What a Cowher or Billick move would actually be

[GrudginglyPessimistic]

Really doubtful to win the SB, but a much better chance of making the playoffs.

 

The main argument that folks seem to make about why you would go hard for Cowher (or a second choice to many Cowher fans go for Billick) is that real world experience has clearly shown these men are capable of leading a team to the SB.

 

Granted and lets take that as a given.

 

However, if one is going to devote so much faith and belief to past reality, then also please take into account that NO (zero, nada, zippo, none) HC has won the SB with two different teams. Getting Cowher (if he wants to come here) or Billick pretty much guarantees for those who put a lot of stock in past performance ) that the outcome of getting Cowher is probably not a winning strategy if your goal is to win the SB.

 

This being said, you gotta walk before you run (or in our case under Mr. Ralph's ownership you gotta crawl before you walk) so getting an HC with a better chance of getting your team to the playoffs is a necessary step.

 

I only say that for those who are big believers in following past successful methods it really comes down to Nix making a good choice of a new HC who can lead this team to glory.

 

The odds simply are that if he gets Cowher (who until a KOK post in another thread I was not reminded how much of a failure Cowher had been in winning the AFC championship game until he finally won one after a whole bunch of tries) we are not likely at all to win the SB.

 

Still, I guess I have been beaten down by a decade of Mr. Ralph led failure that I would be overjoyed to get a mere playoff appearance rather than shoot for the ultimate, so I am quite happy to settle for Cowher or even Billick raher than take the higher risk (though better chance if Nix makes a good choice) prospect of getting an up and coming co-ordinator.

[Fewell733]

i said this in the Frazier freak out zone already but I'll repeat it again:

 

only 3 of the 12 playoff teams this year are coached by 2nd time around head coaches - and 2 of them are perennial playoff bust coaches Wade and Norv. the third is Bellichick who has a HOF QB, and he was a bust the first time round.

 

so 9 of 12 playoff teams are headed by first hire head coaches. Yet you need prior Head Coaching experience to succeed in the NFL?

[Mr_Blizzard]

i said this in the Frazier freak out zone already but I'll repeat it again:

 

only 3 of the 12 playoff teams this year are coached by 2nd time around head coaches - and 2 of them are perennial playoff bust coaches Wade and Norv. the third is Bellichick who has a HOF QB, and he was a bust the first time round.

 

so 9 of 12 playoff teams are headed by first hire head coaches. Yet you need prior Head Coaching experience to succeed in the NFL?

 

I think it's wise to get someone who has been a head coach at some level; (not necessarily an NFL coach).

[Ghost of Rob Johnson]

It would appease the fans, but that is all. Cowher and Billick have both won Super Bowls, but both have also been on the hot seat at times. They're certainly not guaranteed to be any better than any of the coordinator candidates available.

[silvermike]

I think it's wise to get someone who has been a head coach at some level; (not necessarily an NFL coach).

 

Frazier did coach a college team for a while, at Trinity in the NAIA, winning two conference titles according to Wikipedia.

[apuszczalowski]

It would appease the fans, but that is all. Cowher and Billick have both won Super Bowls, but both have also been on the hot seat at times. They're certainly not guaranteed to be any better than any of the coordinator candidates available.

Thats it, it would make them feel all "warm and fuzzy" knowing they have a coach who has won before and they will believe that the coach can do it all over again

 

All the best coaches had to start somewhere

[BillnutinHouston]

Generally I agree with the original post.

 

Those who like to trumpet the statistic about SB winning coaches not winning a second one as a reason not to select a proven commodity, are kind of annoying. I think you CAN and SHOULD extrapolate past performance into the future, like you can with most employees. Past performance of the exact same role in the past (taking into account the variables around him, of course) is the best predictor of future success in that role. The reason that no coach in the modern era has won SBs with 2 different teams has much more to do with the statistical improbability of winning it twice, than it does some made up theory that says once a HC has won a SB, he is incapable of winning another.

 

If Ralph is serious about making this team a winner and making it relevant, he MUST hire either Cowher or Billick. This franchise is in dire need of credibility and a HC with a SB ring is the best credibility you can get.

[GrudginglyPessimistic]

Generally I agree with the original post.

