Colts - Pats** GDT

[bills44]

Not sure what Bellichick's call has to do with the Bills, and not sure why he felt he had to gamble to that extent at that point in the game.

 

And if the Pats can't stop the Colts 60 yards from the end zone with the game on the line, well they better be content with polishing the Lombardys they own, because they're not going to be winning any more any time soon.

 

[bills44]

Actually I owe you a thank you.

I had turned the game off after that last Manning pick figuring the Pats O was about to grind out about 4 minutes minimum and essentially end the game, a sight which I had no interest in seeing. Had you not posted something that brought that thread back to the top of the Wall I wouldn't have turned it back on in time to catch the 4th down play and ensuing Colts TD.

So thank you.

 

no problem. I pretty much figured the game was over on 3 separate occasions in the 4th, but there was nothing better on TV, so I kept on watching.

[Simon]

And if the Pats can't stop the Colts 60 yards from the end zone with the game on the line, well they better be content with polishing the Lombardys they own, because they're not going to be winning any more any time soon.

 

He figured they had a better chance of Brady getting two yards than they did of stopping Peyton Manning in the 2:00 drill with 4 downs to play with. It's not an unreasonable bit of figuring.

[jad1]

But was it really worth giving up a legitimate chance to win the game just to pick up those 30-40 yards that Manning would probably have covered in about 40 seconds?

 

In other words, Manning has made Belichick his B word.

[silvermike]

He figured they had a better chance of Brady getting two yards than they did of stopping Peyton Manning in the 2:00 drill with 4 downs to play with. It's not an unreasonable bit of figuring.

 

I'd say that about sums it up. You can choose the Patriots offense vs. the Colts defense, needing 2 yards in one play, or the Patriots defense vs. the Colts offense, needing 60 yards in 2 minutes. I'd say the odds are at least even, and I can't argue with a coach who decides to take one play to win the game. I'm just glad it didn't work.

[TheLynchTrain]

if anybody has dvr, replay the postgame handshake again. Belicheck's skinhead bodyguard/assistant coach took out a cameraman with a crosscheck about 5 seconds after the handshake. Unreal. And unfazed he pushes another cameraman otta the way a few seconds later. Wonder if you can get fined for that?

[BuffOrange]

silvermike wins thread. Biggest mistake was the lack of decisiveness; ie they probably run on 3rd down if they know they're going for it ahead of time.

 

Really the backlash to this on espn shows you why coaches like Jauron make so many 'lower expected value' chicken decisions. This loss will be pinned on him 100%; where it would be 0% his fault if he had punted and lost. Which is stupid but whatever.

 

Also Manning is the only QB I've seen who manages the clock like a Madden expert. Run and milk the clock, run on 1st&goal, throw on 2nd. No doubt he runs on 3rd and takes his last time out if the 2nd&goal TD had been incomplete. Should be standard fare but it's not to 99% of guys. Just flawless.

[Lt. Dan's Revenge]

He may have been thinking that it wasn't that big of a disadvantage to defend a short field either. The Colts would have had more than ample time to gain another 30-40 yards as it was. And a FG was useless to the Colts.

 

Seriously? Are you really trying to sell the fact that it is somehow easier to defend 30 yards against a team down 6 with 3 timeouts left than 60-70 yards? Really?

 

He figured they had a better chance of Brady getting two yards than they did of stopping Peyton Manning in the 2:00 drill with 4 downs to play with. It's not an unreasonable bit of figuring.

 

Yes, actually it is unreasonable. I don't care who is trying to get the 2 yards, there are a number of things that can happen that will stop you from getting those two yards (i.e. a sack, incomplete pass, COMING UP SHORT, etc) which makes this an incredibly asinine decision. On the other hand, if you do punt like they should have, there are a number of things that can go right for your defense in those 60-70 yards between the end zone, such as a sack, a 3RD interception, big penalties, or a couple of things that lead to a turnover on downs and the end of the game. Anyone who seriously thinks that this was a logical coaching move needs to lay off the crack.

[Heels20X6]

silvermike wins thread. Biggest mistake was the lack of decisiveness; ie they probably run on 3rd down if they know they're going for it ahead of time.

 

Really the backlash to this on espn shows you why coaches like Jauron make so many 'lower expected value' chicken decisions. This loss will be pinned on him 100%; where it would be 0% his fault if he had punted and lost. Which is stupid but whatever.

 

Also Manning is the only QB I've seen who manages the clock like a Madden expert. Run and milk the clock, run on 1st&goal, throw on 2nd. No doubt he runs on 3rd and takes his last time out if the 2nd&goal TD had been incomplete. Should be standard fare but it's not to 99% of guys. Just flawless.

 

Did you see the end of the Jags-Jets game? The Jets give up a huge gain with under two minutes to go and no timeouts so they decide to let Jones-Drew run it in for the easy TD so they can get the ball back with a minute or so remaining. Jones-Drew runs for the first down and then takes the knee on the 1!!!! BRILLIANT!! Jags run out the clock and kick the game-winning field goal with no time remaining.

 

You think anyone on this team has the smarts to do that?

[Sisyphean Bills]

Seriously? Are you really trying to sell the fact that it is somehow easier to defend 30 yards against a team down 6 with 3 timeouts left than 60-70 yards? Really?

