Bills should trade away #9

[Thoner7]

I think the Bills should seriously consider moving the #9 pick for a proven commodity. Before we talk about how valuable a top 10/first round pick is, lets look at 10 Bills drafts, skipping over 08 and 09 because its too early to tell (I am including the Parrish pick in 05 bc it was essential our top pick that year, having traded away our 05 first a full year in advance, which allowed us to focus on that pick being our first in that draft)

 

2000 Erik Flowers

2001 Nate Clements

2002 Mike Williams

2003 Willis McGahee

2004 Lee Evans

2004 J.P. Losman

2005 No 1st Round Pick, Roscoe Parrish (2nd Round)

2006 Donte Whitner

2006 John McCargo

2007 Marshawn Lynch

 

Now to quatify that with a % success rate, I am going to use a simple grading system. A 1 will equal a good pick with good value and production from that player relative to their draft position. a 1/2 with equal a decent player with decent production relative to their draft position. A 0 [zero] will basically be a bust, or someone who has disappointed relative to draft position. This scale will result in any average over 50% as above average. I will be very gracious with my ranking too.

 

2000 Erik Flowers: Zero - complete bust. Started 5 games before being benched, only last 2 years before being cut.

2001 Nate Clements 1 - one of the better corners to hit FA when the Bills didnt resign him. Played 6 years for the Bills.

2002 Mike Williams: Zero -Complete Bust. Never played LT and was out of the league a few years later.

2003 Willis McGahee: 1/2 - missed entire rookie year. Played well when he was in. Would be a zero if his trade did not bring in 2 third round picks

2004 Lee Evans: 1/2 - One of the better players on the team but a WR taken 13th overall should be more productive regardless of who is throwing him the ball. Labeled a 1 trick pony.

2004 J.P. Losman: Zero- banished to the UFL after his rookie contract expired.

2005 No 1st Round Pick, Roscoe Parrish (2nd Round): Zero - never more thana Punt returner. Bills needed more value with this pick.

2006 Donte Whitner: Zero: 8th overall pick gets beaten out by UDFA and former WR for starting job. Being a top 10 pick=Zero

2006 John McCargo: Zero - no explanation needed.

2007 Marshawn Lynch 1/2 - Made the PB and is a good back, but was beaten out by UDFA and D3 Jackson. If he is traded with little return this will drop to a zero.

 

To add the figures:

0+1+0+1/2+1/2+0+0+0+0+1/2=2.5

 

2.5/10=.25 = 25% success rate.

 

25% As we can see, a top 10/first pick is not valuable to a Bills organization that simply can not draft well early on. Now I realize Nix is in the house now, but he was there last year too, and Maybin was the Bills selection. Maybin has not shown anything in his rookie year that can make anyone think the Bills have righted the ship.

 

Now considering it is feasible that the Bills could trade away that pick for say, Wilfork or McNiel, I would be all for doing it. Lets be honest here, the only player I gave a 1 to in my rankings - which I feel are very accurate - is Clements, who spent only 6 years with the team. Only 2 or 3 of those years was he very dominant. We could be getting guys who are entering the prime of their careers in Wilfork/McNiel, who could easily pend 6 years in Buffalo dominating, and not unknown rookies who need to be taught the game and have little chance of succeeding, who will then likely leave via FA.

 

We are going to draft a T/NT most likely anyways with taht #9 overall. I say dont risk drafting another colossal bust. Save the top 10 pick money, dont risk taking a rookie, and divert the money into a big contract for Wilfork/McNiel by trading the pick away.

[Wagon Circler]

I've been thinking we need to trade the pick too, but for a different reason.

To get extra picks! We need a nose tackle really badly and I'm not sure anybody is worth a #9

but Price or somebody would be there in the 20's.

The need for an OT is nearly as great, maybe 2 of them since Butler retired.

Then there is outside linebacker,WR, QB. The needs are many. Extra picks would sure come in handy.

[Thoner7]

I've been thinking we need to trade the pick too, but for a different reason.

To get extra picks! We need a nose tackle really badly and I'm not sure anybody is worth a #9

but Price or somebody would be there in the 20's.

The need for an OT is nearly as great, maybe 2 of them since Butler retired.

Then there is outside linebacker,WR, QB. The needs are many. Extra picks would sure come in handy.

 

Reports are/were/I remember hearing the Pats were thinking of dumping Matt Light with the emergence of Sebastion Vollmer. The Pats most likely wouldnt go for this, but a combo of Wilfork/Matt Light would solve our biggest two issues. Not too likely Im sure, but its an option I look into If I am Buddy Nix.

[Pirate Angel]

One thing about trading a pick is that there has to be an organization that wants to trade up and give up those extra picks, this is sometimes easier said then done.

