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2nd & 3rd round QB's

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Tortured Soul Veteran

Tortured Soul

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"Granted the jury is still out on Matt Schaub but thus far he has been a bit of a disappointment in Houston and let’s just say that the odds aren’t in his favor."

 

Really? He led the league in passing yards this season, was 5th in TDs and 7th in rating. I wish that disappointment was on our team.

 

As for his numbers, 2 of the 14 QBs drafted since 2001 made the Pro Bowl this season. Not that bad.

 

And the reason he started counting from 1992? Brett Favre was a second-rounder in 1991.

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Thurman#1 Hall of Famer

Thurman#1

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"Granted the jury is still out on Matt Schaub but thus far he has been a bit of a disappointment in Houston and let’s just say that the odds aren’t in his favor."

 

Really? He led the league in passing yards this season, was 5th in TDs and 7th in rating. I wish that disappointment was on our team.

 

As for his numbers, 2 of the 14 QBs drafted since 2001 made the Pro Bowl this season. Not that bad.

 

And the reason he started counting from 1992? Brett Favre was a second-rounder in 1991.

 

 

 

Schaub may have turned the corner this year, or may not have. Could be a one-year wonder, we won't know for another year or two. But let's add him as a success and throw it back a year earlier so Favre is included. But he was counting QBs who are successful FOR THE TEAM THAT DRAFTED THEM. How do Schaub or Favre fit in? They don't.

 

But again, let's IMAGINE that they were playing for the teams that drafted them. And let's IMAGINE that we know that Schaub will be a success. That puts it at 3/33, about 9%, which is still way below the odds you get if you draft a first-rounder. And again, you have to IMAGINE that Schaub and Favre still play for the team that drafted them.

 

The end result is that second and third-rounders are still a much lower percentage chance. Much lower.

 

 

Schaub turned the corner this year, btw, how did montana work out?

 

Its all a crap shoot, how many 1st rd qb's busted during that time span he listed, and what was their collective salary in comparison to the 2nd and 3rd rounders?

 

 

The fact that you have to go back so far proves his point. Montana was drafted in '79. How many crap QBs were drafted in the 2nd and 3rd rounds since then?

 

It's a much much worse chance for a 2nd or 3rd rounder than a first-rounder. Fact.

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Mickey Veteran

Mickey

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Schaub may have turned the corner this year, or may not have. Could be a one-year wonder, we won't know for another year or two. But let's add him as a success and throw it back a year earlier so Favre is included. But he was counting QBs who are successful FOR THE TEAM THAT DRAFTED THEM. How do Schaub or Favre fit in? They don't.

 

But again, let's IMAGINE that they were playing for the teams that drafted them. And let's IMAGINE that we know that Schaub will be a success. That puts it at 3/33, about 9%, which is still way below the odds you get if you draft a first-rounder. And again, you have to IMAGINE that Schaub and Favre still play for the team that drafted them.

 

The end result is that second and third-rounders are still a much lower percentage chance. Much lower.

 

 

 

 

 

The fact that you have to go back so far proves his point. Montana was drafted in '79. How many crap QBs were drafted in the 2nd and 3rd rounds since then?

 

It's a much much worse chance for a 2nd or 3rd rounder than a first-rounder. Fact.

 

Citing one example to disprove a body of statistical evidence is a common tactic hereabouts. Of course the odds of finding a top QB are much better in the first round. The handful of exceptions though are what get noticed such as Ryan Leaf and Joe Montana. Those kinds of stories are more interesting precisely because they are unusual, ie, out of the norm. You and I would put our money on what usually happens, not on unusual, rare outcomes. Others would rather bet on lightning striking twice in the same place.

 

Yes, its all a crap shoot but the odds are better in the first round than anywhere else and in the NFL these days, a good QB is essential to winning. So sooner or later you have to roll the dice and my vote is that we do that where the odds are best, in the first round, even if we have to trade up. Provided of course that our scouts think that Clausen and/or Bradford have the right stuff. If they don't, then we shouldn't take either them in any round.

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grelit Rookie

grelit

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Lefevour is a better quarterback than Clausen. Clausen is immature like Tony Romo. Lefevour is teachable and will only get better. Clausen peaked at Notre Dame.

 

How do you know this? Are you basing your opinions on what "other experts" are saying. Do you know a coach on the staff of Notre Dame with inside info? Do you know someone that has inside knowledge to Dan Lefevour?

 

What I am trying to say is, how do any of us really know the out come of any of these QBs???

 

Drives me nuts....

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bills_red Veteran

bills_red

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"Granted the jury is still out on Matt Schaub but thus far he has been a bit of a disappointment in Houston and let’s just say that the odds aren’t in his favor."

 

Really? He led the league in passing yards this season, was 5th in TDs and 7th in rating. I wish that disappointment was on our team.

 

As for his numbers, 2 of the 14 QBs drafted since 2001 made the Pro Bowl this season. Not that bad.

 

And the reason he started counting from 1992? Brett Favre was a second-rounder in 1991.

 

yea.....it was wrote in 2008.

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daveydanceswithwolves UDFA

daveydanceswithwolves

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Lefevour is a better quarterback than Clausen. Clausen is immature like Tony Romo. Lefevour is teachable and will only get better. Clausen peaked at Notre Dame.

 

clausen scares the crap out of me, and the fact that a high percentage of people on TBD are so high on him scares the crap out of me. he reminds me too much of jp losman when he was coming out of college. he only produced for one season.

does anyone remember watching those first two years of clausen's college ball?..it was painful. imagine what it will be like when he hits the nfl level where coverage is tight all around ..(PAINFUL)

 

...and here comes the rebuttal.

"pro-system, cold weather, strong arm"

i dont care, he scares me.

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Bring Back Kelly Rookie

Bring Back Kelly

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clausen scares the crap out of me, and the fact that a high percentage of people on TBD are so high on him scares the crap out of me. he reminds me too much of jp losman when he was coming out of college. he only produced for one season.

does anyone remember watching those first two years of clausen's college ball?..it was painful. imagine what it will be like when he hits the nfl level where coverage is tight all around ..(PAINFUL)

 

...and here comes the rebuttal.

"pro-system, cold weather, strong arm"

i dont care, he scares me.

Javon Sneed and Tony Pike scare me. If we get a QB in the second or third, Please do not get either of these guys. I'd rather wait a year and get that rockhead Mallet, if that were the case. But I'm all for LeFevour. I'd love to see the Bills get him. If he had a receiver like Golden Tate in College, he would be far better than Clausen. He had nobody good to throw too.

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