ESPN AFC East Pre-Combine Mock

[Coach Klein]

http://espn.go.com/blog/afceast/post/_/id/...ine-mocktacular

 

No. 9 Buffalo Bills

 

Kiper's pick: Russell Okung, Oklahoma State tackle

McShay's pick: Sam Bradford, Oklahoma quarterback

Banks' pick: Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame quarterback

Brooks' pick: Bryan Bulaga, Iowa tackle

Burke's pick: Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame quarterback

Lines' pick: Dan Williams, Tennessee defensive tackle

Rang's pick: Jimmy Clausen, Norte Dame quarterback

Reuter's pick: Bryan Bulaga, Iowa tackle

Wilson's pick: Bryan Bulaga, Iowa tackle

[R. Rich]

Those are decent enough options. Okung would be a good LT prospect, Bradford and Clausen are the top QBs available (though I still don't believe either are "franchise" QBs), Williams looked incredible @ the Senior Bowl and was a handful and Bulaga could end up being a very good RT.

 

All would address areas of need for the Bills.

[Dr. Trooth]

Bradford and Clausen are the top QBs available

 

True. However, neither is close to being worth the 9th pick. Neither will go before 18... and Clausen will probably drop further.

 

So, if the Bills want either, all they have to do is trade down...and they could even trade down twice and pick either one and land themself an extra 2nd rounder and 3rd rounder, or more.

[Bufcomments]

True. However, neither is close to being worth the 9th pick. Neither will go before 18... and Clausen will probably drop further.

 

So, if the Bills want either, all they have to do is trade down...and they could even trade down twice and pick either one and land themself an extra 2nd rounder and 3rd rounder, or more.

I think the Bills will stay at 9 and take the best OT on the board, they will get a good one. Plus they need 2 now with Butler gone.

[BillsVet]

Buffalo will have a myriad of options at 9, if they choose to remain there. With huge needs at LT, NT, RT, OLB, and QB they can go a variety of different directions. It's kinda like 2006 redux; a rebuilding team with needs all over the field provides them with plenty of options.

 

QB's are overdrafted each year, so it wouldn't surprise me to see someone bite on Bradford and Clausen before Buffalo picks. That just provides them another option to draft for one of their needs.

[Dr. Trooth]

I think the Bills will stay at 9 and take the best OT on the board, they will get a good one. Plus they need 2 now with Butler gone.

 

I say it's an 80% chance they trade down.... and the fact they need a RT and LT is just part of the reason. Bills have 3 challenges...

 

1) Need QB

2) Need 3-4 personnel (NT,LB,DE

3) Need tackles

 

The Bills need to fill a lot of holes. They are likely to trade Schobel, Lynch and Whitner for draft picks, and this years's draft is supposedly deep in OL and DL... both are positions of need for the Bills. They are not going to pay a guy like Davis or Bulaga top 10 money. Neither rates as high as some of the tackles of the past drafts. Think back to last year's draft. Smith, Monroe, Davis in the top 10. Not a lot of production. Oher at 20, Britton, Loadholt, and Vollmer in the 2nd round had way better production than the 3 in the top 10.

 

So, let's say the Bills go into the draft with 10 picks. I believe the Bills strategy will be to trade down from 9 to perhaps 16 and then perhaps from 16 to 24. In doing that, they'll easily have an extra 2nd and 3rd rounder. Now they have 13 picks. They aren't going to select 13 players, but they will use the extra picks to strategically trade up in round 2 and 3 to get their guys.

 

There really is no player at #9 that is going have much of an impact on the Bills, either this coming season or in the following seasons. Mike Williams turned out to be a dog schitt pick, Donte Whitner was a dog schitt pick, Aaron Maybin has been a dog schitt pick. I think the Bills "get it". They struck gold with Wood (28), Byrd (42) Levitre (51), and Nelson (121) last year. So, they will follow a similar path.

[RuntheDamnBall]

True. However, neither is close to being worth the 9th pick. Neither will go before 18... and Clausen will probably drop further.

