JDG Posted November 29, 2004 Posted November 29, 2004 It is amazing to think that if Green Bay beats St. Louis at home next week that the Seahawks will be all alone in first place of the NFC West at 6-5 and that St. Louis and the NY Giants will be tied for the second wildcard slot at 5-6…. not coincidentally the Bills' record as well. The good news for the Bills is that our next four opponents are @Miami, @San Francisco, Cleveland, and @Cincinnati, all of whom have 5 wins or less so far this year. Finish it up with a home game against the Steelers, and suddenly 10-6 isn't outside the realm of reasonable possibility. The bad news for the Bills is that we play in the AFC, not the NFC West (which we could win handily.) Standing in the way of the Bills are: NY Jets 8-3 Baltimore 7-4 Denver 7-4 Jacksonville 6-5 Houston 5-6 Cincinnati 5-6 Cincinnati has the tiebreaker on us today, but if the Bills win out, we will hang another loss on the Bengals, and so we won't have to worry about them. Houston is 5-6 and plays @Jets, Indy, @Chicago, @Jax, and Cleveland, and shouldn't finish 10-6. Assuming that the above two happen, the Bills would need to win out, and get three of the following four scenarios to make the playoffs…. Jacksonville, unfortunately, got a game up on us *and* the tiebreaker in miraculous fashion back in Week 1. Thus, the Bills will need the Jags to go 3-2 or worse among Pitt, Chicago, @Green Bay, Houston, and @Oakland. Denver, meanwhile, assuming that San Diego wins next week and goes on to win the division, will also have the tiebreaker on us by virtue of having lost to Atlanta. So, the Broncos would need to go 2-3 or worse among @San Diego, Miami, @KC, @Tenn, and Indianapolis. Baltimore also has the tiebreaker on us, so we need them to go 2-3 or worse among Cincinnati, NY Giants, @Indy, @Pitt, and Miami. Lastly, the NY Jets need to lose to Houston, @Pitt, and New England for the Bills to catch them. The games vs. Seattle and @St. Louis will probably be irrelevant for our purposes due to the way the tiebreakers work. As Mike and the Mechanics would say, "All I Need is a Miracle….." JDG
Guest Guest Posted November 29, 2004 Posted November 29, 2004 It looks as though New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis and San Diego will will their respective divisions. That leaves two wild card berths out of the following teams. Baltimore, New York Jets, Denver Jacksonville and the Bills. The Bills can run the table and finish 10-6 and their conference record would be 6-6. Here is the scenario. The Jaguars would need to lose two of their remainig 5 games: Pittsbuugh, Chicago, at Green Bay, Houston at Oakland - I think they will win 3 of 5 and finish at 9-7 The Broncos would also need to finish no better then 9-7 at San Diego, Miami, at Kansas City, at Tennessee, Indianapolis - I think they go at best 2-3, making their final record 9-7 Baltimore is 7-4 and holds the tie-breaker against the Bills: Cincinnati, New York Giants, at Indianapolis, at Pittsburgh, Miami - I see them winning 3 of their last 5 to finish at 10-6. We need to root hard for the Bengals next week. New York Jets are 8-3, but have a really tough finishing schedule Houston, at Pittsburgh, Seattle, New England, at St. Louis I see the Jets being defeated by Pittsburgh, New England & St. Louis, The games against Houston & Seattle are very hard. If the Jets win 2 of the 5 games, they also end up 10-6, but the problem is that the Jets AFC Conference record would be 7-5 meaning that Baltimore and the NY Jets would by the 5th and 6th seeds. The Bills would need to finish at 10-6 and hope that either Cincinnati beats the Ravens this Sunday, or the Jets blow a home game against the Texans this Sunday or against Seattle on December 19th. This is the way to the playoffs for the Bills. It is amazing to think that if Green Bay beats St. Louis at home next week that the Seahawks will be all alone in first place of the NFC West at 6-5 and that St. Louis and the NY Giants will be tied for the second wildcard slot at 5-6…. not coincidentally the Bills' record as well. The good news for the Bills is that our next four opponents are @Miami, @San Francisco, Cleveland, and @Cincinnati, all of whom have 5 wins or less so far this year. Finish it up with a home game against the Steelers, and suddenly 10-6 isn't outside the realm of reasonable possibility. The bad news for the Bills is that we play in the AFC, not the NFC West (which we could win handily.) Standing in the way of the Bills are: NY Jets 8-3 Baltimore 7-4 Denver 7-4 Jacksonville 6-5 Houston 5-6 Cincinnati 5-6 Cincinnati has the tiebreaker on us today, but if the Bills win out, we will hang another loss on the Bengals, and so we won't have to worry about them. Houston is 5-6 and plays @Jets, Indy, @Chicago, @Jax, and Cleveland, and shouldn't finish 10-6. Assuming that the above two happen, the Bills would need to win out, and get three of the following four scenarios to make the playoffs…. Jacksonville, unfortunately, got a game up on us *and* the tiebreaker in miraculous fashion back in Week 1. Thus, the Bills will need the Jags to go 3-2 or worse among Pitt, Chicago, @Green Bay, Houston, and @Oakland. Denver, meanwhile, assuming that San Diego wins next week and goes on to win the division, will also have the tiebreaker on us by virtue of having lost to Atlanta. So, the Broncos would need to go 2-3 or worse among @San Diego, Miami, @KC, @Tenn, and Indianapolis. Baltimore also has the tiebreaker on us, so we need them to go 2-3 or worse among Cincinnati, NY Giants, @Indy, @Pitt, and Miami. Lastly, the NY Jets need to lose to Houston, @Pitt, and New England for the Bills to catch them. The games vs. Seattle and @St. Louis will probably be irrelevant for our purposes due to the way the tiebreakers work. As Mike and the Mechanics would say, "All I Need is a Miracle….." JDG 137782[/snapback]
jester43 Posted November 29, 2004 Posted November 29, 2004 damn...it's still too crazy to think about...i vote we just go beat on the fish next week, and bank on blind faith that 10-6 is good enough 90% of the time.
