Left Tackle

[BillsfaninSixburgh]

There is a difference between lowering expectations and having realistic expectations. Yes it would be nice if the Bills won and rebuilt. I think that's what most fans hope. But I'd rather them build the foundation of a long-term winner and go 7-9 or 6-10 one more year, than to go 9-7, 10-6 with smoke and mirrors like the Dolphins did in 2008. Do the Dolphins have a good foundation? Maybe, maybe not. But they regressed in 2009 in part because they took the short-term gain in 2008.

 

The Jets really have been building a foundation for the past few years. They addressed key positions on their lines and other positions prior to last year's drafting of Sanchez. They drafted a QB when they really believed the right guys was there.

 

No question the Falcons turned things around post-Vick with Matt Ryan. But everyone was surprised with his rookie performance in 2008, and they regressed somewhat last season.

 

So for the win now crowd, I hope your right. But if you give me the choice of building a beautiful house of cards or a solid brick house that doesn't look so good going up, and you can see the progress during construction, but sure is functional for a long time when its done, I'll take the brick house.

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

hehehehehehe yeah, unfortunately I could see buffalo ruining the franchise by drafting Tebow...

That's like worrying about littering in Hiroshima... right after the bomb landed

[spartacus]

I agree with the patient approach you've described, and the fact that, if the Bills are to build themselves into a contender, it will be the work of several years. I strongly disagree with the approach you've suggested to the draft.

 

Your odds of finding a first-rate QB outside the first round are slim at best. There are some exceptions: Drew Brees in the second, Joe Montana in the third, Tom Brady in the sixth, Kurt Warner as an UDFA. But the odds of something like that happening to your team are slim. Most good QBs are taken in the first round; normally in the first half of the first round. If there's a franchise QB available when the Bills pick at #9, the Bills should take him. If there isn't, the Bills will probably have to wait until next year to seriously address the QB position. (As any 2nd round pick or lower is likely to prove a waste of time.)

 

Which brings me to my second point. You wrote that, "In my mind, your 1st rounder has to play and have an immediate positive impact." An "immediate positive impact" could cause the Bills to win some games they otherwise would have lost; thereby hurting their draft position for 2011. That's especially important if the Bills don't take a first round QB in 2010; and are thus in need of taking one of the top QBs in 2011 (like Locker). If the Bills don't take Clausen this year, and if they go 7-9 or 8-8 due to "immediate impact" guys helping our record, the chances of getting the QB problem solved once and for all could slip through our fingers.

 

Any plan about how to rebuild this franchise needs to begin with a plan for the QB position. That plan should involve either taking Clausen this year, or writing off the 2010 season in order to be able to take a QB early in the 2011 draft. Those are the two options most likely to succeed. Any third option (such as a 2nd round QB or something) is associated with a much higher degree of risk, and a significantly reduced chance of getting a game-changing QB.

 

During the first two years or so of a rebuilding project, my preference is to avoid immediate impact players. You want guys who typically take a little longer to learn--QBs, LTs, DL, WRs, etc.--in order to avoid losing good draft position too quickly. Being in the top ten of the draft allows you to get the kinds of players you might not see lower down. Once your quarterback and other slow-developing players start to contribute, then it's time to think about more immediate impact players such as LBs, RBs, etc.

 

The Bills have been following your philosphy of drafting crappy players in the 1st round for the last decade. Can't get any less immediate production than Maybin in 2009

 

should be no concern that the Bills will suddenly become good from the draft choices made the talent evalautors at OBD

 

However, to further hedge their bets that they will be in contention for a top QB in 2011, they have decided to change to a 3-4 which they are ill equiped to execute. This alone should keep them in the bottom of the league.

[transient]

I agree with the patient approach you've described, and the fact that, if the Bills are to build themselves into a contender, it will be the work of several years. I strongly disagree with the approach you've suggested to the draft.

 

Your odds of finding a first-rate QB outside the first round are slim at best. There are some exceptions: Drew Brees in the second, Joe Montana in the third, Tom Brady in the sixth, Kurt Warner as an UDFA. But the odds of something like that happening to your team are slim. Most good QBs are taken in the first round; normally in the first half of the first round. If there's a franchise QB available when the Bills pick at #9, the Bills should take him. If there isn't, the Bills will probably have to wait until next year to seriously address the QB position. (As any 2nd round pick or lower is likely to prove a waste of time.)

