Bills should trade away #9

[Thoner7]

I agree mostly with the analysis. Interesting that the best pick was Nate Clements, who we drafted after trading down! I think Kenyana Walker (TB) was picked with our original pick. If there is a trade partner, I'd always try to trade up/down into spots 20-50. I think those picks offer the best players at the most reasonable and easy to sign rookie contracts. The high first round picks are overpaid and sometimes difficult to sign. The 3rd/4th round picks are prospects that generally don't develop into starters. I'd use 5/6/7 for special teamers and prospects.

 

Last year, NE was masterful at stocking up on these picks.

 

 

AH....the annual we should trade down thread.

 

What the hell. I dont want to trade down!

 

I want the Bills to trade their pick, for a PB player, in the same fashion that we traded away Jason Peters.

 

For example:

Wilfork is pissed he is tagged. He called it a slap in the face. He wants to be paid. Similar to Jason Peters one year ago.

 

The Eagles saw Peters, and traded a 1st rounder + a 4th for him, then paid him his money. I think the Bills should really try and do the same thing with Wilfork. What are the chances the Bills get a player even half as good as Wilfork at 9? We could then pay Wilfork his money and have teh best 3-4 NT in the league anchoring our new defense.

 

If the Pats dont go for it, try SD and try to get McNiel. McNiel no doubt is pissed he can get tendered with a low dollar amount. If he causes the fuss Peters did and is going to skip training camp - maybe SD would avoid all that by trading him for a top 10 pick. The Bills would then get a solid proven LT with their #9. Considering how bad the Bills are at drafting, more than likely the best way to get good value with the pick is to trade it for a proven PB player at a position of need.

 

I dont not want more picks I want proven players.

[PDaDdy]

What the hell. I dont want to trade down!

 

I want the Bills to trade their pick, for a PB player, in the same fashion that we traded away Jason Peters.

 

For example:

Wilfork is pissed he is tagged. He called it a slap in the face. He wants to be paid. Similar to Jason Peters one year ago.

 

The Eagles saw Peters, and traded a 1st rounder + a 4th for him, then paid him his money. I think the Bills should really try and do the same thing with Wilfork. What are the chances the Bills get a player even half as good as Wilfork at 9? We could then pay Wilfork his money and have teh best 3-4 NT in the league anchoring our new defense.

 

If the Pats dont go for it, try SD and try to get McNiel. McNiel no doubt is pissed he can get tendered with a low dollar amount. If he causes the fuss Peters did and is going to skip training camp - maybe SD would avoid all that by trading him for a top 10 pick. The Bills would then get a solid proven LT with their #9. Considering how bad the Bills are at drafting, more than likely the best way to get good value with the pick is to trade it for a proven PB player at a position of need.

 

I dont not want more picks I want proven players.

 

 

I hear ya now. I believe in your argument in principal. Although you wouldn't get "youth" with the #9 pick you would get most likely get a better "player" with the #9 pick than you could realistically get in the draft. Trading away a 1st is always tough though. You better be careful with your Wilfork talk and comparison to Jason Peters though.

 

***QUEUE THE ...."Wilfolk is a lazy, fat, doughnut eating, locker room cancer, loyalty lacking, greedy bastard talk" that everyone spewed about Peters because their poor little feelings were hurt because the guy wanted to be paid what he was worth. The Eagles did pay him what he was worth and gave up a 1st and a 3rd for the right to do it!!!!!!!!

[John from Riverside]

AH....the annual we should trade down thread.

 

Actually that isn't what Thoner is saying.....he is sayting that instead of actually drafting a player take the pick and trade it for a veteran player.

 

I dont agree with the idea.....but that is the concept.

 

Now that we have someone in charge that actually knows how to evaluate talent.....I WANT them to draft.....and to be perfectly honest a trade down for more picks is not a horrible idea....especially if we can get another 2nd rounder.

[Magox]

I wonder if we could trade our #9 pick for a #15.

 

[PDaDdy]

I wonder if we could trade our #9 pick for a #15.

 

 

 

Heh heh.

[Green Lightning]

How about letting our new front office make the call so we can start playing Buddy Ball! I've been with this team since 1963 and I've seen it all. But I have a good gut feeling about Buddy. He knows a football player when he sees him and if he thinks someone is worth a #9, I'm with him. If he doesn't see top ten value and trades down, I'm with him.

[JPS]

The only way #9 gets traded is if Claussen is still there at #9 and we don't like Claussen. If you're a team who needs an OT, is Bulaga or Davis really that much better than T. Williams or C. Brown that you'll give up your 2nd to get him? Is Morgan that much better than JPP?

