A look at the numbers....again

[Mickey]

I posted last week some numbers suggesting that it was less than impossible for Buffalo to make the playoffs. It is still a long, long shot but just about everything we needed to happen this past weekend to improve our chances actually happened with the exception of the Jets getting upset in Arizona.

 

Remember that all division winners get in and two wild cards. Lets start with the presumption that NE, Pitt and Indy are going to win their divisions. The last division in the AFC is up for grabs between SD and Denver. Both were are 7-3 going into the weekend. For us it doesn't matter who wins the division, just that the second place team start to lose some games in a hurry. SD so we needed Denver to lose and thanks to that blocked kick last night in the snow, Oakland beat them. For now anyway, the Wild Card candidate from that division is Denver at 7-4.

 

Along with Denver there is Baltimore, now 7-4 due to its loss to NE yesterday. J'Ville which is at 6-5 following their loss to Minnesota. Then there is the Jets at 8-3 after their close win against the Cardinals. Is it possible for us to get in?

 

Well, lets start with J'ville. We are only one game back from them and they have games remaining against Pitt (10-1), Chicago (4-7), GB which is away (6-4), Houston (5-6) and away at Oak. (4-7). Certainly the Pitt and GB games will be tough. Two losses and the best they finish is 9-7. The question is, can we finish 10-6? It isn't likely but the schedule isn' t that bad. They are away at Miami (2-9), Cinn (5-6) and SF (1-10) with home dates against Cleveland (3-8) and Pitt (10-1). The Steelers game is the last of the season and so might not be of much interest for them. Perhaps they will be resting their starters. The Bengals on the road is the toughest of that group until you get to the Steelers. It is certainly not impossible for us to go 10-6.

 

Denver is at 7-4 with games left at SD (8-3), Ten (4-7) and KC (3-8). They are also at home against Indy (8-3). With two 8-3 teams on the schedule, it is not impossible for them to finish with at least two more losses. Any slip up against the others and they are 9-7 at best.

 

As for Baltimore, they are 7-4 with away games at Indy and Pitt to go as well as games against the Giants and the Bengals, two middle of the road teams that are dangerous. I think the Ravens are looking at two losses minimum over the rest of the season. If anything weird happens, they could slip up against the Giants or Bengals. That would make them 9-7 at best.

 

The Jets at 8-3 have an away game at Pitt and a home games against NE still on the schedule. They easily could lose those and also have to play Houston (5-6), Seattle (6-5) and St. Louis (5-5). Essentially they are playing two of the best in the league and then three against aspiring teams with solid records. Again, it wouldn't take much for them to lose at least one of those games.

 

In short it is a long shot that just got a tiny bit shorter.

[MelissaInPhilly]

Thanks for the analysis. I'll keep my fingers crossed!

[seq004]

I posted last week some numbers suggesting that it was less than impossible for Buffalo to make the playoffs.  It is still a long, long shot but just about everything we needed to happen this past weekend to improve our chances actually happened with the exception of the Jets getting upset in Arizona.

 

Remember that all division winners get in and two wild cards.  Lets start with the presumption that NE, Pitt and Indy are going to win their divisions.  The last division in the AFC is up for grabs between SD and Denver.  Both were are 7-3 going into the weekend.  For us it doesn't matter who wins the division, just that the second place team start to lose some games in a hurry.  SD so we needed Denver to lose and thanks to that  blocked kick last night in the snow, Oakland beat them.  For now anyway, the Wild Card candidate from that division is Denver at 7-4.

 

Along with Denver there is Baltimore, now 7-4 due to its loss to NE yesterday.  J'Ville which is at 6-5 following their loss to Minnesota.  Then there is the Jets at 8-3 after their close win against the Cardinals.  Is it possible for us to get in?