 

Which brings me to my second point. You wrote that, "In my mind, your 1st rounder has to play and have an immediate positive impact." An "immediate positive impact" could cause the Bills to win some games they otherwise would have lost; thereby hurting their draft position for 2011. That's especially important if the Bills don't take a first round QB in 2010; and are thus in need of taking one of the top QBs in 2011 (like Locker). If the Bills don't take Clausen this year, and if they go 7-9 or 8-8 due to "immediate impact" guys helping our record, the chances of getting the QB problem solved once and for all could slip through our fingers.

 

Any plan about how to rebuild this franchise needs to begin with a plan for the QB position. That plan should involve either taking Clausen this year, or writing off the 2010 season in order to be able to take a QB early in the 2011 draft. Those are the two options most likely to succeed. Any third option (such as a 2nd round QB or something) is associated with a much higher degree of risk, and a significantly reduced chance of getting a game-changing QB.

 

During the first two years or so of a rebuilding project, my preference is to avoid immediate impact players. You want guys who typically take a little longer to learn--QBs, LTs, DL, WRs, etc.--in order to avoid losing good draft position too quickly. Being in the top ten of the draft allows you to get the kinds of players you might not see lower down. Once your quarterback and other slow-developing players start to contribute, then it's time to think about more immediate impact players such as LBs, RBs, etc.

 

I don't buy your draft approach. When it comes to QB, I think you have to put your head on the chopping block and get the guy you want. If they don't think Clausen is that guy, then fill another need. If you're record is improving, and you identify "that guy" next year, acquire the pick to get him. The only way to guarantee it otherwise is to finish dead last, which, in a league with Oakland and Detroit, isn't as easy as it sounds. I realize acquiring picks is expensive, but if they would have done that the year Rivers, Manning, and Big Ben were drafted instead of hoping and praying that one fell to them, we wouldn't be having this discussion. Two of the three have rings already... three of four if you count JP's junior varsity championship ring. Big Ben should have been ours if the front office would have moved up, what, three spots? Instead they traded away our first the following year to get JP cuz they got scooped. Think Houston would have taken our first the next year to drop three spots so we could move up and get Roethlisberger?! I want our FO to start operating from a position of control instead of panic, and also to stop drafting projects in a failed attempt at making themselves look smarter than everyone else. Not taking impact players doesnt' fit that approach.

[kenneuf]

Or what? Splain us.

 

And, oh, by the way, there might not even be a next year.

2011

[kenneuf]

Define "win big." All of us would like to see them go 16-0 and win the Super Bowl next year. Unfortunately that is highly unlikely. For that matter, even making the playoffs is highly unlikely. At this point, the Bills are still the 4th rated team in the AFC East. Even with a great draft they don't look to be in a position to go into the season ranked any higher than 3rd (and most non-Bills fans would tell you jumping over Miami to 3rd in the division is a stretch).

 

As much as it hurts to say it, the Bills have been a 10-year doormat and have glaring needs at almost every position. In my mind, "win big" or just having a good season would entail finally addressing both lines and laying the foundation for the future; playing competitive,entertaining and well-coached football; and showing the fans that there are finally some competent people running the franchise again.

 

As far as the QB position, the QB of the future is probably not on the roster today. I don't know if he's out there in this draft either. The safer pick right now is a LT or stud DL. They can't afford to blow another 1st round pick. In my mind, your 1st rounder has to play and have an immediate positive impact. If a solid QB prospect is available anywhere between the 2nd and 4th rounds, go for it. A QB in the draft this year is going to be watching from the sidelines, so that isn't going to help "win big" this year.

