Mr. WEO Posted March 23, 2010 Posted March 23, 2010 I actually know what you are talking about. Of course, there isn't a perfect statistical equation or approach. It is a work-in-progress. Yes, an aggregator of opinions is all the information that I can use; however, my prediction of where people will fall in the draft can be statistically measured off of the aggregate opinions. It doesn't make my predictions more accurate, but it will give some insight into the accuracy of the pro and media people's thoughts.Again, it is a school project. There are many gaping holes, but these holes are accounted for in my paper. That's pretty much it. Performing a statistical analysis on opinions and guesses of others is of dubious relevance. It certainly can't give us any power to better predict the pick--it only addresses who others think we (and other teams) will pick. If every published mock was in identical agreement, it still be a collection of meaningless predictions.
Estro Posted March 23, 2010 Posted March 23, 2010 With the 9th pick in the 2010 draft the Buffalo Bills select................................. Sergio Kindle, LB, Texas
mconwxdr Posted March 24, 2010 Posted March 24, 2010 Nice work Wizard. As a meteorologist with some statistical training, I appreciate the attempt to predict the unpredictable. But one thing that bothers me is that many of the mock drafts aren't truly independent (a few posters brought this up in a different way). For instance, I find it funny how everybody put Bradford #1 after it came out that Adam Schefter, a few weeks ago, said he thinks the Rams could make him #1 overall. Before that, most of the mock drafts I saw had him going to WASH or even falling to us. You probably know to account for this already, but I think this is a big limiting factor with applying some of the statistical tools to these data. Having said that, it's some very nice work and a refreshing attempt to try to gain more insight into the process more than pure speculation.
flomoe Posted March 24, 2010 Posted March 24, 2010 This is an excellent post from all contributors. I usually don't read all the replies to a poster but this one was too interesting to stop reading. Great work by wizard, bob, newcombo, thurman and juan. I hope somehow this post gets put into the keeper section so that we all can follow the updates and changes as we get closer to the draft. Thanks and awesome work so far wizard.
Billsguy Posted March 24, 2010 Posted March 24, 2010 That's pretty much it. Performing a statistical analysis on opinions and guesses of others is of dubious relevance. It certainly can't give us any power to better predict the pick--it only addresses who others think we (and other teams) will pick. If every published mock was in identical agreement, it still be a collection of meaningless predictions. Of course its meaningless (especially when the Bills are concerned) but it was an interesting exercise. However, the opinions of mock drafters in large enough numbers would outperform randomness IMO. It sure beats reading about why the Bills should draft Tebow by miles!
Billy in 4C Posted March 24, 2010 Posted March 24, 2010 Go work for the Bills. Somehow, I doubt they employ any techniques as sophisticated as that.
BillsCelticsAngelsBama Posted March 24, 2010 Posted March 24, 2010 With the 9th pick in the 2010 draft the Buffalo Bills select................................. Sergio Kindle, LB, Texas Really would prefer McClain or Morgan if we decide to go "stud" on defense.
Canadian Bills Fan Posted March 24, 2010 Posted March 24, 2010 Great effort! Thank you for taking the time to compile your data and to offer your explinations! Excellent read!
BB Fan 4 LIFE Posted March 25, 2010 Posted March 25, 2010 Go work for the Bills. Somehow, I doubt they employ any techniques as sophisticated as that. I'm picturing a blindfolded monkey, throwing darts at a draft board on the wall.
Billy in 4C Posted March 25, 2010 Posted March 25, 2010 I'm picturing a blindfolded monkey, throwing darts at a draft board on the wall. Haha. I'm not so sure... even the monkey with darts, blindfolded, would have outpicked the war room in the last decade. That may be a good strategy going forward.
BuffaloBill Posted March 25, 2010 Posted March 25, 2010 That was a hell of an effort! Thanks for taking the time and being so transparent in your presentation. It's nice to read an intelligent post like this. I've copied it and will see how things stack up on draft day! I'm sure the nattering nabobs will weigh in and challenge it but I for one appreciate your work. Agree and well said.
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