dave mcbride Posted November 16, 2009 Share Posted November 16, 2009 The Bills are now ahead of the Titans in draft order. Other good developments yesterday: KC won, so if the Bills lose to KC, they should move ahead of the Chiefs in draft order too. The Rams are getting it together. They're probably the Bills' biggest competitor for whoever the best QB prospect is, and if they start winning, they could end up with an equal or better record than the Bills. Since they have a new coach, I expect them to play even harder as the season goes on. TB is getting better, and should have won yesterday. I'm not too concerned about them because they spent a first round pick on a QB last year. The Redskins won and now have the same record as the Bills. They'll be looking for a QB and LT next year. Not that I thought the Bills would ever end up with a better record than the Panthers, but they did beat Carolina and presumably hold a tiebreaker advantage over them. It was nice to see Carolina win. If I had to project draft order right now, the Bills could end up around #5 - behind Detroit, Cleveland, Tampa, and Oakland. If they end up with a better record than the Rams, it puts them at 6. If they beat the Chiefs, they're at 7/8. They really, really need to hope for the Rams to improve and they also need to lose to the Chiefs. The problem, of course, is that often, #4-#6 gets you a guy like Levi Brown, Curry (Seattle), or Mike Williams rather than the player they desperately need: a QB. The positive is while the team hasn't given up, they do look like they have no faith in themselves. Plus their depth looks terrible. That means a) that the coach will be indicted (no faith in themselves); b) the front office will be indicted (lousy personnel); and c) there will be a run for the bus in the final quarter of the season. I think there's a better-than-even chance now that the front office/coaching staff will be blown up. If they can somehow manage to get into the top 3 in draft order, they should be able to get a top-flight QB plus a solid LT/RT prospect at the beginning of round 2. My concern is that 4-12 (which is where I fear they'll end up) puts them at #5-#7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerball Posted November 16, 2009 Share Posted November 16, 2009 Not so fast my friend! Bills lost to SF last year and still picked behind them. Unfortunately head to head doesn't go into determining draft order. (of course we will end up with a worse record, i'm just sayin...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted November 16, 2009 Author Share Posted November 16, 2009 Not so fast my friend! Bills lost to SF last year and still picked behind them. Unfortunately head to head doesn't go into determining draft order. (of course we will end up with a worse record, i'm just sayin...) Yeah, I forgot about that. Well, it's still better for them to lose against KC than win. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluenews Posted November 16, 2009 Share Posted November 16, 2009 Yeah, I forgot about that. Well, it's still better for them to lose against KC than win. Just sayin'. strength of schedule is used for tie breakers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phlegm Alley Posted November 16, 2009 Share Posted November 16, 2009 What do you mean "draft a QB"? The Bills are going to trade for Michael Vick. Problem solved. /sarcasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrFishfinder Posted November 16, 2009 Share Posted November 16, 2009 Oh yay. Another 1st round gem like Maybin for next year. Maybe another Erik Flowers? Mike Williams? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted November 16, 2009 Author Share Posted November 16, 2009 Oh yay. Another 1st round gem like Maybin for next year. Maybe another Erik Flowers? Mike Williams? If you read my post, I'm advocating that the Bills draft a QB. The draft really is the only place to find them, you know ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sullim4 Posted November 16, 2009 Share Posted November 16, 2009 Jay Clocker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cash Posted November 16, 2009 Share Posted November 16, 2009 For the record, here are the official tiebreakers for draft position: 1. Strength of schedule 2. Coin flip Presumably they'll re-flip if the coin lands on edge. As for the draft itself, you never know for sure, but I'd guess the following teams will be looking to draft QBs: Cleveland (they hate both their current QBs) St. Louis Washington There are a few terrible teams that we probably won't have to compete with for QBs, either because they drafted one in the first round last year, or traded for one and gave him a giant contract with lots of guaranteed money: Detroit (Stafford) Kansas City (Cassel) Tampa Bay (Freeman) Then you've got the wild cards, who may or may not be looking for a QB in the first round. For these teams, it might just come down to who's there, i.e., they'll draft a QB if they think they're getting good value, but they won't reach for one: Tennessee (depends a lot on how Young finishes the season) Oakland (I think they'll pick Taylor Mays, but who knows?) San Francisco (also somewhat dependent on how Alex Smith plays the rest of the year) Also worth mentioning is Jacksonville, who'll probably pick behind us anyway, but in case they're in front of us, we should be pretty safe. They're still pretty happy with Garrard, and they drafted 2 OTs and signed 2 more last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cash Posted November 16, 2009 Share Posted November 16, 2009 Not that I thought the Bills would ever end up with a better record than the Panthers, but they did beat Carolina and presumably hold a tiebreaker advantage over them. It was nice to see Carolina win. San Fran owns Carolina's first round pick. They could very well be in the market for a QB, or at least more O-line help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