 

Well, lets start with J'ville.  We are only one game back from them and they have games remaining against Pitt (10-1), Chicago (4-7), GB which is away (6-4), Houston (5-6) and away at Oak. (4-7).  Certainly the Pitt and GB games will be tough.  Two losses and the best they finish is 9-7.  The question is, can we finish 10-6?  It isn't likely but the schedule isn' t that bad.  They are away at Miami (2-9), Cinn (5-6) and SF (1-10) with home dates against Cleveland (3-8) and Pitt (10-1).  The Steelers game is the last of the season and so might not be of much interest for them. Perhaps they will be resting their starters.  The Bengals on the road is the toughest of that group until you get to the Steelers.  It is certainly not impossible for us to go 10-6.

 

Denver is at 7-4 with games left at SD (8-3), Ten (4-7) and KC (3-8).  They are also at home against Indy (8-3).  With two 8-3 teams on the schedule, it is not impossible for them to finish with at least two more losses.  Any slip up against the others and they are 9-7 at best.

 

As for Baltimore, they are 7-4 with away games at Indy and Pitt to go as well as games against the Giants and the Bengals, two middle of the road teams that are dangerous.  I think the Ravens are looking at two losses minimum over the rest of the season.  If anything weird happens, they could slip up against the Giants or Bengals.  That would make them 9-7 at best.

 

The Jets at 8-3 have an away game at Pitt and a home games against NE still on the schedule.  They easily could lose those and also have to play Houston (5-6), Seattle (6-5) and St. Louis (5-5).  Essentially they are playing two of the best in the league and then three against aspiring teams with solid records.  Again, it wouldn't take much for them to lose at least one of those games.

 

In short it is a long shot that just got a tiny bit shorter.

137423[/snapback]

I think the toughest game out of our remaining schedule is at Cinncy. I think we'll beat Pittsburgh at home no matter what.

[GG]

Keep in mind that Bills aren't likely to win any tie break scenarios, thus they'll have to win the wild card outright - ie run the table to 10-6, and hope that Balt, Jax & Denver are 9-7

[Mickey]

Keep in mind that Bills aren't likely to win any tie break scenarios, thus they'll have to win the wild card outright - ie run the table to 10-6, and hope that Balt, Jax & Denver are 9-7

137455[/snapback]

They could concevably win a tie breaker against the Jets or Broncos. We need the Jets to lose three to tie them anyway. They are 6-3 in the conference and we are 2-6. However, their two toughest games are Pitt and NE, both AFC games. If they lose those two and for us to have any shot at being tied with them they would, they would be at 6-5 in the AFC. We would need them to lost to Houston this coming Sunday to knock them back to 6-6 where we would likely finish if we win out. We would be tied in record, head to head, division record and conf. record. Actually, the record in common games is before conference record in the tie breaker rules for division teams that are tied which is what you use if the wild card teams that are tied are in the same division.

 

Common games include the division games which would be tied at 3-3 each. You have to go to the other common games: Cinn, SF, Balt, Clev., Az, Pitt, Seattle and St. Louis. The Jets are 4-1 against those teams with 3 to go against Pitt, Seattle and St. Louis. We are 3-1 with 4 to go against Cleve, SF, Cinn and Pitt. Our schedule in that sense is a little easier than theirs. If we are tied there, then you go to the conference schedule as outlined above which could be tied as well if they lose to Houston. The next tie breaker is strength of victory which is the winning percentage of the teams you have beat. For now, Buffalo has the edge there .463 to .341 A Jets loss to the Steelers and a win for us in the last game against them would likely clinch us this particular tie breaker.

 

It is a long way to go but we could actually win a tie breaker against the Jets.

 

As for Denver, it is even harder. They have all conference games left and are 4-3 now compared to our 2-6. We have to win out to have any shot at all and if we do, we would be 6-6 in the conference. With the Steelers and Colts among their AFC games left, the Broncos could easily lose at least two more AFC games. One slip against anyone else and we are tied in the conference. For that to happen though, Denver would lose three games of the last five leaving them at 9-7 and if we win out, we would be 10-6 and not tied with them anyway.

 

Bottom line, we need Houston to upend the Jets, Denver to lose to SD, Cinn to beat Baltimore and J'ville to lose to the Steelers. Of course, we must win at Miami. A loss there and it is all over. If you are watching the scores come in next week, that is what you need to root for.