Thurman#1 Posted February 23, 2010 Posted February 23, 2010 Who is above replacement value on our offense that we're so worried will turn into an aging commodity? You can find serviceable quarterbacks all the time (Pennington, Collins, etc - not this year, but guys like them). There is always a vet who can step in and run things while a young player is groomed. In fact, Pennington was a beneficiary of this while Testaverde started. It is a lot harder to build up the line. I defy you to show me one situation where the hotshot QB stepped in behind a line as bad as the Bills', and the team was in the playoffs that year or next. Alternatively, I can cite many situations where an able vet ran the show and succeeded because the rest of the pieces were in place, and then a young guy stepped in to improve the team. If you take any three to four year period, you will find, on an even a stable solid OL, two guys, on the average, who either get old, retire unexpectedly (sound familiar?), get injured or simply stop playing well. That's the way things go. Who would be difficult to replace? Wood. Levitre. To some extent, Hangartner. And you're right, you can find serviceable QBs all the time. Just not guys who will take you to the Super Bowl. As long as you don't mind a lot of seasons where you nearly make the playoffs and then occasionally make them and go out after one game, yeah, pick up a Collins or a Simms or a Garcia. Personally, for me, no thanks, but if that kind of future doesn't bother you, yeah, get a serviceable guy. Heck, that's what Fitz is now. And as for your last paragraph, you say "I defy you to show me one situation where the hotshot QB stepped in behind a line as bad as the Bills', and the team was in the playoffs that year or next." Jeez, man, forget the next two years. We are rebuilding. You're going to have to deal with that whether you want to or not. We aren't going to improve over the next two years just by building the o-line and going with Fitz or Brohm or Trent. We have far too many other weaknesses. Three years from now a franchise QB who we get in the draft is going to be coming into his own (or we'll know he's a dud and can move on), and we will also have had time to put together a good line and defense. Try to pick up a QB two or three years from now and it will take him yet another two or three years to get good enough to take the team to the SB (or to find out if he's a dud), and you're statistically unlikely to have a good chance at a franchise guy anyway.
Thurman#1 Posted February 23, 2010 Posted February 23, 2010 Too many questions about any QB to possible kill your franchise with a QB gamble at #9. Build the lines and draft LEfevour in the 3rd or wait until next year when some real franchise QBs will be coming out. Too many questions about picking up a QB IN ANY MANNER. So what do you do? Maximize your odds. How do you do that? Draft in the first round, because that's the way to get the best chance of success. Draft LeFevour in the third and you get a much much lower chance of success than you get by drafting a first-round guy. Those are just the facts. You could be right, LeFevour might be the guy to beat those odds. But it's not smart to bet the next two or three years on it. If you draft a third-round or fourth-round guy, you do it as a flier, knowing the chances of success are somewhere around 5% for guys drafted around there.
BillsVet Posted February 23, 2010 Posted February 23, 2010 Too many questions about picking up a QB IN ANY MANNER. So what do you do? Maximize your odds. How do you do that? Draft in the first round, because that's the way to get the best chance of success. Draft LeFevour in the third and you get a much much lower chance of success than you get by drafting a first-round guy. Those are just the facts. You could be right, LeFevour might be the guy to beat those odds. But it's not smart to bet the next two or three years on it. If you draft a third-round or fourth-round guy, you do it as a flier, knowing the chances of success are somewhere around 5% for guys drafted around there. There have been 77 drafted QB's from 2000-2007 in rounds 3-7. Only Tom Brady and Matt Schaub are the type of signal callers I'd call good to excellent who came of that group. Franchise QB's are found in the first and occasionally in the second rounds. But despite overwhelming evidence demonstrating that solid QB's are found in the first or second, some continue to believe the Bills will luck (there's that word again) into a top QB.
