Some Facts About Tom Modrak

[EastRochBillsfan]

Excellent counter-argument.

 

 

 

I repeat, whatever.

[Lurker]

You do know that Modrak is the guy who got Nix here, right? And that it took a lot of talking. Nix is only here because he likes and believes in Modrak.

Please substantiate that. Buddy's here because of his past association with Ralph during the Polian/Butler era...

[Sisyphean Bills]

So, you're advocating hiring just any former GM, just because he was a former GM? Awesome.

C'mon, Doc. You're not stupid, so don't act it. You made a claim that there were no top-tier GMs available. There were and are unemployed GMs available, so your claim is weak at best, and intentionally misleading at worst. I'm not advocating jack ****, and you know it.

Obviously Brandon, as GM (in-name only), was supposed to be present throughout the process. Just like Marv was. But neither was a true GM.

Again, per your qualified definition of "true" GM. The fact is that Russ Brandon had the title and held the job and performed the same observable functions like any other GM of any other NFL team. If it makes you feel better to think he had no say in anything and zero input, then roll with it. But, we also know you have no first-hand knowledge that Brandon had no input behind the scenes.

[Lurker]

There were and are people with GM experience that are not employed by an NFL team then and now. Whether they meet your selective qualifications as "top-tier" or not.

 

When you claim Brandon had nothing to do with the football side of the business based on "the small test", you do know that he was given the title of GM, attended the combine and workouts, scouted players, was present and involved at training camp, talked about his plans to the media, etc. -- you know, the **** other GMs around the NFL do as part of their job as a GM.

Attending things and making player personnel decisions are not mutually inclussive. In published articles after his "promotion," Brandon himself said that he was interested in learning the player personnel side--but that he was not an expert in it.

[Steely Dan]

I am amused by all of the posts talking about the "new" front office and how different things are now that Buddy Nix is running the show. It's total nonsense. All they did was elevate a semi-retired scout to the GM position at the same time they promoted Brandon to CEO -- meaning Buddy's position in the pecking order barely changed. They traded Doug Whaley for John Guy and that's a big improvement, no doubt about it, but all of the commentators have focused thus far on the draft.

 

The college scouting operation is all the same, headed by Tom Modrak, the guy who's run our drafts since 2002. I've had numerous conversations with people in the organization about the draft process. While Dick Jauron and Brandon had final say, Dick never overruled a Modrak recommendation when it came to a specific position. So, yes, Dick did decide to take a safety over a quarterback, for instance, but he took the safety on the board rated highest by Modrak.

 

This is an important distinction. In 2009, Modrak wanted Cushing. Fine. But he also had Maybin rated as his #1 DE-pass rusher. Thought Orakpo took too many plays off. So when Jauron-Brandon decided they needed a pass rusher, they went with the guy Modrak recommended. And the guy they passed on went to the Pro Bowl. *

 

This was hardly the first time that happpened.

 

In 2008, our needs were identified in post-season review as CB and a WR. We went with Modrak's recommendations of McKelvin and Hardy and passed on a Pro Bowler in both cases (Rodgers-Cromartie in the 1st and DeSean Jackson in the 2nd). In 2007, Modrak had a mid-1st round grade on Poz so we traded up to get him instead of standing pat and getting a better player in David Harris. In 2006, we went up to get John McCargo, another guy Modrak had a 1st round grade on** (Modrak was the source for his friend Len Pasquarelli's article about the guy).

 

In the Donahoe era, Modrak selected Roscoe Parrish over Vincent Jackson (taken 6 picks later). He was instrumental in the Losman selection*** (also source for this Pasquarelli article suggesting JP could go 1st round). In 2003, he recommended Kelsay over Osi Umenyiora (taken 8 picks later). This isn't hindsight bias a la Tom Brady in the 6th round...we're talking about the pick coming down to 2 guys, Modrak recommending one and the VERY NEXT GUY off the board at the position goes to the pro bowl.

 

You all want to pretend this was a good draft, that the "new regime" is taking a fresh approach and getting the right guys in place, fine. You can believe that...glad Russ Brandon didn't have to work hard with the spin this year. But just know that the same guy who made all of bum recommendations in the past is the same guy who recommended Troup over Linval Joseph and Carrington over Earl Mitchell**** (perfect 3-4 DE who played DT at Arizona).