 

So, if the Bills want either, all they have to do is trade down...and they could even trade down twice and pick either one and land themself an extra 2nd rounder and 3rd rounder, or more.

We're in a time when the trend is to overvalue QBs; 9 of the last 11 #1 overall selections have been QBs despite question marks surrounding a few of them.

 

You're crazy if you think that nobody is going to blink and take a QB in the top 15. Only four times in the past twenty years has the entire league agreed that the QB crop is that poor/questionable, and Bradford is more heralded than those guys despite the injury. The full list is at DraftHistory.com for anyone interested. It's quite the trip through memory lane... with the wreckage of plenty of failed dreams.

 

See:

1991

Dan McGwire (#16 overall) -- after him:

Marinovich (#24) and then

Favre (#33) *whoops!*

 

1996 - worst draft year for QBs ever?

Tony Banks (#42 overall) -- after him:

Bobby Hoying (#85)

Danny Kanell (#130)

 

1997

Jim Druckenmiller (#26 overall) -- after him:

Jake Plummer (#42)

Danny Wuerffel (#99)

 

2000

Chad Pennington (#18)

Giovanni Carmazzi (#65)

Chris Redman (#75)

Tee Martin (#163)

Marc Bulger (#168)

Spergon Wynn (#183)

Tom Brady Patriots (#199) -- whoops!

[DanInUticaTampa]

I would be happy with any of those picks.

[JohnC]

I say it's an 80% chance they trade down.... and the fact they need a RT and LT is just part of the reason. Bills have 3 challenges...

 

1) Need QB

2) Need 3-4 personnel (NT,LB,DE

3) Need tackles

 

The Bills need to fill a lot of holes. They are likely to trade Schobel, Lynch and Whitner for draft picks, and this years's draft is supposedly deep in OL and DL... both are positions of need for the Bills. They are not going to pay a guy like Davis or Bulaga top 10 money. Neither rates as high as some of the tackles of the past drafts. Think back to last year's draft. Smith, Monroe, Davis in the top 10. Not a lot of production. Oher at 20, Britton, Loadholt, and Vollmer in the 2nd round had way better production than the 3 in the top 10.

 

So, let's say the Bills go into the draft with 10 picks. I believe the Bills strategy will be to trade down from 9 to perhaps 16 and then perhaps from 16 to 24. In doing that, they'll easily have an extra 2nd and 3rd rounder. Now they have 13 picks. They aren't going to select 13 players, but they will use the extra picks to strategically trade up in round 2 and 3 to get their guys.

 

There really is no player at #9 that is going have much of an impact on the Bills, either this coming season or in the following seasons. Mike Williams turned out to be a dog schitt pick, Donte Whitner was a dog schitt pick, Aaron Maybin has been a dog schitt pick. I think the Bills "get it". They struck gold with Wood (28), Byrd (42) Levitre (51), and Nelson (121) last year. So, they will follow a similar path.

 

The problem with your scenario of trading down is that a majority of teams would also like to do so. Not only are there financial reasons for moving down but if you can get one of a cluster of players you are interested at a lower pick it would be wise to make the maneuver. You pointed out how a number of our high picks have been busts. The problem is not where we drafted but it is the buffoons who make the selections.

 

If the Bills can get a quality OT or draft a quality player in the nine spot they should just go ahead and do it. This new front office needs to make quality value picks when they get up to the podium and not over think the process. Sometimes when you get too cute and try to outsmart others you end up outsmarting yourself.

[FLFan]

True. However, neither is close to being worth the 9th pick. Neither will go before 18... and Clausen will probably drop further.

 

So, if the Bills want either, all they have to do is trade down...and they could even trade down twice and pick either one and land themself an extra 2nd rounder and 3rd rounder, or more.