Pete Posted February 23, 2010 Posted February 23, 2010 There have been 77 drafted QB's from 2000-2007 in rounds 3-7. Only Tom Brady and Matt Schaub are the type of signal callers I'd call good to excellent who came of that group. Franchise QB's are found in the first and occasionally in the second rounds. But despite overwhelming evidence demonstrating that solid QB's are found in the first or second, some continue to believe the Bills will luck (there's that word again) into a top QB. 2000-2007 QBs drafted first 3 rounds Chad Pennington Carmazi Michael Vick #1 overall Drew Brees David Carr #1 overall Joey Harrington Patrick Ramsey Josh McNown Carson Palmer #1 overall Byron Leftwich Kyle Boller Rex Grossman Chris Simms Eli #1 overall Philip Rivers Ben Rothlisberger Alex Smith #1 overall Aaron Rogers Jason Campbell Charlie Frye David Greene Vince Young Jay Cutler Matt Leinart Tavares Jackson Brodie Coyle Charlie Whitehurst Jemarcus Russell #1 overall Brady Quinn Kevin Kolb John Beck Drew Stanton Trent Edwards 33 QBs selected in the first 3 rounds 2000-2007, including 6 #1 overall selections. Brees, Rogers, Rothlisberger, Rivers, Palmer are the only signal callers I would deem good to excellent from this group. 5-33 first three rounds, including 6 #1 overall selections. 15% success 2-77 post round 3% 5-33- that is below the Mendozza line. Stay away from QB's in the first round
thewildrabbit Posted February 23, 2010 Posted February 23, 2010 2000-2007 QBs drafted first 3 roundsChad Pennington Carmazi Michael Vick #1 overall Drew Brees David Carr #1 overall Joey Harrington Patrick Ramsey Josh McNown Carson Palmer #1 overall Byron Leftwich Kyle Boller Rex Grossman Chris Simms Eli #1 overall Philip Rivers Ben Rothlisberger Alex Smith #1 overall Aaron Rogers Jason Campbell Charlie Frye David Greene Vince Young Jay Cutler Matt Leinart Tavares Jackson Brodie Coyle Charlie Whitehurst Jemarcus Russell #1 overall Brady Quinn Kevin Kolb John Beck Drew Stanton Trent Edwards 33 QBs selected in the first 3 rounds 2000-2007, including 6 #1 overall selections. Brees, Rogers, Rothlisberger, Rivers, Palmer are the only signal callers I would deem good to excellent from this group. 5-33 first three rounds, including 6 #1 overall selections. 15% success 2-77 post round 3% 5-33- that is below the Mendozza line. Stay away from QB's in the first round So... Its a big crap shoot at best for any QB drafted There are simply so many variables that many coaches don't take into consideration when they draft a new QB. What system did he play in college... can he even learn a new system in a year because this is a "win now" league. Footwork-throwing technique-dropback passing-film study-tunnel vision,can he throw between the lanes he gets in the pros-does he have an NFL arm-the speed of the game is so much faster and he has much less time for decisions-desire can't be judged, how bad does he want to win?,will he get paid and disappear? The "clincher" for Bill Polian when he drafted Payton Manning over Ryan Leaf was the statement Manning gave in a pre draft interview to Polian. He simply stated... "if you don't draft me I'll come back here and kick your ass for the next ten years". Which took considerable balls to say to a GM about to draft him IMO. Then again Jim Kelly had a swagger which was very similar, very cocky. As coaches you have to ask: do we have a QB coach and OC who can properly develop a rookie QB? Do we have a proper running game and O line to support the kid while he is learning the ropes? I'd have to say, if you were to look up the players listed above, at the years they were drafted you would most likely find that the players that failed went into situations they were clearly not properly prepared for...new young QB's typically get thrown into the fire on bad teams with bad / poor coaching and are expected to win NOW. They are expected to carry the team to wins when most of them are not given enough time to develop or given the proper supporting players around them to help them win.
thewildrabbit Posted February 23, 2010 Posted February 23, 2010 San Francisco head coach Bill Walsh is probably defined as the most innovative offensive mind to have coached the last 30 years, his coaching tree has 30+ good coaches that learned under him, and lots of those are head coaches. Walsh stated that it generally took 3-4 to properly develop a QB. Now I'd imagine that statement only holds true if he is in the same system with the same coaches and on a decent team. Now, after reading the last two paragraphs, what does that tell you about Trent Edwards? 10 games in 2007--14 games in 2008--8 games in 2009. Kinda tough to learn the ropes from the sidelines after running for your life game after game. The kid had some real morons teaching him, bad O line, in a poor scheme with a rookie play caller and no QB coach his last year, WTF. He went to college at Stanford so he has the smarts, Bill Walsh gave him a glowing endorsement when the Bills drafted him, good enough for me. He is every accurate with the ball. He got his ass handed to him every game in college and now he has had his ass handed to him by pros. I'd say Gailey needs to give this guy a chance to play on a decent team behind a decent O line in a decent scheme with an experienced play caller, that is, if the last staff didn't completely ruin him. OTOH, should the current "brain trust" at OBD draft a QB or defensive player with that first pick and not a LT...I'd say let the kid go on his way to find his fortune with a different team.