 

I know impatient fans don't want to hear that reality. I hate to keep referring to the "glory days/Kelly era". But young Bills fans (under 25) either don't understand or seem to have forgotten how the Kelly era team had to evolve over three to four seasons. From 1983 to 1985 the Bills were one of the worst teams in the league, going 2-14 in 1984 and 1985. Kelly (and C Kent Hull) came to Buffalo from the USFL for the 1986 season. Even with Kelly (who was ready to be the starter the day he arrived), we knew they weren't going to the playoffs, and they finished 4-12 that year. Still, you finally knew the team was going in the right direction. Hopes were a little higher for 1987 (they drafted Shane Conlan) . The Bills finished 7-9, but you knew it was now a team on the doorstep of success. Then they drafted Thurman Thomas in 88, and that was their breakout year going 12-4. From 88 to 1996 (Kelly's last year) they were perenially playoff/Super Bowl contenders. They built that team primarily through great drafts from 1985 to 1989, along with a few good free agent signings and trades (like James Lofton and Cornelius Bennett). Despite progress each year, the wins did not come overnight.

 

So even though they didn't "win big" in 1986 or 1987, they were still a fun and exciting team to watch, and you knew better things were on the horizon. Teams can rebuild much more rapidly in today's NFL with the current free agency rules, but there weren't many good free agents out there this year. So it's back to the draft, which will take a little longer, but will likely yield better long term results.

next year in 2011

[kenneuf]

Define "win big." All of us would like to see them go 16-0 and win the Super Bowl next year. Unfortunately that is highly unlikely. For that matter, even making the playoffs is highly unlikely. At this point, the Bills are still the 4th rated team in the AFC East. Even with a great draft they don't look to be in a position to go into the season ranked any higher than 3rd (and most non-Bills fans would tell you jumping over Miami to 3rd in the division is a stretch).

 

As much as it hurts to say it, the Bills have been a 10-year doormat and have glaring needs at almost every position. In my mind, "win big" or just having a good season would entail finally addressing both lines and laying the foundation for the future; playing competitive,entertaining and well-coached football; and showing the fans that there are finally some competent people running the franchise again.

 

As far as the QB position, the QB of the future is probably not on the roster today. I don't know if he's out there in this draft either. The safer pick right now is a LT or stud DL. They can't afford to blow another 1st round pick. In my mind, your 1st rounder has to play and have an immediate positive impact. If a solid QB prospect is available anywhere between the 2nd and 4th rounds, go for it. A QB in the draft this year is going to be watching from the sidelines, so that isn't going to help "win big" this year.

 

I know impatient fans don't want to hear that reality. I hate to keep referring to the "glory days/Kelly era". But young Bills fans (under 25) either don't understand or seem to have forgotten how the Kelly era team had to evolve over three to four seasons. From 1983 to 1985 the Bills were one of the worst teams in the league, going 2-14 in 1984 and 1985. Kelly (and C Kent Hull) came to Buffalo from the USFL for the 1986 season. Even with Kelly (who was ready to be the starter the day he arrived), we knew they weren't going to the playoffs, and they finished 4-12 that year. Still, you finally knew the team was going in the right direction. Hopes were a little higher for 1987 (they drafted Shane Conlan) . The Bills finished 7-9, but you knew it was now a team on the doorstep of success. Then they drafted Thurman Thomas in 88, and that was their breakout year going 12-4. From 88 to 1996 (Kelly's last year) they were perenially playoff/Super Bowl contenders. They built that team primarily through great drafts from 1985 to 1989, along with a few good free agent signings and trades (like James Lofton and Cornelius Bennett). Despite progress each year, the wins did not come overnight.

 

So even though they didn't "win big" in 1986 or 1987, they were still a fun and exciting team to watch, and you knew better things were on the horizon. Teams can rebuild much more rapidly in today's NFL with the current free agency rules, but there weren't many good free agents out there this year. So it's back to the draft, which will take a little longer, but will likely yield better long term results.

Next year as in 2011 Sick of my emotional investment not paying off. I don't want a 4 year plan.

[kenneuf]

they dont need to "win big" this year, and it will most likely be a 7-9 team at best. I dont think anybody thinks that a LT will magically solve our problems. This is an awful post.... noone wants there QB knocked around, want to know how to beat the pats and Indy- pressure there QBs. I think its pretty much understood by apparently everyone by you is that we have 2 huge needs on offense..QB and LT. We most likely arent going to solve them both this year and if we do they they will be young and inexperianced or average which seemingly will seem like we didnt make any improvements for the year to come. We most likely wont be competitive in our division for 2-3 years.

Next year as in 2011.I didn't say this year. It is April 2010 this year. This year is 2010. Next year is 2011.Clarity?

