Where Do Great LT's Come From?

[Astrobot]

http://tisdelstirades.blogspot.com/

 

This is totally worth a read if you are thinking of any pick other than LT in the first round.

 

Astro

[bills_red]

I am sure if you show bust it will be long too.

[PushthePile]

http://tisdelstirades.blogspot.com/

 

This is totally worth a read if you are thinking of any pick other than LT in the first round.

 

Astro

Good read, thanks. Now lets hope someone drops.

[BillsVet]

Excellent read from a blogger. I particularly liked this quote:

 

"However, tackles picked in later rounds simply do not have the physical tools to play LT at the highest level. Not a single third-to seventh-round tackle, left or right, has made the Pro Bowl in the past ten years."

 

Sure, Peters, Gaither, and Donald Penn came from those late round or the UDFA ranks, but in 10 years that's all there is to show for all those OT's. Not very good odds, but some will cling to the notion that Demetrius Bell or Jamon Meredith will suffice. They can't and they won't.

[Red]

Trees.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

On a cautionary note, here are two recent studies of first rounders. Both studies seem to indicate that offensive tackles have a fairly high percentage of becoming draft busts.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft09/ins...tory?id=4046037

 

http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/04/17/whi...he-first-round/

 

One of our posters recently showed data indicating that most successful quarterbacks are first round draft picks.

 

One conclusion that could be drawn is that with regard to quarterbacks and offensive tackles, both of those positions are typically stocked in the first round.

 

Of those players, there are many successes and many failures.

[Thoner7]

This could be said of every postion in the League. The best players go in round 1. Will that said, I still want Bulaga.

[Pirate Angel]

http://tisdelstirades.blogspot.com/

 

This is totally worth a read if you are thinking of any pick other than LT in the first round.

 

Astro

It basically said that we had a LT that was a undrafted free agent that fit all the intangables of LT taken in the first round and now we are looking for a LT again with our first round pick, which could be used on another need.

[dave mcbride]

A couple of observations:

 

1) This is nice, but damn is it obvious. Players drafted earlier do better. You know, there's a reason why teams spend millions on scouts, GMs, and personnel management. Moreover, outside of kicker and punter, the author's conclusion would bear out for almost every other position too.

 

2) Letting Jason Peters go was, predictably, an epic blunder. He was a top ten tackle and a top five pass blocker last year. The Bills' LT (best personified by a revolving door) was probably 33rd out of 32 teams last year.

[justnzane]

A couple of observations:

 

1) This is nice, but damn is it obvious. Players drafted earlier do better. You know, there's a reason why teams spend millions on scouts, GMs, and personnel management. Moreover, outside of kicker and punter, the author's conclusion would bear out for almost every other position too.

 

2) Letting Jason Peters go was, predictably, an epic blunder. He was a top ten tackle and a top five pass blocker last year. The Bills' LT (best personified by a revolving door) was probably 33rd out of 32 teams last year.

 

I don't get where this notion of Jason Peter's as a good pass blocker is coming from? He got McNabb killed quite a few time when facing DeMarcus Ware, and plenty of other times when he was on national television. The same could be said the year before when he was lazy and got Edwards and Losman killed a few too many times. The sack numbers for his last year as a Bill were over 12 IIRC, that is not Pro-Bowl caliber. Besides he was a malcontent that didn't want to be here, which was a no-win situation for Brandon and company.

[dave mcbride]

I don't get where this notion of Jason Peter's as a good pass blocker is coming from? He got McNabb killed quite a few time when facing DeMarcus Ware, and plenty of other times when he was on national television. The same could be said the year before when he was lazy and got Edwards and Losman killed a few too many times. The sack numbers for his last year as a Bill were over 12 IIRC, that is not Pro-Bowl caliber. Besides he was a malcontent that didn't want to be here, which was a no-win situation for Brandon and company.

The Eagles played 14 other games besides the Cowboys games in the regular season. I saw many of them. He's a good player, and he had a good season overall. The Bills, on the other hand, didn't, and their LT was a joke. They did save money, though, and I realize that many Bills do actually take some solace in that. Incidentally, he was a malcontent because he wasn't paid. The Eagles paid him, and he wasn't a malcontent.

