We Can't Take CJ Spiller

[PDaDdy]

TE that couldn't crack the starting line up?? Sure

 

As far as Wood's broken leg, Not everyone has access to your crystal ball.

 

No question, losing your LT right before the season without replacing him is retarded, but the mistake wasn't what we got for him, the mistake was not addressing the position in free agency or the draft.

 

There is definitely truth in some of what you say but IMO the biggest mistake that precipitated all others was thinking we COULD/SHOULD replace him.

[Mr. WEO]

Let's look at it indeed.

 

LT Jason Peters (Pro Bowl)

LG Andy Levitre

C Jeff Hangartner

RG Brad Butler (in his natural NFL position)

RT Langston Walker (Very serviceable career RT who was a road grader in the run game)

 

VS

 

LT (Revolving door practice squad chumps)

LG Andy Levitre

C Jeff Hangartner

RG Eric Wood (Sorry but take a look at the news. Ahead of schedule but may not be ready Week 1)

RT Brad Butler (Ouch I got hurt again this time even early trying to play above my head at RT)

 

 

So ya ...look at what we would have had. This year instead of spending #9 to replace our revolving door with one that can remember the snap count and keep a few bandits out we could be looking at a dynamic play maker. So why was getting rid of Peters good???............"huh?.....what?....oh, that's right. Forgot. "

Well, since you seem to be enamoured by "the measurement", look at the offensive performance of the Bills with Peters at his "best" (his '07 Pro Bowl year) and their performance this past season.

 

I'll make it fun for you: which is 2007 and which is 2009?

 

total offense rank 30/ypg 277/points 252/rushing 1800 yds (15th)/passing 2634 yds (30th)

 

total offense rank 30/ypg 273/points 258/rushing 1867 yds (16th)/passing 2515 yds (30th)

 

Do you like the ruler now?

 

Look, the Bills could have picked Oher last year. He would have easily replaced Peters. They didn't. They may yet pick up "a dynamic play maker" in the first round in this year's draft and pick an LT in a later round. Maybe they'll find another massive TE and turn him into a "Pro Bowl LT".

 

But as for the negative impact of JP's absence on the passing and running game of the Bills....it doesn't exist.

[KD in CA]

Can someone please reassure me that this team isn't stupid enough to blow another first round draft pick on a running back after doing so twice in the last seven years??

 

[CosmicBills]

Can someone please reassure me that this team isn't stupid enough to blow another first round draft pick on a running back after doing so twice in the last seven years??

 

A-fu*#ing-men.

 

RB is the absolute LAST position the Bills should address in this draft -- let alone at number 9.

 

RB's are overrated to begin with, and the Bills already have a more than capable tandem of Fred and Lynch. There are so many more pressing holes. So many.

 

I said it in a previous post: taking a RB in the first round will set this team back another 5 years.

[Thurman#1]

Yeah! Imagine what our offense would be like WITH Peters at LT an..........huh?.....what?....oh, that's right. Forgot.

 

Well, we can pretend we were great back then, can't we?

 

 

Oh, so we can now get rid of anybody on the team last year too because the team sucked, right? Let's trade Byrd, after all, we sucked even with him, so he must not be worth keeping.

[Thurman#1]

Well, since you seem to be enamoured by "the measurement", look at the offensive performance of the Bills with Peters at his "best" (his '07 Pro Bowl year) and their performance this past season.

 

I'll make it fun for you: which is 2007 and which is 2009?

 

total offense rank 30/ypg 277/points 252/rushing 1800 yds (15th)/passing 2634 yds (30th)

 

total offense rank 30/ypg 273/points 258/rushing 1867 yds (16th)/passing 2515 yds (30th)

 

Do you like the ruler now?

 

Look, the Bills could have picked Oher last year. He would have easily replaced Peters. They didn't. They may yet pick up "a dynamic play maker" in the first round in this year's draft and pick an LT in a later round. Maybe they'll find another massive TE and turn him into a "Pro Bowl LT".