[Celtic_soulja]

That's like worrying about littering in Hiroshima... right after the bomb landed

 

heheheeheheh true...

[kenneuf]

Define "win big." All of us would like to see them go 16-0 and win the Super Bowl next year. Unfortunately that is highly unlikely. For that matter, even making the playoffs is highly unlikely. At this point, the Bills are still the 4th rated team in the AFC East. Even with a great draft they don't look to be in a position to go into the season ranked any higher than 3rd (and most non-Bills fans would tell you jumping over Miami to 3rd in the division is a stretch).

 

As much as it hurts to say it, the Bills have been a 10-year doormat and have glaring needs at almost every position. In my mind, "win big" or just having a good season would entail finally addressing both lines and laying the foundation for the future; playing competitive,entertaining and well-coached football; and showing the fans that there are finally some competent people running the franchise again.

 

As far as the QB position, the QB of the future is probably not on the roster today. I don't know if he's out there in this draft either. The safer pick right now is a LT or stud DL. They can't afford to blow another 1st round pick. In my mind, your 1st rounder has to play and have an immediate positive impact. If a solid QB prospect is available anywhere between the 2nd and 4th rounds, go for it. A QB in the draft this year is going to be watching from the sidelines, so that isn't going to help "win big" this year.

 

I know impatient fans don't want to hear that reality. I hate to keep referring to the "glory days/Kelly era". But young Bills fans (under 25) either don't understand or seem to have forgotten how the Kelly era team had to evolve over three to four seasons. From 1983 to 1985 the Bills were one of the worst teams in the league, going 2-14 in 1984 and 1985. Kelly (and C Kent Hull) came to Buffalo from the USFL for the 1986 season. Even with Kelly (who was ready to be the starter the day he arrived), we knew they weren't going to the playoffs, and they finished 4-12 that year. Still, you finally knew the team was going in the right direction. Hopes were a little higher for 1987 (they drafted Shane Conlan) . The Bills finished 7-9, but you knew it was now a team on the doorstep of success. Then they drafted Thurman Thomas in 88, and that was their breakout year going 12-4. From 88 to 1996 (Kelly's last year) they were perenially playoff/Super Bowl contenders. They built that team primarily through great drafts from 1985 to 1989, along with a few good free agent signings and trades (like James Lofton and Cornelius Bennett). Despite progress each year, the wins did not come overnight.

 

So even though they didn't "win big" in 1986 or 1987, they were still a fun and exciting team to watch, and you knew better things were on the horizon. Teams can rebuild much more rapidly in today's NFL with the current free agency rules, but there weren't many good free agents out there this year. So it's back to the draft, which will take a little longer, but will likely yield better long term results.

Next year is 2011 This year is 2010. 2 year plan not 4.

[BillsVet]

There is a difference between lowering expectations and having realistic expectations. Yes it would be nice if the Bills won and rebuilt. I think that's what most fans hope. But I'd rather them build the foundation of a long-term winner and go 7-9 or 6-10 one more year, than to go 9-7, 10-6 with smoke and mirrors like the Dolphins did in 2008. Do the Dolphins have a good foundation? Maybe, maybe not. But they regressed in 2009 in part because they took the short-term gain in 2008.

 

So for the win now crowd, I hope your right. But if you give me the choice of building a beautiful house of cards or a solid brick house that doesn't look so good going up, and you can see the progress during construction, but sure is functional for a long time when its done, I'll take the brick house.

 

2007 Dolphins: 1-15 2008-09: 18-14, 1 playoff appearance

2007 Falcons: 4-12 2008-09: 20-12, 1 playoff appearance

 

If it's smoke and mirrors to do what ATL and MIA have done, sign me up. Going from (EDIT: top) 3 pick in 2008 to winning no fewer than 9 games their next 2 seasons. By the way, Miami's Tony Sparano has the same record in his first two seasons with that rebuilding Miami team as Chan Gailey had with the fading Cowboys dynasty of the late nineties.

 

For some reason, Bills fans have adopted a defeatist mentality. It's almost as if rebuilding itself means the new folks at OBD are given another free pass for 2-3 years. It was like that when Marv was hired. And while I'm aware they haven't been the ones running the show for the past 10 years, Nix, Gailey, Smithers, and old Ralphie should have a sense of urgency given the failure to reach the playoffs in forever.

