The Bills draft bar has been set pretty low

[LGB]

Looking at the list of previous Bill's staff top draft picks (below) is all you need to know about why there hasn't been one whiff of the playoffs in WNY for a very long time. Number one picks should be able to make an impact or contribute right away, especially since a lot of guaranteed money has been tied up in these picks (Wood was unfortunately injured last year).

 

2000 Erik Flowers *

2001 Nate Clements

2002 Mike Williams *

2003 Willis McGahee *

2004 Lee Evans

2004 J.P. Losman *

2005 No 1st Round Pick, Roscoe Parrish (2nd Round)?

2006 Donte Whitner *

2006 John McCargo *

2007 Marshawn Lynch *

2008 Leodis McKelvin T ?

2009 Aaron Maybin *

2009 Eric Wood?

 

(* = bust?)

 

These players did not pick themselves and in hindsight, some of the Bill's top draft selections have been really bad, but at some point, maybe teams should start looking at all the guaranteed bonus money that is tied up for top draft picks and implement a fair rookie cap - where performance is rewarded instead of which round someone decided to select you. Beside drafting a dud that does not make an impact, another problem with the guaranteed money is that bad top picks (like McCargo) tend to stay on the roster longer. Sometimes you just need to just cut your loses and move on - and a rookie cap would make the minefield of bad investments a little easier to navigate.

[WVUFootball29]

We talking positive or negative impact?

[Bob in STL]

Looking at the list of previous Bill's staff top draft picks (below) is all you need to know about why there hasn't been one whiff of the playoffs in WNY for a very long time. Number one picks should be able to make an impact or contribute right away, especially since a lot of guaranteed money has been tied up in these picks (Wood was unfortunately injured last year).

 

2000 Erik Flowers *

2001 Nate Clements

2002 Mike Williams *

2003 Willis McGahee *

2004 Lee Evans

2004 J.P. Losman *

2005 No 1st Round Pick, Roscoe Parrish (2nd Round)?

2006 Donte Whitner *

2006 John McCargo *

2007 Marshawn Lynch *

2008 Leodis McKelvin T ?

2009 Aaron Maybin *

2009 Eric Wood?

 

(* = bust?)

 

These players did not pick themselves and in hindsight, some of the Bill's top draft selections have been really bad, but at some point, maybe teams should start looking at all the guaranteed bonus money that is tied up for top draft picks and implement a fair rookie cap - where performance is rewarded instead of which round someone decided to select you. Beside drafting a dud that does not make an impact, another problem with the guaranteed money is that bad top picks (like McCargo) tend to stay on the roster longer. Sometimes you just need to just cut your loses and move on - and a rookie cap would make the minefield of bad investments a little easier to navigate.

 

My take:

 

2000 Erik Flowers - bust (John Butler pick)

2001 Nate Clements - very good player that we should have kept. (Donahoe)

2002 Mike Williams - bust (Donahoe)

2003 Willis McGahee - not a bust, major waste of a draft pick though (Donahoe)

2004 Lee Evans - very good player, could be an impact player in the right situation. (Donahoe)

2004 J.P. Losman - bust, trade up by Donahoe.

2005 No 1st Round Pick, Roscoe Parrish (2nd Round)? - not a bust but another wasted pick by Donahoe

2006 Donte Whitner - good player, not a star, therefore a TBD whipping boy (Levy)

2006 John McCargo - this is the final year, then we can label him a bust. (Levy)

2007 Marshawn Lynch - very good player, just needs to grow up. (Levy)

2008 Leodis McKelvin - too soon to tell (Brandon/ Jauron)

2009 Aaron Maybin - too soon to tell (Brandon/ Jauron)

2009 Eric Wood - already looks like a future Pro Bowl player. (Brandon/ Jauron)

 

Overall a very poor decade to say the least.

[gobillsinytown]

I think this is another major issue holding up the collective bargaining agreement. The money being paid out to first round draft picks is out of control. I also think it's bad for the players themselves. Mike Williams is a great example: Once he got that bonus check, he knew he was set for life, and once he knew there was no real reason to play any more, why should he have to work so much harder to make it in the pros? That's why it seems so many first round draft picks bust out.