 

It's obvious that the best teams build through the draft and there are countless trade ups that have not worked out....Derrick Harvey being the latest. So I think there's little chance of a trade down...unless Claussen is there.

 

Then what do you do??

[PDaDdy]

The only way #9 gets traded is if Claussen is still there at #9 and we don't like Claussen. If you're a team who needs an OT, is Bulaga or Davis really that much better than T. Williams or C. Brown that you'll give up your 2nd to get him? Is Morgan that much better than JPP?

 

It's obvious that the best teams build through the draft and there are countless trade ups that have not worked out....Derrick Harvey being the latest. So I think there's little chance of a trade down...unless Claussen is there.

 

Then what do you do??

 

 

I am not one to worry about trade up/down scenarios because from an individual team perspective it rarely happens. The Bills' history shows that we are much more likely to trade up. That being said I think that might be the only scenario where someone might want to trade up for our spot if Claussen drops. As usual a portion of the problem is that we would need to feel that we can still fill our needs without reaching by trading down and that actually gains us something.

[RyanC883]

I think the Bills should seriously consider moving the #9 pick for a proven commodity. Before we talk about how valuable a top 10/first round pick is, lets look at 10 Bills drafts, skipping over 08 and 09 because its too early to tell (I am including the Parrish pick in 05 bc it was essential our top pick that year, having traded away our 05 first a full year in advance, which allowed us to focus on that pick being our first in that draft)

 

2000 Erik Flowers

2001 Nate Clements

2002 Mike Williams

2003 Willis McGahee

2004 Lee Evans

2004 J.P. Losman

2005 No 1st Round Pick, Roscoe Parrish (2nd Round)

2006 Donte Whitner

2006 John McCargo

2007 Marshawn Lynch

 

Now to quatify that with a % success rate, I am going to use a simple grading system. A 1 will equal a good pick with good value and production from that player relative to their draft position. a 1/2 with equal a decent player with decent production relative to their draft position. A 0 [zero] will basically be a bust, or someone who has disappointed relative to draft position. This scale will result in any average over 50% as above average. I will be very gracious with my ranking too.

 

2000 Erik Flowers: Zero - complete bust. Started 5 games before being benched, only last 2 years before being cut.

2001 Nate Clements 1 - one of the better corners to hit FA when the Bills didnt resign him. Played 6 years for the Bills.

2002 Mike Williams: Zero -Complete Bust. Never played LT and was out of the league a few years later.

2003 Willis McGahee: 1/2 - missed entire rookie year. Played well when he was in. Would be a zero if his trade did not bring in 2 third round picks

2004 Lee Evans: 1/2 - One of the better players on the team but a WR taken 13th overall should be more productive regardless of who is throwing him the ball. Labeled a 1 trick pony.

2004 J.P. Losman: Zero- banished to the UFL after his rookie contract expired.

2005 No 1st Round Pick, Roscoe Parrish (2nd Round): Zero - never more thana Punt returner. Bills needed more value with this pick.

2006 Donte Whitner: Zero: 8th overall pick gets beaten out by UDFA and former WR for starting job. Being a top 10 pick=Zero

2006 John McCargo: Zero - no explanation needed.

2007 Marshawn Lynch 1/2 - Made the PB and is a good back, but was beaten out by UDFA and D3 Jackson. If he is traded with little return this will drop to a zero.

 

To add the figures:

0+1+0+1/2+1/2+0+0+0+0+1/2=2.5

 

2.5/10=.25 = 25% success rate.

 

25% As we can see, a top 10/first pick is not valuable to a Bills organization that simply can not draft well early on. Now I realize Nix is in the house now, but he was there last year too, and Maybin was the Bills selection. Maybin has not shown anything in his rookie year that can make anyone think the Bills have righted the ship.

 

Now considering it is feasible that the Bills could trade away that pick for say, Wilfork or McNiel, I would be all for doing it. Lets be honest here, the only player I gave a 1 to in my rankings - which I feel are very accurate - is Clements, who spent only 6 years with the team. Only 2 or 3 of those years was he very dominant. We could be getting guys who are entering the prime of their careers in Wilfork/McNiel, who could easily pend 6 years in Buffalo dominating, and not unknown rookies who need to be taught the game and have little chance of succeeding, who will then likely leave via FA.

 

We are going to draft a T/NT most likely anyways with taht #9 overall. I say dont risk drafting another colossal bust. Save the top 10 pick money, dont risk taking a rookie, and divert the money into a big contract for Wilfork/McNiel by trading the pick away.

