I Rarely Post, But Questions about '10 and '11 Draft

[sirebors]

Ok, I know there's a million posts concerning who the Bills should take, how good Jimmy Clausen really is, and how good our beloved Bills will actually be in the future with the new coaching staff and GM. My questions are rather simple.

 

" How good/bad will the Bills be this year?"

 

The reason I'm asking is I am a huge Jake Locker fan. What teams in the league will definitely be worse than us? Alot of people have huge aspirations that the Bills will be competitive this year. I for one seriously doubt it, especially with how our divison rivals are steadily improving. At first I was not that happy with the new coach or GM, but have since warmed to them. I want them to succeed. But I don't know if that is possible in the short term, especially with Ralph Wilson as the owner.

 

After watching the combine my immediate choice for the Bills was Trent Williams. Watching him move he just seemed like a tremendous athlete to me. Very similar to what I observed from Ryan Kalil 3 years previous. The only problem was the rest of the league saw the same thing, and he rapidly rose up the draft boards. He won't be available when we pick. And if Washington gets him I will be sick about it. I didn't want McNabb either. I didn't want a short term solution to our most glaring need. But I know that because of the trade Washington will now take a tackle.

 

Since then there has been talk of Jimmy Clausen and Tim Tebow. I am not a Tebow fan at all. Sure he is competitive, had good stats, and is a proven winner, but to expect someone to completely change their throwing motion, and their game, is ludicrous to me. He should've changed it years ago, not a month before the draft. I don't want a project. I don't want to take a chance and hope for the best. Aaron Maybin was a project and we passed on much better players last year. And we all know how that turned out. ( see Orakpo, Cushing, Oher, and Matthews )

 

At first I wasn't a huge Jimmy Clausen fan either, but after learning more and watching some of his games, I would not be disappointed with this pick. My only real concern of all of his supposed negatives is his hand size and the fact that he does seem to float, and not fire alot of his passes. These both could be huge negatives in the Bills stadium. But I do think he will be a fine NFL quarterback. Which leads to my second question...

 

"Is there any chance at all we could we get Jake Locker next year?" or even Andrew Luck or Ryan Mallett?

I believe Locker is head and shoulders above anyone who is coming out this year. I like Mallet as well, but admittedly don't know anything about Andrew Luck, but am not inclined to taking another Stanford QB.

 

3rd/4th/5th Questions:

"How do these 2011 Quarterbacks compare to Clausen? Would we be better off drafting another position this year and getting a 2011 QB? Could we possibly finish dead last and get Locker?"

 

I know there are alot of Bills faithful out there that still think we will be competitive this year and the playoffs may be in reach. How we were so close to winning numerous games last year. How bad our coach was at making gameday decisions. How bad our quarterback was. All of these things are true and one would think these facts should definitely mean we improve. I for one think the exact opposite. I think we finish worse than last year. As I said before I'd love to succeed, to win the Super Bowl, but while trying to be an impartial observer I don't think it's possible. We have changed coaching staffs, changed the offensive playbook, changed the defensive formation, possibly changed our quarterback. We definitely need time to learn and to aquire the players needed to be competitive.

 

I am including the previously posted Walter Football 2011 mock draft which has us finishing 8th worst where Ryan Mallett would be available. I say we finish worse. Any thoughts, criticisms are welcome.

 

http://walterfootball.com/draft2011.php

[sirebors]

Sorry,

 

Question 6:

 

"Are we better off taking a tackle, linebacker, nose tackle early this year and quarterback next year, or vice versa."

[ajzepp]

I saw Mallet play a few times down here in SEC land, and I've never been all that impressed. The guy doesn't seem to have the leadership intangibles that allow you to have confidence that he's going to take the team on his shoulders and lead you to a win. I had the same issue with Matt Stafford. Nice arm, smart kid, but not clutch. I'd rather wait a few years and draft Gale Gilbert'skid....now that kid had some swagger!!

[Ghost of Rob Johnson]

You play to win the game.

 

I can see developing a draft strategy based on giving Trent another chance or using Brohm as a fall back. If neither pans out you can draft your QB next year. But going into a season and developing a draft strategy for this year with the idea that your team is so bad you will be able to get the top QB or any position next year is asinine. If you feel you need a QB to be successful this year, then you get a QB.

[murra]

Part of me wants to know the answer to question number 7:

 

Do all sports teams have fans that are so legitimately desperate for wins, that they will sacrifice entire seasons before they're even played?