Geno Smith's Arm Posted February 23, 2010 Posted February 23, 2010 If you take any three to four year period, you will find, on an even a stable solid OL, two guys, on the average, who either get old, retire unexpectedly (sound familiar?), get injured or simply stop playing well. That's the way things go. Who would be difficult to replace? Wood. Levitre. To some extent, Hangartner. And you're right, you can find serviceable QBs all the time. Just not guys who will take you to the Super Bowl. As long as you don't mind a lot of seasons where you nearly make the playoffs and then occasionally make them and go out after one game, yeah, pick up a Collins or a Simms or a Garcia. Personally, for me, no thanks, but if that kind of future doesn't bother you, yeah, get a serviceable guy. Heck, that's what Fitz is now. And as for your last paragraph, you say "I defy you to show me one situation where the hotshot QB stepped in behind a line as bad as the Bills', and the team was in the playoffs that year or next." Jeez, man, forget the next two years. We are rebuilding. You're going to have to deal with that whether you want to or not. We aren't going to improve over the next two years just by building the o-line and going with Fitz or Brohm or Trent. We have far too many other weaknesses. Three years from now a franchise QB who we get in the draft is going to be coming into his own (or we'll know he's a dud and can move on), and we will also have had time to put together a good line and defense. Try to pick up a QB two or three years from now and it will take him yet another two or three years to get good enough to take the team to the SB (or to find out if he's a dud), and you're statistically unlikely to have a good chance at a franchise guy anyway. For some reason, people can't seem to understand that part. I am confident that almost anyone (maybe not Matt Millen) that makes it to the upper levels of NFL front offices understands though, and that's why they spend so many high picks chasing down a franchise QB. Without one, and until one is found, EVERY GM or head coach knows his job is on shaky ground. I'm sure the primary goal of the new guys is to get a QB somehow, moreso than find a LT or a freaking nose tackle. Whether they have an opportunity to get a "Franchise QB" with the 1st rd. pick IN THIS DRAFT, that we don't know.
Orton's Arm Posted February 23, 2010 Posted February 23, 2010 I think you are right that this team needs a franchise QB if it wants to win and this is a priority. The thing I disagree with though is if anyone insists that the best way to get a franchise QB is the draft since the simple fact of the case is that franchise QBs and even the first rounder you crave have a far higher record of being acquired by teams in the host of other methods such as FA, trade, late round draft picks, and even UDFAs. Actually the very recent success of Peyton Manning and RoboQB have been by far the general exception to the rule as one needs to go back to the 'Boys drafting Aikman to find a QB whom a team drafted in the first leading his team to an SB win. This team simply has too many holes to fill than to forgo more likely stud players who drop to them at #9 than risk putting all their hopes on the recently twice injured Bradford who will be forced to play behind an OL which did not devote ots 1st to reinforcing the OL or forcing the new QB to be productive as our new 3-4 already running short at OLB talent (the current depth chart shows two good back-ups at best starting for us at OLB. Definiitely get a franchise QB but drafting any of the likely 1st rounders likely to go in the first would probably mean condemninf this team to at least a losing 10 and even worse if we have to trade up to give away even more assets to get him while we have so many holes. Someone on these boards did an analysis recently which showed that, of the quarterbacks playing at a good-to-elite level right now, almost all of them were taken in the first 33 picks of the draft. The Tom Brady's of the world are rare exceptions. As for the Troy Aikman statistic you mentioned: there are a lot of reasons for that. Let's look at the teams that won the Super Bowl since the Cowboys won in '96. '97 Packers won with Favre. They acquired him through trade--a 2nd rounder I believe--when he was a young, unproven player. '98 & '99. Broncos won with Elway. Elway was initially taken first overall by some other team--I don't remember which--but held out, and became a Bronco before he'd played a down with that other team. 2000: Rams with Warner at QB. Kurt Warner stories are very rare, but this was one of them. 2001: Ravens with Dilfer at QB. Clearly, that team won despite its passing game, not because of it. 2002: Patriots with Brady at QB. Tom Brady stories are very rare, but this was one of them. 2003: Tampa Bay Bucs with Brad Johnson at QB. While they got solid (but not great) play from the QB position, that team won because of its defense. 