[Bronc24]

I think this is another major issue holding up the collective bargaining agreement. The money being paid out to first round draft picks is out of control. I also think it's bad for the players themselves. Mike Williams is a great example: Once he got that bonus check, he knew he was set for life, and once he knew there was no real reason to play any more, why should he have to work so much harder to make it in the pros? That's why it seems so many first round draft picks bust out.

 

 

You cannot blame the CBA for poor drafts...every other team deals with it and it appears they have done their due diligence on players better than we have. I really is as simple as that.

[BillsPhan]

Looking at the list of previous Bill's staff top draft picks (below) is all you need to know about why there hasn't been one whiff of the playoffs in WNY for a very long time. Number one picks should be able to make an impact or contribute right away, especially since a lot of guaranteed money has been tied up in these picks (Wood was unfortunately injured last year).

 

2000 Erik Flowers *

2001 Nate Clements

2002 Mike Williams *

2003 Willis McGahee *

2004 Lee Evans

2004 J.P. Losman *

2005 No 1st Round Pick, Roscoe Parrish (2nd Round)?

2006 Donte Whitner *

2006 John McCargo *

2007 Marshawn Lynch *

2008 Leodis McKelvin T ?

2009 Aaron Maybin *

2009 Eric Wood?

 

(* = bust?)

 

These players did not pick themselves and in hindsight, some of the Bill's top draft selections have been really bad, but at some point, maybe teams should start looking at all the guaranteed bonus money that is tied up for top draft picks and implement a fair rookie cap - where performance is rewarded instead of which round someone decided to select you. Beside drafting a dud that does not make an impact, another problem with the guaranteed money is that bad top picks (like McCargo) tend to stay on the roster longer. Sometimes you just need to just cut your loses and move on - and a rookie cap would make the minefield of bad investments a little easier to navigate.

 

100% correct on the new rookie cap idea. Aaron Maybins' stupid holdout while his agent waited to see how much every player drafted within 4 picks of him got paid was a disgusting display of pure unearned greed.

 

As for the question in your thread title? If you count Lee Evans as having a good impact, and I still think he has a ways to go to get into elite status, the next last first round draft pick that had a good impact on the Buffalo Bills was Nate Clements in 2001. That's 9 years ago. plus Clements bolted as soon as his free agency came up. Before him, Antoine Winfield was good from '99 draft, but another good player still producing who bolted in free agency. Going back 15 full years, you can add Eric Moulds and Ruben Brown from '96 and '95 as having good impact.

 

So my count is 5 first round picks that had positive impact for the Bills out of 16 total picks over the past 15 years. (I'm not counting Lynch, Poz, McKelvin or Wood yet, although every one still has a chance to turn out to have positive impacts -which would give Levy and Brandon/Modrak/InnerCircle a lot better drafting record. And yes, I'm not counting out Marshawn Lynch yet. He's got too much natural talent and is too young for us to give up on. And even if he gets traded, the player we get in return would count towards Lynch's impact in the future anyway.

[Bill from NYC]

My take:

 

2000 Erik Flowers - bust (John Butler pick)

2001 Nate Clements - very good player that we should have kept. (Donahoe)

2002 Mike Williams - bust (Donahoe)

2003 Willis McGahee - not a bust, major waste of a draft pick though (Donahoe)

2004 Lee Evans - very good player, could be an impact player in the right situation. (Donahoe)

2004 J.P. Losman - bust, trade up by Donahoe.

2005 No 1st Round Pick, Roscoe Parrish (2nd Round)? - not a bust but another wasted pick by Donahoe

2006 Donte Whitner - good player, not a star, therefore a TBD whipping boy (Levy)

2006 John McCargo - this is the final year, then we can label him a bust. (Levy)

2007 Marshawn Lynch - very good player, just needs to grow up. (Levy)

2008 Leodis McKelvin - too soon to tell (Brandon/ Jauron)

2009 Aaron Maybin - too soon to tell (Brandon/ Jauron)

2009 Eric Wood - already looks like a future Pro Bowl player. (Brandon/ Jauron)

 

 

Overall a very poor decade to say the least.