[PromoTheRobot]

Someone a) has to want to trade with us and b) has to offer us fair value for our #9 pick. This is not automatic so stop acting like it is.

 

PTR

[ChanOverChin]

There's no doubt that the Bills should seriously consider trading down in R1 to get more high picks. The only way that you don't do that if you're the Bills is if you believe that a franchise QB will be available or that yuo won't be able to draft a franchise LT later in R1.

[Bob in STL]

I think the Bills should seriously consider moving the #9 pick for a proven commodity. Before we talk about how valuable a top 10/first round pick is, lets look at 10 Bills drafts, skipping over 08 and 09 because its too early to tell (I am including the Parrish pick in 05 bc it was essential our top pick that year, having traded away our 05 first a full year in advance, which allowed us to focus on that pick being our first in that draft)

 

2000 Erik Flowers

2001 Nate Clements

2002 Mike Williams

2003 Willis McGahee

2004 Lee Evans

2004 J.P. Losman

2005 No 1st Round Pick, Roscoe Parrish (2nd Round)

2006 Donte Whitner

2006 John McCargo

2007 Marshawn Lynch

 

Now to quatify that with a % success rate, I am going to use a simple grading system. A 1 will equal a good pick with good value and production from that player relative to their draft position. a 1/2 with equal a decent player with decent production relative to their draft position. A 0 [zero] will basically be a bust, or someone who has disappointed relative to draft position. This scale will result in any average over 50% as above average. I will be very gracious with my ranking too.

 

2000 Erik Flowers: Zero - complete bust. Started 5 games before being benched, only last 2 years before being cut.

2001 Nate Clements 1 - one of the better corners to hit FA when the Bills didnt resign him. Played 6 years for the Bills.

2002 Mike Williams: Zero -Complete Bust. Never played LT and was out of the league a few years later.

2003 Willis McGahee: 1/2 - missed entire rookie year. Played well when he was in. Would be a zero if his trade did not bring in 2 third round picks

2004 Lee Evans: 1/2 - One of the better players on the team but a WR taken 13th overall should be more productive regardless of who is throwing him the ball. Labeled a 1 trick pony.

2004 J.P. Losman: Zero- banished to the UFL after his rookie contract expired.

2005 No 1st Round Pick, Roscoe Parrish (2nd Round): Zero - never more thana Punt returner. Bills needed more value with this pick.

2006 Donte Whitner: Zero: 8th overall pick gets beaten out by UDFA and former WR for starting job. Being a top 10 pick=Zero

2006 John McCargo: Zero - no explanation needed.

2007 Marshawn Lynch 1/2 - Made the PB and is a good back, but was beaten out by UDFA and D3 Jackson. If he is traded with little return this will drop to a zero.

 

To add the figures:

0+1+0+1/2+1/2+0+0+0+0+1/2=2.5

 

2.5/10=.25 = 25% success rate.

 

25% As we can see, a top 10/first pick is not valuable to a Bills organization that simply can not draft well early on. Now I realize Nix is in the house now, but he was there last year too, and Maybin was the Bills selection. Maybin has not shown anything in his rookie year that can make anyone think the Bills have righted the ship.

 

Now considering it is feasible that the Bills could trade away that pick for say, Wilfork or McNiel, I would be all for doing it. Lets be honest here, the only player I gave a 1 to in my rankings - which I feel are very accurate - is Clements, who spent only 6 years with the team. Only 2 or 3 of those years was he very dominant. We could be getting guys who are entering the prime of their careers in Wilfork/McNiel, who could easily pend 6 years in Buffalo dominating, and not unknown rookies who need to be taught the game and have little chance of succeeding, who will then likely leave via FA.

 

We are going to draft a T/NT most likely anyways with taht #9 overall. I say dont risk drafting another colossal bust. Save the top 10 pick money, dont risk taking a rookie, and divert the money into a big contract for Wilfork/McNiel by trading the pick away.

 

Yawn. Those drafts were conducted by 4 different GMs. Wilfork is not available any more. NcNiel is restricted. Important facts to know don't you think?

 

I disagree with some of your ratings but that is beside the point.

 

Lets move forward, not backward and let the new GM do his job. If we can trade down that's great, but we need to stay in the first round for reasons that are obvious to most.