2004 - 2005. More Patriots wins. Apparently the Tom Brady story has more than one chapter. 2006 Steelers with Roethlisberger at QB. Taken in the first round, I might add! 2007: Colts with Manning at QB. Another guy taken in the first round! 2008: NY Giants with Eli Manning at QB. Taken first overall, but was traded to the Giants before he'd played a down for the Chargers. 2009: Another SB win by the Roethlisberger-led Steelers. 2010: Saints, with Brees as QB. So basically, the statistic you cited was an anomaly. That anomaly was caused by several factors: 1) teams trading away early draft picks for young, unproven quarterbacks. (Favre, Elway, and Eli Manning.) This is a lot like drafting quarterbacks with early picks; but is treated differently for the purposes of that Aikman statistic. 2) The fact that, between them, Kurt Warner and Tom Brady led their teams to four Super Bowl wins. How many undrafted free agents can you name that have played anywhere nearly as well as Kurt Warner? How many second day draft picks over the last 15 years have been remotely in Tom Brady's neighborhood? Both those guys are exceptions; but they're exceptions that have collected a lot of Super Bowl rings over the years! 3) The fact that some teams won because of their defenses, with their offenses being an afterthought. (Ravens and Bucs.) A team like that doesn't need elite play from the QB position--a Trent Dilfer is enough. Those three anomalies account for ten of the Super Bowls on the above list. And as you noted, first round QBs have once again started leading their teams to Super Bowl wins--Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning being recent examples.
Geno Smith's Arm Posted February 23, 2010 Posted February 23, 2010 San Francisco head coach Bill Walsh is probably defined as the most innovative offensive mind to have coached the last 30 years, his coaching tree has 30+ good coaches that learned under him, and lots of those are head coaches. Walsh stated that it generally took 3-4 to properly develop a QB. Now I'd imagine that statement only holds true if he is in the same system with the same coaches and on a decent team. Now, after reading the last two paragraphs, what does that tell you about Trent Edwards? 10 games in 2007--14 games in 2008--8 games in 2009. Kinda tough to learn the ropes from the sidelines after running for your life game after game. The kid had some real morons teaching him, bad O line, in a poor scheme with a rookie play caller and no QB coach his last year, WTF. He went to college at Stanford so he has the smarts, Bill Walsh gave him a glowing endorsement when the Bills drafted him, good enough for me. He is every accurate with the ball. He got his ass handed to him every game in college and now he has had his ass handed to him by pros. I'd say Gailey needs to give this guy a chance to play on a decent team behind a decent O line in a decent scheme with an experienced play caller, that is, if the last staff didn't completely ruin him. OTOH, should the current "brain trust" at OBD draft a QB or defensive player with that first pick and not a LT...I'd say let the kid go on his way to find his fortune with a different team. None of the ex-Bills QB's have gone on to do ANYTHING. Bill Walsh gave a Stanford QB a glowing recommendation, what a surprise! By the way, the photo under your name is ONE PLAY, probably a draw play that was run after 3 straight completions by the No-Huddle, in a 3 wide set, against a Dime Defense. Yeah, there were some big holes, that's what happens when you have a HOF QB that puts a defense on it's heels with a record breaking passing attack. One of the best ways to help out your O-line is to have a QB that poses a threat of some kind.
