Horrible Drafts-why our FO is to blame for suckitude..

[Boatdrinks]

We all like to rail on John Guy for his parade of free-agent bombs on One Bills Drive. Deservedly so:his track record is abysmal and it is amazing he is still employed. But while the right free agent additions can take a team to the "next level", it is an expensive proposition. The real separation from pretender to contender is made via the draft. A little glimpse into draft history reveals the reason for our Bills' seemingly perpetual wheel spinning of what is now surely a playoff free decade. We'll go back to 2000 up to the 2004 draft,first 3 players selected. That will leave out obvious oversights by nearly all teams (Tom Brady, etc) Some were just poor judgments of talent, character, or trades for players no longer here. The blunders are astounding in some cases, but this is why we have not even achieved mediocrity.CAPS =still w/Bills

 

2000 Bills selections #26 Erik Flowers ,#58 Travares tillman, #89 Corey Moore

Passed on: Keith Bulluck (#30), Marvel Smith(#38) Anthony Becht(#27), Darwin Walker(#71) Na'il Diggs(#98)

2001 Bills selections #21 Nate Clements, #46 AARON SCHOBEL #58 Travis Henry

Passed on: Ryan Pickett(#29) Reggie Wayne(#30) Todd Heap(#31) Drew Brees(#32) Matt Light(#48)

2002 Bills selections #4 Mike Williams, #36 JOSH REED, #61 RYAN DENNEY

Passed on: Bryant McKinnie(#7)John Henderson(#9),Dwight Freeney (#11) Albert Haynesworth(#15) Charles Grant (#25)LeCharles Bentley(#44)

2003 Bills selections #13 to NE for D Bledsoe(Ty Warren), #23 Willis McGahee, #48 CHRIS KELSAY

Could have had with 13th pick- Troy Polomalu (#16),Calvin Pace (#18)/Passed on: Dallas Clark (#24), Anquan Boldin (#54), Osi Umenyiora (#56)

2004 Bills selections: #13 LEE EVANS, #22 J.P. Losman,(#43 to Dallas/ Julius Jones) #74 Tim Anderson

Passed on Tommie Harris (#14), Vince Wilfork(#21), Steven Jackson (#24), Benjamin Watson (#32),Jake Grove (#45),Max Starks (#75)

[Red]

We all like to rail on John Guy for his parade of free-agent bombs on One Bills Drive. Deservedly so:his track record is abysmal and it is amazing he is still employed. But while the right free agent additions can take a team to the "next level", it is an expensive proposition. The real separation from pretender to contender is made via the draft. A little glimpse into draft history reveals the reason for our Bills' seemingly perpetual wheel spinning of what is now surely a playoff free decade. We'll go back to 2000 up to the 2004 draft,first 3 players selected. That will leave out obvious oversights by nearly all teams (Tom Brady, etc) Some were just poor judgments of talent, character, or trades for players no longer here. The blunders are astounding in some cases, but this is why we have not even achieved mediocrity.CAPS =still w/Bills

 

2000 Bills selections #26 Erik Flowers ,#58 Travares tillman, #89 Corey Moore

Passed on: Keith Bulluck (#30), Marvel Smith(#38) Anthony Becht(#27), Darwin Walker(#71) Na'il Diggs(#98)

2001 Bills selections #21 Nate Clements, #46 AARON SCHOBEL #58 Travis Henry

Passed on: Ryan Pickett(#29) Reggie Wayne(#30) Todd Heap(#31) Drew Brees(#32) Matt Light(#48)

2002 Bills selections #4 Mike Williams, #36 JOSH REED, #61 RYAN DENNEY

Passed on: Bryant McKinnie(#7)John Henderson(#9),Dwight Freeney (#11) Albert Haynesworth(#15) Charles Grant (#25)LeCharles Bentley(#44)

