What The Bills Will Do in Round 1

[BillsfaninFl]

I don't think Dan Williams is as big a reach as you indicate. He won't get past Miami at #12. If three offensive tackles are selected before #9, Dan Williams may be our pick. But I agree that the most likely selection is an offensive tackle. It depends on how Nix has the third, fourth, and fifth offensive tackles on the board rated because I'm sure at least two of them will be taken before we get our choice.

 

Williams is Pat Kirwin's latest mock draft selection by the Bills. He's not a reach at all.

[Bill from NYC]

Most people feel the draft is deep in our positions of need OL and DL. This is the perfect senario to trade down and draft a skill player.

 

Drafting skill players is what is wrong with this team. Evans, Parrish, Whitner, Youboty, Simpson, Losman, Hardy, McKelvin, Lynch, and Simpson are some of the players that the Bills wasted precious early round draft resources on in recent years. Doing so caused them to be flawed and very weak on the OL and front 7.

Until this team is strong it will continue to be a laughing stock, and the very last thing it needs is another first round skill player.

 

Jmo.

[Chandler#81]

I agree. I'm on the McClain bandwagon. ILB and OLB is a huge weakness for us. ..

 

 

Not necessarily. While we rarely saw the 4-3, Tampa 2 perform well, our LB's are sure tacklers and quick. Now mix in a likely position change for Maybin, Schobel & Ellis for the 3-4, and we have an abundance of new pairings to choose from, inside. JMO, but I don't think LB is a position of need. We just had to scrap the previous scheme.

[Philo]

How did you come up with these percentages and then I will tell you. I believe you are close as far as how the fans feel.

 

As I stated earlier, I just came up with these numbers based on my opinions. Just my two cents on the issue.

 

You seem to have included one low-percentage case (trading down) and left out three or four others with equally low but non-zero percentages of happening. It would be nice if GMs were predictable, but they're not, and if you're going to put numbers on chances, you oughta include all the things with much of a chance of happening. What would you have put as the chances of picking a safety in 2006, and yet it happened.

 

Why limit it to Clausen. Some think Clausen is better than Bradford. There is a chance that Bradford falls and Clausen gets picked up early . If it happens there's certainly a good chance we'd take him.

 

McClain, as many noted.

 

Dez Bryant if the guys we like early are all gone.

 

And trading up, most likely for one of the QBs if one guy falls to 4th or later, would be a possibility, though I suppose we might also trade up for Okung if he fell a bit.

 

Those are the four low-percentage chance things that still might happen, Bradford, Dez Bryant, McClain and trading up. And I would argue that each is just as likely to happen as trading down.

 

I, for one, highly doubt that Bradford falls to #9, so I left him out. But thats just my take on it based on what I've heard about him.

 

McClain and Bryant would go under the 'stretch/reach pick category. Sorry, I didn't list every possible player there that I thought would qualify. It is open to intrepretation though.

 

As for trading up, I never really thought of that as an option. I mean, the Bills COULD do it, but I don't see Nix doing it as he has stated we are building through the draft and trading up would most likely cost us valuable picks.

 

Again, just my two cents.

[dpberr]

I have a feeling that the Bills will either go homerun (trade up for Okung) or trade down. As things are shaking out after the Combine and the draft, I don't see the Bills staying pat at #9. I don't think they like their choices there. You either get the very best tackle or you load up on picks and plug a few holes.

[thebandit27]

Just a few things to keep in mind, trend-wise:

 

Every year, there is a top crop of 5 to 8 players that get drafted before everyone else, regardless of position, need, and/or trades. This year, there are 7 of these players; thus they'll comprise the top 7 picks. Those players, in no particular order, are:

 

Sam Bradford

Jimmy Clausen

Russell Okung

Brian Bulaga

Ndamukong Suh

Gerald McCoy

Eric Berry

 

So the question becomes two-fold: (1) Who will Oakland take at 8 (I'm currently of the mindset that they'll go with Bruce Campbell)? and (2) What remaining player has the most value at 9?

 

I've seen people mention McClain, but I am totally against that pick. It's not because I don't think he'll be a good NFL player, I do think that. I just happen to believe that (1) a 3-4 ILB won't have the level of impact that justifies the 9th overall pick--look at Patrick Willis in SF...phenomenal player, but their defense still finished 15th overall in the league last year despite also boasting a pro bowl NT, and (2) there are other ILBs that will be equally (if not moreso) effective in the NFL as McClain that can be had later on in the draft (like Washington's Donald Butler--who's college production is at least as impressive as McClain's, and is a much more explosive athlete).

 

My opinion is that, at the #9 pick, you need to take the guy that will help your team the most. I'd love for it to be a QB, as that's by far the most important position on the team, but I believe there won't be a QB available at 9 that the front office feels confident enough in to pick at that spot. So I think the focus should shift to one of two places:

 

- An OT, if Trent Williams were still available he'd be my choice.

- A rush LB like Sergio Kindle, an ideal conversion guy that has played both DE and OLB, and who can wreak havoc in a 3-4 (NFL Network's Mike Mayock agrees, calling Kindle a "Demarcus Ware type talent")

 

Just my 1 cent.

