todzilla Posted December 23, 2009 Posted December 23, 2009 was anyone else really pissed off that the bills passed on orakpo for maybin? i was, and now, orakpo is gonna make the pro bowl and maybins gonna keep the bench warm. hopefully the bills wont make a mistake like that this year ie. take either colt over bradford or suh over mccoy Gee I don't think anyone has mention Orakpo as an alternative to Maybin. And I don't think Orakpo is making the pro bowl, and Suh is the best player available in the draft. Welcome to the board!
Thurman#1 Posted December 23, 2009 Posted December 23, 2009 The first round is not a complete crapshoot - the success rate for first rounders is certainly higher than it is for later round picks. What I'd call a crapshoot (and crapshoots are very low odds, by the way) is hoping you can find a diamond in the rough at QB in the later rounds. Crapshoots don't have very low odds. They are risky and uncertain, but the shooter in a craps game doesn't have a 5% chance of winning. It's somewhere above 40%. Even the first round is a crapshoot, but the odds are much better in the first than they are anyplace else.
Thurman#1 Posted December 23, 2009 Posted December 23, 2009 Pick up your LT in the second round. Look at the success of Vollmer and Loadholt (and to a lesser extent, Beatty and Britton) this year. If Wood and Butler are healthy, then get veteran backups and a 4th-5th rounder, and that is your line. Phil Loadholt is #55 out of 75 tackles who have played in the NFL this year. Not good, though he is still very young and might turn into something. Vollmer, on the other hand, has been terrific, #4 out of 75. But it's a lot easier to play well when you step into a line which is stable and has played together for a long time, like the Pats* line. I bet Vollmer would be playing much less well if we had taken him. http://profootballfocus.com/by_position.ph...&numgames=1 Second-round left tackles have a much poorer record than first-rounders.
Thurman#1 Posted December 23, 2009 Posted December 23, 2009 +5,000 Just take a look at the best offensive lines in the league: Tennessee, New Orleans, Indianapolis, none have a single first-round pick playing for them right now... Tennessee's combination: Roos (2nd) - Amato (5th) - Mawae (5th) - Scott (5th) - Stewart (3rd) Indianapolis' combination: Johnson (6th) - Pollack (2nd) - Saturday (5th) - Devan (6th) - Diem (4th) New Orleans' combination: Bushrod (4th) - Nicks (4th) - Goodwin (5th) - Evans (3rd) - Stinchcomb (3rd) Get the right judge of talent in the front office and a whole world of solid offensive linemen opens up to you from rounds 2 through 7. Tennessee: Amato 7th year, Roos 5th year, Mawae 16th year, Scott 5th year, Stewart the youngster in his 4th year Indy: Johnson 3rd year, DeVan 2nd year (Skins camp and Jets practice squad last year) (has started last 6 weeks), Diem 9th year, Lilja 6th year, Saturday 11th year. New Orleans: Bushrod 3rd year (first as a starter), Nicks 2nd year (started 13 games as a rookie), Goodwin 8th year (didn't start regularly till this year, though he has played in spots), Evans (4th year, starter since his first year), Stinchcomb 8th year (didn't start regularly till his 4th year). By the way, N.O. has a website which makes it easy to figure out how much each guy played each year, so I added the extra info. The point is that these teams have lines with a great deal of experience. Buffalo will not have that luxury, not even close. Also, Indy had Tarik Glenn during the Super Bowl year, a first-round LT. The Steelers had 2 or 3 first-rounders on the OL when they won the SB in 2005. Now they have none, and it shows. The pounding that Roethlisberger has taken for the past two years is having an effect. Finally, two major points. 1) How many of those guys stepped right into the starting lineup? When you take lower-round guys, you often have to wait a few years for them to learn and develop. We simply don't have that luxury at LT this year. 2) Less talented guys have a huge advantage when they step into stable lines filled with guys who can help, guys who know not only their own assignments but the guys to both sides as well. Everything is much easier, and less-talented guys look a great deal better under those circumstances. Clearly, that's not going to be the situation next year in Buffalo.