[Hazed and Amuzed]

Ya'll play nice, sirebors says they don't post a lot.

[sirebors]

Part of me wants to know the answer to question number 7:

 

Do all sports teams have fans that are so legitimately desperate for wins, that they will sacrifice entire seasons before they're even played?

 

I'm not desperate at all for wins, nor do I wish to sacrifice the entire season before it's played. My question is simple. How good will the bills be? And are the quarterbacks this year better or worse than the ones next year? Is it a better choice to draft a tackle, a linebacker, or a nose guard who may be rated higher than to reach for a quarterback who will probably be running for his life and get killed this year because there are no tackles on the team. It is difficult to learn, progress, or get better laying on your back.

 

 

As far as the post:

You play to win the game.

 

I can see developing a draft strategy based on giving Trent another chance or using Brohm as a fall back. If neither pans out you can draft your QB next year. But going into a season and developing a draft strategy for this year with the idea that your team is so bad you will be able to get the top QB or any position next year is asinine. If you feel you need a QB to be successful this year, then you get a QB.

 

 

I'm not planning the Bills draft at all. In fact I'm just sitting in my kitchen in front of my laptop. I won't be in NYC on draft day, I won't be in the Bills war room, nor will I be the one making the Bills picks. I'm not even hoping that the Bills do poorly or asking them to throw the season. In fact I want them to win. I'm asking for my own personal knowledge. What I'm asking is again simple. Will we be better or worse next year? What will our record be? Will we be in a position, no matter how unenviable to draft a franchise quarterback. The fact that you think my questions are asinine puzzles me. You feel if we need a QB to be successful this year, then you get a QB. Really? At the cost of the rest of the teams needs? Why didn't they get McNabb? He didn't want to come here? Please. Give them your first, I'm sure they would have taken it. No matter what allegiances they had. Maybe you didn't read my post. I like Clausen. I wouldn't be upset at all if they did take him. In fact I think I would actually prefer it at this point. My question was how does he compare to the QB's next year, and if not well maybe the better alternative would be to take the best player available. To develop a tackle this year, or a nose guard, or a linebacker and maybe, just maybe take a quarterback next year. I would much rather have a Patrick Willis, or Michael Oher, or Haloti Ngata than be forced to take a QB because you deem it the only way to be successful this year. I'm not looking for arguments. I'm looking for insight.

[Thurman#1]

"Is there any chance at all we could we get Jake Locker next year?" or even Andrew Luck or Ryan Mallett? 3rd/4th/5th Questions:

"How do these 2011 Quarterbacks compare to Clausen? Would we be better off drafting another position this year and getting a 2011 QB? Could we possibly finish dead last and get Locker?"

 

 

Sorry,

 

Question 6:

 

"Are we better off taking a tackle, linebacker, nose tackle early this year and quarterback next year, or vice versa."

 

 

Questions 1 and 2: The only real answer is that there is simply no way to tell. Is there a chance? Sure. Is there a good chance? Who knows? If we avoided a QB this year and Gailey put in some kind of gimmick offense that made Trent or Brohm look better than they are, it wouldn't get us closer to a Super Bowl, but it could easily get us to mediocre, which would put us in the mid-teens in next year's draft. That would most likely have us too far away from the top two QBs next year. It's also worth remembering that last year in college, Jevan Snead looked great. Everyone thought he would perform well enough this year that he would be a top ten pick. Didn't turn out that way, and the same could happen to any of next year's "sure things."

 

Question 3: How do these QBs compare to Clausen? No way to know with accuracy, really. The scouts haven't focused the lasers on them that they do with the guys who are coming out like Clausen. The one thing you can be sure of is that next year they will all be found to have some flaws, like Clausen. Everybody has flaws, but they aren't ferreted out with such diligence in the guys who aren't coming out. But every year, the guys using a pro-style offense have a step or two up on the guys using the spread. It's worth remembering that that's where most QB failures happen, in reading defenses, going through route trees and making extremely quick and accurate decisions that the spread doesn't call for QBs to make.

