folz Posted May 11, 2010 Posted May 11, 2010 We always talk about where QBs are found, some say you have to get one in the first round, others point to Brady going in the 6th, etc. So, I thought I would take a look at the projected 2010 NFL starting QBs to see where they were drafted. I'll post the full list below (and I could be wrong about who some of the starters will be) but it breaks down like this: Of the 33 potential starters (not counting our Bills...w/2 possibilities each from Clev and SF): 19 1st rounders 5 2nd rounders 2 3rd rounders 2 4th rounders 0 5th rounders 2 6th rounders 1 7th rounders 2 UDFA And just a note: last year Warner and Moore both had starts as UDFAs (I assume CAR will start Claussen this year) So, the overwhelming majority are 1st rounders. Granted some of them are young and may not pan out...but, for this purpose I'm only looking at if they are a starter, not how good a starter they are, I'll let you guys debate that if you care to. But, most are indeed 1st rounders, however, 24% are 4th round or lower and 18% 6th round or lower. And on the other side of the coin, you have the 49ers who have 2 not just 1st rounders, but #1 overall picks, neither of whom I would feel comfortable with...And then there are the Raiders who before releasing Russell actually had 4 1st round QBs (Russell, Boller, Campbell, and Losman) along with a 3rd and 6th round selections (Frye and Gradkowski)...will any of them ever happen? And speaking of the Raiders QBs, I found this interesting article comparing them... http://drafthistory.com/ Scroll down and check out the stat graphics comparing the QBs...how much better is Campbell than JP? Maybe not as much as some of us thought (statistics-wise at least)...the article quote on JP is: "And I've overlooked former Buffalo Bill starter J.P. Losman, who won a championship in the UFL last season before joining the Raiders at year end. Look at Losman's career statistics, which in many respects appear better than all the other's except Campbell. Losman completes a fair percentage of his passes, for as many yards per attempt as Campbell, throws nearly as many touchdowns as interceptions, but does have a hard time making decisions which results in an inordinate number of sacks. He was shell-shocked in Buffalo, but as a former number one draft pick, he may be worth the risk of keeping." That's it, just a few tidbits I thought I would pass along. Here's the (obviously unofficial) list: Mia Henne 2nd NE Brady 6th NYJ Sanchez 1st Buf Edwards 3rd/ Brohm 2nd/ Brown 7th/ Fitz 7th Bal Flacco 1st Cin Palmer 1st Cle Delhomme UFA/ McCoy 3rd Pitt Rothlisberger 1st Hou Schaub 3rd Ind Manning 1st Jax Garrard 4th Tenn Young 1st Den Orton 4th KC Cassel 7th Oak Campbell 1st SD Rivers 1st Dal Romo UFA NYG Manning 1st Phi Kolb 2nd Was McNabb 1st Chi Cutler 1st Det Stafford 1st GB Rodgers 1st Minn Favre? 2nd Atl Ryan 1st Car Claussen 2nd/ Moore UFA NO Brees 2nd TB Freeman 1st AZ Leinart? 1st Stl Bradford 1st SF Smith 1st/ Carr 1st Sea Hasselbeck 6th
Pilsner Posted May 11, 2010 Posted May 11, 2010 We always talk about where QBs are found, some say you have to get one in the first round,others point to Brady going in the 6th, etc. So, I thought I would take a look at the projected 2010 NFL starting QBs to see where they were drafted. I'll post the full list below (and I could be wrong about who some of the starters will be) but it breaks down like this: Of the 33 potential starters (not counting our Bills...w/2 possibilities each from Clev and SF): 20 1st rounders 3 2nd rounders 2 3rd rounders 2 4th rounders 0 5th rounders 2 6th rounders 2 7th rounders 2 UDFA And just a note: last year Warner and Moore both had starts as UDFAs (I assume CAR will start Claussen this year) So, the overwhelming majority are 1st rounders. Granted some of them are young and may not pan out...but, for this purpose I'm only looking at if they are a starter, not how good a starter they are, I'll let you guys debate that if you care to. But, most are indeed 1st rounders, however, 24% are 4th round or lower and 18% 6th round or lower. And on the other side of the coin, you have the 49ers who have 2 not just 1st rounders, but #1 overall picks, neither of whom I would feel comfortable with...And then there are the Raiders who before releasing Russell actually had 4 1st round QBs (Russell, Boller, Campbell, and Losman) along with a 3rd and 6th round selections (Frye and Gradkowski)...will any