Some Facts About Tom Modrak

[Gabe Northern]

I am amused by all of the posts talking about the "new" front office and how different things are now that Buddy Nix is running the show. It's total nonsense. All they did was elevate a semi-retired scout to the GM position at the same time they promoted Brandon to CEO -- meaning Buddy's position in the pecking order barely changed. They traded Doug Whaley for John Guy and that's a big improvement, no doubt about it, but all of the commentators have focused thus far on the draft.

 

The college scouting operation is all the same, headed by Tom Modrak, the guy who's run our drafts since 2002. I've had numerous conversations with people in the organization about the draft process. While Dick Jauron and Brandon had final say, Dick never overruled a Modrak recommendation when it came to a specific position. So, yes, Dick did decide to take a safety over a quarterback, for instance, but he took the safety on the board rated highest by Modrak.

 

This is an important distinction. In 2009, Modrak wanted Cushing. Fine. But he also had Maybin rated as his #1 DE-pass rusher. Thought Orakpo took too many plays off. So when Jauron-Brandon decided they needed a pass rusher, they went with the guy Modrak recommended. And the guy they passed on went to the Pro Bowl.

 

This was hardly the first time that happpened.

 

In 2008, our needs were identified in post-season review as CB and a WR. We went with Modrak's recommendations of McKelvin and Hardy and passed on a Pro Bowler in both cases (Rodgers-Cromartie in the 1st and DeSean Jackson in the 2nd). In 2007, Modrak had a mid-1st round grade on Poz so we traded up to get him instead of standing pat and getting a better player in David Harris. In 2006, we went up to get John McCargo, another guy Modrak had a 1st round grade on (Modrak was the source for his friend Len Pasquarelli's article about the guy).

 

In the Donahoe era, Modrak selected Roscoe Parrish over Vincent Jackson (taken 6 picks later). He was instrumental in the Losman selection (also source for this Pasquarelli article suggesting JP could go 1st round). In 2003, he recommended Kelsay over Osi Umenyiora (taken 8 picks later). This isn't hindsight bias a la Tom Brady in the 6th round...we're talking about the pick coming down to 2 guys, Modrak recommending one and the VERY NEXT GUY off the board at the position goes to the pro bowl.

 

You all want to pretend this was a good draft, that the "new regime" is taking a fresh approach and getting the right guys in place, fine. You can believe that...glad Russ Brandon didn't have to work hard with the spin this year. But just know that the same guy who made all of bum recommendations in the past is the same guy who recommended Troup over Linval Joseph and Carrington over Earl Mitchell (perfect 3-4 DE who played DT at Arizona).

 

If the past is any guide, watch for Troup and Carrington to struggle while Joseph and Mitchell head to Honolulu.

[Meathead]

it could also relate to coaching. not all talent necessarily displays itself, especially in the early years of either the coaches or the player

 

bad coaching can damage productive players, just saying ...

[Meathead]

... tho you did a nice job summing up your case

[NoSaint]

It's very possible osi, Jackson, and orakpo wouldn't shine in buffalo.

 

Who is to say Parrish wouldn't be great elsewhere?

[bananathumb]

Thanks for the work involved in posting something like this, something I would never be able (or willing) to do. It just makes you even more amazed that Modrak keeps his job.

 

Not a good feeling for what will happen with this year's bunch. Wish they would finally fire his ass.

[EastRochBillsfan]

I am amused by all of the posts talking about the "new" front office and how different things are now that Buddy Nix is running the show. It's total nonsense. All they did was elevate a semi-retired scout to the GM position at the same time they promoted Brandon to CEO -- meaning Buddy's position in the pecking order barely changed. They traded Doug Whaley for John Guy and that's a big improvement, no doubt about it, but all of the commentators have focused thus far on the draft.

 

The college scouting operation is all the same, headed by Tom Modrak, the guy who's run our drafts since 2002. I've had numerous conversations with people in the organization about the draft process. While Dick Jauron and Brandon had final say, Dick never overruled a Modrak recommendation when it came to a specific position. So, yes, Dick did decide to take a safety over a quarterback, for instance, but he took the safety on the board rated highest by Modrak.