2003 Bills selections #13 to NE for D Bledsoe(Ty Warren), #23 Willis McGahee, #48 CHRIS KELSAY

Could have had with 13th pick- Troy Polomalu (#16),Calvin Pace (#18)/Passed on: Dallas Clark (#24), Anquan Boldin (#54), Osi Umenyiora (#56)

 

 

2004 Bills selections: #13 LEE EVANS, #22 J.P. Losman,(#43 to Dallas/ Julius Jones) #74 Tim Anderson

Passed on Tommie Harris (#14), Vince Wilfork(#21), Steven Jackson (#24), Benjamin Watson (#32),Jake Grove (#45),Max Starks (#75)

 

 

Hey bud- I already covered this in another post.

 

Between 2000-2005, the Bills have retained all of 6 out of 50 draft picks.

[Boatdrinks]

Hey bud- I already covered this in another post.

 

Between 2000-2005, the Bills have retained all of 6 out of 50 draft picks.

 

 

Well, I didn't see it. But our continual mediocrity merits a look at this subject. While the numbers are fascinating, (and thoroughly disgusting for a professional team) the names really got me interested when I checked the draft history. It's amazing the players that were available when those selections were made. I mean, a good front office is going to miss once in awhile. But we missed out on sometimes 4 or 5 top quality players that were taken right around our picks. That is a sign of serious incompetence in this organization.

[b stein 22]

This is what happens when you have ralph's daughter trying to pick good players and Failing to do so

[WVUFootball29]

This is what happens when you have ralph's daughter trying to pick good players and Failing to do so

 

bingo, we have a winner.

[Fezmid]

2001 Bills selections #21 Nate Clements, #46 AARON SCHOBEL #58 Travis Henry

Passed on: Ryan Pickett(#29) Reggie Wayne(#30) Todd Heap(#31) Drew Brees(#32) Matt Light(#48)

2002 Bills selections #4 Mike Williams, #36 JOSH REED, #61 RYAN DENNEY

Passed on: Bryant McKinnie(#7)John Henderson(#9),Dwight Freeney (#11) Albert Haynesworth(#15) Charles Grant (#25)LeCharles Bentley(#44)

2003 Bills selections #13 to NE for D Bledsoe(Ty Warren), #23 Willis McGahee, #48 CHRIS KELSAY

Could have had with 13th pick- Troy Polomalu (#16),Calvin Pace (#18)/Passed on: Dallas Clark (#24), Anquan Boldin (#54), Osi Umenyiora (#56)

2004 Bills selections: #13 LEE EVANS, #22 J.P. Losman,(#43 to Dallas/ Julius Jones) #74 Tim Anderson

Passed on Tommie Harris (#14), Vince Wilfork(#21), Steven Jackson (#24), Benjamin Watson (#32),Jake Grove (#45),Max Starks (#75)

 

In 2000, we had a lame duck drafting, ready to pick up his tent and fly to SD.

 

In 2001, we had a good draft -- Clements became the highest paid corner in the league, Schobel is still with the team and playing at a high level (see how we fell apart once again once he was out of the game? Kinda like we were flying high until he was injured last year), and Henry turned out to be a very good HB until the drug thing... But I believe we traded him for a pick, right?

 

In 2002, we missed on our first pick -- but it was hardly a "risky" pick. Sometimes these things happen. Reed and Denney are still on the team. Half those people you listed would NEVER have been selected with the 4th overall pick either -- and Buffalo reportedly tried trading out of the spot but found no takers.

 

In 2003, we drafted Willis - a dangerous pick, but we ended up getting some years out of him and a draft pick when we traded him (Edwards - still on the team, for now), and Kelsay is still on the team as well - and has been looking decent this year too.

 

I'm failing to see how our drafts were "terrible," based on your post. It's easy to cherry pick the big names after the fact -- but it's also telling that, for example, you could only find 6 players in the top 75 picks in 2004 that Buffalo should've picked. The draft is a crap shoot. And bad teams make it even worse by destroying players, IMHO (ie: Losman, Edwards, and every other QB since Kelly).