of them ever happen? And speaking of the Raiders QBs, I found this interesting article comparing them... http://drafthistory.com/ Scroll down and check out the stat graphics comparing the QBs...how much better is Campbell than JP? Maybe not as much as some of us thought (statistics-wise at least)...the article quote on JP is: "And I've overlooked former Buffalo Bill starter J.P. Losman, who won a championship in the UFL last season before joining the Raiders at year end. Look at Losman's career statistics, which in many respects appear better than all the other's except Campbell. Losman completes a fair percentage of his passes, for as many yards per attempt as Campbell, throws nearly as many touchdowns as interceptions, but does have a hard time making decisions which results in an inordinate number of sacks. He was shell-shocked in Buffalo, but as a former number one draft pick, he may be worth the risk of keeping." That's it, just a few tidbits I thought I would pass along. Here's the (obviously unofficial) list: Mia Henne 7th NE Brady 6th NYJ Sanchez 1st Buf Edwards 3rd/ Brohm 2nd/ Brown 7th/ Fitz 7th Bal Flacco 1st Cin Palmer 1st Cle Delhomme UFA/ McCoy 1st Pitt Rothlisberger 1st Hou Schaub 3rd Ind Manning 1st Jax Garrard 4th Tenn Young 1st Den Orton 4th KC Cassel 7th Oak Campbell 1st SD Rivers 1st Dal Romo UFA NYG Manning 1st Phi Kolb 2nd Was McNabb 1st Chi Cutler 1st Det Stafford 1st GB Rodgers 1st Minn Favre? 2nd Atl Ryan 1st Car Claussen 1st/ Moore UFA NO Brees 2nd TB Freeman 1st AZ Leinart? 1st Stl Bradford 1st SF Smith 1st/ Carr 1st Sea Hasselbeck 6th Clausen was picked 48th overall, and McCoy in the 2nd or 3rd round, can't recall. Good read tho. Very interesting actually. Thanks for the info
folz Posted May 11, 2010 Author Posted May 11, 2010 Clausen was picked 48th overall, and McCoy in the 2nd or 3rd round, can't recall. Good read tho. Very interesting actually. Thanks for the info Yeah, fixed the post..thanks. Don't know how I screwed that up, I guess I still had predraft talk on my brain.
earthtobrint Posted May 11, 2010 Posted May 11, 2010 Another quick correction: Chad Henne was drafted in the 2nd round, not the 7th. That is interesting, though. Despite all the bust quarterbacks in round one, that round is still where the most starters come from.
CarolinaBill Posted May 11, 2010 Posted May 11, 2010 keep in mind QB is easily the most difficult position to play in ALL of sports, so naturally the top of the talent pool is where you should find most of the top performers, every now and then one slips by (brady warner romo) but even the maj of those 2nd rd qbs on that list slipped out of lack of necessity not necessarily lack of talent.
Dr. Fong Posted May 11, 2010 Posted May 11, 2010 Another quick correction: Chad Henne was drafted in the 2nd round, not the 7th. That is interesting, though. Despite all the bust quarterbacks in round one, that round is still where the most starters come from. I think that has just as much to do with the fact that franchises have invested a lot of time, money, and a first round pick in these players. Therefore, they are proportionately more likely to be named the starter even if their success on the field might not dictate that they should be.
Pilsner Posted May 11, 2010 Posted May 11, 2010 I think that has just as much to do with the fact that franchises have invested a lot of time, money, and a first round pick in these players. Therefore, they are proportionately more likely to be named the starter even if their success on the field might not dictate that they should be. Good point. Late round picks can be discarded without much afterthought if they don't pan out. But if you pick em high you tend to keep them around a bit longer to "hopefully" prove to the naysayers that your pick was legit.
earthtobrint Posted May 11, 2010 Posted May 11, 2010 I think that has just as much to do with the fact that franchises have invested a lot of time, money, and a first round pick in these players. Therefore, they are proportionately more likely to be named the starter even if their success on the field might not dictate that they should be. That's true. But from the list of starters, the only 1st rounders starting that haven't earned the spot and are playing more by default or due to the investment would be Matt Leinert and Alex Smith. Stafford and Freeman fit under the category of unknown ability. That still leaves largely first rounders starting.
