Longball's Statistical Analysis of Draft

[Astrobot]

From Longball at DraftTek:

 

Here is some quantitative data based on the Big Board rankings.

I have posted every draft selection on the Big Board spreadsheet and compared the ranking to the draft position.

 

Due to the fact that teams had different numbers of choices, I took the arithmetic mean of the net differences to arrive at a grading system – those results are as follows:

 

1. Saints +23.3 (BEST VALUE)

2. Packers +19.4

3. Browns +8.5

4. Seahawks +6.2

5. Bears +4

6. Cowboys -1.2

7. Eagles -1.8

8. Bills – 6.3

9. Ravens -6.6

10. Chargers -8.5

11. Jets -10.0

12. Panthers -10.9

13. Broncos -15.2

14. Giants -19.7

15. Patriots -28.4

16. Buccaneers -39.9

17. Dolphins -44.5

18. Steelers -49.4

19. 49’ers -52.5

20. Raiders -58.7

21. Texans -61.1

22. Falcons -63.1

23. Cardinals -67.4

24. Chiefs -72.4

25. Titans -76.0

26. Bengals -79.4

27. Vikings -79.4

28. Lions -86.8

29. Redskins -88.3

30. Rams -90.0

31. Colts -115.6

32. Jaguars -126.7 (GREATEST REACH)

 

Then, I started talking to myself – “Self” I said, “What if teams with more picks took a flyer on a player?” So, maybe I should eliminate the difference on the 7th round picks; however, there were teams that drafted for value in the 7th round, so that would not be fair. Therefore, I decided to eliminate the largest reach for each team – that would allow every team one “flyer” and here are the results of that calculation:

 

1. Packers +36.8 (GREATEST VALUE)

2. Saints +29.2

3. Panthers +23.6

4. Browns +20.6

5. Chargers +17.6

6. Seahawks +16.4

7. Eagles +14.9

8. 49’ers +10.0

9. Jets +8.3

10. Cowboys +4.6

11. Ravens +2.0

12. Bears +1.3

13. Broncos -0.5

14. Bills -1.6

15. Lions -8.4

16. Bengals -9.0

17. Giants -12.5

18. Patriots -12.5

19. Dolphins -16.7

20. Buccaneers -16.8

21. Raiders -18.6

22. Steelers -31.1

23. Jaguars -33.6

24. Cardinals -36.6

25. Texans -37.0

26. Redskins -49.2

27. Chiefs -49.5

28. Falcons -50.3

29. Titans -50.5

30. Vikings -51.9

31. Rams -64.7

32. Colts -88.9 (GREATEST REACH)

[silvermike]

Interesting that the minuses outweigh the plusses - I guess that makes sense because it would only break even if only the top 255 players are selected.

 

 

Good numbers.

[Astrobot]

Interesting that the minuses outweigh the plusses - I guess that makes sense because it would only break even if only the top 255 players are selected.

 

 

Good numbers.

Our big board had over 700 names on it to fill 255 spaces. That said, two players selected yesterday weren't on our list, one going to Cincinnati and a punter, se we did well at identifying players.

 

The bottom line is that the Bills' average reach over the 7 rounds was less than 26 other teams, at least when compared to our Big Board, and ours is a synthesis of four other big boards and the input of several guys.