Albany,n.y. Posted March 28, 2010 Share Posted March 28, 2010 I looked at the starting QBs from last season to see where it's most likely to get your starter, here are my findings, some teams I have split the starter into 2 halves: Team/QB/Round Drafted Baltimore: Flacco 1 Bills: Edwards 3, Fitzpatrick 7 Cincinnati: Palmer 1 Cleveland: Quinn 1, Anderson 6 Denver: Orton 4 Houston: Shaub 3 Indianapolis: Manning 1 Jacksonville: Garrard 4 Kansas City: Cassel 7 Miami: Henne 2 New England: Brady 6 NY Jets: Sanchez 1 Oakland: Russell 1, Gradkowski 6 Pittsburgh: Roethlisberger 1 San Diego: Rivers 1 Tennessee: Young 1 (so was Collins, so it doesn't matter) Arizona : Warner Undrafted Atlanta: Ryan 1 Carolina: Delhomme, Moore-Both Undrafted Chicago: Cutler 1 Dallas: Romo Undrafted Detroit: Stafford 1 Green Bay: Rodgers 1 Minnesota: Favre 2 New Orleans: Brees 2 NY Giants: Manning 1 Philadelphia: McNabb 1 St. Louis: Bulger 6, Boller 1 San Francisco: Smith 1 Seattle: Hasselbeck 6 Tampa Bay: Freeman 1 (so was Leftwich) Washington: Campbell 1 Breaking it down by round, giving 50% to each QB when 2 are listed, here are the percents of the total NFL starters in 2009 by round: 1st: 54.69% 2nd: 9.38% 3rd: 4.69% 4th: 6.25% 5th: 0 6th: 10.94% 7th: 4.69% Undrafted: 9.38% Clearly your best chance of finding a starting QB is in the 1st round. Although there are 6 other rounds and countless undrafted free agents brought in every year, more than half the starters were 1st rounders. Of the 17.5 starting former 1st rounders, only Cutler & Boller weren't with the same team they started their careers with, and Cutler was because of a forced trade. What this says is if you want to find a starter, the best way is to draft him in the 1st round. Surprisingly, the 2nd highest percentage was in the 6th round, but outside of Brady the other guys are journeymen like Anderson & Gradkowski who fell into jobs after a 1st rounder floundered, or guys at the end of their careers like Hasselbeck & Bulger. The telling stat for those 6th rounders is that of the 5 players, only Brady is with the team that drafted him, the rest have all been cut at some point, including Hasselbeck who was cut & PS'd as a rookie. Next group is the tie between 2nd round & undrafted. The 2nd produced 2 stars and the yet to be determined Henne. Both stars found their best years away from the drafting team. The undrafteds bounced around too, only Romo found success with the team that signed him as a rookie. Warner got cut by GB & was out of the league for years before his unique career took off, and the Carolina QBs, Moore was cut by Dallas & Delhomme was an afterthought in NO who left via free agency. The 4th round guys are mediocre and among 3rd & 7th rounders, only Shaub has shown enough to confidently rely on him. Outside of drafting a QB in the 1st round, your chances of finding a starter afterwards are pretty slim. Unfortunately, only about one half the 1st rounders pan out, leaving a high bust rate. However, while other round QBs seem to be able to find success after failing with the original team, a 1st round bust doesn't seem to ever make it elsewhere. The 2nd round may be the same, since Favre was highly thought of enough to trade a 1st rounder for 1 year into his career, and Brees' switch of teams was fairly unique due to an injury right before he left. If he hadn't been injured, he most likely would have been tagged & traded. Brady was a once in a generation find. So where does this leave the Bills? Basically, screwed. They are not in a position to get a 1st rounder worth rolling the dice on. Bradford will either be a medical question mark or long gone by pick 9, Clausen has enough red flags that if he lasts to nine, the danger of him falling into that half bust group is too much to take a shot at him. It's going to be next to impossible for the Bills to solve the long term QB situation in this draft, the odds of finding that diamond in the rough in a later round are slim. We may just have to suffer through another year of mediocre quarterbacking & wait until next year to solve the QB situation if we can't arrange a trade with Philadelphia for either McNabb or Kolb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wilson from Gamehendge Posted March 28, 2010 Share Posted March 28, 2010 I looked at the starting QBs from last season to see where it's most likely to get your starter, here are my findings, some teams I have split the starter into 2 halves:Team/QB/Round Drafted Baltimore: Flacco 1 Bills: Edwards 3, Fitzpatrick 7 Cincinnati: Palmer 1 Cleveland: Quinn 1, Anderson 6 Denver: Orton 4 Houston: Shaub 3 Indianapolis: Manning 1 Jacksonville: Garrard 4 Kansas City: Cassel 7 Miami: Henne 2 New England: Brady 6 NY Jets: Sanchez 1 Oakland: Russell 1, Gradkowski 6 Pittsburgh: Roethlisberger 1 San Diego: Rivers 1 Tennessee: Young 1 (so was Collins, so it doesn't matter) Arizona : Warner Undrafted Atlanta: Ryan 1 Carolina: Delhomme, Moore-Both Undrafted Chicago: Cutler 1 Dallas: Romo Undrafted Detroit: Stafford 1 Green Bay: Rodgers 1 Minnesota: Favre 2 New Orleans: Brees 2 NY Giants: Manning 1 Philadelphia: McNabb 1 St. Louis: Bulger 6, Boller 1 San Francisco: Smith 1 Seattle: Hasselbeck 6 Tampa Bay: Freeman 1 (so was Leftwich) Washington: Campbell 1 Breaking it down by round, giving 50% to each QB when 2 are listed, here are the percents of the total NFL starters in 2009 by round: 1st: 54.69% 2nd: 9.38% 3rd: 4.69% 4th: 6.25% 5th: 0 6th: 10.94% 7th: 4.69% Undrafted: 9.38% Clearly your best chance of finding a starting