 

This is an important distinction. In 2009, Modrak wanted Cushing. Fine. But he also had Maybin rated as his #1 DE-pass rusher. Thought Orakpo took too many plays off. So when Jauron-Brandon decided they needed a pass rusher, they went with the guy Modrak recommended. And the guy they passed on went to the Pro Bowl.

 

This was hardly the first time that happpened.

 

In 2008, our needs were identified in post-season review as CB and a WR. We went with Modrak's recommendations of McKelvin and Hardy and passed on a Pro Bowler in both cases (Rodgers-Cromartie in the 1st and DeSean Jackson in the 2nd). In 2007, Modrak had a mid-1st round grade on Poz so we traded up to get him instead of standing pat and getting a better player in David Harris. In 2006, we went up to get John McCargo, another guy Modrak had a 1st round grade on (Modrak was the source for his friend Len Pasquarelli's article about the guy).

 

In the Donahoe era, Modrak selected Roscoe Parrish over Vincent Jackson (taken 6 picks later). He was instrumental in the Losman selection (also source for this Pasquarelli article suggesting JP could go 1st round). In 2003, he recommended Kelsay over Osi Umenyiora (taken 8 picks later). This isn't hindsight bias a la Tom Brady in the 6th round...we're talking about the pick coming down to 2 guys, Modrak recommending one and the VERY NEXT GUY off the board at the position goes to the pro bowl.

 

You all want to pretend this was a good draft, that the "new regime" is taking a fresh approach and getting the right guys in place, fine. You can believe that...glad Russ Brandon didn't have to work hard with the spin this year. But just know that the same guy who made all of bum recommendations in the past is the same guy who recommended Troup over Linval Joseph and Carrington over Earl Mitchell (perfect 3-4 DE who played DT at Arizona).

 

If the past is any guide, watch for Troup and Carrington to struggle while Joseph and Mitchell head to Honolulu.

 

whatever

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

I am amused by all of the posts talking about the "new" front office and how different things are now that Buddy Nix is running the show. It's total nonsense. All they did was elevate a semi-retired scout to the GM position at the same time they promoted Brandon to CEO -- meaning Buddy's position in the pecking order barely changed. They traded Doug Whaley for John Guy and that's a big improvement, no doubt about it, but all of the commentators have focused thus far on the draft.

 

The college scouting operation is all the same, headed by Tom Modrak, the guy who's run our drafts since 2002. I've had numerous conversations with people in the organization about the draft process. While Dick Jauron and Brandon had final say, Dick never overruled a Modrak recommendation when it came to a specific position. So, yes, Dick did decide to take a safety over a quarterback, for instance, but he took the safety on the board rated highest by Modrak.

 

This is an important distinction. In 2009, Modrak wanted Cushing. Fine. But he also had Maybin rated as his #1 DE-pass rusher. Thought Orakpo took too many plays off. So when Jauron-Brandon decided they needed a pass rusher, they went with the guy Modrak recommended. And the guy they passed on went to the Pro Bowl.

 

This was hardly the first time that happpened.

 

In 2008, our needs were identified in post-season review as CB and a WR. We went with Modrak's recommendations of McKelvin and Hardy and passed on a Pro Bowler in both cases (Rodgers-Cromartie in the 1st and DeSean Jackson in the 2nd). In 2007, Modrak had a mid-1st round grade on Poz so we traded up to get him instead of standing pat and getting a better player in David Harris. In 2006, we went up to get John McCargo, another guy Modrak had a 1st round grade on (Modrak was the source for his friend Len Pasquarelli's article about the guy).

 

In the Donahoe era, Modrak selected Roscoe Parrish over Vincent Jackson (taken 6 picks later). He was instrumental in the Losman selection (also source for this Pasquarelli article suggesting JP could go 1st round). In 2003, he recommended Kelsay over Osi Umenyiora (taken 8 picks later). This isn't hindsight bias a la Tom Brady in the 6th round...we're talking about the pick coming down to 2 guys, Modrak recommending one and the VERY NEXT GUY off the board at the position goes to the pro bowl.