 

If the past is any guide, watch for Troup and Carrington to struggle while Joseph and Mitchell head to Honolulu.

 

* You're calling Maybin a bust waaaay to early. Almost everything I read about Maybin prior to the draft had him as the best DE available but was a project with huge upside. Talk to me about Maybin at the end of this year.

 

** You don't seem to realize that the Hardy selection was made because the Bills wanted a BIG receiver for endzone passes. So your comparison to Jackson is completely invalid. How you can dog on the McKelvin pick is beyond me. He is going to be a great player for a long time. Look for him in the probowl this year. Aside from one boneheaded play last year he was doing an awesome job before getting injured. Poz has been injured and I wouldn't put Harris that high above him right now.

 

I agree with you that Losman was a bad pick but Parrish was the best PR in the league for a time. He was a second round pick and has payed back a lot. I think his production has him worth about a 3rd rounder. JMO

 

**** We'll see. You know no more than anyone else right now.

 

 

There were and are people with GM experience that are not employed by an NFL team then and now. Whether they meet your selective qualifications as "top-tier" or not.

When you claim Brandon had nothing to do with the football side of the business based on "the small test", you do know that he was given the title of GM, attended the combine and workouts, scouted players, was present and involved at training camp, talked about his plans to the media, etc. -- you know, the **** other GMs around the NFL do as part of their job as a GM.

 

They are?

[Steely Dan]

BTW, let's look at last years draft. Grades reflect round they were taken in.

 

Aaron Maybin (Inconclusive)

 

Eric Wood (B)

 

Jairus Byrd (A+)

 

Andy Levitre (A)

 

Shawn Nelson (B)

 

Nic Harris (C+)

 

Cary Harris ©

 

Ellis Lankster (B+)

 

These guys are going into their second year and that's when the biggest improvement is usually seen. These guys, IMO, can only get better.

[BillsVet]

Attending things and making player personnel decisions are not mutually inclussive. In published articles after his "promotion," Brandon himself said that he was interested in learning the player personnel side--but that he was not an expert in it.

 

Why would Brandon have pursued a greater knowledge of the personnel side of business if he wasn't going to be doing it? As an extra credit project for RW?

 

BTW, let's look at last years draft. Grades reflect round they were taken in.

 

These guys are going into their second year and that's when the biggest improvement is usually seen. These guys, IMO, can only get better.

 

No one can adequately grade a draft pick for three years. Or so I'm told on TBD.

 

Players can regress, and the two notable examples are Brandon Spoon and Ko Simpson. When teams have an entire off-season to review film, some player's weaknesses are easier to spot than in the course of a week's preparation.

[Doc]

C'mon, Doc. You're not stupid, so don't act it. You made a claim that there were no top-tier GMs available. There were and are unemployed GMs available, so your claim is weak at best, and intentionally misleading at worst. I'm not advocating jack ****, and you know it.

If it seemed "stupid," it's only because I was following your lead. You essentially said that the Bills should have gotten anyone with GM experience. And the understanding is that if they were and still are available, they're not that good. Otherwise they'd be employed.

 

Who do you think the Bills should have interviewed, much less hired? Casserly? Reese? What about hiring Doug Whaley as AGM, who some suggested should have been looked-at for GM, despite never having been a GM before, or even AGM?

 

Again, per your qualified definition of "true" GM. The fact is that Russ Brandon had the title and held the job and performed the same observable functions like any other GM of any other NFL team. If it makes you feel better to think he had no say in anything and zero input, then roll with it. But, we also know you have no first-hand knowledge that Brandon had no input behind the scenes.

Again, Levy "performed the same observable functions like any other GM." No one was claiming he was anything other than a figurehead. And at least he was a former coach and knowledgeable about football players, not a marketing guy like Brandon. Moreover neither was a scout like Nix, much less an AGM prior to becoming a GM. I have no doubt that Brandon is now strictly dealing with the business side of things.

[Red]

I am amused by all of the posts talking about the "new" front office and how different things are now that Buddy Nix is running the show. It's total nonsense. All they did was elevate a semi-retired scout to the GM position at the same time they promoted Brandon to CEO -- meaning Buddy's position in the pecking order barely changed. They traded Doug Whaley for John Guy and that's a big improvement, no doubt about it, but all of the commentators have focused thus far on the draft.