Geno Smith's Arm Posted February 23, 2010 Posted February 23, 2010 Someone on these boards did an analysis recently which showed that, of the quarterbacks playing at a good-to-elite level right now, almost all of them were taken in the first 33 picks of the draft. The Tom Brady's of the world are rare exceptions. As for the Troy Aikman statistic you mentioned: there are a lot of reasons for that. Let's look at the teams that won the Super Bowl since the Cowboys won in '96. '97 Packers won with Favre. They acquired him through trade--a 2nd rounder I believe--when he was a young, unproven player. '98 & '99. Broncos won with Elway. Elway was initially taken first overall by some other team--I don't remember which--but held out, and became a Bronco before he'd played a down with that other team. 2000: Rams with Warner at QB. Kurt Warner stories are very rare, but this was one of them. 2001: Ravens with Dilfer at QB. Clearly, that team won despite its passing game, not because of it. 2002: Patriots with Brady at QB. Tom Brady stories are very rare, but this was one of them. 2003: Tampa Bay Bucs with Brad Johnson at QB. While they got solid (but not great) play from the QB position, that team won because of its defense. 2004 - 2005. More Patriots wins. Apparently the Tom Brady story has more than one chapter. 2006 Steelers with Roethlisberger at QB. Taken in the first round, I might add! 2007: Colts with Manning at QB. Another guy taken in the first round! 2008: NY Giants with Eli Manning at QB. Taken first overall, but was traded to the Giants before he'd played a down for the Chargers. 2009: Another SB win by the Roethlisberger-led Steelers. 2010: Saints, with Brees as QB. So basically, the statistic you cited was an anomaly. That anomaly was caused by several factors: 1) teams trading away early draft picks for young, unproven quarterbacks. (Favre, Elway, and Eli Manning.) This is a lot like drafting quarterbacks with early picks; but is treated differently for the purposes of that Aikman statistic. 2) The fact that, between them, Kurt Warner and Tom Brady led their teams to four Super Bowl wins. How many undrafted free agents can you name that have played anywhere nearly as well as Kurt Warner? How many second day draft picks over the last 15 years have been remotely in Tom Brady's neighborhood? Both those guys are exceptions; but they're exceptions that have collected a lot of Super Bowl rings over the years! 3) The fact that some teams won because of their defenses, with their offenses being an afterthought. (Ravens and Bucs.) A team like that doesn't need elite play from the QB position--a Trent Dilfer is enough. Those three anomalies account for ten of the Super Bowls on the above list. And as you noted, first round QBs have once again started leading their teams to Super Bowl wins--Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning being recent examples. You have it all wrong man. The Bills should be searching for a mediocre quarterback. They should be sifting through the 6th and 7th rounds, panning for copper in the form of the next Brad Johnson/ Trent Dilfer. Plus, who wants to see a bunch of touchdowns? I like those 9-6 field goal battles! Clock-killing quarterbacks appeal to the traditionalist in me! Just bore the opposition, AND the stadium full of people, and squeeze the intensity out of every game.
....lybob Posted February 23, 2010 Posted February 23, 2010 No offense to Sam Bradford but every highlight I see of him he had no DL closer than 5 yards and his WRs are open by 5-10 yards- that's not his fault but in the NFL he's going to have to make plays running for his life, with 6,5 300lbs DEs and DTs in his face and CBs covering his WRs like a blanket- maybe he can do that- but I'm not anointing him yet.
GrudginglyPessimistic Posted February 23, 2010 Posted February 23, 2010 Now let me get this straight, you are declaring the real world events which occurred for a decade an anomaly and events that have occurred for two years the tried and true norm. Yeah right. In fact what I think your recitation of the events tell us is yes this a QB league with QB being the critical position to obtain your franchise player (well duhh everyone knows how important the QB is in this league. However, what your dozen years of events simply tells us is yes get a franchise QB, but that the draft is far from the only way to get a franchise QB or even that drafting a player #1 is far from the only way to get a 1st round QB. I think the facts you lay