May Day 10 Posted November 16, 2009 Share Posted November 16, 2009 you can just see most of the bottom dwellers improve, while Buffalo is getting worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted November 16, 2009 Author Share Posted November 16, 2009 San Fran owns Carolina's first round pick. They could very well be in the market for a QB, or at least more O-line help. Thanks. They should have the ammo to move up if they want. I'm guessing they'll end up around 8-8; it'll be the same for Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewildrabbit Posted November 16, 2009 Share Posted November 16, 2009 And you think that because the Bills have a low round draft pick they will pick a player that is actually decent...doubtful This franchise without Bill Polian will never find another Bruce Smith with that #1 pick. This Bills front office and coaching staff could draft #1 overall for 10 years and maybe, maybe find one decent player,in other words. 8 out of the ten will be DB's Only took them how many tries to find Byrd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills_fan_in_raleigh Posted November 16, 2009 Share Posted November 16, 2009 And you think that because the Bills have a low round draft pick they will pick a player that is actually decent...doubtful This franchise without Bill Polian will never find another Bruce Smith with that #1 pick. This Bills front office and coaching staff could draft #1 overall for 10 years and maybe, maybe find one decent player,in other words. 8 out of the ten will be DB's Only took them how many tries to find Byrd? But they didnt waste a first round pick for him they took a situational player instead of a LT or DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrFishfinder Posted November 16, 2009 Share Posted November 16, 2009 Oh yay. Another 1st round gem like Maybin for next year. Maybe another Erik Flowers? Mike Williams? I read your post, and I agree that the Bills should draft a QB. Will they make a good choice, or will they end up with another bust like Flowers or Williams? What does the last 10 years indicate? I would love for them to draft Tebow. But I doubt they will draft a QB and I'm sorry to say that I doubt that this staff will make an intelligent choice, no matter what player or numeric position they draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UConn James Posted November 16, 2009 Share Posted November 16, 2009 Oh yay. Another 1st round gem like Maybin for next year. Maybe another Erik Flowers? Mike Williams? Only, at the current rate of losing, this one might cost $80M / ~$32M guaranteed. Don't quite get the people who root to get the #1 pick. It's just as good odds of finding a good player at #10-15 as #1-5, and it doesn't totally screw over the cap. Look how much MW cost, both in real dollars and who could've been signed with that unusable money. If you get the #1 pick, if there isn't a FOR-SURE player, you trade down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted November 16, 2009 Author Share Posted November 16, 2009 Only, at the current rate of losing, this one might cost $80M / ~$32M guaranteed. Don't quite get the people who root to get the #1 pick. It's just as good odds of finding a good player at #10-15 as #1-5, and it doesn't totally screw over the cap. Look how much MW cost, both in real dollars and who could've been signed with that unusable money. If you get the #1 pick, if there isn't a FOR-SURE player, you trade down. But sometimes there is a sure-fire player (although I don't know enough to say if that's the case next year). Carson Palmer, Payton Manning, and Eli Manning -- all were drafted #1 and the teams that got them are happy that they did. I'm not saying that there isn't a chance of a bust. Moreover, the Bills aren't going to get the #1 overall pick, so it's kind of a moot point. In general, better players are available earlier, all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted November 16, 2009 Author Share Posted November 16, 2009 I read your post, and I agree that the Bills should draft a QB. Will they make a good choice, or will they end up with another bust like Flowers or Williams? What does the last 10 years indicate? I would love for them to draft Tebow. But I doubt they will draft a QB and I'm sorry to say that I doubt that this staff will make an intelligent choice, no matter what player or numeric position they draft. I doubt that this staff will be there next year, although I confess that this just might be wishful thinking on my part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazed and Amuzed Posted November 16, 2009 Share Posted November 16, 2009 If we draft in the top 5 and the current regime is still here then Taylor Mays will be the pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IHFO Posted November 16, 2009 Share Posted November 16, 2009 a mckelvin-byrd-Mays-McGee secondary?!?!!!? CHAMPIONSHIP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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