QB is in the 1st round. Although there are 6 other rounds and countless undrafted free agents brought in every year, more than half the starters were 1st rounders. Of the 17.5 starting former 1st rounders, only Cutler & Boller weren't with the same team they started their careers with, and Cutler was because of a forced trade. What this says is if you want to find a starter, the best way is to draft him in the 1st round. Surprisingly, the 2nd highest percentage was in the 6th round, but outside of Brady the other guys are journeymen like Anderson & Gradkowski who fell into jobs after a 1st rounder floundered, or guys at the end of their careers like Hasselbeck & Bulger. The telling stat for those 6th rounders is that of the 5 players, only Brady is with the team that drafted him, the rest have all been cut at some point, including Hasselbeck who was cut & PS'd as a rookie. Next group is the tie between 2nd round & undrafted. The 2nd produced 2 stars and the yet to be determined Henne. Both stars found their best years away from the drafting team. The undrafteds bounced around too, only Romo found success with the team that signed him as a rookie. Warner got cut by GB & was out of the league for years before his unique career took off, and the Carolina QBs, Moore was cut by Dallas & Delhomme was an afterthought in NO who left via free agency. The 4th round guys are mediocre and among 3rd & 7th rounders, only Shaub has shown enough to confidently rely on him. Outside of drafting a QB in the 1st round, your chances of finding a starter afterwards are pretty slim. Unfortunately, only about one half the 1st rounders pan out, leaving a high bust rate. However, while other round QBs seem to be able to find success after failing with the original team, a 1st round bust doesn't seem to ever make it elsewhere. The 2nd round may be the same, since Favre was highly thought of enough to trade a 1st rounder for 1 year into his career, and Brees' switch of teams was fairly unique due to an injury right before he left. If he hadn't been injured, he most likely would have been tagged & traded. Brady was a once in a generation find. So where does this leave the Bills? Basically, screwed. They are not in a position to get a 1st rounder worth rolling the dice on. Bradford will either be a medical question mark or long gone by pick 9, Clausen has enough red flags that if he lasts to nine, the danger of him falling into that half bust group is too much to take a shot at him. It's going to be next to impossible for the Bills to solve the long term QB situation in this draft, the odds of finding that diamond in the rough in a later round are slim. We may just have to suffer through another year of mediocre quarterbacking & wait until next year to solve the QB situation if we can't arrange a trade with Philadelphia for either McNabb or Kolb. That just sums up as...the draft is a crapshoot. You can find a QB anywhere, really...just have to find the right one, for your system and weather conditions, and build around him...including playmakers, a stout O-Line with the right blocking scheme...and a GOOD coaching staff, that stays INTACT for more than a couple years. Good research though...good idea too...thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsPhan Posted March 28, 2010 Share Posted March 28, 2010 ...So where does this leave the Bills? Basically, screwed... First of all, OUTSTANDING research / post! I like to remind everyone that most of the greatest QB's in NFL history were not 1st round picks. But that is in NFL history. Obviously you prove that NOW, the answer to starting QB is drafting the 1st rounder, and the proof is that any other round or undrafted doesn't even come close. But I don't agree that the Bills are screwed if Nix wanted to draft his 1st round QB this year. And your numbers are my proof that Nix and the Bills are not screwed. Of your list of 17 first round QB's starting today, 12 are GOOD QB's. That comes out to a better then 70% success rate in today's NFL of starting 1st round picks. And those 12 include recent rookies drafted such as Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco. So forget about what the "experts" say about his year's group of 1st round draft-worth QB's. The experts are almost always wrong anyway. (Did any expert predict Joe Flacco to come in and start from game one as a rookie two years ago? I'm sure not.) In the simplest interpretation of your stats, if Nix takes a chance and drafts one of the kids in the first round this year, he has a 70.5% chance of that QB being at least GOOD. And he has two options to do it. The first, obviously, is to draft Bradford or Clausen with his number 9 overall pick. The second is to trade down to a lower first round pick and drafting one of the other kids like Tebow, McCoy or even Pike late in the first round, and gaining another 2nd round choice. Either way, Nix and Whaley and Gailey have good enough drafting reputations behind them that they will still improve the Bills in a major way with the rest of their draft picks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazed and Amuzed Posted March 28, 2010 Share Posted March 28, 2010 I say we draft a QB in the 5th, since that's the round that seems to be due... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted March 28, 2010 Share Posted March 28, 2010 I say we draft a QB in the 5th, since that's the round that seems to be due... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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