Got_Wood Posted December 9, 2009 Posted December 9, 2009 Guys you named with zero chance of NFL success:LeFevour Robinson Guys you named with many obstacles to overcome to achieve NFL success: Snead McCoy Tebow Pike Others who may not declare: Locker Mallet QBs gone by the time Bufalo Picks Clausen Locker (maybe depending on how season pans out) Not so good anymore eh? All assumptions. I could also say this: Russell Okung = Mike Williams Rolando McClain = Vernon Gholston Gerald McCoy = Glenn Dorsey Anyone can end up being a bust. But when you've got a top 10 pick, you take a shot at a potential star. You have the opportunity to snag one of the top 10 players in the entire nation coming out of college. I see quite a few QB's with that possibility. Forget raw measurables. Because based on that, Jimmy Clausen is supposedly the best QB candidate. Forget his bad attitude, happy feet in the pocket, marginal leadership ability, and questionable decision making. Mel Kiper has rated him #1. If I look at skill combined with work ethic, attitude, leadership ability, pedigree, and straight up ability to win... you have to look at guys like McCoy, Tebow, Bradford, Pike, Locker, Mallett, and Lefevour. Supposedly Phil Rivers had terrible throwing mechanics, and Ben Roethlisberger had marginal mobility and couldn't escape the rush, and Tom Brady was unathletic, etc etc etc. You've got to put all the pieces together to make your final decision on whether or not to take a player in the draft. I hope we assemble a new front office with leaders that carefully make these decisions.
bills2683 Posted December 9, 2009 Posted December 9, 2009 McClain and Gholston are completely different players...Gholston was an OLB in college and was drafted as a pass rusher off the edge for the jets 3-4. McClain plays inside and is a true mlb with playmaking ability both in the passing game and run game. He should be the pick.
Sisyphean Bills Posted December 9, 2009 Posted December 9, 2009 Gholston was a overhyped, one-trick, pass rushing tweener from a high profile Big-10 program. A lot like another player who will remain not-so anonymous.
Thurman#1 Posted December 9, 2009 Posted December 9, 2009 I hate any and all talk about QB's being a "sure thing" coming out of college. How many teams passed on Joe Montana? What round was he drafted in? What about Tom Brady? How many QB's were drafted in the Elway, Kelly, Marino '83 class? How many made a difference for their clubs? How many ever made a Pro-Bowl? Rick Mirer? Todd Marinovich? Akili Smith? Jeff George? For every Eli Manning, there are 4 Ryan Leaf's. Or Kyle Bollers. Or Alex Smith. Or JP Losman. You can blame it on coaching, the much different speed of the game from college, a bad offensive line, whatever. I agree with most that the QB position is the hardest position to play in professional sports. But as anyone who knows anything about scouting football players will tell you, its a crap shoot. You're right. We should just give up and stay with Fitz and Trent for the next five or ten years. I know that's not what you're saying, but it's where your thought leads. There are very very few sure thing QBs, if any. But you improve your odds greatly by drafting one high.
BillsVet Posted December 9, 2009 Posted December 9, 2009 I laugh every time someone claims this is not a good year for drafting a QB. This is THE YEAR to draft a QB. There hasn't been this much QB talent in a draft in a long time. The draft is simply just over analyzed. There are 2 Heisman Trophy winners in Bradford and Tebow (potentially 3 if McCoy wins this year). And Clausen, Locker, Snead, Pike, LeFevour, and Robinson ALL have starting potential. And Mallett may declare as well. That's TEN QB's Buffalo has a shot at. What's the dilemma here? ****, I'd take 2 of them just to increase the potential of us landing a starter. Troy Smith, Jason White, Eric Crouch, Andre Ware, Danny Wuerffel, Gino Torretta, Charlie Ward, Chris Weinke, and Ty Detmer won the Heisman as well. It doesn't predict someone will have NFL success. A +1 Agree completely. Plus probably 3 of the 4 best QB's playing right now (Brees, Favre, Brady) were all first round... Oh my bad that was JP Losman. Point is ya never know. Ah, exception guy. For every Tom Brady type player, there are at least 200 late round picks that never amount to anything. And while Favre and Brees are 2nd round picks, they were taken just outside the first and the vast majority of good to excellent starting QB's in the NFL are first round selections.
BuffaloRebound Posted December 9, 2009 Posted December 9, 2009 If we are drafting in the top 5-6 picks, it better be a QB, OT, or Defensive Lineman/LB who can get after the QB. We have nothing at those positions, and they are the most important.