out pretty clearly point one to look for someone else than drafting a QB with the #9. Someone on these boards did an analysis recently which showed that, of the quarterbacks playing at a good-to-elite level right now, almost all of them were taken in the first 33 picks of the draft. The Tom Brady's of the world are rare exceptions. As for the Troy Aikman statistic you mentioned: there are a lot of reasons for that. Let's look at the teams that won the Super Bowl since the Cowboys won in '96. '97 Packers won with Favre. They acquired him through trade--a 2nd rounder I believe--when he was a young, unproven player. '98 & '99. Broncos won with Elway. Elway was initially taken first overall by some other team--I don't remember which--but held out, and became a Bronco before he'd played a down with that other team. 2000: Rams with Warner at QB. Kurt Warner stories are very rare, but this was one of them. 2001: Ravens with Dilfer at QB. Clearly, that team won despite its passing game, not because of it. 2002: Patriots with Brady at QB. Tom Brady stories are very rare, but this was one of them. 2003: Tampa Bay Bucs with Brad Johnson at QB. While they got solid (but not great) play from the QB position, that team won because of its defense. 2004 - 2005. More Patriots wins. Apparently the Tom Brady story has more than one chapter. 2006 Steelers with Roethlisberger at QB. Taken in the first round, I might add! 2007: Colts with Manning at QB. Another guy taken in the first round! 2008: NY Giants with Eli Manning at QB. Taken first overall, but was traded to the Giants before he'd played a down for the Chargers. 2009: Another SB win by the Roethlisberger-led Steelers. 2010: Saints, with Brees as QB. So basically, the statistic you cited was an anomaly. That anomaly was caused by several factors: 1) teams trading away early draft picks for young, unproven quarterbacks. (Favre, Elway, and Eli Manning.) This is a lot like drafting quarterbacks with early picks; but is treated differently for the purposes of that Aikman statistic. 2) The fact that, between them, Kurt Warner and Tom Brady led their teams to four Super Bowl wins. How many undrafted free agents can you name that have played anywhere nearly as well as Kurt Warner? How many second day draft picks over the last 15 years have been remotely in Tom Brady's neighborhood? Both those guys are exceptions; but they're exceptions that have collected a lot of Super Bowl rings over the years! 3) The fact that some teams won because of their defenses, with their offenses being an afterthought. (Ravens and Bucs.) A team like that doesn't need elite play from the QB position--a Trent Dilfer is enough. Those three anomalies account for ten of the Super Bowls on the above list. And as you noted, first round QBs have once again started leading their teams to Super Bowl wins--Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning being recent examples.
folz Posted February 23, 2010 Posted February 23, 2010 To build on Pete's post or to give a slightly different take on it, here are the 1st round QBs for the last 15 years: 2009: #1 Matt Stafford Det, #5 Mark Sanchez NYJ, #17 Josh Freeman TB 2008: #3 Matt Ryan Atl, #18 Joe Flacco BAL 2007: #1 JaMarcus Russell Oak, #22 Brady Quinn Cle 2006: #3 Vince Young Ten, #10 Matt Leinart Az, #11 Jay Cutler Den 2005: #1 Alex Smith SF, #24 Aaron Rodgers GB, #25 Jason Campbell Was 2004: #1 Eli Manning SD/NYG, #4 Philip Rivers NYG/SD, #11 Ben Roethlisberger Pitt, #22 JP Losman Buf 2003: #1 Carson Palmer Cin, #7 Byron Leftwhich JAX, #19 Kyle Boller Bal, #22 Rex Grossman Chi 2002: #1 David Carr Hous, #3 Joey Harrington Det, #32 Patrick Ramsey Was 2001: #1 Michael Vick Atl 2000: #18 Chad Pennington NYJ 1999: #1 Tim Couch Cle, #2 Donovan McNabb Phi, #3 Akili Smith Cin, #11 Daunte Culpepper Min, #12 Cade McNown Chi 1998: #1 Peyton Manning Ind, #2 Ryan Leaf SD 1997: #26 Jim Druckenmiller SF 1996: No QBs selected in the 1st round 1995: #3 Steve Mcnair Tenn, #5 Kerry Collins Car 36 QBs drafted in the first round during the last 15 years Ok this next section is subjective (feel free to argue) but my best take: Very good to great QBs: Steve McNair, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer Good starters (who may be poised to move into the first category): Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger Guys who have been solid starters: Kerry Collins, Chad Pennington, Byron Leftwich (kind of) Too early to tell (but with potential): Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Vince Young Interesting to note: in that 15 years 10 teams took 2 stabs at 1st round QBs: Bal, Det, Was, Atl, NYJ, Cle, Cin, Chi, SD, SF; 14 of the current starting QBs were 1st rounders (so 18 current NFL starters were not 1st rounders) So 36 QBs drafted/ 11 good QBs and 6 who may become good (let's say 3 do and 3 don't of those 6) So like 14 of 36 or about 39% good QBs and 61% busts (again open to argument) but maybe only 8-11 (in 15 years) that are or may become/be considered franchise QBs