 

I will address the bold:

 

1) Parrish was an idiotic selection. The team was small and weak. TD used our top pick to make it smaller and weaker.

 

2) You don't draft a "good" safety at #8, unless the team either SO great that he is the missing link (highly unlikely for any team let alone the Bills) or you actually want to lose football games. Whitner was one of the dumbest selections I have ever seen, and this is not hindsight, trust me.

 

3) McCargo is a bust. He is a lousy player.

 

4) McKelvin was another stupid selection, but par for the course of the Levy/Jauron "play not to lose" mentality. Once again they used their best resources to draft a defensive back to play on a team that is poor in the trenches.

 

The best selection was Clements, because they traded down 7 spots to get him, and made good use of the extra 2nd round pick. In essence, they got Clements and Travis Henry (not one of my favorites mind you) for their original 14th selection, and took Schobel with their own selection in round 2. Not too shabby.

 

I don't think most fans can, or are willing to see just how much damage Levy/Jauron did to this team. It is going to take time and a lot of luck to undo their losing methods.

[LGB]

100% correct on the new rookie cap idea. Aaron Maybins' stupid holdout while his agent waited to see how much every player drafted within 4 picks of him got paid was a disgusting display of pure unearned greed.

 

As for the question in your thread title? If you count Lee Evans as having a good impact, and I still think he has a ways to go to get into elite status, the next last first round draft pick that had a good impact on the Buffalo Bills was Nate Clements in 2001. That's 9 years ago. plus Clements bolted as soon as his free agency came up. Before him, Antoine Winfield was good from '99 draft, but another good player still producing who bolted in free agency. Going back 15 full years, you can add Eric Moulds and Ruben Brown from '96 and '95 as having good impact.

 

So my count is 5 first round picks that had positive impact for the Bills out of 16 total picks over the past 15 years. (I'm not counting Lynch, Poz, McKelvin or Wood yet, although every one still has a chance to turn out to have positive impacts -which would give Levy and Brandon/Modrak/InnerCircle a lot better drafting record. And yes, I'm not counting out Marshawn Lynch yet. He's got too much natural talent and is too young for us to give up on. And even if he gets traded, the player we get in return would count towards Lynch's impact in the future anyway.

Eric Moulds (drafted in 1996) took a while to bloom, but once he did (in 1998), he stood out as the best player or one of the best players on the team for about the next four years (1998-2002).

 

Since we are going way back in time, here is the list since 1980 and to look at this list compared to the 2000s, twenty years without an apparent major bust looks pretty good!

 

1980 Jim Ritcher

1981 Booker Moore

1982 Perry Tuttle

1983 Tony Hunter

1983 Jim Kelly

1984 Greg Bell

1985 Bruce Smith, 1st Overall

1985 Derrick Burroughs

1986 Ronnie Harmon

1986 Will Wolford

1987 Shane Conlan

1988 No 1st Rd Pick, Thurman Thomas (2nd Round)

1989 No 1st Rd Pick, Don Beebe (3rd Round)

1990 James Williams

1991 Henry Jones

1992 John Fina

1993 Thomas Smith

1994 Jeff Burris

1995 Ruben Brown

1996 Eric Moulds

1997 Antowain Smith

1998 No 1st Rd Pick, Sam Cowart (2nd Round)

1999 Antoine Winfield

 

So what does this list combined with a good staff equate to?

 

Playoff appearances in 1980, 1981, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999

AFC East Division championships: 1980, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1995

AFC Conference championships: 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993

Buffalo Bills General Manager - Bill Polian: 1986–1993

________________________________________________________________

 

Unfortunately since 1999, the number of 1st round busts have been plenty and the number of playoff appearances is zero

________________________________________________________________

[Rockinon]

While I am not a big fan of the small skill players selected, I have to disagree about your assumption that some of these guys are non impact players. Parish made one goofy play last year but the guy has consistently lead the league in returns. How many times have you seen him give us great field position? Or take one to the house? McKelvin too. This guy also has great return ability and he is no slouch as a DB. The only reason there is no impact is because our offense can't seem to capitalize on great field position. The non impact is from not getting quality offensive linemen and maybe QBs. I am not yet convinced that our quarterbacks are as bad as they seem either. The only real way to see for sure is to put some quality linemen in front of them and see.