Dr. Fong Posted May 11, 2010 Posted May 11, 2010 That's true. But from the list of starters, the only 1st rounders starting that haven't earned the spot and are playing more by default or due to the investment would be Matt Leinert and Alex Smith. Stafford and Freeman fit under the category of unknown ability. That still leaves largely first rounders starting. At best I come up with 11 legitimate proven starters that were taken in the first round. That's giving Sanchez the benefit of the doubt. NYJ Sanchez 1st Bal Flacco 1st Cin Palmer 1st Pitt Rothlisberger 1st Ind Manning 1st SD Rivers 1st NYG Manning 1st Was McNabb 1st Chi Cutler 1st GB Rodgers 1st Atl Ryan 1st The original poster said he wasn't debating ability, just pointing out that the majority of the likely starters next season would be first round picks. I'm just saying I don't see it as slanted towards the first round as he does due to certain factors that benefit first round picks getting on the field.
peteski Posted May 11, 2010 Posted May 11, 2010 I don't think Clausen will start this year unless there is an injury. The Panthers are pretty high on Moore.
Pilsner Posted May 11, 2010 Posted May 11, 2010 I don't think Clausen will start this year unless there is an injury. The Panthers are pretty high on Moore. I think they'll start Moore too...for now. But why draft Pike? that one made me think.
CarolinaBill Posted May 11, 2010 Posted May 11, 2010 I think they'll start Moore too...for now. But why draft Pike? that one made me think. IMO the panthers are praying that moore has a good yr so they can trade him next yr for something good and clausen will take over in 2011 leaving TP as the backup
GrudginglyPessimistic Posted May 11, 2010 Posted May 11, 2010 The other factor which I think needs to figured prominently into this equation if one is considering the question of whether your team should draft a QB in the 1st is not merely how many starter or stud QBs are 1st rounders but also how many of these franchise QBs play for the teams which drafted them in the 1st round. There are certainly a number of prominent examples of players who were drafted in the 1st round such as Trent Dilfer was who proved a total bust for the team which picked him and then after he went FA landed in a situation were this first rounder then went on to win an SB with another team. Granted one can claim in this case that his Ravens gig was a special case, but a good statistical analysis would also include: A. Early round picks like Favre, Young or most recent SB winner Drew Brees who were declared a loser or worth parting with by the team which chose them but went on to storied carriers with SB winners. B. A number of definite 1st round choices who actually did not play with the team which selected them for various reasons but ended up leading other teams to SB victories with draft day or near draft day trades that had them develop elsewhere such as Elway or the more recent Eli Manning. Granted the trades happened so quickly that one might consider these players to essentially have been developed by the teams which acquired them on draft day, but for analysis of the real world situation the impacts on cap issues and items such as the quality of the team they ended up with are relevant to this consideration. C. Another factor which needs to be considered as part of the specific consideration whether a team is better off picking a QB in the first (again quite a different thing than having a 1st round selection leading your team) is the broader consideration that not only are you weighing this option against finding a Tom Brady in the 6th or a Joe Montana in the 3rd is that real world examples of SB winning QBs have been found through a variety of means from plucking Kurt Warner from his previous job as a boxboy for Walmart to finding two time loser Brad Johnson to lead your TB team. The simple facts of the case are that the recent successes in leading a team to an SB win for the teams which drafted them of Peyton Manning and Ben RoboQB are actually relative rarities where the previous successful example of a team drafting a QB in the 1st who led the team which drafted him to an SB win goes back to the late 80s pick of Troy Aikman by Dallas. Rather than picking a QB in the first being an obvious way to get the QB you need, this method was essentially not successful in delivering an SB win during the entire collection of players chosen in the 90s and early in the current millenium until Manning led the team which chose him to an SB win in the later 2000s. In fact if the requirements are that the player chosen by the Bills needs to either be as good as P. Manning or the team need to be as good as the Pitts team which RoboQB fit into then looking at both the quality of the players whom the Bills has a shot at and making an assessment of how good the Bills were then drafting a QB in the first would have been a pretty bad move by the Bills in retrospect since they acquired Jimbo.