 

Question 4: Would we be better off drafting another position this year and getting a 2011 QB? Well, that's the million dollar question, isn't it? Everybody's got a different opinion and we all have good reasons to back them up. IMHO, we should follow the Golden Rule of the Draft: NEVER pass up the chance to pick a franchise QB unless you already have one on the roster. But I think Clausen is a possible franchise guy. I could be wrong. IMHO, that's the decision Nix is making. If he thinks Clausen is a franchise guy, we take him if he's still there. If he doesn't think so, we don't. No question, though, that the people who support building from the lines out have a good point. A lot of the reason that the Bills have been lousy for years is that our lines have sucked. Of course, having had crappy QBs hasn't helped either.

 

Question 5: Could we possibly finish dead last and get Locker? The odds against this are extremely high. We have a core of good players, guys like Stroud, Poz, the defensive backfield, Freddy, Lee Evans, etc., and a head coach with a history of getting an awful lot out of some questionable QBs.

 

Question 6: Are we better off taking a tackle, linebacker, nose tackle early this year and quarterback next year, or vice versa?

 

 

Isn't that the same as question 4? Anyway, my answer is the same.

 

Enjoy the draft.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I don't know the answer to any of your questions, unfortunately. I don't follow college football closely and only familiarize myself with the players at this time of the year in anticipation of the draft. I have no opinion on Locker or Mallete although I was pretty impressed with Andrew Luck...but Stanford was mostly a power running team and he was a freshman with no assurance that he'll declare for the 2011 draft.

 

I'll try to lend some context via the standings.

 

These are the teams which finished with worse records than the Bills last year. Undoubtedly some of these teams will improve although it's hard to imagine a worst to first team in 2010 out of this group. All these teams have a regime in its second year except for Washington (Shanahan), Cleveland (Holmgren), and Seattle (Carroll).

 

St. Louis 1-15

Detroit 2-14

Tampa Bay 3-13

Washington 4-12

Kansas City 4-12

Cleveland 5-11

Oakland 5-11

Seattle 5-11

 

The Bills were the only team in the league to finish at 6-10.

 

IMO, there's a best-case scenario where we remain superior (record-wise) to all these teams and a worst-case scenario that five of these teams will surpass us.

 

Then there are teams which finished just ahead of us who could regress:

 

Miami 7-9

Jacksonville 7-9

Chicago 7-9

New York Giants 8-8

San Francisco 8-8

 

Lovie Smith, Jack Del Rio, and Tom Coughlin are all on the hot seat. If they don't improve their teams, they will be fired. Most people view San Francisco and Miami as ascending programs.

 

IMO, there's a worst-case that the Bills will remain behind all these teams and a best-case that they'll surpass two of them.

 

Here's a link to the final standings from last year: http://www.nfl.com/standings

 

It looks to me like all the 9-7 teams are fairly stable, competent programs who will be difficult for the Bills to surpass.

 

So it looks to me like the Bills in the best case will remain the 9th to 11th-worst team in the league and a worst case scenario where they falll as far as the 4th-worst team in the league.

 

In the worst-case scenario, the Bills probably have a shot at either Locker or Mallete or whoever comprises next year's "elite" quarterback group.

 

Hope this helps and welcome to the board.

[Thurman#1]

I don't know the answer to any of your questions, unfortunately. I don't follow college football closely and only familiarize myself with the players at this time of the year in anticipation of the draft. I have no opinion on Locker or Mallete although I was pretty impressed with Andrew Luck...but Stanford was mostly a power running team and he was a freshman with no assurance that he'll declare for the 2011 draft.

 

I'll try to lend some context via the standings.

 

These are the teams which finished with worse records than the Bills last year. Undoubtedly some of these teams will improve although it's hard to imagine a worst to first team in 2010 out of this group. All these teams have a regime in its second year except for Washington (Shanahan), Cleveland (Holmgren), and Seattle (Carroll).

 

St. Louis 1-15

Detroit 2-14

Tampa Bay 3-13

Washington 4-12

Kansas City 4-12

Cleveland 5-11

Oakland 5-11

Seattle 5-11

 

The Bills were the only team in the league to finish at 6-10.

 

IMO, there's a best-case scenario where we remain superior (record-wise) to all these teams and a worst-case scenario that five of these teams will surpass us.

 

Then there are teams which finished just ahead of us who could regress:

 

Miami 7-9

Jacksonville 7-9

Chicago 7-9

New York Giants 8-8

San Francisco 8-8

 

Lovie Smith, Jack Del Rio, and Tom Coughlin are all on the hot seat. If they don't improve their teams, they will be fired. Most people view San Francisco and Miami as ascending programs.