Thurman#1 Posted February 23, 2010 Posted February 23, 2010 It didn't state he was drafted, I said he arrived at the same time as Wolford and Hull. I think was Jim Kelly fortunate that he didn't play for the Bills until 86 as he got game experience with the USFL as did center Kent Hull. So Jim Kelly didn't come into Buffalo as a "rookie", he had game experience. He also stated when he first arrived in Buffalo," I can't do this by myself". Meaning he knew he needed a decent team around him, Bill Polian gave that to him Lastly, Bill Polian didn't draft Jim Kelly as he was GM from 1986-1993, so as soon as he was made GM he drafted for the O line! You say "I said he arrived at the same time as Wolford and Hull." Right, well, I'm saying that's beside the point. Kelly was drafted before the OL was, and that is a fact. And yeah, you're right, as soon as Polian became GM, he drafted O-Line. Why? BECAUSE HE ALREADY HAD A QB IN KELLY!!!! The Golden Rule of the Draft: Never pass up a chance at a franchise QB, unless you already have one, and Polian already had his QB, Kelly. Again, the team followed the Golden Rule of the Draft. Doubt that he considered QB the key? Look at what he did in Indy. First guy drafted? Peyton Manning, even though they had Harbaugh, who had taken them to the league championship game one year before. Polian's first draft pick in Carolina? QB Kerry Collins. Polian understands and lives by the Golden Rule of the Draft!
Thurman#1 Posted February 23, 2010 Posted February 23, 2010 Polian didn't become the GM until December 30, 1985 so he didn't draft Kelly. You're right, good catch, but again, Polian followed the Golden Rule.
Thurman#1 Posted February 23, 2010 Posted February 23, 2010 Wabbit Season. DUCK season! Nice one, you cracked me up.
Thurman#1 Posted February 23, 2010 Posted February 23, 2010 2000-2007 QBs drafted first 3 roundsChad Pennington Carmazi Michael Vick #1 overall Drew Brees David Carr #1 overall Joey Harrington Patrick Ramsey Josh McNown Carson Palmer #1 overall Byron Leftwich Kyle Boller Rex Grossman Chris Simms Eli #1 overall Philip Rivers Ben Rothlisberger Alex Smith #1 overall Aaron Rogers Jason Campbell Charlie Frye David Greene Vince Young Jay Cutler Matt Leinart Tavares Jackson Brodie Coyle Charlie Whitehurst Jemarcus Russell #1 overall Brady Quinn Kevin Kolb John Beck Drew Stanton Trent Edwards 33 QBs selected in the first 3 rounds 2000-2007, including 6 #1 overall selections. Brees, Rogers, Rothlisberger, Rivers, Palmer are the only signal callers I would deem good to excellent from this group. 5-33 first three rounds, including 6 #1 overall selections. 15% success 2-77 post round 3% 5-33- that is below the Mendozza line. Stay away from QB's in the first round Eli Manning wins a Super Bowl and you don't consider him good to excellent? Puh-leeze. Kolb still has a shot, Leinart still has a shot. Vince Young is there no matter what you consider, Chad Pennington, if he hadn't been injured, would absolutely have been excellent, and Alex Smith still has a very good shot. So you add in Eli Manning and either Vince Young or Chad Pennington (I'm giving you a break by not adding both guys) and remember that three more guys may very well become good ones. 7/33. Just above 20%. Yup. Those numbers absolutely prove that you should draft a franchise guy. Because throw out the third rounders and the percentages go up. Throw out the second rounders and they again go up slightly. And nowhere else, no other way of getting a QB even comes close to 20%, not even close. Second rounders go down to about 10%. Third rounders even further, and the odds go down the further down you go, with a brief uptick at the 6th round for Tom Brady only. FAs are also low. Trades are also low. UDFAs are a bit higher, because of Warner and Romo, but still way below the rate for first-rounders. There is NO WAY TO GET A GOOD QB at a higher rate. So you just suck it up, and you take the highest percentage way, and that is picking in the first round.