 

The college scouting operation is all the same, headed by Tom Modrak, the guy who's run our drafts since 2002. I've had numerous conversations with people in the organization about the draft process. While Dick Jauron and Brandon had final say, Dick never overruled a Modrak recommendation when it came to a specific position. So, yes, Dick did decide to take a safety over a quarterback, for instance, but he took the safety on the board rated highest by Modrak.

 

This is an important distinction. In 2009, Modrak wanted Cushing. Fine. But he also had Maybin rated as his #1 DE-pass rusher. Thought Orakpo took too many plays off. So when Jauron-Brandon decided they needed a pass rusher, they went with the guy Modrak recommended. And the guy they passed on went to the Pro Bowl.

 

This was hardly the first time that happpened.

 

In 2008, our needs were identified in post-season review as CB and a WR. We went with Modrak's recommendations of McKelvin and Hardy and passed on a Pro Bowler in both cases (Rodgers-Cromartie in the 1st and DeSean Jackson in the 2nd). In 2007, Modrak had a mid-1st round grade on Poz so we traded up to get him instead of standing pat and getting a better player in David Harris. In 2006, we went up to get John McCargo, another guy Modrak had a 1st round grade on (Modrak was the source for his friend Len Pasquarelli's article about the guy).

 

In the Donahoe era, Modrak selected Roscoe Parrish over Vincent Jackson (taken 6 picks later). He was instrumental in the Losman selection (also source for this Pasquarelli article suggesting JP could go 1st round). In 2003, he recommended Kelsay over Osi Umenyiora (taken 8 picks later). This isn't hindsight bias a la Tom Brady in the 6th round...we're talking about the pick coming down to 2 guys, Modrak recommending one and the VERY NEXT GUY off the board at the position goes to the pro bowl.

 

You all want to pretend this was a good draft, that the "new regime" is taking a fresh approach and getting the right guys in place, fine. You can believe that...glad Russ Brandon didn't have to work hard with the spin this year. But just know that the same guy who made all of bum recommendations in the past is the same guy who recommended Troup over Linval Joseph and Carrington over Earl Mitchell (perfect 3-4 DE who played DT at Arizona).

 

If the past is any guide, watch for Troup and Carrington to struggle while Joseph and Mitchell head to Honolulu.

 

I am far from a supporter of Modrak, as his rein of terror has been the only consistent with the Bills with the exception of Ralph with this recent front office turnover. I called for his firing when Guy was also not brought back. Modrak's decade of failure stretches farther back than any 1 coach, so coaching cannot be an excuse.

 

Truth can be told in how many players selected between years 2000-2005, are still with the team. Out of 50 picks, something like 3-4 are still with the team, and Schobel is considering retirement. That is horrible number, when you consider that if the philosophy for a smaller market team like Buffalo is to build through the draft, than those players between the years 2000-2005 should now be at the peak of their careers and leading at their respective position. Furthermore, how many Modrak inspired picks have made the Pro Bowl in the past decade? In the past decade, how many of our 1st round picks are still with the team? Dominating?

 

If Modrak has been in charge of getting the scouts together and making recommendations on players to draft- which he has- than he has failed miserably and should not be retained further.

 

After that, I have to disagree with you on the rest. Nix is an excellent judge of talent, as evidenced by his run here in the Super Bowl years and in San Diego. Whaley in the pro personnel side of things is a fantastic improvement over Modrak's clone in ineptitude- John Guy. Little news was made of the Bills recently signing another top scout from San Diego that is now working for the Bills- so little, in fact, that his name escapes me.

 

The front office is changing, and with it, so is the culture of losing that Modrak and Guy built. And I really wish the age-bashers would give it a break already. In some cultures, age actually displays wisdom and experience. Last I checked, San Diego is still a pretty talented team.

 

As with anyone championing this draft, I also have to shoot down people such as yourself that harpoon it before it even gets a chance to breathe. Only time will tell. In 3-4 seasons, we will be able to tell how productive this draft was. Everything else is just hot air.

