France Threatens Withdrawl

[/dev/null]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/expatnews...ut-of-euro.html

 

Okay all Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey jokes aside, the Euro would be doomed if France withdrew. France, UK, and Germany are the bulk of the Euro Zone's financial clout. The UK has never been 100% into the whole Euro thing and with the new Tory government, France's withdrawl might prompt a British withdrawl.

[Magox]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/expatnews...ut-of-euro.html

 

Okay all Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey jokes aside, the Euro would be doomed if France withdrew. France, UK, and Germany are the bulk of the Euro Zone's financial clout. The UK has never been 100% into the whole Euro thing and with the new Tory government, France's withdrawl might prompt a British withdrawl.

It's just a bunch of political posturing, they wouldn't think of actually withdrawing, not at this time anyway. Sort of like when Karzai told the U.S, that if they kept pissing him off he would partner with the Taliban, basically the same thing. It's more frustration and posturing than anything. However, it does show the fractured nature of the Euro region, what was once thought to be a unifying dynamic in creating the Euro currency is proving to be a divisive force.

 

I don't know what the Northern Europeans were thinking in allowing the Southern Europeans in joining to form the Euro currency. I'm sure Luxembourg, Germany and the Netherlands are all regretting this decision. And now, poor Merkel, is put in a tough situation, if she agrees to help bail out these countries, they lose elections and they will most likely be forced out, if they don't help, all hell will break loose.

 

It just goes to show you that the Welfare state model doesn't work, it is unsustainable if you don't have the ability to generate the revenues to keep your debt under control.

 

Everyone says, "look at us the U.S, we are the only developed nation that doesn't provide health care for all our citizens, look at Europe". Well, this is one of the potential pitfalls of providing free costly services for everyone, and that is that SOMEONE HAS TO PAY FOR THE !@#$ING THING!!

 

It's only a matter of time before Central banks, banks, investors look to our debt and ponder whether or not they want to be holding U.S treasuries, and once the bond vigilantes come out of the wood works, watch out!! Rates will go high, the dollar will plummet and the FEDERAL RESERVE will come to the rescue and we'll essentially print money out of thin air to fund our debt. Of course the dollar will dramatically fall, the cost of everything we buy will rise, corporate bonds will sky rocket, hiring will be choked off, and THEN and only THEN will we finally begin making the necessary cuts in Medicare, S.S, Defense and other areas to try bring this all under control.

[John Adams]

The EU has doom written all over it. 1T to Greece won't get them to fix themselves because they lack the political backbone. And what's happening in Greece now is nothing compared to what is on the horizon in Spain and Portugal.

 

Hold off on your European vacations for a few years. In no time, your dollars will go a long ways in Europe.

[Magox]

The EU has doom written all over it. 1T to Greece won't get them to fix themselves because they lack the political backbone. And what's happening in Greece now is nothing compared to what is on the horizon in Spain and Portugal.

 

Hold off on your European vacations for a few years. In no time, your dollars will go a long ways in Europe.

Interesting dynamic is taking place right now. In a way this European currency crisis is actually causing a positive unintended consequence. People are fleeing European bonds and rushing into U.S treasuries. So as a result of their crisis, money is flowing over here, causing treasury and mortgage rates to remain low. This will ensure more funding/borrowing for our outlandish spending, while keeping the cost of servicing our debt at a more manageable level and essentially will help buy time for us to get our fiscal house in order. It could actually be a blessing, but only if we beging to make the necessary and difficult cuts soon. This crisis may have bought us an additional couple years if my thinking comes to fruition, which I believe it will.

[KD in CA]

Everyone says, "look at us the U.S, we are the only developed nation that doesn't provide health care for all our citizens, look at Europe". Well, this is one of the potential pitfalls of providing free costly services for everyone, and that is that SOMEONE HAS TO PAY FOR THE !@#$ING THING!!

 

To paraphrase Margaret Thatcher: The problem with socialism is eventually you run out of other peoples' money.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

The EU has doom written all over it. 1T to Greece won't get them to fix themselves because they lack the political backbone. And what's happening in Greece now is nothing compared to what is on the horizon in Spain and Portugal.

 

Hold off on your European vacations for a few years. In no time, your dollars will go a long ways in Europe.

 

So much for those "civilized" people preaching to us heathen barbarians.

[jjamie12]

It's only a matter of time before Central banks, banks, investors look to our debt and ponder whether or not they want to be holding U.S treasuries, and once the bond vigilantes come out of the wood works, watch out!!

 

What will their alternative be?

[Magox]

What will their alternative be?