silvermike Posted May 11, 2010 Posted May 11, 2010 I start to get the most skeptical of QBs after the middle of the 2nd round, until we get into the total who dat category in the 6th and 7th. When there's a guy on the board who has legitimate starting potential (say, better than 50% odds), he'll rarely make it out of the first round, and even Clausen went with a team's first pick. After that, I think the guys drafted in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th tend to be backup types. It's too early to make a very risky pick on a guy who might be Tom Brady, but 10:1 he's just Rohan Davey, so those longshot guys tend to drop. Instead, the names that peek out in that range are the Trent Edwards types - future journeymen.
bbfan54 Posted May 11, 2010 Posted May 11, 2010 It would also be interesting to know how many QBs are picked in each round. Some rounds may have more QBs selected than others which makes it more likely that at least a few will be successful.
StamerforPrez Posted May 11, 2010 Posted May 11, 2010 I could see a QB controversy happening very soon in Oakland if they keep JP. I always thought of Campbell as very similar to JP with the inconsistant play surrounded by subpar personnel, and the flashes of brilliance.
Mr. WEO Posted May 11, 2010 Posted May 11, 2010 I could see a QB controversy happening very soon in Oakland if they keep JP. I always thought of Campbell as very similar to JP with the inconsistant play surrounded by subpar personnel, and the flashes of brilliance. ??????
folz Posted May 11, 2010 Author Posted May 11, 2010 Another quick correction: Chad Henne was drafted in the 2nd round, not the 7th. Yes, fixed...thanks. The other factor which I think needs to figured prominently into this equation if one is considering the question of whether your team should draft a QB in the 1st is not merely how many starter or stud QBs are 1st rounders but also how many of these franchise QBs play for the teams which drafted them in the 1st round. Good point. Without looking up each guy, I saw at least 9 starting QBs who are starting for a team they weren't drafted by (Delhomme, Orton, Cassel, Campbell, Romo, McNabb, Cutler, Favre, and Brees). Only 3 of those are 1st rounders (one of whom is McNabb who played the majority of his career with the team that drafted him). So, I guess that goes to the point that others were making, when a team drafts a QB in the first, they don't like to get rid of them too soon even if they aren't panning out because they want to prove they made the right pick, or because they spent a lot of money on him, etc. But also, when a 1st rounder is good, most teams will hang on to them, when they bust then they aren't really worth picking up, so very few 1st rounders get traded and then help the new team. But obviously teams can and do get QBs that can help the team via trade. At best I come up with 11 legitimate proven starters that were taken in the first round. The original poster said he wasn't debating ability, just pointing out that the majority of the likely starters next season would be first round picks. I'm just saying I don't see it as slanted towards the first round as he does due to certain factors that benefit first round picks getting on the field. That sounds about right 11 out of the 19, although I think a couple more might reach that level (Bradford, Young, maybe one or two more) but its just still too early to tell. I really just started looking up the info to see how many lower round guys were starting to see if statistically there was a chance that a 7th rounder (Levi) could be a starter in the future. And of course all I learned was what we already knew, the odds are low for a 7th rounder to turn into a legit starter (12.5-15.5% based solely on 2010 starters), but it has and does happen. I could see a QB controversy happening very soon in Oakland if they keep JP. I always thought of Campbell as very similar to JP with the inconsistant play surrounded by subpar personnel, and the flashes of brilliance. Yeah, that could be interesting...our former QB vs. a guy some fans wanted us to trade for.
yungmack Posted May 11, 2010 Posted May 11, 2010 A. Early round picks like Favre, Young or most recent SB winner Drew Brees who were declared a loser or worth parting with by the team which chose them but went on to storied carriers with SB winners. Steve Young was NOT "declared a loser." He came out of the USFL when it folded, along with Jim Kelly. Both guys went to the NFL teams that drafted them. Neither was particularly happy about it. Especially Young, who hated Tampa Bay and forced a trade. (For you young'uns who think the Bills stink, you need to go back and check out the Bucs. Now that's stinking it up)
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