Pioli on why you shouldn't take safeties at the top of the draft

[dave mcbride]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writ...meetings/1.html

 

If I were an NFL team drafting high, I'd be very careful evaluating Eric Berry.

 

The Tennessee safety, obviously, is a rare prospect. But the history of safeties in terms of longevity and greatness at the top of the draft is very shaky.

 

The nature of the position is smallish people throwing themselves around like linebackers, and that doesn't lend itself to long careers. The three best safeties to be drafted in the past decade -- Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu and Bob Sanders -- have missed 78 games due to injury in their 21 combined NFL seasons.

 

Berry looks like a top-10 pick, but the team that takes him is going to be picking against history. Of the five top-10 safeties this decade, none has had franchise-player impact: Roy Williams (Dallas, eighth overall, 2002), Sean Taylor (Washington, fifth overall, 2004), Michael Huff (Oakland, seventh, 2006), Donte Whitner (Buffalo, eighth, 2006), LaRon Landry (Washington, sixth, 2007). Taylor might have had franchise-player impact if he had not been gunned down three-and-a-half years into his career. But overall, the position justifies the caution lots of teams are taking with it.

 

Atlanta GM Thomas Dimitroff calls the safety-at-the-top-of-the-draft debate a conundrum. "It's been on my mind a lot lately," he said, "and I realize I'm speaking out of both sides of my mouth here, but Berry's a really good player. It's been on my mind quite a bit recently. You want the good hitter with hip movement, able to turn and run, but then reality sets in. I was talking to [Kansas City GM] Scott Pioli about Berry, and I said, 'Scott, this guy's your pick.' And he said, 'You know how I feel about safeties that early.' And I understand.''

 

I'm not saying Berry won't be a great player. Maybe he'll be Ed Reed. Maybe he'll know when to dish out the big hit and when to steer a player instead of seek and destroy. But the odds of him being great for a long time -- as opposed to the physical longevity of a tackle or defensive lineman or quarterback not subject to as many high-speed collisions -- are pretty long, based on history.

[DDD]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writ...meetings/1.html

 

If I were an NFL team drafting high, I'd be very careful evaluating Eric Berry.

 

The Tennessee safety, obviously, is a rare prospect. But the history of safeties in terms of longevity and greatness at the top of the draft is very shaky.

 

The nature of the position is smallish people throwing themselves around like linebackers, and that doesn't lend itself to long careers. The three best safeties to be drafted in the past decade -- Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu and Bob Sanders -- have missed 78 games due to injury in their 21 combined NFL seasons.

 

Berry looks like a top-10 pick, but the team that takes him is going to be picking against history. Of the five top-10 safeties this decade, none has had franchise-player impact: Roy Williams (Dallas, eighth overall, 2002), Sean Taylor (Washington, fifth overall, 2004), Michael Huff (Oakland, seventh, 2006), Donte Whitner (Buffalo, eighth, 2006), LaRon Landry (Washington, sixth, 2007). Taylor might have had franchise-player impact if he had not been gunned down three-and-a-half years into his career. But overall, the position justifies the caution lots of teams are taking with it.

 

Atlanta GM Thomas Dimitroff calls the safety-at-the-top-of-the-draft debate a conundrum. "It's been on my mind a lot lately," he said, "and I realize I'm speaking out of both sides of my mouth here, but Berry's a really good player. It's been on my mind quite a bit recently. You want the good hitter with hip movement, able to turn and run, but then reality sets in. I was talking to [Kansas City GM] Scott Pioli about Berry, and I said, 'Scott, this guy's your pick.' And he said, 'You know how I feel about safeties that early.' And I understand.''

 

I'm not saying Berry won't be a great player. Maybe he'll be Ed Reed. Maybe he'll know when to dish out the big hit and when to steer a player instead of seek and destroy. But the odds of him being great for a long time -- as opposed to the physical longevity of a tackle or defensive lineman or quarterback not subject to as many high-speed collisions -- are pretty long, based on history.

 

Donte Whitner over Ngata. Thanks Marv and Dick.

[....lybob]

Longevity is overblown, It's not like the old days when you owned a player for his career, you lease them for four years then have an option. on the other issues I'm generally a proponent of taking good big men over good little men but turnovers are gold, INTs and FFs are game changers, and anyone who can generate them on a consistent basis is worth much more than traditional positional values would indicate.

[DarthICE]

Donte Whitner over Ngata. Thanks Marv and Dick.

 

Yeah I have been bitching about that from about .0001 seconds after the pick was made.