[T master]

Agreed. While he was here, TD had the biggest influence on who was chosen in the first two rounds, just as DJ did after Whitey was fired. You can make an agrument that Modrak's evaluations were off, but not that he's some Svengali making the picks.

 

Funny (sad) article on Roscoe pick.

 

I suspect Nix will slowly replace/upgrade the scouting department this year, with Modrak likely to retire at some point in the near future...

 

I always thought Roscoe could easily be our Steven Smith but the coaches i believe just didn't know how to use him !!!

[Gabe Northern]

Just a couple of clarifications.

 

I have had conversations with two people, one of whom is involved in the evaluation process and the other was familiar with how selections were made. Both conversations occurred in social settings. I don't know either well enough to know if they were being straight with me, but the message from both was "what part of Tom Modrak runs the draft don't you understand?" So I believe it and pass this along. Neither suggested that Modrak wasn't overruled (perhaps even regularly), but when that happened, it was generally to get a guy in a different position that Modrak also liked. One expressed frustration with Modrak's uncanny ability to get info out to the media when his pick gets vetoed (Cutler in '06 and Cushing in '09, as examples), while simultaneously escaping accountability for the numerous instances where his recommendation was heeded and the NEXT GUY off the board at the position turned out to be far and away the better selection. The specific citations on this point were the 2008 debacle and the fact that he "fell in love" with hardworking Kelsay (over Osi).

 

Secondly, good points about the scheme. Modrak was supposed to find guys to fit Jauron's borderline insane personnel philosophy over the previous four drafts. Certainly the preference for inserting college safeties at LB and the number of picks used on DBs generally probably contributed more to the bad drafts over those 4 years than Modrak's evaluations.

 

Finally, I provided links to Pasquarelli articles where I was told Modrak was the source. Evidently, they are close friends and Modrak feeds him info in exchange for favorable coverage (being mentioned as GM candidate earlier in the decade to pry some spare change loose from Ralph, for example). See this PFT link or just Google Pasquarelli and Modrak. One link said Losman could still go first round (would he, had the Bills not taken him?) and the Insider version of the other (see sidebar) touts McCargo as a top prospect at a time when most teams had a 3rd round grade on him, at best.

[Nostradamus]

whatever

You clearly put a lot of time and effort into this thoughtful and insightful response.

[Bill from NYC]

Just a couple of clarifications.

 

I have had conversations with two people, one of whom is involved in the evaluation process and the other was familiar with how selections were made. Both conversations occurred in social settings. I don't know either well enough to know if they were being straight with me, but the message from both was "what part of Tom Modrak runs the draft don't you understand?" So I believe it and pass this along. Neither suggested that Modrak wasn't overruled (perhaps even regularly), but when that happened, it was generally to get a guy in a different position that Modrak also liked. One expressed frustration with Modrak's uncanny ability to get info out to the media when his pick gets vetoed (Cutler in '06 and Cushing in '09, as examples), while simultaneously escaping accountability for the numerous instances where his recommendation was heeded and the NEXT GUY off the board at the position turned out to be far and away the better selection. The specific citations on this point were the 2008 debacle and the fact that he "fell in love" with hardworking Kelsay (over Osi).

 

Secondly, good points about the scheme. Modrak was supposed to find guys to fit Jauron's borderline insane personnel philosophy over the previous four drafts. Certainly the preference for inserting college safeties at LB and the number of picks used on DBs generally probably contributed more to the bad drafts over those 4 years than Modrak's evaluations.

 

Finally, I provided links to Pasquarelli articles where I was told Modrak was the source. Evidently, they are close friends and Modrak feeds him info in exchange for favorable coverage (being mentioned as GM candidate earlier in the decade to pry some spare change loose from Ralph, for example). See this PFT link or just Google Pasquarelli and Modrak. One link said Losman could still go first round (would he, had the Bills not taken him?) and the Insider version of the other (see sidebar) touts McCargo as a top prospect at a time when most teams had a 3rd round grade on him, at best.

 

How true. Very good post, and thanks for bringing up valid points.

[K-9]

...Truth can be told in how many players selected between years 2000-2005, are still with the team. Out of 50 picks, something like 3-4 are still with the team, and Schobel is considering retirement. That is horrible number, ...

