ProFootballWeekly.com (Nolan Nawrocki)

[DanInUticaTampa]

Based on what? That's the first I have heard about that.

 

It has been said over and over again by many scouts that Clausen has a serious attitude problem that worries them. It has been out in the open for awhile now.

[DanInUticaTampa]

So take an OLB when our DL sucks? thanks for posting Tom Donahoe

 

Well, there all the Dlinemen that would be worth that pick are already going to be taken before we pick. Better to take mcclain and draft a lineman later. I mean, seriously, Kyle Williams got defensive MVP for us. I don't think our Dline is the worst thing.

[....lybob]

right now I'd rate the OTs like this

 

tier 1. Okung (consensus #1)

 

tier 2. Bulaga (most ready to start, less upside?), Davis (best run blocker, weight problems?), Campbell (most athletic, least experienced)

 

tier 3. Charles Brown (moving up), Trent Williams( formally in tier 2, then downgrade but now seems to be moving up again), Iupati (if rated as a OT)

 

tier 4. Vladimir Ducasse (formerly a 2nd-3rd rounder now an end of 1st middle of 2nd guy)

 

OTs of interest - Jared Veldheer 6,8 325 425lbs power clean 4.9 40 small school low level competition.

Ciron Black- formerly rated as a top 25 player now downgraded to 3rd -4th round due to athletic concerns made 53 starts at OLT for LSU (just as I'm skeptical of a guy shooting up the boards I wonder about the guy who suddenly falls - football people seem to have a heard mentality)

[Thurman#1]

Anyone who knows ProFootballWeekly.com or Nolan Nawrocki knows he's the best in the business. Second to nobody and that includes Mike Mayock, a distant second. Tonight he has released his first mock draft:

 

http://www.profootballweekly.com/2010/01/3...ackles-dominate

 

Not too happy with snagging the 4th rated OT with the #9 pick. Our o-line is a priority, but I'd be happier with the best LB in the draft, Rolando McLain, if available.

 

 

 

Nawrocki is very good. Gosselin is the best in the business, and it's not even particularly close.

 

Here are the rankings, based on their success in picking over the last three years:

 

http://www.thehuddlereport.com/Free/mockdraftscoring.shtml

 

 

Mayock isn't listed this year, I believe because he realized that actually predicting put him at risk of being wrong, and didn't make any official mock last year.

 

The year before, though, he was eligible with three official mocks for the three previous years, and he was ranked high, only three or four places below Kiper, but well in the top 15, which is pretty impressive but not godlike as the Mayock worshippers here on these boards would have it.

[Thurman#1]

I find it very hard to believe that only 1 QB will taken in the first round and even then not until pick 12 or so.

 

 

Take another look at the #4 pick in Nawrocki's mock.

[Thurman#1]

Plus the lowest TD to INT ratio of the top 6 QB's...

 

 

 

Clausen had 28 TDs to 4 INTs and you're saying there are 5 guys who are higher? You'd have to show me that.

[Fewell733]

Nawrocki is very good. Gosselin is the best in the business, and it's not even particularly close.

 

Gosselin and Nawrocki are the gold standard. Gosselin though releases his top 100 like the day before the draft and its widely believed that NFL scouts leak him a lot of draft board info. I'm not sure he really scouts them or just reports what he hears from the people actually in the know.

[yungmack]

Nawrocki is very good. Gosselin is the best in the business, and it's not even particularly close.

 

Here are the rankings, based on their success in picking over the last three years:

 

http://www.thehuddlereport.com/Free/mockdraftscoring.shtml

 

 

Mayock isn't listed this year, I believe because he realized that actually predicting put him at risk of being wrong, and didn't make any official mock last year.

 

The year before, though, he was eligible with three official mocks for the three previous years, and he was ranked high, only three or four places below Kiper, but well in the top 15, which is pretty impressive but not godlike as the Mayock worshippers here on these boards would have it.

Mayock can only say who the best pick for a team would be. He can't make them pick that player. And I think if you go back over his choices for just the Bills and who the Brain Trust actually picked, he sure looks a lot brighter than the folks at OBD.

