Who did we think would be a bust from the 2009 draft revisited.

[Steely Dan]

http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/index.php?...92&hl=ayers

 

It's in the archive so I can't add anymore posts but it's interesting to look at now.

 

In the voting on the first 16 players drafted the biggest predicted bust was Heyward-Bey with 28.57% and second was Mark Sanchez with 19.05%. (Looks like the Sanchez prediction was way off, but since the Jests are an AFCE rival I'm not surprised.)

 

In the voting on the second 16 drafted the biggest predicted bust was Josh Freeman with 31.43% and second was Beanie Wells with 10.48%. Also, Percy Harvin was predicted to bust by 8.57% of those voting.

[Steely Dan]

Some quotes from the thread;

 

Since the most choices a poll can have is 20 I've split the votes between the first 16 and last 16.

 

 

Have fun and defend your choices, please.

 

For choices 1-16 I'm picking Brian Cushing. He was taken off the field often on third downs in college. He has a myriad of injuries in his history. I normally won't count injuries as a reason for a guy to bust unless they have a history going into the draft. I'm guessing he'll be out of the league in three years.

 

My second choice for 1-16 is Darrius Heyward-Bey. The first reason is Al Davis drafted him. The next reason is he seems more like a track star than a receiver. Davis goes gaga over speed and it blinds him to some negatives that would make a slower receiver a third round pick. JMO

 

For choices 17-32 it's a coin flip between Robert Ayers, who I think a lot of people have overrated and Michael Oher who I think will have too many distractions in the next couple of years. After the flip of the coin it comes down to Robert Ayers.

 

Ayers has only 8 career sacks coming into the NFL. For a guy who is listed as a possible DE that's not very impressive. He's also listed as a possible DT and I don't see him excelling in the NFL at the position. I think he'll be easily fooled by the offenses and will be taken advantage of and pushed around by NFL OL. Just a guy I have a gut feeling about.

 

Having said that, he'll probably be a HOF. My gut reactions have a poor record.

 

 

Andre Smith for the obvious reasons in the top 16.

 

Josh Freeman in the bottom 16. See if this sounds familiar...a mobile QB in college with a rocket arm whose team had a mediocre, at best, record. Very inconsistent in college.

 

 

I have to go with Stafford, knowing this isn't fair to him. The Detroit Lions are awful and haven't shown the ability to get better. Stafford without protection (like anyone without protection) will be a bust. I'm also factoring the unrealistically high expectations of being a first round pick. This isn't fair to the player..but life isn't fair.

 

 

A huge difference is Freeman played in one of the elite conferences in football while our former 1st rounder played in Conference USA. That's a big difference. I think if they don't rush Freeman, he will be a pretty good QB.

 

I think Sanchez is going to be a bust. Not Ryan Leaf like, but just another average QB and no better than Ratliff, who they traded to get him.

 

and it's tough to really say a last 1st rounder will be a bust because it's kinda of a crapshot. If I had to pick, i'd go with Vontae Davis. He was nothing special in college, has attitude issues, and is known for haven't bad footwork. I'm looking forward to a Lee Evans-Vontae Davis matchup.

 

 

All three first round QB's aren't year one starters, IMO, but I think all three will be thrown to the wolves early. I heard somewhere that QB's who come out after their junior seasons have a high bust rate in the NFL.

 

 

Great topic.

 

I'm going with Heyward-Bey and Orakpo (a/k/a "No-sack-po") for the top 16.

 

Heyward-Bey because I have my doubts as to weather he's capable of operating in an NFL offense, and because I think Al Davis will force Tom Cable's hand in not only starting him too early, but also in starting JaMarcus Russell instead of Jeff Garcia.

 

Orakpo because I think he lacks a great 1st step, doesn't bring his 'A' game consistently, and has a tendancy to disappear for long stretches.

 

In the back half I'll go with Chris Wells and Robert Ayers.

 

Wells because--although he is immensely talented--he's a guy that is at his worst in the biggest games, and I figure if a guy can't get up for a big-time game in college, he's going to have effort issues in the pros.

 

Ayers because I always am wary of guys that have little-to-no production in college that all of a sudden are 1st round picks because of their combine workouts. I know there are some on this board that really like him, I'm just not one of them

 

 

I voted for Darrius Heyward and Josh Freeman, I see they were both pretty popular.

 

 

Top 5: Dirty Sanchez

6-10: Darius Heward-Bey (as a mid-late 1st he wouldn't have busted. As #7 overall, not worth it)

11-15: Aaron Maybin (as both a Bills and PSU fan it pains me to say that

16-20: Josh Freeman

21-26: Percy Harvin

27-32: Beanie Wells

[Steely Dan]

My thoughts were somewhat similar to yours. My first choice for 1-16 was Heyward-Bey, for the reasons you mentioned. My second was Sanchez; whom I have a bad feeling about.

 

For 17 - 32, I voted for Robert Ayers. The low sack total didn't impress me. Neither did his highlight reel. I mean, those are supposed to be the guy's best plays over his college career. I didn't see enough there to warrant first round status.

 

 

Knowshon Moreno RB

 

 

Maybin and Wood

 

 

As a Georgia Bulldogs fan down here in Atlanta, I really feel Stafford has bust written all over him. He was extremely inconsistent in his decision making and his year to year improvement was not what you'd expect from someone as drenched in kool-aid as he was/is.