RTW2012 Posted December 9, 2009 Posted December 9, 2009 And aside from make the2nd Freshman All-America team in 2006, he is NOT an AA. CBSSports.com and the AFCA say differently... http://www.afca.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OE...TCLID=204843538 http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/s...allamerica-team
bills_red Posted December 9, 2009 Posted December 9, 2009 http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft10/ins...tory?id=4662630 In reviewing Oklahoma Sooners offensive tackle Trent Williams, I can't help but think of Gosder Cherilus. Cherilus is the progenitor of this series; after seeing his subpar collegiate metrics accurately translate into subpar professional metrics, I decided to start reviewing more NFL draft prospects this way. Williams is much like Cherilus in that his collegiate metrics leave a lot to be desired. His first and most important metric weakness is pass blocking. Left tackles get monster contracts and highly publicized motion pictures ("The Blind Side," about Michael Oher, opens Friday) because of their ability to keep pass-rushers from impacting the game via splash plays (e.g., sacks, offensive holding penalties, tipped passes, etc.). A review I did in Scientific Football 2009 shows the best professional pass-blockers allow four or fewer splash plays in a season. It tiers down from there, with four to six being above average, six to 10 being below average and more than 10 ranking at or near the bottom of the league. Getty Images Trent Williams might not be signaling for a lot of first downs on Sundays. The central premise of the Draft Lab series is that the top-level pro prospects should be able to post metrics against collegiate competition that are above average or better than high-end NFL players at the same position. In the five-game series I broke down on Williams (at Miami, versus Texas, at Kansas, versus Kansas State, at Nebraska), he gave up four splash plays. There were two sack plays and one offensive holding play, so three of the four splash plays were direct impacts and not simply judgement calls. As bad as four splash plays in five games is, Williams was lucky that total wasn't higher. He was beaten quite badly on an inside spin move in the Nebraska game that was very nearly a hurry or sack, but a quick reaction by OU quarterback Landry Jones saved Williams from splash play No. 5. That wasn't the only time Williams struggled with an inside pass-rush move. He was pushed completely off his feet with an inside shoulder club move in both the Kansas State and Nebraska games. Miami also ran 10 inside moves against Williams, which is such a high total that one has to figure the Hurricanes saw a similar inside pass-blocking weakness. Those woes would be enough on their own to consider Williams overhyped, but his run blocking is actually worse than his pass blocking. Williams blocked at the point of attack on a running play 41 times and won the battle 33 times. That equates to an 80.5 percent POA win rate. To put that in perspective, an 80.5 percent POA rate in 2008 would have ranked 28th among NFL left tackles. Williams' POA win rates are worse than that if the 10 plays on which he had double-team blocking help are removed. He had zero POA losses on those plays, so his POA win rate on one-on-one blocks was 74.2 percent. Williams also has issues with penalties. There was the aforementioned offensive holding penalty, two false starts, a personal foul/leg whip penalty and a personal foul/late hit. The late hit might show an additional weakness. It came not long after Nebraska defensive lineman Barry Turner beat Williams on a POA run block. Williams beat Turner on a run block a few plays later and wouldn't stop blocking him until well after the play was over. His extra pushing eventually led to the penalty, and it looked to my scouting eye like he was mad about having been beaten and was trying to send a message to Turner. That could be a strength in that if a coach can find a way to tap into it, it might be used to his team's advantage. The problem is, though, NFL defenders know when someone reacts poorly to having his buttons pushed, and if they sense that weakness in Williams, he'll have someone trying to goad him in every game he plays. The Football Scientist lab result: Had I not known before watching video of Williams that he was considered a first-round prospect in many circles, it wouldn't have occurred to me to even consider ranking him that high. He might go in the first round because he is a left tackle, but the metrics say he will be a mediocre pro player, and that stamps him with the TFS overhyped label.
Orton's Arm Posted December 9, 2009 Posted December 9, 2009 The Football Scientist lab result: Had I not known before watching video of Williams that he was considered a first-round prospect in many circles, it wouldn't have occurred to me to even consider ranking him that high. He might go in the first round because he is a left tackle, but the metrics say he will be a mediocre pro player, and that stamps him with the TFS overhyped label. That's one of the most convincing, analytic, and best posts I can recall having seen on these boards! You've convinced me that the Bills should not use a top 5 draft pick on an overhyped offensive tackle with a last name of Williams! (Or a first name of Trent, for that matter.) Please let us know how whichever players we do pick stack up with respect to the metrics you and the associated website have identified.
Thurman#1 Posted December 9, 2009 Posted December 9, 2009 +1 Agree completely. Plus probably 3 of the 4 best QB's playing right now (Brees, Favre, Brady) were all first round... Oh my bad that was JP Losman. Point is ya never know. True. You never know. So you do your best to improve the odds. How do you do that? By drafting a QB early. That's where the odds of success are highest. Far from perfect odds even if you draft #1. But much higher than anywhere else you can get a QB.
Thurman#1 Posted December 9, 2009 Posted December 9, 2009 Guys you named with zero chance of NFL success:LeFevour Robinson Guys you named with many obstacles to overcome to achieve NFL success: Snead McCoy Tebow Pike Others who may not declare: Locker Mallet QBs gone by the time Bufalo Picks Clausen Locker (maybe depending on how season pans out) Not so good anymore eh? Two other guys who had zero percent chance of succeeding coming out of college: Tony Romo and Kurt Warner. Doesn't look quite so bad now, does it?
Thurman#1 Posted December 9, 2009 Posted December 9, 2009 Gholston was a overhyped, one-trick, pass rushing tweener from a high profile Big-10 program. A lot like another player who will remain not-so anonymous. That's what he looks like now. At the time, he was considered a guy with a great chance of success. Hindsight is always 20:20, but Gholston was not an obvious soon-to-be-bust at the time.
BB2004 Posted December 9, 2009 Posted December 9, 2009 The Bills should draft offensive tackles with their two top picks. We'd all love a QB but there's no Matt Ryan available this year. I agree with the offensive tackle as our first pick, but if the quarterback that we really want is there for us, I think we draft him, whoever that maybe. There could be a handful of really good quarterbacks coming out of the upcoming draft.
Sisyphean Bills Posted December 9, 2009 Posted December 9, 2009 That's what he looks like now. At the time, he was considered a guy with a great chance of success. Hindsight is always 20:20, but Gholston was not an obvious soon-to-be-bust at the time. By some, yes. Not by me.
Red Posted December 9, 2009 Posted December 9, 2009 You're right. We should just give up and stay with Fitz and Trent for the next five or ten years. I know that's not what you're saying, but it's where your thought leads. There are very very few sure thing QBs, if any. But you improve your odds greatly by drafting one high. Baloney. Or even better, Mularkey!
Thurman#1 Posted December 10, 2009 Posted December 10, 2009 Baloney. Or even better, Mularkey! Hunh? Are you saying that you DON'T improve your odds of success by drafting a QB early? Because that's a statistical fact. You do improve the odds by drafting early.
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