[Thoner7]

Anyone who knows ProFootballWeekly.com or Nolan Nawrocki knows he's the best in the business. Second to nobody and that includes Mike Mayock, a distant second. Tonight he has released his first mock draft:

 

http://www.profootballweekly.com/2010/01/3...ackles-dominate

 

Not too happy with snagging the 4th rated OT with the #9 pick. Our o-line is a priority, but I'd be happier with the best LB in the draft, Rolando McLain, if available.

 

Do you believe he is the best at predicting the draft with mocks, or the best at evaluating the players?

 

I like a lot of what he had in his mock - like Beluga who I really like and hope we can draft. But at the same time Trent Williams is a 3rd-4th rounder IMO. Dont call me crazy either - last year Duke Robinson was in the 1st round by some peoples grades (including kiper/mcshay) and wasnt drafted til the fifth. T. WIlliams is very bad IMO.

[Estro]

So take an OLB when our DL sucks? thanks for posting Tom Donahoe

 

 

So, you must've been jumping for joy when the Bills selected Aaron Maybin over Brian Cushing right? There's your defensive lineman over an OLB, look how that one turned out. In general I'm not a fan of drafting for one particular position because your weak in that position. You have to take the best talent, reaching for a particular position is exactly what has gotten the Bills in trouble in recent history.

[Thurman#1]

Gosselin and Nawrocki are the gold standard. Gosselin though releases his top 100 like the day before the draft and its widely believed that NFL scouts leak him a lot of draft board info. I'm not sure he really scouts them or just reports what he hears from the people actually in the know.

 

 

He flat out admits he's not a scout, he just listens to what his contact say.

 

Which is much the same as Nawrocki, really. Why do you think he waits till three or four hours before the draft? It's not so he can catch a few more hours of tape. Nawrocki is a bit of a scout, but the reason his drafts are so good is that, like Gosselin, he has great contacts.

 

But hey, you don't think Mayock figured out through scouting that the Bills were going with Whitner, do you? He just had a contact inside the Bills.

[nostyle126]

Who'da known trading away a pro-bowl left tackle for chicken scratch would make such a mess. I mean, didn't we all think it was wise to get rid of a solid left tackle and trust the LT spot to a 2nd year 7th round pick with virtually no experience? It was a fool proof idea. Crazy that it hasn't worked...none of us could've known.

 

[Estro]

Nawrocki is very good. Gosselin is the best in the business, and it's not even particularly close.

 

Here are the rankings, based on their success in picking over the last three years:

 

http://www.thehuddlereport.com/Free/mockdraftscoring.shtml

 

 

Mayock isn't listed this year, I believe because he realized that actually predicting put him at risk of being wrong, and didn't make any official mock last year.

 

The year before, though, he was eligible with three official mocks for the three previous years, and he was ranked high, only three or four places below Kiper, but well in the top 15, which is pretty impressive but not godlike as the Mayock worshippers here on these boards would have it.

 

This scoring system is a total joke, and they don't even have Nolan Nawrocki included in this study. The true way to score a mock draft is to do the following:

 

If you have someone going 15th overall and he actually goes 25th than you would receive a 10 (because you were 10 spots off). If you have someone going 15th overall and they go 5th the same rule applies, you would receive a 10 (because once again you were 10 spots off). If you happen to have a player picked in the exact spot he ends up being taken you receive a 0 (best you can do). You do this point system for every single pick in the 1st round and whoever has the lowest score is best, like golf.

 

In the point system used in the analysis you provided it's simply a point if your guy goes in the round you picked him to go. That means if I have somebody going 32nd overall (the last pick in the 1st round), and the player actually gets picked with the 33rd pick (1st pick of the 2nd round) I'm rewarded with absolutely nothing, even though I accurately picked where he was going to go within one spot. However, if you have a player going 64th overall and he's picked 33rd overall you receive a point. How does this scoring system make any sense?

 

Essentially any website can claim that so and so has the best mock drafts as long as they create some dumb point system that backs it up. I've followed Gosselin's mock drafts as well, he too is good, but no where near Nawrocki. Just go have a look for yourself. Compare Nawrocki's 2009 final mock draft to Gosselin's 2009 final mock draft and it's not close. I'm not saying he did bad, Gosselin's final mock was very impressive, but once again it wasn't nearly as good as Nawrocki's.