[LGB]

While I am not a big fan of the small skill players selected, I have to disagree about your assumption that some of these guys are non impact players. Parish made one goofy play last year but the guy has consistently lead the league in returns. How many times have you seen him give us great field position? Or take one to the house? McKelvin too. This guy also has great return ability and he is no slouch as a DB. The only reason there is no impact is because our offense can't seem to capitalize on great field position. The non impact is from not getting quality offensive linemen and maybe QBs. I am not yet convinced that our quarterbacks are as bad as they seem either. The only real way to see for sure is to put some quality linemen in front of them and see.

on my original list, Parrish and McKelvin are question marks and it could be that the damage has already been done to Trent Edwards. The OL should have never been allowed to fall so far below par, but the Bills wanted to get something for nothing with Peters (couldn't sign him to a deal) and have been playing musical lineman ever since.

[billsfreak]

Eric Moulds was probably the last impact player drafted #1 and that is pushing it, otherwise Bruce Smith-wow and that was 25 years ago, so sad! Erik Flower, Mike Williams and McGahee impacted the franchise, but not in a good way.

[tonyjustbcuz]

Looking at the list of previous Bill's staff top draft picks (below) is all you need to know about why there hasn't been one whiff of the playoffs in WNY for a very long time. Number one picks should be able to make an impact or contribute right away, especially since a lot of guaranteed money has been tied up in these picks (Wood was unfortunately injured last year).

 

2000 Erik Flowers *

2001 Nate Clements

2002 Mike Williams *

2003 Willis McGahee *

2004 Lee Evans

2004 J.P. Losman *

2005 No 1st Round Pick, Roscoe Parrish (2nd Round)?

2006 Donte Whitner *

2006 John McCargo *

2007 Marshawn Lynch *

2008 Leodis McKelvin T ?

2009 Aaron Maybin *

2009 Eric Wood?

 

(* = bust?)

 

These players did not pick themselves and in hindsight, some of the Bill's top draft selections have been really bad, but at some point, maybe teams should start looking at all the guaranteed bonus money that is tied up for top draft picks and implement a fair rookie cap - where performance is rewarded instead of which round someone decided to select you. Beside drafting a dud that does not make an impact, another problem with the guaranteed money is that bad top picks (like McCargo) tend to stay on the roster longer. Sometimes you just need to just cut your loses and move on - and a rookie cap would make the minefield of bad investments a little easier to navigate.

 

 

I hated the Maybin pick over Orakapo at DE when we picked him...but I think we'll have to wait until after the upcoming season to get our answer on Maybin...I think as long as Eric Wood heals properly he'll be considered a good pick...I think

McKelvin may work out okay...I can't stand Lynch and overall he's been an average player with more problems than he's worth!

[Pondslider]

Eric Moulds was probably the last impact player drafted #1 and that is pushing it, otherwise Bruce Smith-wow and that was 25 years ago, so sad! Erik Flower, Mike Williams and McGahee impacted the franchise, but not in a good way.

 

 

Going back to the OP it seems like we're defining impact player as a player "able to make an impact or contribute right away." Moulds was considered by some to be a bust until he finally broke out in his third year. Over his first 2 seasons he only started 13 games and caught 49 passes and 2 TDs.

 

Based on the definition alone Lynch is probably the closest since he was a 1000 yard rusher as a rookie.

[ganesh]

My take:

 

2000 Erik Flowers - bust (John Butler pick)

2001 Nate Clements - very good player that we should have kept. (Donahoe)

2002 Mike Williams - bust (Donahoe)

2003 Willis McGahee - not a bust, major waste of a draft pick though (Donahoe)

2004 Lee Evans - very good player, could be an impact player in the right situation. (Donahoe)

2004 J.P. Losman - bust, trade up by Donahoe.

2005 No 1st Round Pick, Roscoe Parrish (2nd Round)? - not a bust but another wasted pick by Donahoe

2006 Donte Whitner - good player, not a star, therefore a TBD whipping boy (Levy)

2006 John McCargo - this is the final year, then we can label him a bust. (Levy)

2007 Marshawn Lynch - very good player, just needs to grow up. (Levy)

2008 Leodis McKelvin - too soon to tell (Brandon/ Jauron)

2009 Aaron Maybin - too soon to tell (Brandon/ Jauron)

2009 Eric Wood - already looks like a future Pro Bowl player. (Brandon/ Jauron)

 

Overall a very poor decade to say the least.

