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Lost in Space


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Was at the Air and Space Museum last weekend. My wife and I both got teary standing close to the capsules and seeing the footage of the brave men and women who have gone to space. This upcoming gap of America's ability to launch people into space is indeed sad.

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Was at the Air and Space Museum last weekend. My wife and I both got teary standing close to the capsules and seeing the footage of the brave men and women who have gone to space. This upcoming gap of America's ability to launch people into space is indeed sad.

 

And you didn't even let me know. I could have given you the guided tour...shown you all the errors...

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And you didn't even let me know. I could have given you the guided tour...shown you all the errors...

 

Sometimes you're funny.

 

Pretty sure my 8 year old was suitably impressed with it all. She did think that the old Apollo and Mercury capsules looked damn scary.

 

The air side was not interesting to her.

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Sometimes you're funny.

 

Pretty sure my 8 year old was suitably impressed with it all. She did think that the old Apollo and Mercury capsules looked damn scary.

 

The air side was not interesting to her.

 

I was only kidding anyway...last I checked, they fixed all the mistakes I pointed out to them. There's a display on the grounds of the US Naval Acadamey, however...

 

You wouldn't think those Mercury capsulse were as small as they are, until you see them. Nowadays they'd call that a human rights abuse. Probably why they killed the manned program...

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I was only kidding anyway...last I checked, they fixed all the mistakes I pointed out to them. There's a display on the grounds of the US Naval Acadamey, however...

 

You wouldn't think those Mercury capsulse were as small as they are, until you see them. Nowadays they'd call that a human rights abuse. Probably why they killed the manned program...

 

I could never fit in them. The look like 50s refrigerators.

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Gone will be the days when we could travel the world and people, hearing that we are American, will light up and say "Ah, NASA!"

 

I'm not holding my breath for "Oh! Public Exchanges! And CHIP!!!"

 

Maybe Rammstein will dress up like doctors, congress critters, and insurance execs instead of Astronauts next time they do a video for We're All Living In Amerika

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Gone will be the days when we could travel the world and people, hearing that we are American, will light up and say "Ah, NASA!"

 

I'm not holding my breath for "Oh! Public Exchanges! And CHIP!!!"

 

I actually heard more "ah, Chicago, shoot 'em up, bang, bang!"

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I actually heard more "ah, Chicago, shoot 'em up, bang, bang!"

 

In all seriousness, my anecdote is real. I was surprised in my travels in asia and the middle-east at how often the young and educated brought up NASA, and how their views about the US turned positive when discussing our space program - this regardless of their normal leanings. It is IMO among the most powerfull tools we have in our PR arsenal, and that aspect is unappreciated here.

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In all seriousness, my anecdote is real. I was surprised in my travels in asia and the middle-east at how often the young and educated brought up NASA, and how their views about the US turned positive when discussing our space program - this regardless of their normal leanings. It is IMO among the most powerfull tools we have in our PR arsenal, and that aspect is unappreciated here.

 

So is mine but mine is more from Europeans.

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Sooo lets see ...... You want the Government to PAY for the Shuttle ... Your Tax $$$ at work.

 

What about Private Industry? They would probably get it done under budget because the don't have all of the Red Tape to deal with.

 

The replacement vehicle for the shuttle is over 2 years behind schedule.

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Sooo lets see ...... You want the Government to PAY for the Shuttle ... Your Tax $$$ at work.

 

What about Private Industry? They would probably get it done under budget because the don't have all of the Red Tape to deal with.

 

The replacement vehicle for the shuttle is over 2 years behind schedule.

 

We have the worst of both worlds. We think private industry will pay for the development of a capability, but want to ensure that NASA drives and regulates it.

 

Suppose you have an approach that gets a manned shuttle in orbit for only $500k, but the shuttle blows up on launch 2% of the time. Good enough for pioneering spirits, and good enough for people wanting their payloads launched, but do you really think NASA would let you launch?

 

There would be no commercial air industry if the current regulatory philosophy had been in place a century ago. The Wright brothers would have been shut down for reckless endangerment.

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Suppose you have an approach that gets a manned shuttle in orbit for only $500k, but the shuttle blows up on launch 2% of the time. Good enough for pioneering spirits, and good enough for people wanting their payloads launched, but do you really think NASA would let you launch?

 

That's about the shuttle's safety record now. Two lost in 130 or so missions.

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That's about the shuttle's safety record now. Two lost in 130 or so missions.

 

Touche!

 

But I'm still willing to bet that if a private company had that as an expected safety record (as opposed to 'ooops, we'll get it right next time), they would be prevented from flying manned missions.

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Touche!

 

But I'm still willing to bet that if a private company had that as an expected safety record (as opposed to 'ooops, we'll get it right next time), they would be prevented from flying manned missions.

 

Maybe, maybe not. 98% is pretty high for such a dangerous activity, and was about the estimated reliability rate of the Gemini and Apollo missions. NASA's bigger problem in that regard is the unrealistic expectations expressed by their management - their risk analysis of the shuttle program was always along the lines of "The odds of losing a shuttle are 100,000 to 1, because if the risk is any higher I might lose my job. I don't care if the engineers say it's 100 to 1, I'm a lawyer and I know better."

 

Doesn't mean that a regulated private space industry wouldn't be required to meet some fictitious 100% reliability rate...but a sane regulatory environment would probably be satisfied by 99% and sufficient evidence of risk analysis and mitigation.

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