[peanuts]

I don't think Dan Williams is as big a reach as you indicate. He won't get past Miami at #12. If three offensive tackles are selected before #9, Dan Williams may be our pick. But I agree that the most likely selection is an offensive tackle. It depends on how Nix has the third, fourth, and fifth offensive tackles on the board rated because I'm sure at least two of them will be taken before we get our choice.

 

I agee with you on going with D. Williams.. He is not a reach and could anchor the D.line for many years.. It's a solid pick then in the second & third round & get the best OT with both picks ...

[SouthGeorgiaBillsFan]

Not necessarily. While we rarely saw the 4-3, Tampa 2 perform well, our LB's are sure tacklers and quick. Now mix in a likely position change for Maybin, Schobel & Ellis for the 3-4, and we have an abundance of new pairings to choose from, inside. JMO, but I don't think LB is a position of need. We just had to scrap the previous scheme.

 

The scheme wasn't the problem. Fatigue was. We had decent personnel for that scheme and with an offense that showed any signs of competency could have been very strong on d. If there was a weakness personnel wise, it was without question our LBs. I couldn't disagree with you more, and I'm not sure you understand the dynamics of a football game.

[R. Rich]

Drafting skill players is what is wrong with this team. Evans, Parrish, Whitner, Youboty, Simpson, Losman, Hardy, McKelvin, Lynch, and Simpson are some of the players that the Bills wasted precious early round draft resources on in recent years. Doing so caused them to be flawed and very weak on the OL and front 7.

Until this team is strong it will continue to be a laughing stock, and the very last thing it needs is another first round skill player.

 

Jmo.

 

Nah. Just draft a QB. They will make the O line block better. They will also make the LBs bigger and tougher against the run, not to mention they'll create a 3-4 NT stout enough to clog the rush lanes.

[T master]

I'll take.

 

I agree with your percentages, and think that drafting beef early and often is the smartest thing to do at this point. Tebow fans see him now in the 3rd round, and I think that is accurate. This would allow us to take a LT with our 1st, and maybe a big NT with our second.

 

I feel better with Nix and Whaley running the show, but Modrak is still the VP of scouting, and his glorious tenure has graced us with such gems as Mike Williams, Donte Whitner, and James Hardy.

 

I get the dis on Williams & Whitner , but man at least give Hardy a chance . It usually takes 3 yrs to develope a receiver , he's been here 2 & was hurt almost all of one !! IMO got to at least give him a chance (what a tough crowd)

[R. Rich]

I get the dis on Williams & Whitner , but man at least give Hardy a chance . It usually takes 3 yrs to develope a receiver , he's been here 2 & was hurt almost all of one !! IMO got to at least give him a chance (what a tough crowd)

 

 

Hahaha!!! Good luck w/ that. "Give him a chance,".....hahahahaha!!!!!

[Chandler#81]

The scheme wasn't the problem. Fatigue was. We had decent personnel for that scheme and with an offense that showed any signs of competency could have been very strong on d. If there was a weakness personnel wise, it was without question our LBs. I couldn't disagree with you more, and I'm not sure you understand the dynamics of a football game.

 

Well fatigue doesn't answer not being able to get off the field on 3rd down in the first quarter -you know, a dynamic of the game. Poz & Mitchell would likely start on every NFL team. Buggs & Harris showed strong promise and Ellison has developed into a dependable player, who wouldn't be out of work long if he were encouraged to leave. Add in the speed of Maybin and Ellis and Schobel's prowess, and -again- IMO, more focus could be channeled to the lines.

[Philo]

Well fatigue doesn't answer not being able to get off the field on 3rd down in the first quarter -you know, a dynamic of the game. Poz & Mitchell would likely start on every NFL team. Buggs & Harris showed strong promise and Ellison has developed into a dependable player, who wouldn't be out of work long if he were encouraged to leave. Add in the speed of Maybin and Ellis and Schobel's prowess, and -again- IMO, more focus could be channeled to the lines.

 

I agree with that statement. As much help as our linebacker corps needs, I think more attention should be focused on both lines. We may not have pro-bowlers, but I think we have more options at LB. That being said, we should still draft 'em, just not until we get some lineman in here first.

[JohnC]

This is what I'd like to see, not what I think they'll do. Trade back with the Bronco's and pick up a fourth rounder. Then take Dan Williams.

 

I would absolutely HATE to see Miami walk away from day one with Williams!!

 

There is no doubt that Dan Williams would be a worthy pick. But it is much easier to find a bulky NT/DT than it is to find a LT. If Bulaga or Trent Williams are on the board (assumption Okung would be gone) I would advocate picking the offensive lineman. In addition, I wouldn't be against taking OT/OG Rodger Saffold from Indiana with our second pick, assuming he is still there.

 

There comes a point when this team has to seriously and finally address the OL. The Bills will still have multiple needs no matter what strategy the front office takes in this draft. It is past due to get this line issue resolved so they can address other needs this year and the upcoming years.

