% of the offensive snaps) to the team's deepest position. A position where they already had not one, but TWO, 1,000 yard rushers. Also, RB is a position the Bills have time and time again wasted first round draft picks on over the past (playoff-less) decade. From Smith, to Henry (high 2nd), to Willis, to Lynch less than 3 years ago.

 

In my opinion it was a terrible, terrible waste of a pick for a team who frankly can't afford to waste any more draft picks.

 

"Terrible waste of the pick" is pretty harsh considering Spiller will help you on ST, as a receiving threat and as a running back. BTW Antowain Smith was drafted in 1997 and actually played in 2 playoff games for the Bills. I agree that they could have chosen a LT but I don't think it's the end of the world they didn't. As for the QB's, I'm not sure any of those QB's available at the time, ie Claussen, McCoy are the sure things that some people make them out to be. You just never know. It really is a crap shoot. Everyone is entitled to their opinion and that opinion should be agreed with or disagreed with in a respectful fashion. I think it's really premature to call Spiller a waste of a draft pick before he ever touches the ball in a actual game. Also, I don't see Henry as a wasted pick. They got a few good years out of him before he self destructed. Marshawn Lynch warranted # 1 status and the Bills needed a running back.. So it wasn't a bad pick at the time.

[Buffalonian-at-Heart]

According to NFLDraftscout.com this is where our draft class projected and where we drafted them:

 

C.J. Spiller Projected 1st Rd, Drafted 1st Rd

Troup Projected 2-3 Rd, Drafted 2 Rd (high second, but hard working true NT)

Carrington Projected 2 Rd, Drafted 3rd Rd

Easley Projected 3rd Rd, Drafted 4th Rd

Wang Projected 3rd Rd, Drafted 5th Rd

Batten Projected 6-7 Rd, Drafted 6th Rd

Levi Brown Projected 4-5 Rd, Drafted 7th Rd

Calloway Projected 6-7 Rd, Drafted 7th Rd

 

So where is the reach and why were the Bills not credited for getting value at the picks? Every guy was projected to go at the pick or earlier.

 

What if we would have drafted Levi Brown where he projected or Wang for that matter? Would they be saying (DraftNiks) we got "The Guy"?

 

I think Troup, Spiller, Carrington are starters, Wang is mid to late year starter and Undrafted Antonio Coleman out plays Maybin.

 

I think maybe we have and I also think that we drafted more then one of "The Guys"

 

Thoughts?

 

 

I only disagree with one portion of your post. It's going to take Wang a lot longer than the 8th game to late year to become a starter. It won't even be next year. He's a project in every sense of the word. I feel like he'll need to go through at least 2 off season NFL training programs to build upper body strength, etc.

[EastRochBillsfan]

Tgreg,

 

I am not bashing you....but i pose the same question to you that I pose to everyone who says this.....what exactly would you have done if you were making the decisions in that situation?

 

- Trade down was popular....but how do we know buffalo was even getting a realistic offer to do that?

- What other player would you have selected at that point in the draft

 

 

My theory is this......dont take what some sports writer says are the amount of carries CJ Spiller is going to get as gospel.....CJ Spiller is so multi talented....he can run, catch, play special teams......he doesn't need to pound the rock to be effective he just needs an inch of daylight.......

 

I have no problem with the Spiller pick because he may be the best overall player to come out of this draft period......better then the 1st overall pick.....better then Okung.......other then Suh or McCoy (which we had no shot at) he might be the best OVERALL player.....if that is the case then how do you knock taking him at the 9th pick?

 

Also regardless of what is being said the team might be planning for the departure of Marshawn Lynch.

Nice post

 

I only disagree with one portion of your post. It's going to take Wang a lot longer than the 8th game to late year to become a starter. It won't even be next year. He's a project in every sense of the word. I feel like he'll need to go through at least 2 off season NFL training programs to build upper body strength, etc.

Gaither, who everyone and their brother wants the Bills to trade for, was a 5th round pic and started 6 games his first year and all 16 his second year. So it IS possible Wang could do the same thing. I'm not saying it will, but with a good work ethic maybe he can turn into a good left tackle for us.