 

I think most Bulldog fans were borderline disappointed with Stafford's college career and it has to mean something for a 1st overall pick's college fans to be a little surprised at the love he is getting. At his best he's amazing, however he only plays at his best a very small percentage of the time.

 

 

Ohh...I disagree there. I think Moreno could be very good.

 

I also don't see Heyward as a bust. I understand everyone voted for him because the Raiders took him 20+ picks too early, but I think he'll be a solid player. Of course I'm not one of those people who labels any top 10 pick a 'bust' if he's not a HOFer.

 

Josh Freeman? Absolute bust. Horrible decision by the Bucs.

 

 

I went with Larry English and Robert Ayers. English is going to be slapped around by NFL OT's and he also will not be able to hold up in coverage. I hope he isn't their contingency plan for letting Merriman walk. I picked Ayers because he was picked by a team that is now going to run a 3-4. He's SURELY NOT a LB, he's not a 3-4 DE, and he's not going to make it as a DT. If he would've been drafted by a team that runs a 4-3 he would've had a better chance to atleast be a solid contributor at the LDE spot, but he's not a 3-4 type of player. He'll be looking for a new team when his rookie contract expires or sooner and Mayock will be wondering what kind of drugs he was on praising the guy like he was the next Reggie White.

 

 

Back, BACK foul Demon!!

 

Heyward-Bey would have a much better chance with any team except the Faders. That's why Crabtree got giddy when he found out the Faders passed on him.

 

 

 

 

 

Since he was taken by the Jests it's really a good feeling!

 

The Jests would have been much better off saving the draft picks they spent on Sanchez and giving Clemens a year to prove himself. If he effed up they would have a much deeper pool of QB's to choose from in 2010. I also think he'll bust and I shall laugh heartily!

 

 

I find my comment on Sanchez to be really funny.

[billsfan89]

I wanted the Bills to draft Orakpo over Maybin I think you can look at my posts from that time and it will back that up (I hope so at least). I also had a bad feeling about Sanchez and wanted the Bills to draft Oher either at 11 or via a trade up. I also was completely wrong about Byrd who I thought was a wasted pick.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Maybin the fourth most voted for in the bust category. By Bills fans.

 

Why was he drafted again?

[Buffalonian-at-Heart]

I think the jury is still out of Sanchez. He obviously benefited from a great defense, a real good running game, and excellent coaching approach. 53.8 completion %, 12TD and 20 Int., 2444 yds, and a 63% QB rating isn't exactly impressive even for a rookie. Heck Stafford had almost identical stats in 10 games played.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I think the jury is still out of Sanchez. He obviously benefited from a great defense, a real good running game, and excellent coaching approach. 53.8 completion %, 12TD and 20 Int., 2444 yds, and a 63% QB rating isn't exactly impressive even for a rookie. Heck Stafford had almost identical stats in 10 games played.

 

And what many believe to be the best offensive line in football.

 

I also think the Jets (Schottenheimer) did a good job of "coaching him up," much like the Steelers did a good job with a rookie Big Ben.

[Steely Dan]

I was wrong about Cushing and Oher, but I was right about Heyward-Bey and Ayers.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I was wrong about Cushing and Oher, but I was right about Heyward-Bey and Ayers.

 

I was a huge Ayers fan and still am.

 

H2O hit the nail on the head on his post. Ayers was taken by the wrong team.

 

He's a natural 275 pound defensive end with great strength at the point of attack who was asked to lose weight to play linebacker.

 

I was sorry to see him drafted by Denver. Ayers IMO is a natural 4-3 defensive end.

[manbeast]

I think the jury is still out of Sanchez. He obviously benefited from a great defense, a real good running game, and excellent coaching approach. 53.8 completion %, 12TD and 20 Int., 2444 yds, and a 63% QB rating isn't exactly impressive even for a rookie. Heck Stafford had almost identical stats in 10 games played.

I think Stafford is the better QB by far. Not that Sanchez is bad but Stafford is going to be great if DET doesn't screw him up.

[Thoner7]

I wanted the Bills to draft Orakpo over Maybin I think you can look at my posts from that time and it will back that up (I hope so at least). I also had a bad feeling about Sanchez and wanted the Bills to draft Oher either at 11 or via a trade up. I also was completely wrong about Byrd who I thought was a wasted pick.

 

I shat myself when we picked Maybin. You could go back about a year and a half and find my rippings on Maybin. I still cant believe he was a day 1 pick. But I guess it only takes one team.....

[Steely Dan]

I was a huge Ayers fan and still am.

 

H2O hit the nail on the head on his post. Ayers was taken by the wrong team.

 

He's a natural 275 pound defensive end with great strength at the point of attack who was asked to lose weight to play linebacker.

 

I was sorry to see him drafted by Denver. Ayers IMO is a natural 4-3 defensive end.

 

I don't think it matters. I still believe he's a one hit wonder. It appears Denver is using him as a DE/OLB at 274 pounds.

 

I shat myself when we picked Maybin. You could go back about a year and a half and find my rippings on Maybin. I still cant believe he was a day 1 pick. But I guess it only takes one team.....

 

Do you honestly believe that if Buffalo hadn't taken him he wouldn't have been a day 1 pick? Do you think he deserves at least one more year before people start making definitive statements.