Typical TBD Guy Posted November 29, 2004 Posted November 29, 2004 Assuming our beloved Bills win all 5 remaining games - and our chances drop to virtually 0% if we don't do so (thanks, in large part, to our horrible record vs. AFC opponents) - here's what we need to make the playoffs: 4 of these 5 scenarios need to happen for the #6 seed; all 5 need to happen for the #5 seed: 1. Texans lose at least 1 game (extremely likely, given that they play the Jets away, the Colts at home, and the Jaguars away). 2. Jaguars lose at least 2 games (very likely, given that they play the Packers away and the Steelers at home). 3. Broncos lose at least 3 games (not likely, unless they can lose to the Chiefs in KC). 4. Ravens lose at least 3 games (I'd say not likely, unless they can lose to the Bengals at home). 5. Jets either lose at least 4 games or they lose all 3 remaining AFC games (seems unlikely until you take a closer look at their brutal remaining schedule and factor in the Pennington injury along with the Jets' overrated record against many of the easy teams that the Bills have yet to play). Week by week breakdown of who Bills fans need to root for: (Note: this is obviously subject to change if either the Steelers or Colts or Chargers decide to have a complete meltdown): (Another note: I added all Steelers and Patriots games in this list because a lot of you want the Steelers to be resting their starters by week 17. In my opinion, who cares? If the Bills are still in the playoff race by the final game - at home, with a 6 game winning streak - the Steelers are the ones who should be the underdogs... But anyway, we'd need the Steelers rather than the Pats to be on top by week 17 because the Steelers play 3 teams that we need to lose, while the Pats only play 1.) WEEK 13: Bills over Dolphins Texans over Jets Chargers over Broncos Bengals over Ravens Steelers over Jaguars Browns over Patriots WEEK 14: Bills over Browns Colts over Texans Dolphins over Broncos Giants over Ravens Bears over Jaguars Steelers over Jets Bengals over Patriots WEEK 15: Bills over Bengals Bears over Texans Packers over Jaguars Chiefs over Broncos Colts over Ravens Seahawks over Jets Steelers over Giants Dolphins over Patriots WEEK 16: Bills over 49ers Titans over Broncos Texans over Jaguars (except in the possible situation that both teams are 8-6 at this point) Steelers over Ravens Patriots over Jets WEEK 17: Bills over Steelers Colts over Broncos Browns over Texans Raiders over Jaguars Rams over Jets Dolphins over Ravens 49ers over Patriots P.S.: If you are tempted to post "let's take it one game at a time" or "sorry Kelso but the playoff aren't going to happen," DON'T.
Fezmid Posted November 29, 2004 Posted November 29, 2004 I, for one, appreciate the research. As I said 4 weeks ago, why give up hope if we're still mathematically alive? CW
flomoe Posted November 29, 2004 Posted November 29, 2004 Assuming our beloved Bills win all 5 remaining games - and our chances drop to virtually 0% if we don't do so (thanks, in large part, to our horrible record vs. AFC opponents) - here's what we need to make the playoffs: 4 of these 5 scenarios need to happen for the #6 seed; all 5 need to happen for the #5 seed: 1. Texans lose at least 1 game (extremely likely, given that they play the Jets away, the Colts at home, and the Jaguars away). 2. Jaguars lose at least 2 games (very likely, given that they play the Packers away and the Steelers at home). 3. Broncos lose at least 3 games (not likely, unless they can lose to the Chiefs in KC). 4. Ravens lose at least 3 games (I'd say not likely, unless they can lose to the Bengals at home). 5. Jets either lose at least 4 games or they lose all 3 remaining AFC games (seems unlikely until you take a closer look at their brutal remaining schedule and factor in the Pennington injury along with the Jets' overrated record against many of the easy teams that the Bills have yet to play). Week by week breakdown of who Bills fans need to root for: (Note: this is obviously subject to change if either the Steelers or Colts or Chargers decide to have a complete meltdown): (Another note: I added all Steelers and Patriots games in this list because a lot of you want the Steelers to be resting their starters by week 17. In my opinion, who cares? If the Bills are still in the playoff race by the final game - at home, with a 6 game winning streak - the Steelers are the ones who should be the underdogs... But anyway, we'd need the Steelers rather than the Pats to be on top by week 17 because the Steelers play 3 teams that we need to lose, while the Pats only play 1.) WEEK 13: Bills over Dolphins Texans over Jets Chargers over Broncos Bengals over Ravens Steelers over Jaguars Browns over Patriots WEEK 14: Bills over Browns Colts over Texans Dolphins over Broncos Giants over Ravens Bears over Jaguars Steelers over Jets Bengals over Patriots WEEK 15: Bills over Bengals Bears over Texans Packers over Jaguars Chiefs over Broncos Colts over Ravens Seahawks over Jets Steelers over Giants Dolphins over Patriots WEEK 16: Bills over 49ers Titans over Broncos Texans over Jaguars (except in the possible situation that both teams are 8-6 at this point) Steelers over Ravens Patriots over Jets WEEK 17: Bills over Steelers Colts over Broncos Browns over Texans Raiders over Jaguars Rams over Jets Dolphins over Ravens 49ers over Patriots P.S.: If you are tempted to post "let's take it one game at a time" or "sorry Kelso but the playoff aren't going to happen," DON'T. 138003[/snapback] Whewwww. Thanks for the research. The Bills really need some luck on their side for this but you never know. Just win and let the rest take care of itself, there's no other way to look at it.