[DarthICE]

Excellent read from a blogger. I particularly liked this quote:

 

"However, tackles picked in later rounds simply do not have the physical tools to play LT at the highest level. Not a single third-to seventh-round tackle, left or right, has made the Pro Bowl in the past ten years."

 

Sure, Peters, Gaither, and Donald Penn came from those late round or the UDFA ranks, but in 10 years that's all there is to show for all those OT's. Not very good odds, but some will cling to the notion that Demetrius Bell or Jamon Meredith will suffice. They can't and they won't.

 

No but an UNDRAFTED tightend converted to LT has made the probowl.

[EndZoneCrew]

ASK THIS GUY

[BillsRUs]

Thank you for the articles. Very informative.

[Orton's Arm]

On a cautionary note, here are two recent studies of first rounders. Both studies seem to indicate that offensive tackles have a fairly high percentage of becoming draft busts.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft09/ins...tory?id=4046037

 

http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/04/17/whi...he-first-round/

 

One of our posters recently showed data indicating that most successful quarterbacks are first round draft picks.

 

One conclusion that could be drawn is that with regard to quarterbacks and offensive tackles, both of those positions are typically stocked in the first round.

 

Of those players, there are many successes and many failures.

The above sounds about right. The Bills have a lot of needs at what I consider "premium" positions. By that phrase I mean positions which are the most highly valued in the draft--QB, LT, RDE, NT. One could make a compelling argument that each of those four positions--and especially the first three--get filled in the first round; with a strong emphasis on players from the top 10.

 

Because the Bills have so many needs at premium positions, they should probably steer clear of thoughts of drafting a player at an easier to fill position at #9. On another thread, someone suggested the Bills take a strong safety at 9th overall!!

[Thurman#1]

http://tisdelstirades.blogspot.com/

 

This is totally worth a read if you are thinking of any pick other than LT in the first round.

 

Astro

 

 

 

Good find, Astro.

 

The problem is that this same trend is found for LTs, but also QBs, and unfortunately, we need one of each, not to mention a 3 - 4 DT.

[Thurman#1]

No but an UNDRAFTED tightend converted to LT has made the probowl.

 

 

So .... should we pick up lots of UDFA TEs, figuring that since most of them are around 250 - 260, we can stuff 'em like geese being force-fed so their livers will make good pate, put 60 - 80 pounds on them and figure if we pick up five then one will turn into a Pro Bowl LT?

 

Peters and the other two the article mentions are exceptions which prove the rule. All three of them UDFAs and late-round guys who became pro bowlers, either played different positions or other problems like Gaither coming out as an unpolished soph due to academic problems.

 

So, what should we learn from the Jason Peters debacle? Just look for the available 325 pound TEs with quick feet coming out of college and draft them.

Let's take a look ... um ... Hello ... ooo ... ooo.

 

Is there an echo in here?

[Astrobot]

Good find, Astro.

 

The problem is that this same trend is found for LTs, but also QBs, and unfortunately, we need one of each, not to mention a 3 - 4 DT.

 

Or two each.

1-Bulaga LT "Iowa1"

2-Cam NT

3-Lefevour QB

4-Calloway OT "Iowa2"

5-Linval Joseph NT

6-Zac Robinson QB

 

Done. No Prob.

[Thurman#1]

On a cautionary note, here are two recent studies of first rounders. Both studies seem to indicate that offensive tackles have a fairly high percentage of becoming draft busts.

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft09/ins...tory?id=4046037

 

http://www.scoresreport.com/2009/04/17/whi...he-first-round/

 

One of our posters recently showed data indicating that most successful quarterbacks are first round draft picks.

 

One conclusion that could be drawn is that with regard to quarterbacks and offensive tackles, both of those positions are typically stocked in the first round.

 

Of those players, there are many successes and many failures.

 

 

Couldn't read the first one as it is on a pay site, but the second in no way says that OTs "have a fairly high percentage of becoming draft busts." In fact, it says that they have a very high chance of being starters or better, though a fairly low percentage of being stars or superstars.

 

But interesting stuff. Thanks.

[Thurman#1]

This could be said of every postion in the League. The best players go in round 1. Will that said, I still want Bulaga.

 

 

No, it couldn't. It specifically says that there's virtually no chance of getting a competent LT after the second round. That isn't true of most positions at all.