 

But as for the negative impact of JP's absence on the passing and running game of the Bills....it doesn't exist.

 

 

 

That's crap.

 

2008: Power success. 62%. Pass protection rank, 25th in the league, 38 sacks, Adj. Sack Rate 8.1% (with J.P. Losman playing a fair amount at QB, and Duke Preston and Melvin Fowler at center, and Dockery at guard, all worse than we had this year)

2009: Power success. 50%. Pass protection rank, 32nd in the league. 46 sacks, Adj. Sack Rate 9.9%

 

 

2008: Yards/play our RBs got behind the left tackle: 5.68, 2nd in the league,

2009: Yards/play our RBs got behind the left tackle: 3.27, 26th in the league,

 

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

 

With a line greatly improved in the middle, we simply performed much worse this year on the line. Particularly when running behind the LT. It exists big-time. It's quantifiable.

[Mr. WEO]

Oh, so we can now get rid of anybody on the team last year too because the team sucked, right? Let's trade Byrd, after all, we sucked even with him, so he must not be worth keeping.

Wow, your clearly miss the point of this discussion.

 

Simply, Peters or no Peters, the result was the same. Identically. He wasn't missed.

 

 

Take all the arguing and posturing and this is what it boils down to.

 

Byrd was a key part of a significantly improved pass defense, of that there is no question. And last I heard, he was not biting the hand that feeds (or overfeeds in JP's case) him.

 

Your example is way off point.

[Thurman#1]

Wow, your clearly miss the point of this discussion.

 

Simply, Peters or no Peters, the result was the same. Identically. He wasn't missed.

 

 

Simply not true. Check my post above. Peters was missed a great deal. Even though we improved the middle of the line, the huge weakness of the OL in 2008, and improved it a good deal, the OL was much worse. That is the "Losing Peters" effect.

 

 

Take all the arguing and posturing and this is what it boils down to.

 

Byrd was a key part of a significantly improved pass defense, of that there is no question. And last I heard, he was not biting the hand that feeds (or overfeeds in JP's case) him.

 

Your example is way off point.

 

 

 

Dead on point, actually.

 

The only argument that you have (and it's the one I was replying to) was that the Bills as a team didn't do better with Peters than without him, we were still a bad team. True. But if you say that it's OK to jettison guys because with them on the team, the team didn't do better, then that clearly means everyone on this team, which got measurably worse this year, can be jettisoned because they didn't make a difference. Including Byrd.

 

 

Sorry, Astro. Your thread was very worthwhile, and though I'm not the one who changed its path, I probably should have resisted the impulse to keep talking about Peters. Sorry. I'll stop now.

 

I'm not a fan of taking Spiller, but your stuff here was thought--provoking.

[Mr. WEO]

Simply not true. Check my post above. Peters was missed a great deal. Even though we improved the middle of the line, the huge weakness of the OL in 2008, and improved it a good deal, the OL was much worse. That is the "Losing Peters" effect.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dead on point, actually.

 

The only argument that you have (and it's the one I was replying to) was that the Bills as a team didn't do better with Peters than without him, we were still a bad team. True. But if you say that it's OK to jettison guys because with them on the team, the team didn't do better, then that clearly means everyone on this team, which got measurably worse this year, can be jettisoned because they didn't make a difference. Including Byrd.

 

 

Sorry, Astro. Your thread was very worthwhile, and though I'm not the one who changed its path, I probably should have resisted the impulse to keep talking about Peters. Sorry.

 

I'm not a fan of taking Spiller, but your stuff here was thought--provoking.

Let's try again. If the O-line was "much worse" after JP left, how do you quantify this? Is it because you say it is? I gave you the results---what part of the offensive performance is "much worse"?

 

Go look up the performance of the defense against the pass last year versus this year. It is not "measurably worse" (what are you measuring???)--in fact it is better. So why would I want to dump Byrd?

[BillsVet]

the refreshing thing is chan was talking about Running backs and Wide recievers which is a nice change then Dickie talking about db's and holdong teams down and how hard it is to win .