 

Those who like to trumpet the statistic about SB winning coaches not winning a second one as a reason not to select a proven commodity, are kind of annoying. I think you CAN and SHOULD extrapolate past performance into the future, like you can with most employees. Past performance of the exact same role in the past (taking into account the variables around him, of course) is the best predictor of future success in that role. The reason that no coach in the modern era has won SBs with 2 different teams has much more to do with the statistical improbability of winning it twice, than it does some made up theory that says once a HC has won a SB, he is incapable of winning another.

 

If Ralph is serious about making this team a winner and making it relevant, he MUST hire either Cowher or Billick. This franchise is in dire need of credibility and a HC with a SB ring is the best credibility you can get.

From my perspective the main reason you hire a particular HC is because the decision-maker (Mr. Ralph in this case) and the lead implementer (Buddy Nix in this case) decide that is HC is a key part of the TEAM that can deliver and SB win. The key here is the recognition that it is a TEAM thing and not even a team thing that gets one to the promised land (an SB win).

 

I think one of the major mistakes the Bills have made is the continuing operation of looking for yet another savior who is going to virtually single-handedly going to get us there. That simply is not how it happens or is going to happen in the real world.

 

I have a lot of respect for Bill Polian not because he was some kind of savior to do things on his own, but he has operated in a manner that realizes how tough it is to build a winning TEAM and has consistently collected a bunch of seemingly disparate pieces (the bickering Bills for example, Marv/Marchibroda disputes) and somehow brought them together to create a winner. Even in Indy with the best QB ever, a great kicker, a super WR, a pretty good D led by Freeney and Saunders, and the depth he always used to get good ST guys, Polian realized this was not enough and got Dungy with his defensive chops and leadership ability to finally bring an ST win to Indy.

 

The key here is for Nix to prove to be enough of a football guy to be able to hold Mr. Ralph at bay when the owner exercises his right to meddle (which I think led directly to many of the debacles since the good old days in the mid 90s and a good enough football guy to assemble a team.

 

Maybe Cowher is a part of that. Maybe Frazier is a part of that.

 

We will see.

[spartacus]

I think it's wise to get someone who has been a head coach at some level; (not necessarily an NFL coach).

 

Kirk Ferentz or Jim Harbaugh fit the bill

[spartacus]

From my perspective the main reason you hire a particular HC is because the decision-maker (Mr. Ralph in this case) and the lead implementer (Buddy Nix in this case) decide that is HC is a key part of the TEAM that can deliver and SB win. The key here is the recognition that it is a TEAM thing and not even a team thing that gets one to the promised land (an SB win).

 

I think one of the major mistakes the Bills have made is the continuing operation of looking for yet another savior who is going to virtually single-handedly going to get us there. That simply is not how it happens or is going to happen in the real world.

 

I have a lot of respect for Bill Polian not because he was some kind of savior to do things on his own, but he has operated in a manner that realizes how tough it is to build a winning TEAM and has consistently collected a bunch of seemingly disparate pieces (the bickering Bills for example, Marv/Marchibroda disputes) and somehow brought them together to create a winner. Even in Indy with the best QB ever, a great kicker, a super WR, a pretty good D led by Freeney and Saunders, and the depth he always used to get good ST guys, Polian realized this was not enough and got Dungy with his defensive chops and leadership ability to finally bring an ST win to Indy.

 

The key here is for Nix to prove to be enough of a football guy to be able to hold Mr. Ralph at bay when the owner exercises his right to meddle (which I think led directly to many of the debacles since the good old days in the mid 90s and a good enough football guy to assemble a team.

 

Maybe Cowher is a part of that. Maybe Frazier is a part of that.

 

We will see.

 

your analysis is right on

 

Unfortunately the bills have butchered step one in the process of hiring the best football man for GM

 

Step 2 does not seem to be going much better

[boyst]

so 9 of 12 playoff teams are headed by first hire head coaches. Yet you need prior Head Coaching experience to succeed in the NFL?

I put more faith in a head coach with experience that can right the ship, so to speak. I am not looking for us to reach the Super Bowl in the next 2 or 3 years; more a playoff game and the steps to restructurin our entire archaic franchise. Our curenty situation is not due to lack of talent on the roster it is due to lack of talent on the sidelines and in the office for the last 12 years.