 

You all want to pretend this was a good draft, that the "new regime" is taking a fresh approach and getting the right guys in place, fine. You can believe that...glad Russ Brandon didn't have to work hard with the spin this year. But just know that the same guy who made all of bum recommendations in the past is the same guy who recommended Troup over Linval Joseph and Carrington over Earl Mitchell (perfect 3-4 DE who played DT at Arizona).

 

If the past is any guide, watch for Troup and Carrington to struggle while Joseph and Mitchell head to Honolulu.

 

I could care less about defending Modrak, but I think there's a lot of speculation here on your part. Do you know Modrak's evaluations on guys like Umenyiora, Deshean Jackson, David Harris, etc., or who had the stay in the draft room? For instance, Modrak could have had Harris rated higher than Poz, but McKelvin as the best corner.

[Lurker]

whatever

Agreed. While he was here, TD had the biggest influence on who was chosen in the first two rounds, just as DJ did after Whitey was fired. You can make an agrument that Modrak's evaluations were off, but not that he's some Svengali making the picks.

 

Funny (sad) article on Roscoe pick.

 

I suspect Nix will slowly replace/upgrade the scouting department this year, with Modrak likely to retire at some point in the near future...

[transient]

I feel this is a bit too oversimplefied. Not only are players graded by talent, but by how they would fit into a system. Under DJ, on D it was undersized and speed (sort of) which describes Maybin (who may not have been the best talent, but may have been deemed a better fit, and therefore graded higher by the Bills), and who knows what the hell the theme was for offense.

 

Cromartie, Jackson, Jackson, Umenyiora, and Harris all were drafted into situations where there were already other pieces in place, which I'm sure helped. And Cromartie comes with some baggage (9 kids by 5 women and counting). Essentially, with the exception of Harris, at the time of their drafting the players you cite all went to much better teams than the Bills, and he truly came into his own under Ryan's defensive scheme. I think we'd all agree that it is hard to grade any receiver we've drafted since Bledsoe's first season with the Bills, cuz you don't know what they look like in an NFL offense.

 

It appears that the new regime has a better idea of what they want the team to look like on the field, which ultimately will help them in identifying the talent to run it. Also, w/ Nix (a talent evaluator himself) as GM, I would tend to bet he has a bit more to do with the final makeup of the draft board, and more say in who is ultimately taken than DJ, Levy, or Brandon did (and rightly so).

[Mr_Blizzard]

 

Thanks for your insight Gabe

[Doc]

So, how much does Nix trust Modrak? Nix is a scout himself and probably trusts his own instincts more than Modrak's. And since he's the GM, what he says goes.

 

Moreover, for the past 4 years, the Bills have operated without a true GM, so listening to Modrak might have seemed like the best idea. And TD was supposed to have rebuilt the Steelers with Modrak as his right hand man. So again trusting him might have seemed like a smart move on TD's part.

[sllib olaffub]

Nicely written post. I agree that Modrak had a hand in missing on some talent. Yet, to say that these other players would have performed as well here is something no one knows for sure. Coaching does play a role. A lot of teams miss on players. He's been wrong on the high round picks - which is troublesome - but, he's been pretty good with finding talent later in the draft. All in all, I think you look at not one draft, but the overall production of the players drafted in his time here. Is it good enough? I'm thinking Nix will look to upgrade, because he's obviously not doing a good enough job, or we wouldn't be having this discussion. Now that Nix is the GM, though, I'd say this years picks were his responsibility. Whether Modrak was responsible for bad desicions in the past, we do have a GM now that has a reputation for knowing talent - and then there's Waley (spelling?) who should have an imput on players, too. My guess is that if Nix can upgrade any position in the F.O. he'll do so, but as of this year the picks have to come back to him - and I like the draft picks.

I'll keep an eye on those other players, though - Mitchell and Joseph - I'm curious.

[BillnutinHouston]

I feel this is a bit too oversimplefied. Not only are players graded by talent, but by how they would fit into a system.