[Doc]

There is no doubt that Dan Williams would be a worthy pick. But it is much easier to find a bulky NT/DT than it is to find a LT. If Bulaga or Trent Williams are on the board (assumption Okung would be gone) I would advocate picking the offensive lineman. In addition, I wouldn't be against taking OT/OG Rodger Saffold from Indiana with our second pick, assuming he is still there.

 

There comes a point when this team has to seriously and finally address the OL. The Bills will still have multiple needs no matter what strategy the front office takes in this draft. It is past due to get this line issue resolved so they can address other needs this year and the upcoming years.

I agree that going LT in the first is what they'll probably have to do. They can't risk waiting until the 2nd round for Saffold, and Veldheer looks like a project. I like Trent Williams at 9th overall.

[tonyjustbcuz]

I have been doing a lot of thinking about what the Bills may do in Round 1. There has been plenty of speculation here at TBD and I have found a few common ideas that are plausible and have given them a percentage chance of them happening.

 

70% - Bills draft a LT (Bulaga, Williams, etc.)

 

15% - Bills draft Jimmy Clausen.

 

10% - Bills trade down to pick up an extra pick in the 2nd or 3rd round.

 

5% - Bills take a reach/non-priority player (i.e. Dan Williams, Tim Tebow or C.J. Spillings)

 

This is just my opinion on what goes down with pick #9. I think Nix is smart enough to know we need a LT, but I think he could still go for a QB like Clausen or even trade down. Not forgetting history, I felt compelled to throw in the 'we make a stupid pick' option.

 

Have I got my numbers all wrong? Comments? Questions? I'm open for some discussion.

 

 

 

Good job! It's fun to speculate, so I'll play along and give it my spin...

 

40% - Bills trade up to get either Suh, Bradford, Russel Okung (sp?), or J. Clausen

40% - Bills stay right where they are in pick the highest rated player on the board that is either a OLT, QB, DT/NT...My

guess would be a OLT unless Clausen or Bradford slides down to us.

10% - Bills trade pick for a QB on another team's roster and also receives the other teams pick somewhere in rounds 3-5.

10% - Bills move down to the 15th-22nd pick in the draft and receive another team's 2nd round pick for our 9th overall

pick. We pick up a OT in the 1st round and either Leflavor, Pike, or Tebow as our QB in the 2nd round.

0% - I can't see the Bills spending the 1st round pick on a reach! They won't be taking C.J. Spiller in the 1st round as the

round stands unless they trade multiple players on their roser including Lynch and maybe Whitner for a 1st rounder.

They may feel inclined to get RB C.J. Spiller, but should probably stick to filling which ever one of the Big 3 needs

that they haven't filled already in the draft.

[JohnC]

I agree that going LT in the first is what they'll probably have to do. They can't risk waiting until the 2nd round for Saffold, and Veldheer looks like a project. I like Trent Williams at 9th overall.

 

I wholeheartedly agree with you that you can't risk waiting until the second round to get a LT. If Saffold is available in the second round then that is a bonus. There are decent big NTs who might not be as athletic as Dan Williams, a first round talent, but they would adequately fill the NT role. One of the best interior linemen the Bills ever had was Pat Williams, a draft free agent.

 

Under the clueless Levy era the Bills spent big money and wasted money on free agent offensive linemen. If during his stint if he would have drafted quality linemen in the early part of his drafts this team wouldn't have to repeatedly work to rebuild a dysfunctional line. The LT position is a critical position that is very difficult to find the talent to play. If you are in position to get one, then do so and move on to filling other needs.

 

If Clausen and Bradford are available for us to pick as our franchise qb I would be all for it. But the odds are they won't. The next best option is to get the LT. Not drafting Ohrer last year after trading Peters was foolish. It set us back and took away our drafting flexibility for this year.

[Frit0 Bandit0]

punt

 

LMAO!

[Pete]

I have been doing a lot of thinking about what the Bills may do in Round 1. There has been plenty of speculation here at TBD and I have found a few common ideas that are plausible and have given them a percentage chance of them happening.

 

70% - Bills draft a LT (Bulaga, Williams, etc.)

 

15% - Bills draft Jimmy Clausen.

 

10% - Bills trade down to pick up an extra pick in the 2nd or 3rd round.

 

5% - Bills take a reach/non-priority player (i.e. Dan Williams, Tim Tebow or C.J. Spillings)

Pretty close IMO. I think there is a small chance we draft Dez White too, if there is a run on tackles before us. And I think there is a better chance that we draft Williams or Spillings then 5%. And drafting Tebow at the 9 pick is retarded, but nothing surprises me anymore from the front office. Bruce Cambell and or Anthony Davis I don't see at 9- because I think Nix is emphasizing production in college career

[spartacus]

Not necessarily. While we rarely saw the 4-3, Tampa 2 perform well, our LB's are sure tacklers and quick. Now mix in a likely position change for Maybin, Schobel & Ellis for the 3-4, and we have an abundance of new pairings to choose from, inside. JMO, but I don't think LB is a position of need. We just had to scrap the previous scheme.

 

recycling junk does not make it gold

 

Maybin and Ellis suck at DE which they have played their whole careers.

 

now they will be better after one off-season of playing a new position.

 

blind hope