 

 

Clearly you do not like either of these guys - fair enough - but both will be long gone before #9. Seattle and Washington will very likley want a QB given who their new leaders are. Hasslebeck is done, and Campbell is not going to be the man in DC. Even Cleveland may go QB and try to trade one of their current stiffs. Most scouts have both Bradford and Clausen as at least top ten and Bradford top 5. I think Shanahan goes with Clausen.

[Throwback Bills]

To Draft or not to Draft a QB.

 

In looking at teams that need or would want to improve the QB play no less than a 1/3 of the league falls in that area.

 

Rams at 1

Bucs at 3

Skins at 4

Seahawks at 6 & 14

Browns at 7

Raiders at 8

 

BILLS at 9

 

Jags at 10

Cards? at 26

Vikings? at 30

Carolina in 2nd Rd

 

This said I don't thinks you trade down to get the only two first round QB's and if they don't rate top ten then they are not Franchise QBs and I wouldn't waste the time.

 

So draft the OT then the NT in second, maybe trade some later round picks ( 6th -7th) to move up into late first/earlier second that would require our current 2nd and 6th round. to work to get an OT and NT 1 -2.

[mob16151]

To Draft or not to Draft a QB.

 

In looking at teams that need or would want to improve the QB play no less than a 1/3 of the league falls in that area.

 

Rams at 1

Bucs at 3

Skins at 4

Seahawks at 6 & 14

Browns at 7

Raiders at 8

 

BILLS at 9

 

Jags at 10

Cards? at 26

Vikings? at 30

Carolina in 2nd Rd

 

This said I don't thinks you trade down to get the only two first round QB's and if they don't rate top ten then they are not Franchise QBs and I wouldn't waste the time.

 

So draft the OT then the NT in second, maybe trade some later round picks ( 6th -7th) to move up into late first/earlier second that would require our current 2nd and 6th round. to work to get an OT and NT 1 -2.

 

Josh Freeman's name ring a bell?

[RuntheDamnBall]

This said I don't thinks you trade down to get the only two first round QB's and if they don't rate top ten then they are not Franchise QBs and I wouldn't waste the time.

You're right, franchise QBs are only available in the top ten.

Sincerely,

Kurt Warner, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Brett Favre and Matt Schaub

[Thurman#1]

True. However, neither is close to being worth the 9th pick. Neither will go before 18... and Clausen will probably drop further.

 

So, if the Bills want either, all they have to do is trade down...and they could even trade down twice and pick either one and land themself an extra 2nd rounder and 3rd rounder, or more.

 

 

Most likely both guys will be gone before they ever reach #9, and as for whether they're worth #9, the overwhelming number of mocks have them gone in the top 6 or so. That's the way it is likely to turn out. And statistically speaking, both guys have played right up there with guys who have succeeded wildly in the NFL. You can't compare them with guys like Leinart, Brady Quinn or DeMarcus Russell; their stats are just superior in completion percentage, YPA and so on. Clausen had 28 TDs and 4 TDs in his senior year, that's incomparable.

 

If you'd like to bet me, say $10 to the American Cancer Society that Clausen lasts past #18, I'd be very willing to take that bet. I'm on an airplane tomorrow, so P.M. me in case I don't remember to get back to this thread.

[Thurman#1]

They are not going to pay a guy like Davis or Bulaga top 10 money. Neither rates as high as some of the tackles of the past drafts. Think back to last year's draft. Smith, Monroe, Davis in the top 10. Not a lot of production. Oher at 20, Britton, Loadholt, and Vollmer in the 2nd round had way better production than the 3 in the top 10.

 

 

Oher, Britton and Loadholt, and very possibly Vollmer as well, are RIGHT tackles, not left tackles. It's much easier finding RTs later, you're right, but good LTs on the other hand, are almost always hard to find.

 

It was exactly because they were RTs that those guys fell, Oher included. The rare guys, the good LTs, you have to pay more and you have to draft higher, because they're simply more valuable. All three of those top ten guys look like they might be very good indeed down the road.

 

The lesson from last year's tackle draft is that LTs take a little longer and you have to get them higher. But everybody already knew that anyway.