Thurman#1 Posted February 23, 2010 Posted February 23, 2010 For some reason, people can't seem to understand that part. I am confident that almost anyone (maybe not Matt Millen) that makes it to the upper levels of NFL front offices understands though, and that's why they spend so many high picks chasing down a franchise QB. Without one, and until one is found, EVERY GM or head coach knows his job is on shaky ground. I'm sure the primary goal of the new guys is to get a QB somehow, moreso than find a LT or a freaking nose tackle. Whether they have an opportunity to get a "Franchise QB" with the 1st rd. pick IN THIS DRAFT, that we don't know. Right on. Nix has a pretty good idea, though, or will soon. And if he likes either Clausen or Bradford, and they fall, he absolutely will pick him, and he might even think of moving up a bit.
Thurman#1 Posted February 23, 2010 Posted February 23, 2010 To build on Pete's post or to give a slightly different take on it, here are the 1st round QBs for the last 15 years: 2009: #1 Matt Stafford Det, #5 Mark Sanchez NYJ, #17 Josh Freeman TB 2008: #3 Matt Ryan Atl, #18 Joe Flacco BAL 2007: #1 JaMarcus Russell Oak, #22 Brady Quinn Cle 2006: #3 Vince Young Ten, #10 Matt Leinart Az, #11 Jay Cutler Den 2005: #1 Alex Smith SF, #24 Aaron Rodgers GB, #25 Jason Campbell Was 2004: #1 Eli Manning SD/NYG, #4 Philip Rivers NYG/SD, #11 Ben Roethlisberger Pitt, #22 JP Losman Buf 2003: #1 Carson Palmer Cin, #7 Byron Leftwhich JAX, #19 Kyle Boller Bal, #22 Rex Grossman Chi 2002: #1 David Carr Hous, #3 Joey Harrington Det, #32 Patrick Ramsey Was 2001: #1 Michael Vick Atl 2000: #18 Chad Pennington NYJ 1999: #1 Tim Couch Cle, #2 Donovan McNabb Phi, #3 Akili Smith Cin, #11 Daunte Culpepper Min, #12 Cade McNown Chi 1998: #1 Peyton Manning Ind, #2 Ryan Leaf SD 1997: #26 Jim Druckenmiller SF 1996: No QBs selected in the 1st round 1995: #3 Steve Mcnair Tenn, #5 Kerry Collins Car 36 QBs drafted in the first round during the last 15 years Ok this next section is subjective (feel free to argue) but my best take: Very good to great QBs: Steve McNair, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer Good starters (who may be poised to move into the first category): Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger Guys who have been solid starters: Kerry Collins, Chad Pennington, Byron Leftwich (kind of) Too early to tell (but with potential): Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Vince Young Interesting to note: in that 15 years 10 teams took 2 stabs at 1st round QBs: Bal, Det, Was, Atl, NYJ, Cle, Cin, Chi, SD, SF; 14 of the current starting QBs were 1st rounders (so 18 current NFL starters were not 1st rounders) So 36 QBs drafted/ 11 good QBs and 6 who may become good (let's say 3 do and 3 don't of those 6) So like 14 of 36 or about 39% good QBs and 61% busts (again open to argument) but maybe only 8-11 (in 15 years) that are or may become/be considered franchise QBs Excellent post. And if you do the same thing for second-rounders, third-rounders, all the way out to the end, UDFAs, FAs, etc., you get lower odds. It might make people angry, but statistically speaking, no other way of getting a franchise QB is even close to picking one in the first. Getting a franchise QB in ANY WAY is a crapshoot. So all you can do is put your money on 6 or 8 instead of 11, because the odds are just better. And the play with the highest odds is using the Golden Rule.
thewildrabbit Posted February 23, 2010 Posted February 23, 2010 I know that 1990 superbowl is difficult for Bills fans to watch, you know SB 25, "wide right". The one where a back up scrub at QB ...a power running game ...great defense ...beat the highest scoring team of that year. The Bills were 21 point favorites and should have destroyed the NY Giants... should have! Did any of you watch the New England Patriot-Baltimore Ravens wildcard game they played in New England this year? Joe Flacco went 4-10 for 34 yards and yet the Ravens beat the Patriots In New England for a 33-14 win. Anyone care to explain how the Ravens won that game with the winning QB completing only 4 passes in 10 attempts for a total of 34 yards?
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