nick in* england Posted November 29, 2004 Posted November 29, 2004 damn...it's still too crazy to think about...i vote we just go beat on the fish next week, and bank on blind faith that 10-6 is good enough 90% of the time. 137848[/snapback] mix in some beer with that recipe and you sir have a deal!
ch19079 Posted November 29, 2004 Posted November 29, 2004 yeah, just beat the fish. kill there QB. break there spirit. humiliate them and make them beg for ricky to come back. the only thing on my christmas list.
jester43 Posted November 29, 2004 Posted November 29, 2004 that's all i did this weekend...i think that's why the multitude of scenarios is making my head spin...
BB2004 Posted November 29, 2004 Posted November 29, 2004 It is amazing to think that if Green Bay beats St. Louis at home next week that the Seahawks will be all alone in first place of the NFC West at 6-5 and that St. Louis and the NY Giants will be tied for the second wildcard slot at 5-6…. not coincidentally the Bills' record as well. The good news for the Bills is that our next four opponents are @Miami, @San Francisco, Cleveland, and @Cincinnati, all of whom have 5 wins or less so far this year. Finish it up with a home game against the Steelers, and suddenly 10-6 isn't outside the realm of reasonable possibility. The bad news for the Bills is that we play in the AFC, not the NFC West (which we could win handily.) Standing in the way of the Bills are: NY Jets 8-3 Baltimore 7-4 Denver 7-4 Jacksonville 6-5 Houston 5-6 Cincinnati 5-6 Cincinnati has the tiebreaker on us today, but if the Bills win out, we will hang another loss on the Bengals, and so we won't have to worry about them. Houston is 5-6 and plays @Jets, Indy, @Chicago, @Jax, and Cleveland, and shouldn't finish 10-6. Assuming that the above two happen, the Bills would need to win out, and get three of the following four scenarios to make the playoffs…. Jacksonville, unfortunately, got a game up on us *and* the tiebreaker in miraculous fashion back in Week 1. Thus, the Bills will need the Jags to go 3-2 or worse among Pitt, Chicago, @Green Bay, Houston, and @Oakland. Denver, meanwhile, assuming that San Diego wins next week and goes on to win the division, will also have the tiebreaker on us by virtue of having lost to Atlanta. So, the Broncos would need to go 2-3 or worse among @San Diego, Miami, @KC, @Tenn, and Indianapolis. Baltimore also has the tiebreaker on us, so we need them to go 2-3 or worse among Cincinnati, NY Giants, @Indy, @Pitt, and Miami. Lastly, the NY Jets need to lose to Houston, @Pitt, and New England for the Bills to catch them. The games vs. Seattle and @St. Louis will probably be irrelevant for our purposes due to the way the tiebreakers work. As Mike and the Mechanics would say, "All I Need is a Miracle….." JDG 137782[/snapback] Lets just worry about winning our games that we have. If we can win the rest of the games, that's the only way we have a chance. One game at a time. If for some reason we end up 9-6 going into the last game against Pittsburgh, that might be fortunate for us becuase the Steelers might have nothing to play for.
JDG Posted November 29, 2004 Author Posted November 29, 2004 that's all i did this weekend...i think that's why the multitude of scenarios is making my head spin... 137864[/snapback] Well, I think its pretty simple: 1) Bills win out 2) Houston loses once. 3) Catch 3 out of 4 of Jax, Balt, Denver, and the NY Jets. I think we have a great shot at catching Jax and Denver... but Baltimore and the Jets seem more difficult. And for the record, I actually think we'll finish 9-7, which makes all this moot, since we simply won't make the playoffs at 9-7 this year.... but it will be still fun to watch. JDG
JimBob2232 Posted November 29, 2004 Posted November 29, 2004 10-6 and no playoffs would be okay in my book after the way we started and ended. I would rather go out winning 6 in a row than go out geting blown out in indy.
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