[bkc]

I think the Bills should seriously consider moving the #9 pick for a proven commodity. Before we talk about how valuable a top 10/first round pick is, lets look at 10 Bills drafts, skipping over 08 and 09 because its too early to tell (I am including the Parrish pick in 05 bc it was essential our top pick that year, having traded away our 05 first a full year in advance, which allowed us to focus on that pick being our first in that draft)

 

2000 Erik Flowers

2001 Nate Clements

2002 Mike Williams

2003 Willis McGahee

2004 Lee Evans

2004 J.P. Losman

2005 No 1st Round Pick, Roscoe Parrish (2nd Round)

2006 Donte Whitner

2006 John McCargo

2007 Marshawn Lynch

 

Now to quatify that with a % success rate, I am going to use a simple grading system. A 1 will equal a good pick with good value and production from that player relative to their draft position. a 1/2 with equal a decent player with decent production relative to their draft position. A 0 [zero] will basically be a bust, or someone who has disappointed relative to draft position. This scale will result in any average over 50% as above average. I will be very gracious with my ranking too.

 

2000 Erik Flowers: Zero - complete bust. Started 5 games before being benched, only last 2 years before being cut.

2001 Nate Clements 1 - one of the better corners to hit FA when the Bills didnt resign him. Played 6 years for the Bills.

2002 Mike Williams: Zero -Complete Bust. Never played LT and was out of the league a few years later.

2003 Willis McGahee: 1/2 - missed entire rookie year. Played well when he was in. Would be a zero if his trade did not bring in 2 third round picks

2004 Lee Evans: 1/2 - One of the better players on the team but a WR taken 13th overall should be more productive regardless of who is throwing him the ball. Labeled a 1 trick pony.

2004 J.P. Losman: Zero- banished to the UFL after his rookie contract expired.

2005 No 1st Round Pick, Roscoe Parrish (2nd Round): Zero - never more thana Punt returner. Bills needed more value with this pick.

2006 Donte Whitner: Zero: 8th overall pick gets beaten out by UDFA and former WR for starting job. Being a top 10 pick=Zero

2006 John McCargo: Zero - no explanation needed.

2007 Marshawn Lynch 1/2 - Made the PB and is a good back, but was beaten out by UDFA and D3 Jackson. If he is traded with little return this will drop to a zero.

 

To add the figures:

0+1+0+1/2+1/2+0+0+0+0+1/2=2.5

 

2.5/10=.25 = 25% success rate.

 

25% As we can see, a top 10/first pick is not valuable to a Bills organization that simply can not draft well early on. Now I realize Nix is in the house now, but he was there last year too, and Maybin was the Bills selection. Maybin has not shown anything in his rookie year that can make anyone think the Bills have righted the ship.

 

Now considering it is feasible that the Bills could trade away that pick for say, Wilfork or McNiel, I would be all for doing it. Lets be honest here, the only player I gave a 1 to in my rankings - which I feel are very accurate - is Clements, who spent only 6 years with the team. Only 2 or 3 of those years was he very dominant. We could be getting guys who are entering the prime of their careers in Wilfork/McNiel, who could easily pend 6 years in Buffalo dominating, and not unknown rookies who need to be taught the game and have little chance of succeeding, who will then likely leave via FA.

 

We are going to draft a T/NT most likely anyways with taht #9 overall. I say dont risk drafting another colossal bust. Save the top 10 pick money, dont risk taking a rookie, and divert the money into a big contract for Wilfork/McNiel by trading the pick away.

It has been an ugle decade. Seems like we zero in on a position and draft a player to fill that need no matter how much of a reach it is . I would hope that Buddy will do a better job.

[John from Riverside]

Buddy Nix is running the show......

 

I actually dont have a problem trading down as we can aquire more picks....but not because we might draft poorly. I have complete faith in Nix.

[Thoner7]

There's no doubt that the Bills should seriously consider trading down in R1 to get more high picks. The only way that you don't do that if you're the Bills is if you believe that a franchise QB will be available or that yuo won't be able to draft a franchise LT later in R1.

 

I didnt say the Bills should look to get more picks. I said they should look to get a proven vet entering the prime of their career.

 

Yawn. Those drafts were conducted by 4 different GMs. Wilfork is not available any more. NcNiel is restricted. Important facts to know don't you think?

 

I disagree with some of your ratings but that is beside the point.

 

Lets move forward, not backward and let the new GM do his job. If we can trade down that's great, but we need to stay in the first round for reasons that are obvious to most.

 

Four diff GMs but the same scouting staff, thats why we suck no matter who the GM is.

 

I know that Wilfork and McNiel are tagged/tendered, that is exactly why I said we should trade for them using our #9 pick.

 

Buddy Nix is running the show......

 

I actually dont have a problem trading down as we can aquire more picks....but not because we might draft poorly. I have complete faith in Nix.

 

Did anyone read what I wrote? I dont want more picks I want players, and while we had a good draft last year with Nix on board, we still blew our top pick. Thats doesnt give me much faith moving forward.

[Wilson from Gamehendge]

2007 Marshawn Lynch 1/2 - Made the PB and is a good back, but was beaten out by UDFA and D3 Jackson. If he is traded with little return this will drop to a zero.