 

I feel like Dick Jauron himself is posting on TBD, given that it's hard to win in the NFL.

[BillsfaninSixburgh]

Look at the records each year as opposed to the two year combined record and you make my point.

 

Dolphins 2008: 11-5; 2009: 7-9 Missed playoffs - smoke / mirrors (i.e. Wildcat) in 08 led to regression in 09. The Fish could as easily get worse as get better.

 

Falcons 2008: 11-5 2009: 9-7 Missed playoffs - not quite as much smoke, but still a step back from 08. I do think Falcons are a team on the rise. I would love for the Bills to go 11-5; 9-7 over the next two season, Although I think their likely progression would more likely be 7-9 then 11-5.

 

I don't consider myself a defeatist, but after watching the Bills and the NFL for about 40 years, I'm intelligent enough to know that quick turnarounds (while they do happen occassionally), aren't the norm. They also require quite a bit of luck (i.e. Ryan's early performance for the Falcons), or a really smart "strategery" like Tony Soprano and Tuna Fish cooked up in Miami with the Wildcat.

 

I'm not saying the Bills should go 2-14; but somewhere between 7-9 and 9-7 this year with a visible plan for the future is a reasonable and optimistic expectation. Anything more than that is gravy (and unlikely).

[seadog]

I do beleive our future QB is already on the roster. We will not draft one this year unless it's 5th round or later project. From the three young guys we have a starter will emerge. We will spend this draft filling holes along the offensive and defensive lines. I'm tired of all this Clausen or Tebow. None how's that. Our QB's are very talented we just have to give protection and weapons and go out and play some good defense. What do think about that.

[kenneuf]

What's LT matter...? Tebow if left handed ain't he?

Not out of line thinking and it makes the Jags just that more likely to move and not us.

[Cash]

Take a look at last years AFC Wildcard game at New England, the winning QB of the Ravens went 4 of 10 for 34 yards...THATS IT! The Ravens won with a dominating 3-4 defense and power running attack. They won 33-14 and Ray Rice had 22 rushes for 159 yards and played keep away from Tom Brady.

 

After that game the Patriots fans were literally crying, and whining that the dynasty was over.

 

In today's pass happy offenses the Ravens and NY Jets have superior O lines and running games that enabled then to get into the playoffs despite their QB's.

 

If last years playoff game didn't open up some eyes at OBD... then nothing will! The Bills biggest rival was trounced at their home, in a playoff game, and against a healthy Tom Brady.

 

When Dick Jauron was first hired I was hoping he would build a team like he had in Chicago, a power running attack with a strong defense. Instead he tried to resurrect the "greatest show on turf" by hiring a Mike Martz disciple in Steve Fairchild and build the "greatest show in snow".

 

Then Fairchild quit and Jauron replaced him with two QB coaches who weren't ready to become offensive coordinators. Jauron clearly didn't know enough about building an offense and it failed miserably year after year.

 

Chan Gailey is an offensive minded coach noted for building a strong powerful ground attack, and if the Bills have a ground game anything like the Ravens or Jets... then they won't need a Payton Manning / Drew Brees type franchise QB to run it.

 

So you don't need a Manning/Brees type if everything else is great? But I watched the Super Bowl last year, and I'm pretty sure that Manning and Brees were the starting QBs in that game. I'm also pretty sure that neither one played behind a particularly good LT. Bushrod got completely abused by Schobel when they played us this year, and while Schobel is pretty good, he's not exactly wreaking havoc with the opposing LT every week. And the Colts' LT in the Super Bowl, whose name escapes me at the moment, was only starting because Tony Ugoh flamed out so spectacularly.

 

Those same playoffs that you're pointing to just show how much more important QB is than LT. Even with the best defense in the NFL, arguably the best O-line in the NFL (certainly right up there), and the best running game in the NFL, the Jets weren't able to make the Super Bowl, much less win it (not to mention they went 9-7 in the regular season, and that's including the two freebie wins against the Colts/Bengals backups). Why? Because Sanchez wasn't ready yet, and didn't deliver very good play from the QB position. Note that in both playoff games that the Jets won, Sanchez played very well. It's not a coincidence that Sanchez's play served as a good barometer for the success of the Jets.