[Brandon]

Honestly, I don't think our drafts have been particularly bad. The front office has failed to find elite difference makers, but they have found a good number of solid contributors in every round. I don't think they're the best in the league or anything, but the college scouting staff seems fairly low on the list of problem areas, IMO. The fact that they've retained relatively few of their draftees over the years is a testament both to the cheapness of the front office and the lack of stability in the coaching staff and the tendency of new staffs to clean house.

 

The pro personnel department under John Guy? That IS a total mess, I'll grant you that.

[DanInSouthBuffalo]

The pro personnel department under John Guy? That IS a total mess, I'll grant you that.

 

The REAL problem + the limited amount of $$$ to work with.

[BuffaloRebound]

Honestly, I don't think our drafts have been particularly bad. The front office has failed to find elite difference makers, but they have found a good number of solid contributors in every round. I don't think they're the best in the league or anything, but the college scouting staff seems fairly low on the list of problem areas, IMO. The fact that they've retained relatively few of their draftees over the years is a testament both to the cheapness of the front office and the lack of stability in the coaching staff and the tendency of new staffs to clean house.

 

The pro personnel department under John Guy? That IS a total mess, I'll grant you that.

 

Good post.

 

I'll add that when you don't have good QB play, a good Offensive Line, or a good pass rush, everything else is just polishing a turd. Donahoe, Levy, and Brandon have proven they don't know how to build a winning team, and it all floats down-hill from that.

[Saint Doug]

How about this: perhaps the horrendous coaching and leadership we've had in the last 10+ years has squandered these picks' talent and failed to develop them into solid NFL players? Maybe these players we "missed" on would've just settled into the career graveyard we have here at OBD if we had drafted them.

[Boatdrinks]

[quote name='Fezmid' date='Nov 1 2009, 10:16 PM' post='1621559'

 

 

I'm failing to see how our drafts were "terrible," based on your post. It's easy to cherry pick the big names after the fact -- but it's also telling that, for example, you could only find 6 players in the top 75 picks in 2004 that Buffalo should've picked. The draft is a crap shoot. And bad teams make it even worse by destroying players, IMHO (ie: Losman, Edwards, and every other QB since Kelly).

 

What you are failing to see is the bigger picture. There were plenty of other names, I just gave a condensed version, primarily of players drafted "around" our pick #'s and that were available. It's not like those were the only other good choices, just some major notables. Pointing out that Josh reed and Ryan Denney are still on the team furthers my point. Those are hardly elite players, or even solid starters in the case of Denney. Reed has grown into a dependable third WR, that's all. What you missed as well is that a pick no longer with your team is a wasted pick. A roster spot to fill through other , more expensive means for the quality. Not the stuff of which champions are made. Also a lack of foresight, drafting WR's and DB's,ignoring the DL and OL. Attempting to build your team from outside in, not inside out. Big men on both lines are what the good teams build around. Keep telling yourself that the draft is a crapshoot, though and excusing the incompetence. Good GM's draft consistently well. I doubt Bill Polian's draft board is a dart board. You tip your hand when you say we "destroyed" JP Losman or Trent Edwards. They simply aren't very good. JP is in the UFL right now, I think. Talent wins out. Some like yourself try to make this game more complicated than it is. There's a reason why a Tom Brady doesn't happen every year. The first 3 rounds of the draft are no crapshoot. They are the building blocks of your team. GM's get paid big bucks to be right more often than not.The Colts were a joke of a team when they drafted Peyton Manning. They did not "destroy" him. Last season, almost our entire starting OL was drafted by other teams. A hideous track record however you slice it and clearly among the worst in the NFL.

[Boatdrinks]

Honestly, I don't think our drafts have been particularly bad. The front office has failed to find elite difference makers, but they have found a good number of solid contributors in every round. I don't think they're the best in the league or anything, but the college scouting staff seems fairly low on the list of problem areas, IMO.