Like A Mofo Posted November 29, 2004 Posted November 29, 2004 Kelso, that is one heck of a 1000th post!!!!!!!!!!!
BillsGuyInMalta Posted November 29, 2004 Posted November 29, 2004 Thats some mighty fine work you just did Kelso! Here...you get a cookie and a pat on the back.
gantrules Posted November 29, 2004 Posted November 29, 2004 Wow.....imagine what we did prior to the invention of the internet..
JinVA Posted November 29, 2004 Posted November 29, 2004 That list will come in mighty handy for me over the next few weeks, and the effort is appreciated. However, don't you think we should just take it one week at a time, I mean we have zero chance of making the playoffs.
zow2 Posted November 29, 2004 Posted November 29, 2004 Nice that we can even have this "scenario" discussion. Didn't seem possible after the Jets away game.
_BiB_ Posted November 29, 2004 Posted November 29, 2004 Wow.....imagine what we did prior to the invention of the internet.. 138070[/snapback] Once upon a time there were things called libraries. They were BIG buildings filled with a thing called books. (Books are things made out of paper that have lots of writing on them like you can find here, big books with floppy covers were called "magazines"). People tired of "Books" because many did not have pictures. (BTW, good post)
BRH Posted November 29, 2004 Posted November 29, 2004 Outstanding post. I trust you checked and re-checked everything because if you got even one small thing wrong, it's going to fug up the whole post and a lot of people are going to be very upset when they find out. (But Kelso said...!)
nodnarb Posted November 29, 2004 Posted November 29, 2004 well thangieu mr. kelso. i find your efforts helpful and would like to subscribe to your newsletter.
Rubes Posted November 29, 2004 Posted November 29, 2004 That post rocked. Hopefully, it will come in handy later on.
DeeRay Posted November 29, 2004 Posted November 29, 2004 Mr. Kelso... please report back to us next Monday.
Typical TBD Guy Posted November 29, 2004 Author Posted November 29, 2004 Thanks for all the compliments. I wanted to do something special for my "look-at-me" celebratory 1,000th post rather than explain how Bledsoe still sucks or how Vincent had his knee replaced with a vagina. Here are a few additions to my week-by-week printable schedule, accounting for the possibilities that the Colts, Chargers, and Steelers could each collapse (an exclamation mark means pay very close attention to the outcome of that game; that outcome will have an immediate effect on the mathematical probability of the Bills' playoff chances, a number too small to bother computing at this time...): WEEK 13: Bills over Dolphins !!! Chargers over Broncos ! Bengals over Ravens ! Texans over Jets ! Steelers over Jaguars ! Browns over Patriots Titans over Colts WEEK 14: Bills over Browns !!! Dolphins over Broncos ! Giants over Ravens ! Steelers over Jets ! Bears over Jaguars ! Colts over Texans **- unless Texans lose to Jets in Week 13 Bengals over Patriots Bucs over Chargers WEEK 15: Bills over Bengals !!! Packers over Jaguars ! Seahawks over Jets ! Chiefs over Broncos ! Colts vs. Ravens ! **- depends on AFC South and North Division Races Steelers over Giants Dolphins over Patriots Browns over Chargers Bears over Texans WEEK 16: Bills over 49ers !!! Titans over Broncos ! Patriots over Jets ! Texans over Jaguars ! **- unless both teams are 8-6 at this point Steelers over Ravens ! **- unless both teams are 10-4 at this point Colts vs. Chargers **- depends on AFC South and West Division Races WEEK 17: Bills over Steelers !!! Dolphins over Ravens ! Rams over Jets ! Raiders over Jaguars ! Colts vs. Broncos ! **- depends on AFC South and West Division Races 49ers over Patriots Browns over Texans Chiefs over Chargers I'll continue updating this thread as long as the Bills are still mathematically alive in the playoff race.
hoser12 Posted November 30, 2004 Posted November 30, 2004 Great Post. Never say die. Ravens O blows and Denver started their collapse last night in the snow. THeir RB situation is not good and remember Plummer has only made the playoffs 1 time in his career so this is no shoo-in. I can see the JETS choking the chicken with that tough schedule!!! Good work.
TheMadCap Posted November 30, 2004 Posted November 30, 2004 Stranger things have happened. I once saw a former 7-0 team miss the playoffs on the last play of the game to the Cardinals!
Guest Troy Vincent Posted November 30, 2004 Posted November 30, 2004 I wanted to do something special for my "look-at-me" celebratory 1,000th post rather than explain how Bledsoe still sucks or how Vincent had his knee replaced with a vagina. 138464[/snapback] With a pu$$y for a knee, I'm still 10X the player you ever were.
Alaska Darin Posted November 30, 2004 Posted November 30, 2004 With a pu$$y for a knee, I'm still 10X the player you ever were. 138712[/snapback]
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