My thoughts on the Bills' draft

[Orton's Arm]

Negatives

• The Bills went into this offseason with gaping holes at some of the hardest-to-fill positions: QB and LT. They did not address either position until the fifth round of the draft.
  
• The Bills used the ninth overall pick to address the RB position. A new RB was low down on their list of needs, and RBs typically have shorter useful careers than other players. For example, Edgerrin James was drafted a year after Peyton Manning, had a successful career, but ceased to be a starter at some point in the 2007 season. Meanwhile, Manning is still going strong.
  
• The Bills passed up Jimmy Clausen in the second round. If he has a successful career for Carolina, that decision will appear foolish.
  

Positives

• Even if the Bills had stayed with the 4-3, they would have needed a significant infusion of talent into their front seven. Only Poz and Kyle Williams represented front seven players who were both a) playing at a high level, and b) young enough to have a number of good years left in them. Of the five starting-caliber players the Bills needed to add to that front seven, they seem to have added two in free agency, and, possibly, two to three more in the draft.
  
• This draft probably also brought some solid backups to the front seven. A necessity, considering the switch to the 3-4.
  
• Spiller was--at least according to most draft experts--the highest-rated player when the Bills picked at #9. That's encouraging as far as it goes.
  
• Apparently Gailey's offense needs a "water bug" (or whatever he called it) type player; making Spiller more of a need than might first appear.
  
• The offense needed a QB, LT, and offensive weapons. With the addition of Spiller and Easley, it got at least one new weapon, and maybe two.
  
• At least initially, the Bills look to have fewer needs going into the 2011 offseason than they had going into the 2010 offseason. That's progress.
  

At least initially, I think that this draft represented a solid addition of talent to our team. Going into 2011, odds are very good that the Bills will still be in need of a LT and a QB. But if they focus on those two positions with their early picks in 2011 then, in combination with the 2010 draft, this should turn out to be a solid team.

[Green Lightning]

I think that sums it up pretty well.

[The Senator]

Sounds like you give them about a 3.5

[sllib olaffub]

I like the rookies that were brought in on the defensive front seven. If Maybin pans out, with Poz, and then Batten, Moats, and Coleman - I think linebacker will be a strength. Then you've got Troupe and Carrington to add to Stroud, Williams, and Edwards, along with our secondary - that is a group to get excited about. Our defense is going to be good.

Offensively, I think they're looking at next year for QB. Really, that makes thinking about success too much this year futile. Obviously the F.O. is working on a two year plan, so, as far as draft position, it makes more sense for us to lose a lot this year. But, I think although they are planning on adding the offensive key parts next offseason they're still going to play to win this year for the sake of experience and reputation. We're bringing back respectability to this team, we're changing the mentality of the players, and at this time next year we'll be a darkhorse team, one that is on the rise, that is young, and hopefully that just got the best QB in the 2011 draft.

For the sake of being able to make the trade to get the best QB next year, I hope we do find a way to bring in our future LT this year, so the line will be ready - and, with a good O-line this year and that D, I think we could contend for a wildcard spot.

[tennesseeboy]

Negatives

• The Bills went into this offseason with gaping holes at some of the hardest-to-fill positions: QB and LT. They did not address either position until the fifth round of the draft.
  
• The Bills used the ninth overall pick to address the RB position. A new RB was low down on their list of needs, and RBs typically have shorter useful careers than other players. For example, Edgerrin James was drafted a year after Peyton Manning, had a successful career, but ceased to be a starter at some point in the 2007 season. Meanwhile, Manning is still going strong.
  
• The Bills passed up Jimmy Clausen in the second round. If he has a successful career for Carolina, that decision will appear foolish.
  

Positives

• Even if the Bills had stayed with the 4-3, they would have needed a significant infusion of talent into their front seven. Only Poz and Kyle Williams represented front seven players who were both a) playing at a high level, and b) young enough to have a number of good years left in them. Of the five starting-caliber players the Bills needed to add to that front seven, they seem to have added two in free agency, and, possibly, two to three more in the draft.
  
• This draft probably also brought some solid backups to the front seven. A necessity, considering the switch to the 3-4.
  
• Spiller was--at least according to most draft experts--the highest-rated player when the Bills picked at #9. That's encouraging as far as it goes.
  
• Apparently Gailey's offense needs a "water bug" (or whatever he called it) type player; making Spiller more of a need than might first appear.
  
• The offense needed a QB, LT, and offensive weapons. With the addition of Spiller and Easley, it got at least one new weapon, and maybe two.
  