Wrong!

 

When did Lynch get "beaten out" by Jackson, for his job?

 

 

If I recall correctly, Lynch was suspended for the first 3 or 4 games of the year...making Jackson the starter by default.

 

Fred Jackson played well enough to the point where, when Lynch came back, the staff let Jackson keep his job because he had earned the chance to get more playing time, and he was proving to be effective.

 

When Fewell took over, he left Jackson in because Freddie gave Fewell the best chance at winning and keeping the H.C. job.

[John from Riverside]

I didnt say the Bills should look to get more picks. I said they should look to get a proven vet entering the prime of their career.

 

 

 

Four diff GMs but the same scouting staff, thats why we suck no matter who the GM is.

 

I know that Wilfork and McNiel are tagged/tendered, that is exactly why I said we should trade for them using our #9 pick.

 

 

 

Did anyone read what I wrote? I dont want more picks I want players, and while we had a good draft last year with Nix on board, we still blew our top pick. Thats doesnt give me much faith moving forward.

 

NIX WAS NOT IN CHARGE last year......he was simply a scout who easily could have been overruled on that first round pick.....

[murra]

Wrong!

 

When did Lynch get "beaten out" by Jackson, for his job?

 

 

If I recall correctly, Lynch was suspended for the first 3 or 4 games of the year...making Jackson the starter by default.

 

Fred Jackson played well enough to the point where, when Lynch came back, the staff let Jackson keep his job because he had earned the chance to get more playing time, and he was proving to be effective.

 

When Fewell took over, he left Jackson in because Freddie gave Fewell the best chance at winning and keeping the H.C. job.

 

You do realize that you just explained more thoroughly how Lynch was beaten out, rather than make an argument against it, right?

[Captain Hindsight]

Has to be a team willing to trade a proven commodity for an unproven commodity. Not many teams want to do that why would they all of a sudden do it this year?

[Chandler#81]

Wrong!

 

When did Lynch get "beaten out" by Jackson, for his job?

 

 

If I recall correctly, Lynch was suspended for the first 3 or 4 games of the year...making Jackson the starter by default.

 

Fred Jackson played well enough to the point where, when Lynch came back, the staff let Jackson keep his job because he had earned the chance to get more playing time, and he was proving to be effective.

When Fewell took over, he left Jackson in because Freddie gave Fewell the best chance at winning and keeping the H.C. job.

 

How is this 'Wrong!'? It's completely 'Correct!'

 

To the OP's point, I agree. If there's a willing trade partner, swap the pick for a proven, plug-in starter at a position of need.

[MarkyMannn]

Wrong!

 

When did Lynch get "beaten out" by Jackson, for his job?

 

 

If I recall correctly, Lynch was suspended for the first 3 or 4 games of the year...making Jackson the starter by default.

 

Fred Jackson played well enough to the point where, when Lynch came back, the staff let Jackson keep his job because he had earned the chance to get more playing time, and he was proving to be effective.

 

When Fewell took over, he left Jackson in because Freddie gave Fewell the best chance at winning and keeping the H.C. job.

 

Sure sounds like Lynch was beaten out to me

 

Look at it another way, if you have one series left before a game ends, which would you rather have in? Lynch or Starter Jackson?

[Rock'em Sock'em]

I agree mostly with the analysis. Interesting that the best pick was Nate Clements, who we drafted after trading down! I think Kenyana Walker (TB) was picked with our original pick. If there is a trade partner, I'd always try to trade up/down into spots 20-50. I think those picks offer the best players at the most reasonable and easy to sign rookie contracts. The high first round picks are overpaid and sometimes difficult to sign. The 3rd/4th round picks are prospects that generally don't develop into starters. I'd use 5/6/7 for special teamers and prospects.

 

Last year, NE was masterful at stocking up on these picks.

[PDaDdy]

AH....the annual we should trade down thread.

[K-9]

AH....the annual we should trade down thread.

 

Surely a gridiron connoisseur such as yourself can truly appreciate the "real world" relevance to the concept of the Bills trading down to gain extra picks.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[PDaDdy]

Surely a gridiron connoisseur such as yourself can truly appreciate the "real world" relevance to the concept of the Bills trading down to gain extra picks.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

 

LOL. I'm not sure how real world it is. The only problem with every single one of these threads is that it assumes a trade partner. I love speculation but there are limits. Every under .500 team across America has some sort of trade down thread that gets started every year. People love to speculate but it RARELY ever happens in the grand scheme of things. If anything history has taught us that Ralphie is far more likely to trade up than to trade down.

 

THEN of course there is always the "this is my mock draft if we trade away player XYZ that is a great performer that I don't like for personal reasons" thread.