 

 

You couldn't be further off base. That is EXACTLY why they are terrible.. No elite difference makers drafting relatively high year in and year out. Solid contributors in later rounds? Yes, though that is the "crapshoot" portion of the draft. The first three rounds had better yield difference makers. It clearly hasn't. We used to have an elite level scouting staff under Bill Polian, and AJ Smith. We are obviously among the worst in the league now. Hardly any drafted elite level talents. Most of our "name "players are free agents. Take a look at rosters of good teams and see how many of their better players were drafted by them. The difference is glaring.

[Boatdrinks]

How about this: perhaps the horrendous coaching and leadership we've had in the last 10+ years has squandered these picks' talent and failed to develop them into solid NFL players? Maybe these players we "missed" on would've just settled into the career graveyard we have here at OBD if we had drafted them.

 

 

Let's be serious. Everyone loves focusing on the intangibles like "leadership". Talent wins games. It's more important than coaching. Football is a simple game that we love to make complicated. Kick the ass of the guy in front of you, and you'll win a lot of games. Bill Belichick was a career losing head coach until he had Tom Brady. We've chosen bad head coaches, but that is the FO as well. Look at all the young coaches winning in the league. You don't need a big name head coach. You do need a clue how to build a winning team. And some luck. We just don't have nearly enough good players to build around do to squandered draft picks that are no longer on our roster, and we're constantly trying to patch holes. We've drafted exactly ONE Pro Bowl OL since 1987, and have been looking for a good tight end since the mid 90's. You don't think Jeremy Shockey, Todd Heap, or Dallas Clark would have been any good, just because they were playing in Buffalo?

[Orton's Arm]

In 2001, we had a good draft -- Clements became the highest paid corner in the league, Schobel is still with the team and playing at a high level (see how we fell apart once again once he was out of the game? Kinda like we were flying high until he was injured last year), and Henry turned out to be a very good HB until the drug thing... But I believe we traded him for a pick, right?

 

The 2001 draft was a tactical victory, but not a strategic victory. The tactical victory side of it is the part you mentioned: Clements, Schobel, and (for a while) Henry had good to very good careers. But the Henry pick was a 2nd round draft choice to try to upgrade the RB position, when we already had Antowain Smith. After the Bills took Henry, they released Smith; getting nothing in return. The Bills should have stuck with Smith; and should have used that second round pick on a guy at a position of greater need. For example, on an offensive lineman who could have given us ten solid but unspectacular years.

 

Nate Clements was a tactical victory, but a strategic defeat. The reason why the Bills took a CB in the first round of 2001 was because the plan was to let Antoine Winfield go first contract and out. Winfield was a very successful CB who'd been taken in the first round a few years earlier. TD should have known that, if whatever thought process he used would result in letting Winfield go first contract and out, it would also result in letting Clements go first contract and out when his time came.

 

Clements' contract expired when TD was still the GM. Marv squeezed an extra year out of him with the franchise tag, but ultimately that was yet another case of using a first round pick on a CB destined to leave after his first contract. Are good teams built by letting their most successful first round picks go first contract and out?

In 2002, we missed on our first pick -- but it was hardly a "risky" pick.

I'm not sure if I agree with that. The teams with the best draft track records place a heavy emphasis on "football character"--passion for the game, work ethic, and mental toughness. All traits Mike Williams lacked. Would those successful drafting teams have been able to figure out that he lacked those traits, prior to the draft? I don't know the answer to that. But I did notice a general tendency on TD's part to place a significantly heavier emphasis on physical traits than some other teams did; while de-emphasizing the mental and character side of the equation.

In 2003, we drafted Willis - a dangerous pick, but we ended up getting some years out of him and a draft pick when we traded him (Edwards - still on the team, for now), and Kelsay is still on the team as well - and has been looking decent this year too.