 

Just for grins I went back and took a look at the players that the Patriots* selected over that same period. I chose the Patriots* because most pundits glorified them as having the finest personnel people in the league running things during that time period.

 

The Patriots currently have 8/51 players drafted on their roster. 8.

 

The Bills have 5/50 (if Schobel retires, 4). A whopping 3 players less than the Patriots. Not that big a difference to say the least.

 

Of course, all it took was 1 (Brady) to qualify everything the Pats have been since then.

 

I'm willing to bet that most teams have nearly the same rates of attrition but I'm far too lazy to do the research.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Lurker]

Why would Brandon have pursued a greater knowledge of the personnel side of business if he wasn't going to be doing it? As an extra credit project for RW?

Simple. Any good senior manager wants to learn all facets of his company's business, even if he doesn't have direct input into how a particular department is run...a fact that would be clear to anyone with management experience.

[thewildrabbit]

Not for nothing but maybe that hearsay has some validity because someone at OBD is completely useless in judging O line talent, drafting guys like Mike Williams with the # 4th overall, while missing on ...the Vikings took Bryant McKinnie with the #7 pick in the first round and he has been the starting left tackle there for 108 games from 2003 to present

 

2002 Mike D Williams T #4 pick first round-02-05 complete bust in Buffalo even at RT

Mike Pucillo G # 215 seventh round-03 to 07 long gone

 

2003 Ben Sobieski T #151 5th round- 03 -long gone

 

2004-Dylan McFarland T #207 seventh round-04 to 05-long gone

 

2005-Duke Preston C #122 fourth round -05 to 08

Justin Geisinger G # 197 sixth round-06 to 08 long gone

 

2006-Brad Butler T #143 fifth round- 06 to 09 retired

Terrance Pennington T #216 seventh round-06 long gone

Aaron Merz G #248 G seventh round -06 long gone

 

2007-----

 

2008- Demetrius Bell T #219 seventh round 08-09

 

2009- Eric Wood C #28 first round 09

Andy Levitre G #51 second round 09

 

2010-Ed Wang T #140 fifth round

Kyle Calloway T #216 seventh round

 

 

The majority of fans posting here and overall consensus seem to think Wood and levitre were really good picks even in the first and second rounds for the O line. Which makes me wonder why the Bills refuse to draft tackles in the first two rounds. Jauron failed at first in drafting DB's, he just kept trying till he got it right.

 

Looking back over the past 8 years and the history of OT picks in the later rounds I'm inclined to believe that Wang will fail, unless he is a Nix pick.

[Thurman#1]

Please substantiate that. Buddy's here because of his past association with Ralph during the Polian/Butler era...

 

 

 

I've already given the link on that one about five times. It's pretty well-known. But OK.

 

I don't have time now, but within 12 hours or so, when I have time to go find it again. If I remember correctly, it was a Mark Gaughan article.

[Thurman#1]

If Modrak has been in charge of getting the scouts together and making recommendations on players to draft- which he has- than he has failed miserably and should not be retained further.

 

 

 

OK, now I see the logic. If I'm the executive who makes recommendations on something, and I do that, and somebody above me overrides my recommendations, the I am the one who should be fired? Me? Outside the Bizarro universe, where does this make sense?

[dave mcbride]

Re: 2008, do you really think that Rodgers-Cromartie is better than McKelvin and shows more promise? I certianly don't, regardless of the Pro Bowl ...

Just reiterating this point. I've seen a good amount of Rodgers-Cromartie, and "toast" is the word that comes to mind. I just don't want the OP to get get away with his original claim about the 2008 draft, which is central to his argument.

[cale]

I believe all it takes for someone to be in the power structure at OBD is that RW has to "know" the guy. He got to know Russ as he came up in the organization and now considers him his son.

 

Doug Whaley was a Nix hire but it also shows which model Ralph wants to emulate in terms of building a franchise. Low overhead, high return. The difference is the Rooneys let their football people run the show.

 

I think Nix is an adequate hire. But I think we missed several opportunities to hire a great GM this offseason. All based on comfort factor for RW. Ralph is as old school as it gets. There's some good things from that, but on the whole I think we need more luck than talent to be successful with the way RW runs his football business.

 

He values loyalty more than a successful track record.

 

C