  
• At least initially, the Bills look to have fewer needs going into the 2011 offseason than they had going into the 2010 offseason. That's progress.
  

At least initially, I think that this draft represented a solid addition of talent to our team. Going into 2011, odds are very good that the Bills will still be in need of a LT and a QB. But if they focus on those two positions with their early picks in 2011 then, in combination with the 2010 draft, this should turn out to be a solid team.

I disagree...going into the 2010 season we had a lot more confidence in TE than we did going into this season, we had two high offensive line draft picks and some stability on the o-line. We had a pretty fine defense on paper particularly before the rash of injuries behind the front four. This year we have pretty much NOTHING on the offensive tackles, Wood coming back off a serious injury with very little depth on the o-line, a brand new 3-4 with most of the front seven either rookies or playing out of their natural positions. I think on paper this team is MUCH weaker than last year. I'm giving Gailey the benefit of the doubt to impose a nine-win litmus test as to whether the team is better or not. Wait and see.

[Gabe Northern]

Pretty good summary, but I think the draft depends on Troup.

 

Everyone assumes he can play, but most national scouts seem to think he was a 3rd rounder nabbed in the early 2nd.

 

If he sucks, the draft was a failure, unless Easley and the 2 6th round converted DEs turn out to be steals.

[R. Rich]

I'm giving Gailey the benefit of the doubt to impose a nine-win litmus test as to whether the team is better or not. Wait and see.

 

Well, that's better than the "everything and everyone sucks" mantra we've heard far too often. Oh, and I agree. Wait and see.....then "judge".

[PromoTheRobot]

You assume that starters and pro bowlers can only be had in the first two rounds.

 

PTR

[R. Rich]

You assume that starters and pro bowlers can only be had in the first two rounds.

 

PTR

 

 

Two rounds? You mean the draft is longer than one round? No way!

[DDD]

Pretty good summary, but I think the draft depends on Troup.

 

Everyone assumes he can play, but most national scouts seem to think he was a 3rd rounder nabbed in the early 2nd.

 

If he sucks, the draft was a failure, unless Easley and the 2 6th round converted DEs turn out to be steals.

 

Agreed. This was Nix thinking outside the box. Depending on Troup, Nix will be a genius or a goat. Let's hope Nix is a genius.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Sounds like you give them about a 3.5

 

 

[SpecialK15]

If you remember when Nix was getting his feet wet in his new role he said he was going to build this team through the draft. Looking at the draft as building a new team (again this is coming from both Gailey and Nix), they were going to choose the best player available regardless of position. If they knew they could get a better DE/DT than a QB in the second and third rounds, doesn't it make sense to go that route? I think so. I suppose we'll have to wait until these guys get the pads on and start playing ball. I have a feeling they want the team to get younger, instead of bring in older FAs.

[R. Rich]

If you remember when Nix was getting his feet wet in his new role he said he was going to build this team through the draft. Looking at the draft as building a new team (again this is coming from both Gailey and Nix), they were going to choose the best player available regardless of position. If they knew they could get a better DE/DT than a QB in the second and third rounds, doesn't it make sense to go that route? I think so. I suppose we'll have to wait until these guys get the pads on and start playing ball. I have a feeling they want the team to get younger, instead of bring in older FAs.

 

 

No! They must get those guys all in one draft, even if they have to reach for players they value less than players @ other positions. And, they had better check the message boards, so they're sure to draft "our guys".

[K-9]

Sounds like you give them about a 3.5

 

Well, at least he didn't have the Bills regressing to the mean this year.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Max997]

The Bills didnt like any of the QBs in the draft outside of Bradford so did you want them to draft one anyway? The QBs that are on the roster played in a cracker jack offense so why not see what they have in the guys that are already here before drafting another guy that is probably just more of the same. Its not like they wont have the opportunity to draft a QB next year with a better crop of QBs coming out.

 

I didnt have a problem with them selecting Spiller and in fact I loved it. He was the best offensive player in the draft and some think the best player overall and is the type of playmaker this team has been lacking for a long time. Fred Jackson is solid but you dont pass up a guy like Spiller just because you have another player on your roster at the same position. Minnesota drafted Peterson when they already had Chester Taylor on the roster, how did that work out? I still think Lynch gets traded especially if the Bills trade for a LT but even if he he doesnt get traded, there isnt anything wrong with having 3 capable backs all of which can line up wide

 

The Bills had a solid draft and added a playmaker as well as size and speed to a front seven that desperately needed it

[Malazan]

Grading a draft because they didn't fill 'perceived' needs is foolish. If you want to play with grades then at least grade the quality of the players and their body of work in college.