McGahee was another strategic error--the team should not have addressed the RB position--again!--when there were other holes to fill. There was an offensive lineman that Bill from NYC wanted, who went a few picks after McGahee. That guy went on to have a very good career; while the Bills' line is still struggling.

 

We got two third round picks for McGahee. According to the draft value chart, the 15th pick in the 2nd round is less than half as valuable as the 15th pick in the first. And the 15th pick in the 3rd round is less than half as valuable as the 15th pick in the second. Turning a first round pick into two 3rd rounders will typically cause you to lose more than half your draft day value.

The draft is a crap shoot.

I'm not sure exactly what you mean by that. But if you're implying that differences in teams' draft-day outcomes are entirely attributable to luck, then I'd strongly disagree. While there's certainly a strong element of random variation involved, the draft will, over time, reward those teams which are the most intelligent and disciplined in their player evaluation and selection process. A Bill Polian will, on average, get you significantly better results on draft day than will a Matt Millen.

And bad teams make it even worse by destroying players, IMHO (ie: Losman, Edwards, and every other QB since Kelly).

I'll grant that Buffalo hasn't been a first-rate destination for QBs, because of the lack of an offensive line (see above), bad coaching, and other factors. But let's be real here: it's not like the only thing standing between Todd Collins, Billy Joe Hobart, or J.P. Losman and the Hall of Fame was the Bills' organizational incompetence. Those guys would have failed or been relegated to backup roles on just about any team for which they played. (Not that Hobart or Losman would necessarily have made the final roster.)

[billsfan714]

2005-Roscoe Parrish in the 2nd, the midget receiver, a few picks later, Vincent Jackson 6'5 Wr who had a ton of TDS in college and had a great combine. Another Donohoe gem.

[Thoner7]

Fast forwards to 2009.

 

Maybin > Orakpo !? ........

 

The problems still exist

[Fezmid]

What you missed as well is that a pick no longer with your team is a wasted pick. A roster spot to fill through other , more expensive means for the quality.

How can you say not re-signing a player is just like making a bad draft move......????

 

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree (as some others disagree with you as well).

[Kipers Hair]

I'm failing to see how our drafts were "terrible," based on your post. It's easy to cherry pick the big names after the fact -- but it's also telling that, for example, you could only find 6 players in the top 75 picks in 2004 that Buffalo should've picked. The draft is a crap shoot. And bad teams make it even worse by destroying players, IMHO (ie: Losman, Edwards, and every other QB since Kelly).

Wow - this was a who cares post until you gave your thoughts on the picks...With the exception of the Clements and Shobel years - the Bills sucked as bad as you possibly could. No arguments - bad - missed obvious selections. Whomever pointed to Ralphs kid was probably right, but I still see our futility and head scratching choices when I would think 1/2 the people on this board would have fared better....

[Boatdrinks]

How can you say not re-signing a player is just like making a bad draft move......????

 

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree (as some others disagree with you as well).

 

 

It's simple. You don't let your best players get away, you re-sign them. You are going to lose some to FA, but you tend to keep the really important ones. There is a reason why quality LT's, QB's, DL's are rare breeds on the free agent market. Teams usu. don't let them get away. Good skill position players tend to be more available as they are easier to find in the draft. They also tend to be the most overpaid in FA for the talent level. So a drafted player not re-signed after their rookie deal is essentially a wasted pick. You need to find quality starters in rounds 1-3.

[Fezmid]

It's simple. You don't let your best players get away, you re-sign them. You are going to lose some to FA, but you tend to keep the really important ones. There is a reason why quality LT's, QB's, DL's are rare breeds on the free agent market. Teams usu. don't let them get away. Good skill position players tend to be more available as they are easier to find in the draft. They also tend to be the most overpaid in FA for the talent level. So a drafted player not re-signed after their rookie deal is essentially a wasted pick. You need to find quality starters in rounds 1-3.

Your comparing drafting to front office signings... They're different beasts.