Thurman#1 Posted December 23, 2009 Posted December 23, 2009 Pro Day 40 numbers are always inflated. Don't put any stock into them at all. The combine numbers, in which he ran a 4.49, are always a more accurate indicator. I could probably strap on the PF Flyers and record a 4.5 40 on the stopwatches at a Pro Day right now. No you couldn't.
shoveldog Posted December 23, 2009 Posted December 23, 2009 For the love of God, the kid is 21. Name me one person that got drafted at the age of 21 and became a stud his first year. The bashing of this kid and calling him a bust already is just insane. Give the kid an offseason and training camp at least. Some on this board may be too young to remember, but even our hall of fame DE Bruce Smith wasn't exactly a world burner in his first year... and, he was 22. 1985 - Games 16 - Started 13 - Sacks 6.5 - Tackles 48 - Fumble Recoveries 4 Give Maybin a chance to figure it out. It's way too early to tell anything about the Pro he may become.
zazie Posted December 23, 2009 Posted December 23, 2009 Gee I don't think anyone has mention Orakpo as an alternative to Maybin. And I don't think Orakpo is making the pro bowl, and Suh is the best player available in the draft. Welcome to the board! Uh, double digit sacks? Orakpo will be in Hawaii as an alternate if nothing else. Byrd will be there too with another INT or 2.
zazie Posted December 23, 2009 Posted December 23, 2009 Suh should be the Bills #1 pick. He'll be long gone.
Thurman#1 Posted December 23, 2009 Posted December 23, 2009 Suh should be the Bills #1 pick. Yeah, the minute they can get the NFL to look the other way and change their record to 0 - 16, they can pick Suh. For Pete's sake, he won't be there for us.
Chalkie Gerzowski Posted December 23, 2009 Posted December 23, 2009 thats why talent evaluating is so tough...... first of all, Patrick Willis ran a 4.37......McClain runs a 4.60.......while McClain might become a great pro, he is no Patrick Willis. of the four players you mention, i believe Gerald McCoy has the least amount of risk. i think that Bradford has the most risk with that glass shoulder of his, absent that injury he goes 1st overall (even ahead of Suh). The OT Williams does not look like an elite LT, he played RT most of his career and just moved over with mixed results. i love Bradfords accuracy, but his shoulder is just to big of a red flag. if i'm picking, i would go McCoy. SCOUTS INC.'S TOP 32Player Pos. School Grade 1. Eric Berry* S Tennessee 97 2. Ndamukong Suh DT Nebraska 97 3. Gerald McCoy* DT Oklahoma 96 4. Joe Haden* CB Florida 96 5. Derrick Morgan* DE Georgia Tech 96 6. Russell Okung OT Okla. State 96 7. Rolando McClain* ILB Alabama 96 8. Trent Williams OT Oklahoma 95 9. Jake Locker* QB Washington 95 10. C.J. Spiller RB Clemson 95 11. Sam Bradford* QB Oklahoma 94 http://www.draftcountdown.com/sub/Mock-Draft-A.php http://walterfootball.com/draft2010.php http://www.nfldraftdog.com/Mock-Drafts/201...mock-draft.html The clown at the last link has them taking a CB. Maurvron run that site? The second link has them taking Sam Needs Calcium Bradford. The first one has them taking a WR. Dizzy White or something.
Fewell733 Posted December 23, 2009 Posted December 23, 2009 The NFL scrap heap is littered with "can't miss" QB high draft picks. Ryan Leaf will always be the poster boy for this phenomenon, but all you have to do is go through the 1st round QB picks over the last 15 years and it's like a who's who of "can't miss" busts. For every 1st round success like Kelly, Elway, Marino, etc., there are 5 1st round busts who never lived up their exhalted status. There's no guarantee for other positions (can you say Mike Williams?), but the glamour of the QB position too often puts stars in the eyes of the fans who've seen them tear up some Div I stiffs. I could be wrong, or course, but I don't see Colt McCoy as ever being a force in the NFL. Here's a list of some of the "can't miss" first round busts: David Carr, Akili Smith, Rick Mirer, Heath Shuler, Andre Ware, Joey Harrington, Byron Leftwich, Alex Smith, Matt Leinart. Some of these were "ok" QBs. but none warranted their lofty draft position or the paycheck that accompanied it. Some that weren't necessarily "can't miss" players, but still 1st round busts include: Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman and our very own J.P Losman. Oh yeah.....the Bills need to continue building from the inside and bolster their O and D lines. The skill positions will function at an amazingly high level if given the support from the beef ont he trenches. That's how superbowl teams are built. there are no can't miss prospects, including at tackle or along the lines. The league is now designed to the advantage of teams with great quarterbacks and they're basically only available through the draft. eventually we have to try and get one and you're only in position to take one every so often. Chances are we won't be anyway and can take a tackle.