Not trying to "sell" anything, because I don't need to "sell" anything. Merely conjecturing as to what BB may have been thinking in that situation; but, I see it went right over your head. But, by all means, keep posturing and throwing around your opinions and insults. Especially to moderators. It works well, I hear.

[bills44]

silvermike wins thread. Biggest mistake was the lack of decisiveness; ie they probably run on 3rd down if they know they're going for it ahead of time.

 

why? a run (assuming that the runner stays inbounds) only takes the clock down to the 2:00 warning. The Colts still had a TO in their pocket. If the 4th down conversion is successful, the game, for all intents and purposes, is over, regardless of whether the 3rd down play was a pass or run.

[jad1]

silvermike wins thread. Biggest mistake was the lack of decisiveness; ie they probably run on 3rd down if they know they're going for it ahead of time.

 

Really the backlash to this on espn shows you why coaches like Jauron make so many 'lower expected value' chicken decisions. This loss will be pinned on him 100%; where it would be 0% his fault if he had punted and lost. Which is stupid but whatever.

 

Also Manning is the only QB I've seen who manages the clock like a Madden expert. Run and milk the clock, run on 1st&goal, throw on 2nd. No doubt he runs on 3rd and takes his last time out if the 2nd&goal TD had been incomplete. Should be standard fare but it's not to 99% of guys. Just flawless.

 

If the Pats punted the ball, it would still be expected that they win the game. If they give up the touchdown, the story is that the Pats defense isn't strong enough to win the AFC. That's still on Bellichick and his team.

 

Giving up a 17 point lead, even if they punted, isn't a victimless crime.

 

That 3rd down pass you mention was almost a pick six. It showed that Indy was sitting on the short routes. It should have lowered the odds in Bellichick's mind for making the 4th and 2.

 

In the end, Rodney Harrison's commentary was on target. The Pats young defense now knows that their coach has no faith in them. Along with the loss, it's another weight for the players have to carry.

[Simon]

Did you see the end of the Jags-Jets game? The Jets give up a huge gain with under two minutes to go and no timeouts so they decide to let Jones-Drew run it in for the easy TD so they can get the ball back with a minute or so remaining. Jones-Drew runs for the first down and then takes the knee on the 1!!!! BRILLIANT!! Jags run out the clock and kick the game-winning field goal with no time remaining.

 

You think anyone on this team has the smarts to do that?

I didn't see that one. Smart play and good game awareness. Believe it or not I once stopped short of the goalline on a long pick return when we were only up one with about a minute to play. You should have seen my sideline losing their collective minds when I was just standing there at the two waiting for somebody to catch up to me before I laid down.

As for tonight's game, I really thought Belichik should have called a timeout with 1:00 left and let the Colts score from the 1.

[BuffOrange]

why? a run (assuming that the runner stays inbounds) only takes the clock down to the 2:00 warning. The Colts still had a TO in their pocket. If the 4th down conversion is successful, the game, for all intents and purposes, is over, regardless of whether the 3rd down play was a pass or run.

 

Yah, the clock doesn't matter in that spot. It makes some sense to run when you know you have 2 plays for 2 yards though.

[Simon]

Yah, the clock doesn't matter in that spot. It makes some sense to run when you know you have 2 plays for 2 yards though.

For most teams it makes sense but not necessarily for the Pats.

You've got to coach your own team, not everybody else's.

[Lt. Dan's Revenge]

Not trying to "sell" anything, because I don't need to "sell" anything. Merely conjecturing as to what BB may have been thinking in that situation; but, I see it went right over your head. But, by all means, keep posturing and throwing around your opinions and insults. Especially to moderators. It works well, I hear.

 

How exactly was I posturing and throwing around insults....? You get an opinion questioned, and that is to be considered a threat or something to a moderator? Interesting. An answer to the question I was posing in response to your post about the advantages of defending a short field surely would have sufficed.

[BuffOrange]

If the Pats punted the ball, it would still be expected that they win the game. If they give up the touchdown, the story is that the Pats defense isn't strong enough to win the AFC. That's still on Bellichick and his team.

 

Giving up a 17 point lead, even if they punted, isn't a victimless crime.

 

That 3rd down pass you mention was almost a pick six. It showed that Indy was sitting on the short routes. It should have lowered the odds in Bellichick's mind for making the 4th and 2.

 

In the end, Rodney Harrison's commentary was on target. The Pats young defense now knows that their coach has no faith in them. Along with the loss, it's another weight for the players have to carry.

 

Gah, if you think the heat on the coach would be remotely comparable with a punt&loss then I don't know what to tell you.

[Lt. Dan's Revenge]

Gah, if you think the heat on the coach would be remotely comparable with a punt&loss then I don't know what to tell you.

 

+1.

[BuffOrange]

Look at it this way:

 

% of time that Colts score if you punt

vs

(% of time Colts stop you on 4th and 2) x (% of time Colts score if they take over on downs)

 

 

Meh, kinda close maybe but I think BB was right. Certainly not terrible. %'s would seem to indicate it's correct even though no other coach would do it. But it's fun for media donkeys to refer to the conventional/conservative call as "the percentage play" when they have no clue whatsoever what the percentages are.

[Simon]

An answer to the question I was posing in response to your post about the advantages of defending a short field surely would have sufficed.

Yeah, if he had ever actually said there was an advantage to defending a short field. Which he didn't. You've now put those words in his mouth twice and are asking him to explain a statement that only you have made?