[Cynical]

Longevity is overblown, It's not like the old days when you owned a player for his career, you lease them for four years then have an option. on the other issues I'm generally a proponent of taking good big men over good little men but turnovers are gold, INTs and FFs are game changers, and anyone who can generate them on a consistent basis is worth much more than traditional positional values would indicate.

 

No kidding just look at the Bills vs. Cowboys in 2007.

Or the Bills vs the Bengals back in 92(?).

[Rubes]

Yeah I have been bitching about that from about .0001 seconds after the pick was made.

 

It just boggles the mind how many times we've crapped the bed on our first round picks this past decade.

 

2000: Erik Flowers

2001: Nate Clements

2002: Mike Williams

2003: Willis McGahee

2004: Lee Evans, JP Losman

2005: None

2006: Donte Whitner, John McCargo

2007: Marshawn Lynch

2008: Leodis McKelvin

2009: Aaron Maybin, Eric Wood

 

Think about that: out of the last 12 first-round draft picks, only 3 are starters on our team (and two of those are the last two years). Unreal.

[CountDorkula]

It just boggles the mind how many times we've crapped the bed on our first round picks this past decade.

 

2000: Erik Flowers

2001: Nate Clements

2002: Mike Williams

2003: Willis McGahee

2004: Lee Evans, JP Losman

2005: None

2006: Donte Whitner, John McCargo

2007: Marshawn Lynch

2008: Leodis McKelvin

2009: Aaron Maybin, Eric Wood

 

Think about that: out of the last 12 first-round draft picks, only 3 are starters on our team (and two of those are the last two years). Unreal.

 

...And to think, we got the best bang for our buck in 2005

[KOKBILLS]

Yeah I have been bitching about that from about .0001 seconds after the pick was made.

 

I know right...

 

I remember that moment like it was yesterday...I expected Ngata to be the Pick all along...Long before the Draft...It just made sense for The Bills...Then I hear Whitner's name and all hell broke loose...I bought The Bills cover story initially cause I'm a Bills Fan and I want to believe...But Ngata was the pick there no question...Ol' Marv completely over-thought that one...

[UConn James]

I'm not saying Berry won't be a great player. Maybe he'll be Ed Reed. Maybe he'll know when to dish out the big hit and when to steer a player instead of seek and destroy. But the odds of him being great for a long time -- as opposed to the physical longevity of a tackle or defensive lineman or quarterback not subject to as many high-speed collisions -- are pretty long, based on history.

 

Longevity.... like Brad Butler.

 

Sorry, but especially for Buffalo, representing the equivalent of the Kansas City Royals of the NFL, IF we happen to pick a guy who plays well, there's ~ an 85 percent chance that he is GONE at the end of his rookie contract. So, really, what difference does it make?

 

If you really need a safety, take a friggin' safety.

 

By the by, RBs have the shortest NFL careers.... On average, almost a year less than any other position.

[dave mcbride]

Longevity.... like Brad Butler.

 

Sorry, but especially for Buffalo, representing the equivalent of the Kansas City Royals of the NFL, IF we happen to pick a guy who plays well, there's ~ an 85 percent chance that he is GONE at the end of his rookie contract. So, really, what difference does it make?

 

If you really need a safety, take a friggin' safety.

 

By the by, RBs have the shortest NFL careers.... On average, almost a year less than any other position.

The article is meant to apply across the league -- to those teams that unlike Buffalo, are willing to pay what it takes to ensure that Orlando Pace, Walter Jones, Jon Ogden, etc. are their starters for 10+ years. Incidentally, each of these players played essentially 12 seasons for the teams that drafted them. Tarik Glenn is another one - he played 10 years for the Colts, and started all 16 games in nine of them. In the other season, he started 10.

[BADOLBILZ]

The article is meant to apply across the league -- to those teams that unlike Buffalo, are willing to pay what it takes to ensure that Orlando Pace, Walter Jones, Jon Ogden, etc. are their starters for 10+ years. Incidentally, each of these players played essentially 12 seasons for the teams that drafted them. Tarik Glenn is another one - he played 10 years for the Colts, and started all 16 games in nine of them. In the other season, he started 10.

 

It's so blatantly obvious that you don't draft safeties that high and the only explanation for why teams do it is paralysis by over-analysis.

 

Like Belichick says, in order to be really bad in the NFL you have to make lots and lots of bad decisions. The Bills have done exactly that and the fact that their logic has been flawed for most of the past 10 years is the main reason. If they had just done what logic dictated the past decade they would have never reached this depth of futility. Blows my mind that after 10 years of this nonsense there are still people out there who want to defend certain draft failures, mishandled free agency and trades.......absurdity.

[Robert Paulson]

Yeah I have been bitching about that from about .0001 seconds after the pick was made.

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