 

What happens if the Bills end up with one of the LTs that everyone is buzzing about? That does not change the quality of the players drafted in some way. You may want to grade the 'offseason' instead. It's a fallacy that not drafting a certain player is a negative.

[Steely Dan]

The Bills didnt like any of the QBs in the draft outside of Bradford so did you want them to draft one anyway? The QBs that are on the roster played in a cracker jack offense so why not see what they have in the guys that are already here before drafting another guy that is probably just more of the same. Its not like they wont have the opportunity to draft a QB next year with a better crop of QBs coming out.

 

I didnt have a problem with them selecting Spiller and in fact I loved it. He was the best offensive player in the draft and some think the best player overall and is the type of playmaker this team has been lacking for a long time. Fred Jackson is solid but you dont pass up a guy like Spiller just because you have another player on your roster at the same position. Minnesota drafted Peterson when they already had Chester Taylor on the roster, how did that work out? I still think Lynch gets traded especially if the Bills trade for a LT but even if he he doesnt get traded, there isnt anything wrong with having 3 capable backs all of which can line up wide

 

The Bills had a solid draft and added a playmaker as well as size and speed to a front seven that desperately needed it

 

 

Grading a draft because they didn't fill 'perceived' needs is foolish. If you want to play with grades then at least grade the quality of the players and their body of work in college.

 

What happens if the Bills end up with one of the LTs that everyone is buzzing about? That does not change the quality of the players drafted in some way. You may want to grade the 'offseason' instead. It's a fallacy that not drafting a certain player is a negative.

 

What they said.

[robertpaul49]

They were definitely trying to draft small-school players with character. I think that is why they selected Troup so high. I think there are cases where a team can select a player too high. The player takes the money and feels he should be treated special, i.e. Mike Williams. I think Troup is the opposite. I think he is the kind of guy who appreciates being selected and wants to prove the coaches right. I think this is a big reason that the Bills went with small school players. The Bills are in better shape than last year; however, they still need help at offensive tackle.

[Orton's Arm]

You assume that starters and pro bowlers can only be had in the first two rounds.

 

PTR

I'm not sure if your comment was addressed to me or to someone else, but I'll respond to it here. Some positions--notably LT, RDE, shutdown CB and, above all, QB--are difficult to address outside of the first round. I recall reading an article which indicated that, of the guys playing LT at a high level, nearly all were taken in the first round. Jason Peters stories will happen on occasion, but they are typically rare occasions.

 

The quarterback position is like that, except even more so. Of the quarterbacks playing at a high level, how many were selected in rounds 4 - 7, or were initially signed as undrafted free agents? Tom Brady comes to mind (6th round pick). But that was ten years ago now. Since then, Tony Romo has emerged as a high level QB who'd initially not been drafted. But that's only two players over the last ten years.

 

Even in rounds 2 - 3, your odds of getting a good quarterback are relatively slim. Nine years ago, the Chargers took Drew Brees with the first pick of the second round (32nd overall). More recently, the Dolphins took the solid but unspectacular Chad Henne in the second round. I'm probably forgetting someone here, but the bottom line is that your odds of getting a good quarterback in the second or third rounds are relatively slim.

 

Top-flight QBs are typically very scarce outside the first round. It is normally very difficult (but not impossible) for a team to win a Super Bowl without a first-rate QB. It can be done if you have a Ravens of 2000 defense, a Jon Ogden-style offensive line, and a 2000 yard rusher/Jamal Lewis at RB. But achieving all that is a more difficult proposition than finding a top-flight QB.

 

Given the above, it seems reasonable to anticipate that the Bills will need to use a first round pick on the QB position if they want a top-flight QB. Sure, I'd love it if someone like Brohm emerged from the present quarterback competition, and proved to be the next Jim Kelly. But the odds of that actually happening are slender. Exactly the same argument could be made, though to a lesser degree, about the hole at LT.

 

On the other hand, it's quite possible--perhaps even likely--that some of the linebackers and other players the Bills took with their later picks will turn into solid starters.

[Bflojohn]

What makes me antzy is the idea that Torrel Troup can simply ride into town and light it up!! Ted Washington, you'll remember had stops in San Francisco and Denver before rounding into a stout NT. This is a tough position to play, so Bills fans PLEASE have patience for this young guy before declaring him a bust.