 

What's the difference between taking RBs/WRs or DBs? They're guys who play off the ball and typically don't control their own destiny on the field. Skill players are sell tickets and can run fast, but taking a RB/WR/CB/S/TE in Round 1 is an epic failure at OBD.

 

From 2004-2008, the Bills used 8 out of 9 of their 1st/2nd round picks on skill players. Their lone line pick was McCargo. That's why this team does not win battles at the LOS, and Spiller does nothing to address that. I'm content with Jackson/Lynch at RB and a pick at OLT or NT.

[thewildrabbit]

Dan LeFevour QB Central Michigan won't make it till the 3rd round,someone will take him in the 2nd or even the 1st round.

 

There is a shortage of QB's with a decent rating in this years draft and some boards actually have this guy as the #1 QB ahead of Bradford because of Bradford's injuries, they just don't trust that shoulder.

[Fan in Chicago]

What's the difference between taking RBs/WRs or DBs? They're guys who play off the ball and typically don't control their own destiny on the field. Skill players are sell tickets and can run fast, but taking a RB/WR/CB/S/TE in Round 1 is an epic failure at OBD.

 

From 2004-2008, the Bills used 8 out of 9 of their 1st/2nd round picks on skill players. Their lone line pick was McCargo. That's why this team does not win battles at the LOS, and Spiller does nothing to address that. I'm content with Jackson/Lynch at RB and a pick at OLT or NT.

I agree with your post almost in its entirety. The only small difference is that in some situations, picking a good skill player may be justified. That is if the team is set on the lines and the QB position. However, we are not (ofcourse) and hence this is not a year we should use high picks on skill players.

[BillsVet]

I agree with your post almost in its entirety. The only small difference is that in some situations, picking a good skill player may be justified. That is if the team is set on the lines and the QB position. However, we are not (ofcourse) and hence this is not a year we should use high picks on skill players.

 

I'll admit, I laughed when Tennessee selected Chris Johnson in 2008. But upon closer inspection, the Titans had a strong OL with a real LT in Michael Roos, and could afford to take a back. Their defense wasn't shabby either and the next season they went 13-3.

 

I can't stand the guy, but respect what Bill Parcells does when rebuilding the Dolfelons. They re-signed Vernon Carey, drafted Jake Long, and signed Jake Grove. Those are solid OT's and a C. They picked Dlineman and are still fortifying their front 7, despite picks at CB last year.

 

It's cliche, but building from inside-out is how it's done. Dick Levy did it the other way, and it gave us more mediocrity.

[Bob in STL]

I love BOTH of our RBs. If we had an OL that could open a freakin hole and a QB that presented a deep threat these guys would be the talk of the NFL. That being said CJ Spiller is my kind of RB. A guy offcially with 4.3 and unofficially 4.2 speed who is a shifty dynamic play maker. Just like QB. There are many ways to be successful but just like a QB with a canon for a throwing arm I LOVE RBs with speed. Speed Speed and more speed. Our guys are 4.4 4.5 fast. This guy is potentially 4.2 fast. This guy brings play making ability to the rushing game, the passing game and special teams.

 

Imagine if we didn't get rid of Peters and didn't have an enormous gapping hole at LT. We would be falling all over ourselves at the opportunity to draft best player available and potentially get Claussen, Spiller or Bryant or others!!! Imagine trading down a few spots, getting an additional pick and still getting one of those 3.

 

 

Ya....we are better for the Peters trade....RIIIIIIIIGHT! I like the rookies we got but basically we gave a way a proven, now 3 time probowl, LT and got in return an OG with a severly broken leg that might not ever be the same or be ready for the regular season and a TE that couldn't crack the starting line up. WAY TO GO FRONT OFFICE!!!!!!

 

 

I think that in the long run Wood will be the better player for us. I like his skill, his maturity, his leadership and his attitude. Lets not base the trade results on one season and a random event like the broken leg. Had Peters broke his leg would you be ready to declare that the Bills got the best of the trade? Lets look at this trade 5 years down the road and see.