That's a good question. My best guess is that you would see money flowing into either the Yen, the Bund, other Asian bonds and hard assets. Whoever provides the most liquidity and appears to have the best fiscal situation. Either way, we'd pretty much ALL be !@#$ed one way or another.

[John Adams]

That's a good question. My best guess is that you would see money flowing into either the Yen, the Bund, other Asian bonds and hard assets. Whoever provides the most liquidity and appears to have the best fiscal situation. Either way, we'd pretty much ALL be !@#$ed one way or another.

 

It will be interesting indeed. The Chinese economy has its own problems. Sure they have lots of liquid but they also have issues with inflation and that ignores the always-looming political rise that can happen at any point. And they are tied hand in hand with the US.

 

I don't know that we're all !@#$ed but I do think the US has time to start turning the ship if it acts soon. Sadly, I see the US in what is happening in Greece, where even in the face of impending doom, the Grecian politicians couldn't make the decision to cut spending. I fear our pols are in that same boat.

[KD in CA]

Sadly, I see the US in what is happening in Greece, where even in the face of impending doom, the Grecian politicians couldn't make the decision to cut spending. I fear our pols are in that same boat.

Don't have to look much further than what's happening in Albany or Sacramento to understand that we are headed for the same cliff.

 

Meanwhile, one of our municipal customers in CA sent a letter last week to all its vendors begging for a renegotiation of the terms of their contract given the state's fiscal woes. Yeah, we'll get right on that -- just as soon as CA puts the brakes on its trillion dollar government employee pension scam.

[DrFishfinder]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/expatnews...ut-of-euro.html

 

Okay all Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey jokes aside, the Euro would be doomed if France withdrew. France, UK, and Germany are the bulk of the Euro Zone's financial clout. The UK has never been 100% into the whole Euro thing and with the new Tory government, France's withdrawl might prompt a British withdrawl.

The French aren't behoven to anyone.

 

Wait....that's a different thread......sorry.

[IDBillzFan]

The French aren't behoven to anyone.

 

Wait....that's a different thread......sorry.

Is "behoven" a French word?

[/dev/null]

Is "behoven" a French word?

It's a perfectly crumulent word, you just need to embiggen your vocabulary

[DrFishfinder]

Is "behoven" a French word?

I think it's a German word for, "Big poofy hairdo."

[erynthered]

Don't have to look much further than what's happening in Albany or Sacramento to understand that we are headed for the same cliff.

 

 

Our so called leaders see the cliff and dont care, as long as they get re-elected. We need a jehadi. I'm from Buffalo so thats how I say it.

[meazza]

That's a good question. My best guess is that you would see money flowing into either the Yen, the Bund, other Asian bonds and hard assets. Whoever provides the most liquidity and appears to have the best fiscal situation. Either way, we'd pretty much ALL be !@#$ed one way or another.

 

I think what happened to the Euro will be a very long term blessing for the greenback. I highly doubt investors will in the medium term switch to any other form of safe investment outside of the T-Bills. The Euro by some was touted by some as being the next main currency for oil etc, but when the going gets tough, they will always run back to the T-Bill.

[erynthered]

I think what happened to the Euro will be a very long term blessing for the greenback. I highly doubt investors will in the medium term switch to any other form of safe investment outside of the T-Bills. The Euro by some was touted by some as being the next main currency for oil etc, but when the going gets tough, they will always run back to the T-Bill.

 

 

Even with a collapse of the Euro?

[finknottle]

It's only a matter of time before Central banks, banks, investors look to our debt and ponder whether or not they want to be holding U.S treasuries, and once the bond vigilantes come out of the wood works, watch out!!

 

We demonize the bond vigilantes regularly these days, which led me to wonder what one is exactly. As far as I can tell, it's the boogie man. The man who isn't there. You know, that guy who wouldn't buy your crappy bond at 2%, and wandered off to invest his money elsewhere. The bond vigilante is the guy who doesn't exist, the guy who you think is obligated to lend you money on your terms.

 

I've seen the bond vigilante, and he is you. And I. And every other person who didn't buy Greek bonds this spring.

 

We demonize the vigilantes as if they are actively driving countries to ruin. Seriously, is there a more tangible meaning that I am overlooking? Or is this just a mental creation, a usefull way to explain economics, analogous to the helpfull but misleading way we assign intention and purpose to evolution in Biology? 20 minutes searching on the internet came up with no real definitions.

[meazza]

Even with a collapse of the Euro?

 

I was saying before this mess. For example, this summer I had discussions with some colleagues on why the Euro would replace the greenback in paying for oil.

[erynthered]

I was saying before this mess. For example, this summer I had discussions with some colleagues on why the Euro would replace the greenback in paying for oil.

 

 

Thanks