Lt. Dan's Revenge Posted December 23, 2009 Posted December 23, 2009 No you couldn't. Little do you know that I spent the entire spring training with Andre Smith. Ever see Hard Knocks? Yeah. I'm that other guy.
Beebe's Kid Posted December 23, 2009 Posted December 23, 2009 Uh, double digit sacks? Orakpo will be in Hawaii as an alternate if nothing else. Byrd will be there too with another INT or 2. I he's in Hawaii, he will be on vacation. The Pro Bowl is in Miami this year. Although I have been frustrated by Maybin, I will wait another year. I don't agree with the idea of a team that had so many immediate needs to draft a project, but all's well that ends well....let's hope the Aaron Maybin project works out. I am glad that we will see a little Brohm. It will be behind a JV line, but I want to see him throw... I want to see 4 Qtrs of trying to find receivers, I want to see some freaking hope!! I am realistic that this is not the optimal audition for the lad, but I don't really give a s#$t. We need a QB, and we need one fast. I can appreciate the "If you build it, they will come" attitude about the OL, but as has been mentioned experience is a major if not the defining quality of good OLmen. So I would really like to see LT addressed through free agency. I think Incognito could work out, and Levitre is solid. I would like to see Wood come back and play C. that would leave us with the RT, which Butler looked very good at until week 2. If Butler stays on the field I take the mix of who we have with a FA LT. McClain would be awesome, and I would love to not have to have a QB in that spot. Jason Campbell is different guy, same results, and FA class is thin to say the least. I wouldn't mind Vick, and I would consider Tavaris Jackson. I would really not gamble on an aging FA, that hasn't panned out...Bradford has the ability to be solid, and his injury doesn't concern me much, especially if given an Doc's okay. It really depends on Brohm's quick audition here, which is sad behind this line, and the small sample size, but if he shows flashes of brilliance, I say we go DT, DE, or LB in rd 1.
Fewell733 Posted December 23, 2009 Posted December 23, 2009 I doubt Orakpo would have nearly as many sacks if he was playing DE instead of pass rushing OLB. Though he's still clearly way ahead of Maybin. No argument there. Doesn't Loadholt play right tackle?
Tortured Soul Posted December 23, 2009 Posted December 23, 2009 Phil Loadholt is #55 out of 75 tackles who have played in the NFL this year. Not good, though he is still very young and might turn into something. Vollmer, on the other hand, has been terrific, #4 out of 75. But it's a lot easier to play well when you step into a line which is stable and has played together for a long time, like the Pats* line. I bet Vollmer would be playing much less well if we had taken him. http://profootballfocus.com/by_position.ph...&numgames=1 Second-round left tackles have a much poorer record than first-rounders. Good stuff. I'm going to have to look at that site more. Loadholt still grades out well in pass blocking. Here are some rankings breakdowns for you: 1st Round OTs: 14 (Oher), 33 (J Smith), 56 (Monroe) 2nd Round OTs: 4 (Vollmer), 49 (Britton), 55 (Loadhot) Bills OTs: 41 (Chambers), 58 (Scott), 74 (Bell)
Wizard Posted December 23, 2009 Posted December 23, 2009 I'll third that. Yep, McClain is the only guy that seems to have NFL-ready all over him. McCoy's weight is an issue, Bradford's size and injury is a concern, and Trent Williams is a talent but not worth a top 12 pick.
papazoid Posted December 23, 2009 Posted December 23, 2009 the tie breaking procedure for draft order uses "strength of schedule"......when the season ends the bills strength of schedule will be one of the highest....meaning they will probably pick last amongst any teams that have the same win loss record. if the season ended today.....they pick 9th.
May Day 10 Posted December 23, 2009 Posted December 23, 2009 the tie breaking procedure for draft order uses "strength of schedule"......when the season ends the bills strength of schedule will be one of the highest....meaning they will probably pick last amongst any teams that have the same win loss record. if the season ended today.....they pick 9th. it sux we have New Orleans and Indy.. plus nobody else in the Division with a bad record (and the other AFC Division we are playing dont have bad records).
Buckeye Eric Posted December 23, 2009 Posted December 23, 2009 Absolutely NO QBs in the first round. They will be on the bench with a concussion by week 6 and this board will be lit up slamming the team didn't select an OL or DL in the 1st. 1st round QBs are high risk, and this team can not afford high risk...
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