 

It would be useful to see how the 1st rounders panned out in the 1990s. My bet is that we had not had much success in that decade too, especially considering the place where they picked.

 

Reuben Brown had a long career....Other than that?

 

Antowain Winfield is in the same category as Clements or Whitner....None of them emerged like a Ed Reed or Polamalu.

[Lurker]

It would be useful to see how the 1st rounders panned out in the 1990s. My bet is that we had not had much success in that decade too, especially considering the place where they picked.

Bills draft history

 

Despite their lower draft position, virtually all of the '90s guys were productive players (Williams being the only outright bust).

[SouthGeorgiaBillsFan]

You cannot blame the CBA for poor drafts...every other team deals with it and it appears they have done their due diligence on players better than we have. I really is as simple as that.

 

Touche.

[billsfreak]

Going back to the OP it seems like we're defining impact player as a player "able to make an impact or contribute right away." Moulds was considered by some to be a bust until he finally broke out in his third year. Over his first 2 seasons he only started 13 games and caught 49 passes and 2 TDs.

 

Based on the definition alone Lynch is probably the closest since he was a 1000 yard rusher as a rookie.

I didn't see anything that specified they were talking about their rookie year only, otherwise, Jairus Byrd would be it since he led the league in INTs. I was refering to over the course of their career.

[earthtobrint]

I don't think most fans can, or are willing to see just how much damage Levy/Jauron did to this team. It is going to take time and a lot of luck to undo their losing methods.

 

Donahoe drafted more impact players for this team than Levy. They both had an unhealthy obsession with undersized lineman and undersized skill players while disregarding the offensive line, but at least Donahoe nailed a few picks. It's really sad to say, but the Levy/Jauron era set us back farther than Donahoe did.

[NewEra]

My take:

 

2000 Erik Flowers - bust (John Butler pick)

2001 Nate Clements - very good player that we should have kept. (Donahoe)

2002 Mike Williams - bust (Donahoe)

2003 Willis McGahee - not a bust, major waste of a draft pick though (Donahoe)

2004 Lee Evans - very good player, could be an impact player in the right situation. (Donahoe)

2004 J.P. Losman - bust, trade up by Donahoe.

2005 No 1st Round Pick, Roscoe Parrish (2nd Round)? - not a bust but another wasted pick by Donahoe

2006 Donte Whitner - good player, not a star, therefore a TBD whipping boy (Levy)

2006 John McCargo - this is the final year, then we can label him a bust. (Levy)

2007 Marshawn Lynch - very good player, just needs to grow up. (Levy)

2008 Leodis McKelvin - too soon to tell (Brandon/ Jauron)

2009 Aaron Maybin - too soon to tell (Brandon/ Jauron)

2009 Eric Wood - already looks like a future Pro Bowl player. (Brandon/ Jauron)

 

Overall a very poor decade to say the least.

 

you think he's worth 8 mill a year? lol yeeeeaaaaah!!! good riddance. I watch most of the niner games due to my roomate being a niner fan. he can hit people....and thats about it. theyre gonna turn him into a FS if they can get a good corner in the draft.

[Bob in STL]

you think he's worth 8 mill a year? lol yeeeeaaaaah!!! good riddance. I watch most of the niner games due to my roomate being a niner fan. he can hit people....and thats about it. theyre gonna turn him into a FS if they can get a good corner in the draft.

 

 

If we would have worked his contract a year early we could have got him for much less than $7M per year and he would have been worth it. I don't see Mckelvin playing better and what are we paying him .. and more important , what will CBs go for when he is an FA?

 

Moving a corner to FS is not unusual. Especially after 6-7 years in the league and a few injuries. Ronnie Lott come to mind.