 

I agree. Trade down and get someone would can play NT, pick up an extra second or third round pick.

[Thoner7]

Actually that isn't what Thoner is saying.....he is sayting that instead of actually drafting a player take the pick and trade it for a veteran player.

 

I dont agree with the idea.....but that is the concept.

 

Now that we have someone in charge that actually knows how to evaluate talent.....I WANT them to draft.....and to be perfectly honest a trade down for more picks is not a horrible idea....especially if we can get another 2nd rounder.

 

Thank you.

[cincyadam]

Hey guys I'm new to twobillsdrive and thought this first thread seemed pretty interesting. I agree that we do need more picks but I'm throwing a wild idea out there. This is probably more ideal in the minds of Madden players, but what if we traded UP with Detroit. They are shopping for a team to take that pick because they frankily can't afford it. Kevin Smith's injury problems are a cause for concern, so what if we traded Lynch, 1st rd pick, 3rd rd, and a 6th rd pick for their 2nd overall pick and Ernie Simms. We take either Suh or McCoy with that pick, get an amazing LB, and also have a 2nd rd pick to select a QB or OL. If we believe we are set at NT, which we are not, we could take a LT but I think taking either one of those two to anchor our defense along with Simms would be amazing.

 

Again, probably more suitable for a Madden '10 trade than reality, but just a thought.

[spartacus]

Buddy Nix is running the show......

 

I actually dont have a problem trading down as we can aquire more picks....but not because we might draft poorly. I have complete faith in Nix.

 

Nix did such a good job last year with his talent evalution of Maybin.

[Thoner7]

Nix did such a good job last year with his talent evalution of Maybin.

 

Thats what Im saying. While the Bills have always gotten good players in the late rounds, we suck with our top pick, even with Nix we did. Who knows if Mix was 100% against it and they picked him anyways, I just doubt it.

[Ghost of Rob Johnson]

The only way #9 gets traded is if Claussen is still there at #9 and we don't like Claussen. If you're a team who needs an OT, is Bulaga or Davis really that much better than T. Williams or C. Brown that you'll give up your 2nd to get him? Is Morgan that much better than JPP?

 

It's obvious that the best teams build through the draft and there are countless trade ups that have not worked out....Derrick Harvey being the latest. So I think there's little chance of a trade down...unless Claussen is there.

 

Then what do you do??

What if Berry or Haden are there? Or a team looking ensure they get Spiller?

[Thoner7]

What if Berry or Haden are there? Or a team looking ensure they get Spiller?

 

FWIW, I doubt any team really wants Spiller that much.

[manbeast]

Mike Holmgren asked Gil Brandt who he should draft with the 9th pick. I don't know if he mispoke or we are trading up.

 

http://chat.nfl.com/front/index/790

i actually started a new post on it.

[manbeast]

Nix did such a good job last year with his talent evalution of Maybin.

Nix already dissed the Maybin pick. He said he will not draft one year wonders. I don't even think we had bad picks as much as we lacked personell to develope these players.

[Wilson from Gamehendge]

You do realize that you just explained more thoroughly how Lynch was beaten out, rather than make an argument against it, right?

 

 

How is this 'Wrong!'? It's completely 'Correct!'

 

To the OP's point, I agree. If there's a willing trade partner, swap the pick for a proven, plug-in starter at a position of need.

 

 

Sure sounds like Lynch was beaten out to me

 

Look at it another way, if you have one series left before a game ends, which would you rather have in? Lynch or Starter Jackson?

People...Fred Jackson was the starter from day 1 because Marshawn Lynch could not play!

 

Do you REALLY think if Lynch was not suspended that Jackson would have started opening day? Not a chance.

 

 

Being "beat out" would mean that there was a fair competition at RB in training camp, and Jackson played better than Lynch and fairly took the job. That was not the case.

 

Again...Jackson won the starting job by default, due to Lynch's suspension.

[thewildrabbit]

If Buddy Nix is worth anything at all, this is why he was hired.

 

The Bills need to take a OT with that #9

[8-8 Forever?]

I've been thinking we need to trade the pick too, but for a different reason.

To get extra picks! We need a nose tackle really badly and I'm not sure anybody is worth a #9

but Price or somebody would be there in the 20's.

The need for an OT is nearly as great, maybe 2 of them since Butler retired.

Then there is outside linebacker,WR, QB. The needs are many. Extra picks would sure come in handy.

 

more picks would be the way to go. free agency will be a non event this year, so the only way to get new bodies is the draft...