 

Cromartie, Jackson, Jackson, Umenyiora, and Harris all were drafted into situations where there were already other pieces in place, which I'm sure helped.

 

Also, w/ Nix (a talent evaluator himself) as GM, I would tend to bet he has a bit more to do with the final makeup of the draft board, and more say in who is ultimately taken than DJ, Levy, or Brandon did (and rightly so).

 

Great points. Thanks for exposing Gabe's anti-Modrak agenda. Obviously what goes into draft decisions, and how those selections perform on a given team, is more complex than Gabe is willing to acknowledge.

[Thoner7]

Tom Modrack has been head of scouting since 2002

 

Since 2002, our drafts have sucked.

 

I refuse to believe Modrak should be given benifit of the doubt.

[BillsVet]

whatever

 

Excellent counter-argument.

 

So, how much does Nix trust Modrak? Nix is a scout himself and probably trusts his own instincts more than Modrak's. And since he's the GM, what he says goes.

 

Moreover, for the past 4 years, the Bills have operated without a true GM, so listening to Modrak might have seemed like the best idea. And TD was supposed to have rebuilt the Steelers with Modrak as his right hand man. So again trusting him might have seemed like a smart move on TD's part.

 

I understand the HC and quasi-GM listening to Modrak from 06-09, given his position in the organization. Unfortunately, Levy, Jauron, and Brandon leaned too heavily on people like Modrak and Guy, who weren't solid enough talent evaluators. The result is poor drafts and bad FA acquisitions.

 

Generally, when new GM's enter the fray, as Levy and now Nix have, the amateur scouting and pro personnel directors are axed. Why Buffalo chose to simply change GM's is odd, but then again, I think only RW can fire people at OBD.

[Doc]

I understand the HC and quasi-GM listening to Modrak from 06-09, given his position in the organization. Unfortunately, Levy, Jauron, and Brandon leaned too heavily on people like Modrak and Guy, who weren't solid enough talent evaluators. The result is poor drafts and bad FA acquisitions.

 

Generally, when new GM's enter the fray, as Levy and now Nix have, the amateur scouting and pro personnel directors are axed. Why Buffalo chose to simply change GM's is odd, but then again, I think only RW can fire people at OBD.

They did more than change GM's. They fired Chuck Lester for Pete's sake!

 

Seriously though, they reassigned Brandon to marketing, fired Guy, hired Whaley as AGM, and added more scouts. Then they fired all but 2 of the previous coaches and axed the training staff.

[Lurker]

Generally, when new GM's enter the fray, as Levy and now Nix have, the amateur scouting and pro personnel directors are axed. Why Buffalo chose to simply change GM's is odd, but then again

Your vendetta against the Bills is coloring your thoughts, as usual. Nix was hired as GM on December 31, 2009---well into the scouting season. Letting Modrak go at that point would be akin to firing the offensive cooridinator the week before the season starts...

[/dev/null]

Let's not forget that Modrak was hired by Donahoe.

 

Donahoe, as was well documented on TSW, is in fact the Son of Satan

 

So what does that make Modrak?

[MississippiBob]

"it could also relate to coaching. not all talent necessarily displays itself, especially in the early years of either the coaches or the player

 

bad coaching can damage productive players, just saying ..."

 

 

 

Very well said, and I am in complete agreement!!!!

[BillsVet]

They did more than change GM's. They fired Chuck Lester for Pete's sake!

 

Seriously though, they reassigned Brandon to marketing, fired Guy, hired Whaley as AGM, and added more scouts. Then they fired all but 2 of the previous coaches and axed the training staff.

 

Brandon was promoted to CEO, answering only to RW and overseeing the entire op. I understand this as RW is an elderly man and cannot possibly review the entire organization. Besides, Brandon has marketed a losing product quite well.

 

There were changes made, but the wholesale ones we were led to believe didn't happen. This administration on paper is better than the previous ones, but how much is anyone's guess. Additionally, improving upon a former HC and the business marketing guy moonlighting as GM isn't very hard.