 

Nelson looks like a good TE to me. How can you criticize a fourth round pick for not cracking the starting line up? When Nelson did start start he graded out well. He needs work on his blocking but I like what I saw overall. He knows how to get open and he has excellent speed and hands. He could be great in the red zone if we can ever build a complete offense.

 

Look forward.

[mob16151]

Dan LeFevour QB Central Michigan won't make it till the 3rd round,someone will take him in the 2nd or even the 1st round.

 

 

While I can maybe see LeFevour late in the second. If you think he's going in the first your smoking crack.

[Kingfish]

I didn't realize that Spiller had 21 touchdowns that were longer than 50 yards at Clemson. Wow!

[T master]

Wrong.

 

I put a Grab on Spiller in our Simulator and here is the result:

 

1 9 Buffalo C.J. Spiller RBF Clemson

2 41 Buffalo Vladimir Ducasse OG Massachusetts

3 72 Buffalo Dan LeFevour QB Central Michigan

4 107 Buffalo Mike Neal DE34 Purdue P2

5 140 Buffalo Lindsey Witten OLB34 Connecticut

6 178 Buffalo Eric Olsen OC Notre Dame

6 192 Buffalo Blair White WRF Michigan State

7 209 Buffalo Kion Wilson ILB South Florida

7 216 Buffalo Travis Ivey DT34 Maryland

 

This particular draft was weak at DT, so I adjusted by Grabbing Linval Joseph in RD5. The result:

 

1 9 Buffalo C.J. Spiller RBF Clemson

2 41 Buffalo Vladimir Ducasse OG Massachusetts

3 72 Buffalo Dan LeFevour QB Central Michigan

4 107 Buffalo Mike Neal DE34 Purdue P2

5 140 Buffalo Linval Joseph DT34 East Carolina

6 178 Buffalo Eric Olsen OC Notre Dame

6 192 Buffalo Jammie Kirlew OLB34 Indiana

7 209 Buffalo Freddie Barnes WRF Bowling Green

7 216 Buffalo Kion Wilson ILB South Florida

 

I prefer the second one even though I like White and Ivey. Getting Joseph, the strongest NT in bench press (tied with Petrus) and one of the most explosive (vertical jump was top 3), makes it tons better in our area of need. Many of you like Freddie Barnes, and Jammie Kirlew would provide motivation for Maybin--he'd likely be the last one to leave the film study room and the practice field.

 

 

what kind of simulator is this ?? do you drive it or what ?? how do you know who is left after a pick . cause those picks you have don't make any sense at all for what we need . and the second one isn't any better than the first !!!!!!!

[Buffaloed in Pa]

Linval Joseph will be gone way before this. I had us taking him in the 3rd round in my draft. Too big Too fast Too strong. Gone.

[Astrobot]

Sorry, Astro. Your thread was very worthwhile, and though I'm not the one who changed its path, I probably should have resisted the impulse to keep talking about Peters. Sorry. I'll stop now.

 

I'm not a fan of taking Spiller, but your stuff here was thought--provoking.

No problem. I wanted to start a discussion.

[bkc]

OK, Now we've got:

 

1 9 Buffalo C.J. Spiller RBF Clemson

2 41 Buffalo Cam Thomas DT34 North Carolina

3 72 Buffalo Jared Veldheer OT Hillsdale -- tied for top time in the three-cone drill (7.40 seconds) and 20-yard shuttle

4 107 Buffalo Mike Neal DE34 Purdue P2

5 140 Buffalo Linval Joseph DT34 East Carolina

6 178 Buffalo Chris Scott OT Tennessee -- Feature player on line that allowed fewest sacks in SEC

6 192 Buffalo Jammie Kirlew OLB34 Indiana

7 209 Buffalo Marcus Easley WRF Connecticut

7 216 Buffalo Kion Wilson ILB South Florida

 

Would you rather have 3 DT34's or Dexter McCluster in RD2? He's available...

Would you rather have 2 OT's or take Zac Robinson QB at the RD6#178?He's available...

what about fox in round three