 

Here is Gosselin's (8/32 players going to the correct team):

 

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dw...ft.3ed83e9.html

 

Nolan Nawrocki (15/32 players going to the correct team):

 

Unfortunately, Nawrocki takes the link down for his final mock draft over the summer, but here is the article to prove it-

 

http://www.profootballweekly.com/2009/04/3...hes-set-new-sta

 

15/32 is better than 8/32 right? He was also better in 2008 and 2007 compared apples to apples to Gosselin, that's as far back as I went.

[Packerland Bills Fan]

The most interesting pick in his draft was Bulaga at #5. I haven't seen him that high anywhere else. That really doesn't make everyone else right, it's just a different opinion. I think Anthony Davis is more of a risk than Clausen. We'll see.

[drewfla]

Seriously, are you his publicist? You have to be getting some kind of compensation to go this crazy over it. Man get over it. Who cares? There are a million prognosticators out there.

[Estro]

Seriously, are you his publicist? You have to be getting some kind of compensation to go this crazy over it. Man get over it. Who cares? There are a million prognosticators out there.

 

Yeah, $10 everytime I tell the truth.........He's the best!

 

Can't say anyone is the best at anything on this board without everyone getting all defensive, even when they're clearly the BEST!

 

As to who cares......thousand and thousands of Bills and NFL fans in general who want to keep tabs on the website that's had the best final mock draft for 4 years and counting throughout this long offseason.

[BillsVet]

That mock was basically throwing a bunch of crap against the wall and seeing what stuck.

 

Not sure what he based any of those picks on. It's like he didn't watch a single college game.

 

It's not even February and you're dinging one of the best mock drafters for supposedly throwing stuff at a wall? No mock draft in January looks like what actually happens because the combine and individual workouts influence board movement.

 

Just once I'd like to see someone actually put forth an alternative or back up an opinion before ripping another person, TBD'er or otherwise. But that'd be too much for TBD.

[Acantha]

It's not even February and you're dinging one of the best mock drafters for supposedly throwing stuff at a wall? No mock draft in January looks like what actually happens because the combine and individual workouts influence board movement.

 

Just once I'd like to see someone actually put forth an alternative or back up an opinion before ripping another person, TBD'er or otherwise. But that'd be too much for TBD.

You must be the pot I hear so much about.

 

If it's too early to do a mock, then why do it? And if you're going to do one before the combine and workouts, and before your sources have any info for you, then what are you basing your mock off of? Has to be college performance, right? If he is basing this off college game performance, there is no way in hell that Suh isn't the first DT taken. His explanation didn't even make sense. Suh didn't have some late season rise that came out of nowhere. He was the highest rated DT before the season and was phenomenal all season long. The only explanation for the order in his draft is that he's trying to get people talking about his mock, period. It's a gimmick, nothing more.

[lets_go_bills]

Anyone who knows ProFootballWeekly.com or Nolan Nawrocki knows he's the best in the business. Second to nobody and that includes Mike Mayock, a distant second. Tonight he has released his first mock draft:

 

http://www.profootballweekly.com/2010/01/3...ackles-dominate

 

Not too happy with snagging the 4th rated OT with the #9 pick. Our o-line is a priority, but I'd be happier with the best LB in the draft, Rolando McLain, if available.

 

Two things:

 

1. Mayock is the #1 draft guru.

2. This mock is rather awful.

[Estro]

Two things:

 

1. Mayock is the #1 draft guru.

2. This mock is rather awful.

 

 

Do you guys not know how to click links or are you just thick headed? You can say you think anyone you think is the best. It just so happens the guy I said was the best, is in fact the best, and I backed it up with his draft from last year, the one before that, and the one before that.

 

Mayock is also very good and I respect his evaluations on players. I remeber he absolutely hated James Hardy and thought the guy would crap out in the league. So far he's dead on in that assesment.

 

I still think it's funny that the majority of responders to this thread think picking 15/32 players to the correct team in last years draft is not noteworthy and that "joe schmo" picks better than that. I will be offering a $100 cash prize to anyone who matches or beats 15/32 in the 2010 draft (no copying other mocks, obviously). When the time comes nearer I'll make it official, this way everyone can see how difficult it is to peg players to the right team especially once you get out of the top 10 picks.