 

IMO, there's a worst-case that the Bills will remain behind all these teams and a best-case that they'll surpass two of them.

 

Here's a link to the final standings from last year: http://www.nfl.com/standings

 

It looks to me like all the 9-7 teams are fairly stable, competent programs who will be difficult for the Bills to surpass.

 

So it looks to me like the Bills in the best case will remain the 9th to 11th-worst team in the league and a worst case scenario where they falll as far as the 4th-worst team in the league.

 

In the worst-case scenario, the Bills probably have a shot at either Locker or Mallete or whoever comprises next year's "elite" quarterback group.

 

Hope this helps and welcome to the board.

 

 

Well-organized answer, but IMHO you have omitted one major factor. Just as there are always some teams which take major leaps upwards, every year there are teams which take huge leaps backwards. Every single year. And you can bet on it happening again. Some teams that were 9 - 7 or 10 - 6 will fall to 3 - 5 win teams. It'll happen again.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

It looks to me like all the 9-7 teams are fairly stable, competent programs who will be difficult for the Bills to surpass.

So it looks to me like the Bills in the best case will remain the 9th to 11th-worst team in the league and a worst case scenario where they falll as far as the 4th-worst team in the league.

 

In the worst-case scenario, the Bills probably have a shot at either Locker or Mallete or whoever comprises next year's "elite" quarterback group.

 

Hope this helps and welcome to the board.

 

 

Well-organized answer, but IMHO you have omitted one major factor. Just as there are always some teams which take major leaps upwards, every year there are teams which take huge leaps backwards. Every single year. And you can bet on it happening again. Some teams that were 9 - 7 or 10 - 6 will fall to 3 - 5 win teams. It'll happen again.

Whattup Thurman. I did actually address that but didn't see any teams I thought likely for us to surpass. Here are the 9-7 and 10-6 teams. Care to guess which teams will slide so badly that the Bills will surpass them?

 

New England 10-6

Cincinnati Bengals 10-6

Pittsburgh 9-7

Baltimore 9-7

New York Jets 9-7

Houston 9-7

Atlanta 9-7

[Damian]

Whattup Thurman. I did actually address that but didn't see any teams I thought likely for us to surpass. Here are the 9-7 and 10-6 teams. Care to guess which teams will slide so badly that the Bills will surpass them?

 

New England 10-6

Cincinnati Bengals 10-6

Pittsburgh 9-7

Baltimore 9-7

New York Jets 9-7

Houston 9-7

Atlanta 9-7

 

 

Pittsburgh could slide if Big Ben is suspended. Back to back winning seasons for the Begals and Texans is iffy as well. The 9-7 mark for the Texans was a franchise high.

[Thurman#1]

Whattup Thurman. I did actually address that but didn't see any teams I thought likely for us to surpass. Here are the 9-7 and 10-6 teams. Care to guess which teams will slide so badly that the Bills will surpass them?

 

New England 10-6

Cincinnati Bengals 10-6

Pittsburgh 9-7

Baltimore 9-7

New York Jets 9-7

Houston 9-7

Atlanta 9-7

 

 

Fair enough, but I don't care to guess. But I'm very sure that between one and three of them (and/or maybe even one or two with even better records) will plummet past us. That's the way the odds work.

 

The thing is, virtually every year when you look at the 9 - 7 teams after the season and then you look at the 5 - 11 teams, it looks like none of the better ones will backtrack wildly. But some of them always do. Who figured Miami to go from 11 - 5 in 2008 to 7 - 9 this last year with Parcells behind the wheel?

 

I liked your post, though.

[dollars 2 donuts]

Then there are teams which finished just ahead of us who could regress:

 

Miami 7-9

Jacksonville 7-9

Chicago 7-9

New York Giants 8-8

San Francisco 8-8

 

Lovie Smith, Jack Del Rio, and Tom Coughlin are all on the hot seat. If they don't improve their teams, they will be fired. Most people view San Francisco and Miami as ascending programs.

 

 

Well thought out and great post, SJBF.

 

I Love the Bills and will root like mad for them and I am not necessarily disagreeing with your logic. However, in my head I look at the five teams above and I just can't, I mean just can't imagine us being better then anyone of them next year.

 

Yeah, I love the bills, but I'm thinking they will pick 4th or 5th.

[sirebors]

I truly appreciate all of the input. Especially that submitted by San Jose and Thurman. They were both extremely informative.